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It does look like attrition is the way to go.
Of course we don't know how capable Russia military is, stories about their convoys running on only days worth of rations and fuel may or may not be western propaganda.
I hate to be the one to mention Sun-Tzu again, but with thier currency in trouble, 25% interest rates and the freezing of assets,it's simply a matter of when, not if, Russia will fall.
You need seriously robust logistics backing up the front line attack.
Why attack the front line when you can cut supply lines from the back end by ruining thier economy?
There seems to be a global effort to screw putin financially. It's not war of you simply stop doing business with someone.
Starve them out, so to speak
It does seem that, while the Russian army may seem to be disorganised and ill-equipped they are taking control of key cities. What is that tipping point where the Ukrainians have to consider a mass-evacuation/retreat and regroup to fight another day?
Sadly it isn’t surprising that Boris won’t sanction his paymasters. Spineless load of shits
A few of my family (who are raving Brexit-worshippers) seem to think that Johnson has single handedly lead the way with the EU following his lead! Where the hell they've got that idea from I have no idea. If the EU countries can immediately start freezing funds and siezing yachts etc then surely we, with out nww-found sovereignty should be able to do the same? Oh no, we have to give them 18 months notice and actively help them liquidate assets!
Anyway, back to the immediate problems and the people that really matter, the Ukrainian civilians.
A sober assessment from Chomsky:
The problem that all of these analysis never address is
1. It assumes Putin will make a rational decision to that of a similar western leader and that withdrawal of NATO from surrounding states will achieve some sort of detent or peace because it mistakenly asserts that what Putin wants to not have a threatening force on his border when in reality it's a zero sum game to him and he will invade as he will perceive it as weakness. He wins; you loose, if that hasn't been clear before, surely it bloody well should be by now (do we have to make another list of all the countries he done this to over the years, again?)
2. this analysis offers no alternative to the states that have joined, other than to be pawns in a game of "Please let's not be beastly to Putin"
I normally agree with Chomsky, but I think the NATO encroachment argument is a duff one, and is being used just to make anti-Imperialist attack's on the US. By all means make anti Imperialist attacks on the US, God knows they deserves critism, this isn't a sound one though.
Seeing a lot of tweets now saying that the Russian borders are pretty much all closed. Planes turning back mid-flight, lorries queuing up and people being stopped at road borders. Planes are already being seized by the leasing companies keen to get their planes back before the airlines keep them and flog them to pay debts.
Increasing rumours of martial law in Russia as of tonight.
Looks like the Iron Curtain is back.
Seeing a lot of tweets now saying that the Russian borders are pretty much all closed. Planes turning back mid-flight, lorries queuing up and people being stopped at road borders. Planes are already being seized by the leasing companies keen to get their planes back before the airlines keep them and flog them to pay debts.
Follows on from suggestion that tomorrows emergency Russian Parliamentary session will be to invoke martial law.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/03/russia-introduce-martial-law-war-ukraine/
You do know the torch-waving nazi parades are real though right?
It wouldn’t surprise me, but show me a European country that doesn’t have an extreme Right-wing group or organisation within its borders. There’s Germany, Austria, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Great Britain, Sweden, Russia…
Yep Nick, Korea, Guatamala, Panama, Iraq .... Imperialism is the problem, best demand Stop the War! Russian kids on exercise, 18-60s told they can't leave. It's all F awful.
A few of my family (who are raving Brexit-worshippers) seem to think that Johnson has single handedly lead the way with the EU following his lead! Where the hell they’ve got that idea from I have no idea.
I’ve just had to block a guy who was formerly by best customer some years ago from Facebook (and I hate censorship!) for this very reason… There just is no reasoning with him, he keeps spamming my “radical leftist” posts and is sharing some stuff that even the Daily Fail or the Telegraph would find pretty far fetched on his page. If I question it, he then continually calls me out for living in an “echo chamber” (I sat watching RT World News the other night, trying to find sense in the Russian propaganda and how pervasive it is in the US right now!)…
These people exist crazily. He didn’t used to be like this, but he has firmly entered the Cult of Boris… Boris could piss on his chips and he’d say it tasted like vinegar ffs! He can do no wrong.
In that respect, he is no different to a significant number of Russian citizens right now I guess! 🤷🏻♂️
Well done for posting that up BillMC, though I see its even being addressed as a negative. Noam Chomskey must be one of those Putineers some members have been talking about.
It’s not exactly a simple case of goodies Vs baddies.
Indeed. It seems like today's hero Zelensky has questionable credentials when it comes to ignoring the plight of Palestinians subject to artillery destruction of their cities.
It seems like today’s hero Zelensky has questionable credentials when it comes to ignoring the plight of Palestinians subject to artillery destruction of their cities.
And in return, Israel is hedging its bets on this war... politics, eh?
Yad Vashem, Israel’s Holocaust museum, has even found itself in the peculiar position of writing to the US ambassador to ask the US not to impose sanctions on the Israeli-Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, who is a major donor to Jewish institutions – and a longtime supporter of Putin.
So, Russia are closing in on a couple of nuclear power plants in the south of the country. Theoretically, what would happen if they were targeted by missiles, would they go up or are they fairly safe from that sort of bombardment..? I’ve no clue.
Okay, to address your first question - would they "go up" - the simple answer is no. It's not a bomb and operates in a completely different way.
Whether they are safe from bombardment or not is a different question. PWR reactors have secondary containment buildings which are designed to withstand internal and external damage. Now I'd imagine a stray missile or mortar on its own wouldn't be much of an issue, even if it blew the secondary containment the reactor would be shut down and the radiation would fall to safe levels very quickly, the issue would be if the coolant loops got damaged in some way and the back ups failed. A sustained bombardment, on the other hand, would be devastating but I'm not sure anyone would actually do that as the fallout would be immense (literally and figuratively) and probably result in something worse than Chernobyl ever was.
Indeed. It seems like today’s hero Zelensky has questionable credentials when it comes to ignoring the plight of Palestinians subject to artillery destruction of their cities.
Show me a person that hasn’t turned a blind eye to at least one thing that they found morally wrong in the past, and I’ll show you a liar…
Your point?
A sustained bombardment, on the other hand, would be devastating but I’m not sure anyone would actually do that as the fallout would be immense (literally and figuratively) and probably result in something worse than Chernobyl ever was.
It will be about turning the lights off rather than creating Chernobyl V2.0… You can’t hack something like a Nuclear Power station remotely to turn the power off, you need to have physical control of it yourself.
From that article I'm not sure what Noam Chomsky is recommending. It seems very vague but the central theme seems to be appeasement.
On being elected, Zelensky had the leader of the opposition out under house arrest. Corbyn beware of Starmsky!
Once again catching up on the radio news on the way home - it's horrifying what's happening and how the Russians are behaving. 🙁
Show me a person that hasn’t turned a blind eye to at least one thing that they found morally wrong in the past, and I’ll show you a liar…
Your point?
No evidence that he found it morally wrong. Which is the point.
it’s horrifying what’s happening and how the Russians are behaving. 🙁
Residents of Grozny and Aleppo will not be surprised.
Thanks for the replies SK and MB.
It will be about turning the lights off rather than creating Chernobyl V2.0… You can’t hack something like a Nuclear Power station remotely to turn the power off, you need to have physical control of it yourself.
I'm not commenting on their motivation for taking key infrastructure (that should be pretty obvious) but rather answering the questions asked.
As for hacking, I wouldn't be too sure about that, Stuxnet was tailored for nuclear processing and it's not unrealistic to think similar couldn't be made for Ukraine's newer plants, the older ones will probably be stuffed full of relays.
From that article I’m not sure what Noam Chomsky is recommending. It seems very vague but the central theme seems to be appeasement.
I'm not really sure either other than it's all the US's fault, Ukraine shouldn't have been allowed to westernise, Russia is at fault and Ukraine is a sovereign nation. It just seems like a load of contradictions that don't seem to make sense or offer any answers when taken as whole.
best demand Stop the War!
I get that, but let's say NATO withdrew from the Baltic and Poland, and we can see that given that invitation Putin will advance and invade those states under some false narrative (because he's demonstrated time and again it's what he'll do), and the next thing you know Putin's saying "Hey, NATO is still at my border..." How far back do you retreat before NATO is no longer on the border? Romania? Hungray? East Germany? How many independent states do we throw under a bus to stop him threatening to nuke us all?
I'm glad we live in country where Corbyn, Chomsky and Abbott can protest and write and speak to Stop the War, they can't do that in Russia.
It seems very vague but the central theme seems to be appeasement.
I’m all up for appeasement, if it means the RF border stays where it is, unless the people in neighbouring states choose to join the RF without “liberating” military intervention. But anyone who thinks that invasions would stop, rather than increase, if we tell Eastern European countries they are out on their own, needs to think again.
My concerns right now (after the people of Ukraine) are actually for the people of Russia. Putin is about to fight a war behind his own lines, and anyone in Russia prepared to stand up to him is in serious danger. Those against his (don’t call it a) war are in serious risk, and the bravery of those openly speaking out is unimaginable from the relative safety of a western country.
The problem that all of these analysis never address is
1. It assumes Putin will make a rational decision to that of a similar western leader and that withdrawal of NATO from surrounding states will achieve some sort of detent or peace because it mistakenly asserts that what Putin wants to not have a threatening force on his border when in reality it’s a zero sum game to him and he will invade as he will perceive it as weakness. He wins; you loose, if that hasn’t been clear before, surely it bloody well should be by now (do we have to make another list of all the countries he done this to over the years, again?)
2. this analysis offers no alternative to the states that have joined, other than to be pawns in a game of “Please let’s not be beastly to Putin”
I normally agree with Chomsky, but I think the NATO encroachment argument is a duff one, and is being used just to make anti-Imperialist attack’s on the US. By all means make anti Imperialist attacks on the US, God knows they deserves critism, this isn’t a sound one though.
Fundamentally i think people misunderstand NATO.
useful - can understand why former USSR countries want to join. also sense Putin knows NATO is limited and is taking a gamble on stealing Ukraine without consequence if he doesnt attack NATO countries
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186496574812161?s=20&t=uFPz_2ijw0HRWN6Zk9VgiQ
Despite post-Georgia negotiations, it is NATO that is seeking to expand.
Whilst things might change with the Russian public, apathy is so firmly entrenched that it isn’t going to happen overnight and when it does, the crackdown could be utterly ferocious.
Apathy is the wrong word. Knowing that expressing political opinions, or simply reporting the news, will ruin your life, and the lives of everyone around you, at best… and possibly the end of your lives) well that keeps people quiet. It’s not apathy. It’s terrifying paralysing fear.
The programme is well worth watching though. Note that the situation for independent news is even worse than when that programme was wrapped up for broadcast only a week or so ago. Much worse.
And the Russian "federation" by the looks of things.
Only one of them is doing it by invading countries that don't want them though.
it is NATO that is seeking to expand
I am also horrified at the current scenes of NATO tanks rolling into countries to depose their leaders and occupy their territory.
I’m not commenting on their motivation for taking key infrastructure (that should be pretty obvious) but rather answering the questions asked.
Apologies, I was aiming my post at JasonDS though replied quoting you…
As for hacking, I wouldn’t be too sure about that, Stuxnet was tailored for nuclear processing and it’s not unrealistic to think similar couldn’t be made for Ukraine’s newer plants, the older ones will probably be stuffed full of relays.
I had understood that post Chernobyl, there was no noire Nuclear plants built in Ukraine. I would have thought anything left in Ukraine was as you say, stuffed full of relays.
Despite post-Georgia negotiations, it is NATO that is seeking to expand.
Is NATO seeking to expand or are countries seeking to join NATO?
NATO doesn't invade countries that refuse to join. NATO members don't even impose sanctions on countries that refuse to join.
In fact, I'm not even sure how many countries have been asked to join and refused.
How many of us still don't make use of our rights as pedestrians and cyclists for fear of road rage? I have a lot of sympathy for any Russians keeping their heads down. Can't do much good if you're dead or in jail. Poor buggers.
Despite post-Georgia negotiations, it is NATO that is seeking to expand.
Or to put a slightly different spin on it, there are neighbours of Russia who are quite keen to join NATO.
although AIUI (happened to listen to a podcast about it yesterday!) the facility targeted by Stuxnet was off-line so the virus was smuggled in on USB sticks by spies, James Bond style! I'd imagine a lot of critical power/military facilities aren't connected to the Internet, for obvious reasons.As for hacking, I wouldn’t be too sure about that, Stuxnet was tailored for nuclear processing
Apologies, I was aiming my post at JasonDS though replied quoting you…
No worries, just realised my reply was a bit blunt, sorry!
I had understood that post Chernobyl, there was no noire Nuclear plants built in Ukraine. I would have thought anything left in Ukraine was as you say, stuffed full of relays.
Most are 1980's but there are a handful that were built in the mid 90's and early 00's.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/ukraine.aspx
"It’s not apathy. It’s terrifying paralysing fear."
It's both Kelvin, as a couple of posters up the page mentioned, look at the apathy towards politics that has been engineered in our own country. Imagine 24 years of rule by Boris.
Apathy or not, the suggestion was made that the Russian people weren't going to stand for it and I responded that Putin was perfectly capable of treating his own citizens as brutally as he does those in Ukraine and now it looks like martial law for Russians tomorrow.
Or to put a slightly different spin on it, there are neighbours of Russia who are quite keen to join NATO.
I'm not sure NATO is actively seeking to expand, more that people want to join it for protection.
And Ukraine is showing why.
Or to put a slightly different spin on it, there are neighbours of Russia who are quite keen to join NATO.
Well will you look at that, it appears to be the case- what a coincidence!! Why could that be?
Or, to paraphrase the much missed Mrs Merton 'what is it about being on the doorstep of a terrifying basket case of an expansionist autocratic regime that draws you to joining a defensive alliance?'
although AIUI (happened to listen to a podcast about it yesterday!) the facility targeted by Stuxnet was off-line so the virus was smuggled in on USB sticks by spies, James Bond style!
IIRC it wasn't so much spies as social engineering, leaving infected USB sticks about as someone is bound to be helpful and plug it in to see who it belongs to.
I don't think it was targeting nuclear facilities per se but the Siemens generic control boxes. The original plan was just to send the odd box and the centrifuge on the blink to slow things down while engineers chased faults and didnt suspect anything. Mossad decided that was too subtle so tweaked the code to send everything into meltdown... The BBC doc is also very good.
Slightly off-tack… I know there are lots of sports banning Russian participation now but are those sports still broadcasting into Russia?
depriving them of coverage of major sporting event would be a logical next step.
I responded that Putin was perfectly capable of treating his own citizens as brutally as he does those in Ukraine
That is my biggest fear right now, after the war in Ukraine being ramped up to city flattening mode.
More Russian news outlets closed again today. Standing up to Putin now is as dangerous as facing up to the Russian troops in Ukraine. Or perhaps more dangerous in many ways. The war at home will be brutal, what little we’ll get to see of it. I really feel for the Russian people in the weeks and months ahead.
There's an awful lot of people who don't understand the difference between the words expansion and absorption and they should be a little more cognicent of the predictive nature of using the phrase 'NATO expansion".
Jesus h keerrrist the Russian Football Union is complaining about it’s rights being violated!
If you were part of the Russian Football Union you'd be doing the same.
Sad to see Chomsky falling for the “it’s all NATO’s fault” Kremlin talking points 🤷♂️
Does anyone know if the Russia stock market has opened yet?
I don't understand the word 'cognicent'.
If you were part of the Russian Football Union you’d be doing the same.
Nope
"Does anyone know if the Russia stock market has opened yet?"
When it does, I've heard that they are going to be reverting to the barter system.
Time to get Ronald Reagan's cold was joke book out again.
it is NATO that is seeking to expand
NATO doesn't send invites or press gang countries. Independent, sovereign states apply to join of their own free will. They do it because they are terrified of their belligerent, dysfunctional neighbour which believes they should come under its control due to some post Soviet sense of grievance. Membership is not a given, there is a long process and no guarantees.
The invasion of Ukraine is directly driving once ambivalent countries towards NATO out of fear. Even Finland is starting to think what was once unthinkable. Putin is directly causing NATO expansion and it's hard to see why, unless he is genuinely seeking WW3
I don't think Putin wants WW3, I think he wants territory. He may or may not be mad but he is acting as a Tsar ruling over an empire would.
Moscow stock market has not reopened and I’d be surprised if it does tomorrow.
I don’t think Putin wants WW3
I don't think he does, at the moment. But if it turns out that he (or Russia, which in his mind is the same) is going down, he's capable of trying to take the world with him. He said an number of times that there's no point in having a world if Russia isn't in it.
Not too far wrong. Always leading all the other kids astray.
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Channel 4 News showing pictures of young Russian kids being arrested and put in jail for demonstrating against the Special Military Operations aka War! WTAF??
and Starmsky threatens to withdraw the whip from MPs and Lords who signed up to Stop the War (including Lord John Hendy QC who has 10x the brains of that rightwing dimwit).
depriving them of coverage of major sporting event would be a logical next step.
No, I think they should be able to see the events they are no longer able to participate in. They might ask why.
Slightly off-tack… I know there are lots of sports banning Russian participation now but are those sports still broadcasting into Russia?
depriving them of coverage of major sporting event would be a logical next step.
The Premier League severed its contract with Russian broadcasters today. I imagine everyone else will be doing the same.
Starmsky threatens to withdraw the whip from MPs and Lords who signed up to Stop the War
I think Paul Mason has found the turn of phrase I was looking for…
Since NATO correctly cannot fight, everything depends on sanctions and geopolitical unity ... every dumb Twitter deluge of Kremlin talking points gives VVP ghouls hope that some part of the West will crack....
The West won’t crack, and opposition politicians need to be part of that solidarity in response.
Slightly off-tack… I know there are lots of sports banning Russian participation now but are those sports still broadcasting into Russia?
depriving them of coverage of major sporting event would be a logical next step.
I disagree, they should still be broadcast into Russia.
Events with no Russian competitors, stadiums of people wearing Ukrainian colours, tennis players writing anti-war messages on cameras, etc, etc.
Just little things on their own but this is a battle for public opinion in Russia, any alternative to the state narrative has to be a good thing.
I expect most of it is blocked though, not sure how much foreign media is getting through.
.
Talking of foreign media, I was trying to listen to Al Jazeera English on the radio earlier but it wasn't working. Just my computer? Just looking for a few alternative points of view as I get most of my news from the BBC and The Times, always nice to have a few others
ABC News Radio is mostly concerned with their massive floods, that has, probably understandably, gone totally under the radar here.
Its gone unmentioned so far but did anyone see on the news last night, the treatment dished out to Nigerian and Morrocon students trying to cross the Polish border? Being made to stand in a separate queue and let in at a rate of one african for every 10 white people? If allowed to cross at all?
The Ukranian and Polish governments need to be called out on this.
The dumbest thing is that they were all MEDICAL STUDENTS...
FFS.
Tv staff walk out and broadcast swan lake on the tv.
It's what they played when Chernobyl went up.
Putin won't have a people to govern soon.
Meant to be humour, but not too far from the truth....
https://twitter.com/SimonBrodkin/status/1499055376653766663
Tv staff walk out and broadcast swan lake on the tv.
That is the tv company featured in the documentary the BBC broadcast last night.
Also https://www.dec.org.uk/
/blockquote>Seconded.
Paypal option on DEC was stalling for me - must be a good sign! 👍
Yep didn't work for me about an hour ago either. Card worked fine
NATO doesn’t send invites or press gang countries. Independent, sovereign states apply to join of their own free will. They do it because they are terrified of their belligerent, dysfunctional neighbour which believes they should come under its control due to some post Soviet sense of grievance. Membership is not a given, there is a long process and no guarantees.
The invasion of Ukraine is directly driving once ambivalent countries towards NATO out of fear. Even Finland is starting to think what was once unthinkable. Putin is directly causing NATO expansion and it’s hard to see why, unless he is genuinely seeking WW3
Absolutely this! ^^^
This should be quoted to anyone who just writes the words ‘NATO expansionism’, because it’s clearly and blatantly untrue.
One more time, NATO does not invite membership, sovereign countries have to ask to join, then start a process to gain membership.
It is true, I believe, that a country can be approached to see if they might be interested in joining, Russia was at one point, but I could easily be mistaken, I’m just sure I read it somewhere.
It is true, I believe, that a country can be approached to see if they might be interested in joining, Russia was at one point, but I could easily be mistaken,
No, that's true.
[Edit] 1954 just after Stalin died
https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-history/russia-tried-to-join-nato/
Also, if the world as we know it is about to end and we are all going to die horribly why has no one rushed out and bought all the bog roll? Have we all still got plenty left from last time?
My only comment on this will probably go unnoticed but I am really heartened by the news of so many people and companies and organisations around the world just saying “no”. Stopping trade, cancelling deals, stopping electronics transactions, stopping Russian sports from competing. Even Russia is part of the 21sr century but it’s been cut off from it completely. Yes more might be able to to be done but it’s awesome to see what’s been done so far.
I have just seen Russia are going to appeal against their football ban - do they actually think anyone will play against them anyway?
The best one I have seen is that someone has hacked into Russian electric car charging points so they display “Putin is a d******d” on them all.
There's plenty of 'news' on YouTube with what appears to be interesting content.
Anyone know to see any info on who is uploading particular videos? I can't find any poster's bios or anything, would be helpful in judging how accurate it is likely to be.
As an aside, I think it's extremely naieve to think that informal (secret?) discussions don't take place between highly placed diplomats and/or military top brass, to sound out whether a country would be interested in "applying" to join NATO.
Just to add a little levity to the proceedings, a report from News Thump;
@markgraylish - that’s almost a certainty, all ‘off the record’, etc, as you say, naïve to think otherwise.
I have a lot of sympathy for any Russians keeping their heads down. Can’t do much good if you’re dead or in jail. Poor buggers.
They also put dissidents' kids into care, aka orphanage. One might risk jail or death, but who'd risk that?
he is acting as a Tsar ruling over an empire would.
People say this but surely he knows what happened to the last actual Tsar...
I can see why people are wondering what his state of health is. Someone who'd been given a terminal diagnosis might well no longer give a single **** and just start doing random stuff to see what happened.
Just had a quick shufti at ADS-B, and at the moment there’s a French, a British and a Belgian transport, two A400 Atlas and a C-17 Globemaster, all heading back west from somewhere in Poland…
…oh, and a German A400 as well.
why has no one rushed out and bought all the bog roll?
Who Gives A Crap - a big box arrived again today
This should be quoted to anyone who just writes the words ‘NATO expansionism’, because it’s clearly and blatantly untrue.
https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1498491107902062592?s=21
The guy who ran the falafel shop under independence square was an Israeli who'd come to Ukraine because he thought it was safer... Now even the Yemenis are hightailing it out because it is all.too.familiar https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/yemen-students-ukraine-russia-war
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/why-are-we-in-ukraine/
Just for a bit of balance before any jingoism leads to dyspepsia.
slowoldman
Full Member
Despite post-Georgia negotiations, it is NATO that is seeking to expand.Or to put a slightly different spin on it, there are neighbours of Russia who are quite keen to join NATO.
A further spin is that Ukraine and Georgia despite overtures, where never going to join be allowed to join NATO and Ukraine in particular had forewarning..
NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations. We welcome the democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia and look forward to free and fair parliamentary elections in Georgia in May. MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership. Today we make clear that we support these countries’ applications for MAP. Therefore we will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both at a high political level to address the questions still outstanding pertaining to their MAP applications. We have asked Foreign Ministers to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting. Foreign Ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications of Ukraine and Georgia.
That is the Bucharest Summit Declaration in April 2008, 4 months later Russia invaded Georgia.
I'm in no way justifying Russia here, their actions are abhorrent, but ideas that Russia or Georgia would ever have been permitted to join NATO are folly, and it was bad policy for either of their countries to seek it.
Not saying that democratically it wasn't their right to seek it, it was absolutely, but ultimately given the current destruction of Ukraine, the reality and hindsight says it wasn't a great idea.
Now being speculative and conspiratorial here, but it's not unknown Russia's attitude to Ukraine join in particular was hostile. So given that I don't think it's a stretch to think that Ukraine could perhaps be a bit of a sacrificial lamb in a wider game here.
If you ask, out with the destruction of Ukraine, and Ukraine staying within the Russian sphere, what is the outcome of this conflict?
To me it looks like a new cold war, and European Military spending is going to vastly increase, and we more than likely will have a new arms race, and Europe in general is all in in NATO now.
Now having a look a wider geopolitics of the next 20/30, China will challenge the US and it will most likely surpass them, The US won't be able to challenge them alone, US and Europe will. Which is a complete sea change, cause America and Europe did seem to be drifting apart a bit tbh
/End Conspiracy
The idea that Russia want a buffer against NATO is all a bit nonsense when you think about it.
The only demilitarised zone that seems to work is Korea and that's 4km wide and a tad tense.
The green line in Beirut was hardly stable.
Moving Russia's border to the line on the map that is the polish border is obvious expansionism.