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There is always someone welcoming their new overlords.
@chewkw, if you were around in the 1930's would you have been happy to let Germany invade and control the whole of Europe as it "would have saved lives" not to declare war on Germany?
The same in China too, as Japan perpetrated huge atrocities?
Give Ukraine what it needs and let them have at it.
This, but there is a growing issue of willing and able bodies. And they can't be pulled out of a factory.
I get the interest in kit, munitions and so forth but to hold ground you need people. That's an immutable bottom line in warfare.
That's a harder conversation to have due to the inconsistency in reporting, open source information and widespread propaganda.
It makes it safer for the armchair observers to focus on hard data like kit & munitions as that's quantifiable.
This, but there is a growing issue of willing and able bodies.
This isn't a uniquely Ukrainian issue.
I remember the thread on here about if we were to be conscripted and how many people here said they would refuse to fight, and this is a forum dominated by men of fighting age. There will come a point where all those who have the courage to stand up and fight have joined up and they start running into conscription issues. Russia has less of a problem here as they have methods of getting people to fight which would not be permitted elsewhere
This isn’t a uniquely Ukrainian issue.
I remember the thread on here about if we were to be conscripted and how many people here said they would refuse to fight, and this is a forum dominated by men of fighting age. There will come a point where all those who have the courage to stand up and fight have joined up and they start running into conscription issues. Russia has less of a problem here as they have methods of getting people to fight which would not be permitted elsewhere
I know, volunteer/draft/conscription, whatever you're want to call it is a standard problem within defence circles. Bodies to fill positions is an eternal problem that in peacetime is never solved, let alone whilst under attack.
The problems for UKR are already having an impact. There's quite a few videos and reports going around various social media platforms.
Not sure how much is being suppressed or not reported in, but the problems are there already and some of the measures compelling people to serve would be frowned upon on an ordinary day.
I don't blame anyone for not wanting to fight in that meat grinder.
The inevitable:
Moscow warns West after Ukraine told it can hit Russia with Western weapons
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceqq2zn3zw6o
Got to almost admire the big, brass balls:
A Kremlin spokesman said, "They are in every possible way provoking Ukraine to continue this senseless war."
I get the interest in kit, munitions and so forth but to hold ground you need people. That’s an immutable bottom line in warfare.
There are many reasons for that lack of people, but it doesn't change the bottom line:
Ukraine needs materiel to give to people, unless Ukraine is happy to wave people off in museum pieces, while arming them with museum pieces fitted with airsoft weapon sights
The media in the last six months has been full of stories about a lack of munitions for Ukraine and few volunteers will want to fight what they see as an ill-equipped lost cause. I really can't blame them, but a lack of people leads to a lack of rotations out for those who do serve and service in Ukraine's military is currently open-ended, which doesn't give people anything to look forward to. It only adds more reasons to not enlist in the first place and the cycle goes on. And then you add the growing numbers of deceased and injured who do return...
Ukraine's politicians haven't helped the situation by dithering. Drafting civilians was called for in February 2022 and the laws have only just been passed. Put an end date on service and get recruiting now that aid is on the way so that the recruits have decent kit.
You can rewrite those paragraphs ^^ and substitute "Russia" for "Ukraine" and you wouldn't be too far off the truth, which is that this war has become a slogfest. It's the materiel that is Ukraine's force-multiplier while they're outnumbered 2:1. Estimates in a few frontline areas are that Russia is on the wrong end of an 8:1 disadvantage
I don’t blame anyone for not wanting to fight in that meat grinder.
I couldn't agree more and the truth is that you can't train the volunteers/conscripts/whatever that you don't have.
Give Ukraine what it needs and let them have at it.
More and more politicians in NATO countries are coming around to this and maybe we'll see frontline conditions ease as more Ukrainians are encouraged by getting materiel and a free rein in its use, rather than discouraged. The last six months have been a huge problem and Ukraine is now at an inflection point because the next six months will see US elections followed closely by winter. Ukraine needs to get busy recruiting and training
This was the thread.
I'll guess that whatever our age, our demographic mostly isn't the one for fighting. That's a job for other people's kids.
This was the thread.
It was interesting how that quickly descended into Tory-bashing with hardly anyone really considering that it was the right to vote them out if we wanted to that we'd be fighting for.
Ultimately none of the rights we have in this country are god-given, elected leaders, a free press, an independent judiciary just wouldn't exist without some people being willing to risk their lives to keep them so. Thankfully our grandparents did was what was needed when push came to shove, can those who said they wouldn't fight look themselves in the eye and say they'll just leave it to others to do it, or would rather we caved in to live under Putin's regime?
The Ukrainians appear to have just enough men with the backbone required to stand up for themselves but how different are the rest of them to those of us on here? How long can their army keep recruiting?
Would I fight if I had to? I like to think I would, but it would be a scary thing to commit to, would self-preservation kick in and see me head off to New Zealand instead of doing what was right? I honestly can't say but I hope I would have the courage to do it
this is a forum dominated by men of fighting age.
If that were true there'd be much less political threads and spats. The problem with this place is too many bored, over-medicated, middle-aged men with time in their hands makes for bad mix.
Nobody truly say what they'd do if faced with a similar situation with any degree of certainty, it's an alien concept for most in the UK with the only frame of reference being third hand sources like movies and media.
Self-preservation is a strong instinct so can fully understand why Ukrainian men might be trying to avoid fighting.
I don't agree with conscription, but I understand the necessity.
Slightly surprising that they weren't given approval with a delay till announcement giving tactical suprise.
too many bored, over-medicated, middle-aged men
That sort of comment says a lot more about you than it does anybody else..................
too many bored, over-medicated, middle-aged men
Don't forget overweight.
That sort of comment says a lot more about you than it does anybody else………………
He's not wrong though.
Don’t forget overweight.
I did feel a little under represented until you posted that.👍😁
Nobody truly say what they’d do if faced with a similar situation with any degree of certainty, it’s an alien concept for most in the UK with the only frame of reference being third hand sources like movies and media.
That certainly applies to me. Id like to think id do the "right thing" (even that can mean different things to different people) but in likelihood if I were of an age to be conscripted I'd probably wait till I was forced to fight rather than volunteer.
If a member of my family had been killed by a belligerent state that might change everything in my head though. I just don't know.
As Mandalorian says, I don't think most of us know how we would react till it happened.
As Mandalorian says, I don’t think most of us know how we would react till it happened.
Strangely, the most patriotic of folk often know exactly how they'll react https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-avoided-the-military-draft-which-was-common-at-the-time-vietnam-war-2018-12?op=1
Strangely, the most patriotic of folk often know exactly how they’ll react
Everyone's a gangster until it's time to do gangster shit.
The gangster shit:
Ukraine has been given the go ahead for strikes into Russia. Russia has also said that if F16's being used by Ukraine are in NATO countries then they're legitimate targets. Could be a pretty scary escalation.
Russia has said a lot of things 🤷♂️
Part of me thinks that starting on NATO might end things somewhat quickly...
Is that statement aimed at deterring Ukraine from baseing the F16 outside of Ukraine territory and within a NATO member state?
Alleging that they would be willing to hit an airbase sheltering an F16 if it was being used in the defence of Ukraine itself
Bold and somewhat stupid thing to say iny armchair general viewpoint
Can't believe I'm defending Russia here, but it seems fair enough to target bases from which enemy aircraft are launching to attack you.
Ukraine has said they'd store aircraft at foreign bases, to keep them safe until needed to e.g. replace damaged aircraft.
Scratch one SU-57, Russian Air Defense let a sub-sonic kamikaze drone putter along through over 600KM through Russian airspace and hit one of it's precious, rare 5th gen fighters.
First 5th gen lost to enemy action ever, that's got to smart.
They do seem to be grinding away at any radar / air defense quite well.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1800179673076502789?t=47wteL_rNjNHNeVZnTuipw&s=19
bikesandboots
Full Member
Can’t believe I’m defending Russia here, but it seems fair enough to target bases from which enemy aircraft are launching to attack you.
I see what you are saying and this isn't a dig at you mate. They (Russia) just have to deal with the consequences is all.
I suspect Putin knows Poland, forget NATO for a second, is more than able to give Russia a bloody noise in response.
I think he won't call their bluff as it's not a bluff.
it seems fair enough to target bases from which enemy aircraft are launching to attack you.
Just to be clear for anyone reading, that was a general statement. There is no suggestion by anyone that Ukraine is basing aircraft outside its territory for use in attacking Russia.
Can’t believe I’m defending Russia here, but it seems fair enough to target bases from which enemy aircraft are launching to attack you.
Russia knows its a completely empty threat, because on a practical level, the massive air defense all along the borders with Russia and Belarus, means any attempt would be pointless and embarrassing. So its an easy threat to make, for the international points scored, knowing they would never act on it. Just like they said the same over US aid going through Poland, Storm Shadow use, ATACMS etc etc. Russia has also been incredibly careful not to directly poke NATO over this conflict. They are aware of the consequences.
Just to be clear for anyone reading, that was a general statement. There is no suggestion by anyone that Ukraine is basing aircraft outside its territory for use in attacking Russia.
Sorry yes I read your post as Russia targeting Non-Ukrainian reserve F16 storage bases. Not operational bases outside Ukraine as I cant see that happening, as just as my post above, equally NATO is being very careful not to provoke Russia whilst slowly ramping support.
I suspect Putin knows Poland, forget NATO for a second, is more than able to give Russia a bloody noise in response.
Yes, the 486 (!) HIMARS launchers Poland have ordered, in addition to current stocks, compared to the 40-50 Ukraine are currently using gives you an idea of the scale of Poland's intention to be more than capable of dealing with Russian aggression, aside from NATO support. That level of deterrence means it will never happen thankfully.
Geopolitics: Putins "long game" of just lobbing missiles into Ukraine as the rest of the world ties itself in knots with elections and political wrangling at country, EU level. Then there is BRICS and russian military support for BRICS members and back to the 13 days missile crisis scenario potentially (or am I being a bit over dramatic?)
Macron dissolves parliament and an election and as a staunch Ukraine supporter it looks like he is set for a big defeat and LePen will do well. How do you think this bodes for Ukraine?
Biden, Sunak, Macron...potential for a big change after the elections... Has Starmer offered any position on this at all?
(Nice to see this thread back on the front page imho).
I've read various takes on Macron's move and I've come away thinking he may have actually played a slight blinder.
Le Pen is basically where UKIP were in 2010-2015 when they used to do very well in the UK EU elections as they were seem as a 'safe' protest vote to poke the sitting government in the eye. Regardless of the fact that their MEP's once installed were largely incompetent, lazy expenses-hoovers.
Like UKIP they benefit hugely from never having had to actually govern so they can promise the earth and snipe from the sidelines without having a record to defend.
He's basically called the electorate's bluff and said 'so, do you really think you want this lot in charge then?'
If the FN end up with a parliamentary majority they will then actually have to govern and, come the next presidential election will have a record to be judged on and by that point Macron is betting that the electorate will want the adults back in charge.
If they don't do well then they loose their 'we have a mandate, Macron is a dead duck, we are the true voice of France' shtick they'd otherwise be beating him with for the next few years.
It's a gamble by any measure but in the situation he was in and in terms of keeping the presidency and executive power out of the hands of the (Russia funded) far right, it might just work.
I’ve read various takes on Macron’s move and I’ve come away thinking he may have actually played a slight blinder
I don't think that he has a choice, the European voting system in France was changed a few years ago to simplify things for the electorate. As such it's become an unofficial referendum and when combined with a minority government and rumoured votes of no confidence, he's in a bind.
It's too early to say whether the overall European vote will effect policy on either defence or Ukraine, but it's certainly going to effect the budget for such things. The right is currently too fragmented to pull in any one direction
President Biden is gradually loosening the rules on supplying materiel to Ukraine.
As well as allowing a limited use of US weapons inside Russia's international borders, he's also likely to allow US training and weapons to go to Ukraine's Azov Brigade, which has been sanctioned by the US for 10 years or more on human rights grounds
"After thorough review, Ukraine's 12th Special Forces Azov Brigade passed Leahy vetting as carried out by the U.S. Department of State" https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/10/azov-brigade-ukraine-us-weapons/ Google the quote for accessible reporting on the story
To be fair the Azov brigade of 2024 is not the Azov brigade of 2014.
Not pretending they're choirboys but they have worked hard since 2014 to purge the less savoury elements from their structures, they also fought like tigers at the Azovstahl siege so are basically heros to most of Ukraine now.
For those who may be swayed by carping and pearl clutching from Russian outriders regarding this, a brief reminder that Russian maintains an avowedly and openly neo-Nazi formation and, unlike Ukraine, has made zero efforts to reform them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusich_Group
Hopefully this can be made to work.
A flurry of new initiatives from the US and its allies looks like an attempt to Trump-proof Ukraine's lifeline
Hopefully this can be made to work.
There's a way to go unfortunately, from the CNN item ^^
Relentless Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have destroyed half of Kyiv’s electricity production capacity, the report found, underscoring why already, in mid-June, there are mounting concerns about the plight of Ukrainian civilians in the coming winter with Russia expected to double down on past efforts to use the annual chill as a weapon
Ukraine has lost around 8000 or 9000 MWh of electricity generation during this invasion. They'd been planning to link into European neighbours for years, away from sources in Russia and Belarus. The 2022 invasion led to this work speeding up but can't provide much more than 1700 MWh now. Five years will see around 4000MWh being imported from neighbours.
Some of that capacity was lost recently due to the wrangling within the US Congress, which Russia capitalised on by targetting Ukraine's energy systems while AD munitions were in short supply.
Biden has, however, recently allowed the use of limited categories of US weapons in limited circumstances in Ukrainian operations on Russian soil.
This, and supply to the Azov Brigade, are signs that the gloves are slowly coming off. An acceleration would be welcomed by President Zelensky and would be crucial to a shorter war, but that has to be balanced by other considerations.
Not surprisingly, Zelensky has always chafed at the self-imposed limits of Western support for his war effort that are a symptom of Biden’s core aim of avoiding a direct NATO confrontation with Russia.
A Russian tactic is to push the boundaries and see what happens; the west is mirroring that and is now testing Russia's red lines
I know that we have to keep trying, but a peace summit with Russia (not attending) on the other side of the table seems like shouting at the sky.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1802059854296858898?t=j18YYZbc7suM0LvmemBDzQ&s=19