Hardly seems a sustainable state of affairs.
As problems go right now... I'm not sure the citizens of Kaliningrad have featured especially highly on a list of priorities I'm afraid! 🤷🏻♂️
"As for the Chechen mercenaries… I guess he figured they’d get in amongst the general population quite quickly and easily"
Not sure about that, there were certainly Russian special forces planted into major cities in the weeks leading up but the Chechens stick out like a sore thumb, as conspicuous as a jihadi in a Jacuzzi.
Don't forget that the Chechen forces are made up of the kind of people who blew up the school in Beslan and held the Moscow theatre hostage, they are probably hated by the Russians even more than by the Ukranians.
Having the same thoughts about Putin’s ACME nukes, really think all this is showing what a crap state Russian armed forces and their kit is in.
Hardly seems a sustainable state of affairs.
Neither was the Berlin Air Lift but they managed that. Sending a ferry and ships round to Kaliningrad should be easy by comparison.
Don’t forget that the Chechen forces are made up of the kind of people who blew up the school in Beslan and held the Moscow theatre hostage
Maybe the same mentality but definitely a different side, these guys are loyal to the pro-Russian leader. Let's also not forget who did what in Moscow:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis#Chemical_attack
(not excusing either side here, just presenting facts in as much as I can)
I think he thought what with all the f-ups in Iraq/ Afghanistan etc and the appearance of Trump/ Brexit and other divisions in democracy, that the West would not be able to respond in a co-ordinated fashion. Couple that with his military’s apparent success in Syria and other places, and I think he genuinely thought he’d be in charge right across Ukraine by now.
Russian media is starting to report casualties, but no numbers yet. There’s is going to be a hell of a backlash when the body bags start coming home. And they haven’t even started the hard yards yet. Conquering empty fields is the easy bit. However, we do have to hope the Ukrainians don’t run out of ammo before they get resupplied.
The nuclear readiness reaction really is the act of a mad man and it will not be going unnoticed in China and many other countries who are staying as neutral as possible to be on Russia's side.
It's weird that he's even mentioned this, as he cannot stop the west sanctioning Russia, and i doubt he'll ever have enough backing to 'nuke' anyone, so it's a bit of a no win bluff.
It's a bit worrying posting the "piss" taking vids on twitter etc.... putin and his generals might not get the joke.
It’s a bit worrying posting the “piss” taking vids on twitter etc…. putin and his generals might not get the joke.
They won't be be able to - they've blocked it...
Just having a chuckle when I heard about captured Russian soldiers being surprised to find that they aren't taking part in a training exercise. In fact, some of them weren't even aware they were in Ukraine.
There's definitely some future Tory MPs there, I'm sure.
Just having a chuckle when I heard about captured Russian soldiers being surprised to find that they aren’t taking part in a training exercise. In fact, some of them weren’t even aware they were in Ukraine.
Sauce?
The mayor of Kyiv saying they are surrounded.
On AP - https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-e9cd115540b398be26dfcaf472ec1621
China and many other countries who are staying as neutral as possible
So if Russia start chucking nukes at NATO countries and starts the whole MAD ball rolling, I assume all the countries not in NATO or Russia are not bought into it and just carry on as before ? Or do we have stuff pointed at China etc and will bring them into it just because we can ?
After reading his 2018 speech about Russians being Martyrs and going to heaven in the event of a Nuclear strike , then I wouldn’t be so sure he wouldn’t go all out, especially if his own days are numbered.
Does anyone know if the whole of Peaky Blinders last season will be on iPlayer, would be good to see the conclusion before the above
This thread is full of some pretty bizarre speculation based on very little and lots of unrestrained spaffing over military hardware. It’s quite a tough read at times.
This...and the comment earlier about Reddit being full of frothing 14 year olds...my irony meter broke.
Quite honestly after the last few days I’d be more worried about being a Russian soldier than a citizen of Kiev (very glad I’m neither). They are at the very end of their supply lines facing a highly motivated and ruthless enemy, with who knows how many more anti tank weapons. They don’t appear to have large infantry forces to support them, and nor do they have air superiority. If they do get into Kyiv tonight it will be exceptionally costly for them.
I suppose the other option opposed to discussing the facts on the ground is to have a wee cry about it?
The nuclear threat is just posturing, most interesting though is its a definite sign of desperation from Putin.
Just talked to my lad who has a 2 year old son, Noah.
I told him that Putin wants wealth, prestige and power. So do the oligarchs that support him. China also wants to be a dominant world power.
Non of that counts for a damn if you are dead or are a dominant power in a dead world. Putin's days are numbered.
I feel pretty relaxed about the nuclear situation to be honest and I'm a natural worrier.
(Anyway, Putin is only threatening the nukes because of NATO, it's all NATO's fault. Bastards.😉 Sorry can't resist.)
It does seem Zelensky et al are winning the information war. Which must be disappointing for our Putineers. They seemed to believe everything that was fired their way by Russian bots last week.
China could come out of this very well indeed. They just need to keep a calm head, point out to Putin that he has underestimated what is at stake and appear as the intermediaries of peace.
scotroutes
Full Member
China could come out of this very well indeed. They just need to keep a calm head, point out to Putin that he has underestimated what is at stake and appear as the intermediaries of peace.
Potentially,for sure.
However...
They are probably annoyed that they publicly supported Putin (based on his assurances of a quick victory no doubt) just before an invasion that has solidified the West in a way they really could have done without.
I suspect the people of Taiwan are sleeping a little bit better tonight.
Plenty seem to be doing that, they might want to consider taking an internet break and consider some talking therapy.
As for the spaffing, zero ****s, I'm personally and professionally interested in military hardware etc. I'll spaff all I like thanks.
I suppose the other option opposed to discussing the facts on the ground is to have a wee cry about it?
When you’ve spent a good 20 odd years surrounding yourself with yes men
It was one of the interesting things about the Webb telescope project that they deliberately invited sceptical and dissenting voices to comment on what they were doing so they could actually comment on and disprove some of the suggestions. You do sometimes wonder what would happen if we ran civil society in the same way we ran the successful but super risky science
I'm with you poopscoop, Putin is doing his best rocketman impersonation.
@leffeboy Couldn't hurt to deliberately employ and embrace some disruptors/challengers in government, doubt it would make things any less inspiring!
inkster
Free Member
I’m with you poopscoop, Putin is doing his best rocketman impersonation.
I suspect he's having some poor sap taste all his food and drink at the moment...
I'd say it's a bit premature to think the Russians might not achieve their objective. They're getting a very warm reception but I think Putin will grind out the "victory". He's ****ed if he loses.
Ignore - totally mis-read
Not sure about that, there were certainly Russian special forces planted into major cities in the weeks leading up but the Chechens stick out like a sore thumb, as conspicuous as a jihadi in a Jacuzzi.
When I said "get amongst" the civilians... I didn't mean that the Chechens would be doing it in a particularly sly way... I meant it more in a "we're here to rape your wives, kill your children and force you to watch" kind of way, marching in in literal barbarian hordes. The absolute opposite of what you thought I meant! Obviously, Putin overestimated their ability of course...
I think he thought what with all the f-ups in Iraq/ Afghanistan etc and the appearance of Trump/ Brexit and other divisions in democracy, that the West would not be able to respond in a co-ordinated fashion. Couple that with his military’s apparent success in Syria and other places, and I think he genuinely thought he’d be in charge right across Ukraine by now.
This...
Russian media is starting to report casualties, but no numbers yet. There’s is going to be a hell of a backlash when the body bags start coming home. And they haven’t even started the hard yards yet. Conquering empty fields is the easy bit. However, we do have to hope the Ukrainians don’t run out of ammo before they get resupplied.
There's going to start to be some significant backlash as soon as people stop watching RT, and start watching the global media...
As for Ukraine running out of ammunition...? 😂 Have you been watching the news?!?! Christ... I'm more worried how the EU/UN/NATO is going to get all the excess of weapons back out of Ukraine once the conflict is over, lest the largest ammo dump in Europe remain inside a particularly angry and motivated country after this is all over! 🤫
Quite honestly after the last few days I’d be more worried about being a Russian soldier than a citizen of Kiev (very glad I’m neither). They are at the very end of their supply lines facing a highly motivated and ruthless enemy, with who knows how many more anti tank weapons. They don’t appear to have large infantry forces to support them, and nor do they have air superiority. If they do get into Kyiv tonight it will be exceptionally costly for them.
Also this... Given the situation, I would MUCH rather be oversupplied and under trained than well trained and poorly equipped!
A bunch of young recruits, mostly sent in to fight a war that they won't believe in let alone been given all the full facts about, with poor equipment, fighting an extremely motivated and incredibly resourceful army with a seemingly unending supply of weapons... Reminding anyone of Russia's ineptitude on Afghanistan anyone? 🤷🏻♂️
It does seem Zelensky et al are winning the information war. Which must be disappointing for our Putineers. They seemed to believe everything that was fired their way by Russian bots last week.
Its funny how telling the truth wins out over an orchestrated web of lies when the shit hits the fan eh!?!? 🤔
"You do sometimes wonder what would happen if we ran civil society in the same way we ran the successful but super risky science"
It's not perfect but that's essentially what democracy is. Where the model (system) gets tested every few years when it becomes subjected to public evaluation.
One might hope that the Russian soldiers, given their youth, are the very generation with a much bigger grasp on global opiniOn via social media than their illustrious leaders
I’d say it’s a bit premature to think the Russians might not achieve their objective. They’re getting a very warm reception but I think Putin will grind out the “victory”. He’s **** if he loses.
Why do you think he's threatening Nukes after only 4 days?!?! 🤷🏻♂️😂
On the chart of "how well things are going" for Putin, this is somewhere between "hadn't even been considered we could be doing this badly" and "oh ****!"...
"Grind out a victory"?!?! 😂😂😂 There's nothing going to be ground out here... Putin is quickly realising his only weapon of any real threat left is that of the nuclear deterrent. And the more he talks about it, the less people are scared of his threats any more.
It wouldn't surprise me if Putin goes out on his own terms before too long. A budding Hitler he may be, a master of espionage for sure and he has proven his patience time and again. A superb military tactician he is not though!
The Channel 4 documentary "Putin: a Russian Spy Story" makes interesting viewing, some good (tho necessarily one-sided) history of how he came to power.
Wonder how much the rouble will crash by when the markets open tomorrow morning.
I think we are all just dealing with this in our own way. Some people are 'spaffing' over the MBLN4s and the XTALFJS5s.
Others are having a bit of a cry because of the very real threat that we're going to end up watching our kids die of radiation poisoning (pah, snowflakes).
I don't think there's a wrong way to discuss this unless we want to split up into multiple Ukraine threads.
Personally, my most recent contribution was saying how I chuckled at something I heard on a YT news channel. The idea of Russian soldiers claiming they didn't even know they were in Ukraine just made me think about partygate and Boris Johnson getting hauled out of a tank on the outskirts of Kyiv and attempting to explain to Ukranian soldiers that he thought he had been in a Taxi and how he wasn't sure if he was currently in Ukraine or not and, well, yes, of course, it is a tank and I am in Ukraine but I think most people would agree that it's not really a big deal and really, you could consider the tank a workplace.
Anyway, I got asked to provide my source which just made me start laughing again.
And then start crying.
Vitali Klitschko saying roads out of Kyiv are blocked; Russians reported to be bringing up heavy artillery including thermobaric weapons.
Against that backdrop the discussions scheduled for tomorrow either may not happen or could be nothing more than window dressing.
Good to see FIFA have done pretty much nothing, bar Russia can't have their flag or anthem at their matches, it's times like this that you get to see the real side of some organisations, companies and people, FIFA have told the world what really matters, corrupt to the core and how normal football hasn't moved away from this shambolic organisation is beyond me.
How could Putin bow out? Without being a head of state, he is going to get arrested for crimes against humanity in most of the world. Maybe Syria would take him in if he has hidden his dosh well enough and can pay. If he stays in Russia... maybe that monstrosity he is building on the Black Sea is actually the prison he is going to have to spend the rest of his life in?
I think the only way he goes is feet-first.
Gotcha mboy!
The Chechens were sent in to be a modern day einsatzgruppen, (Nazi death squad).
Good to see FIFA have done pretty much nothing, bar Russia can’t have their flag or anthem at their matches,
This is the sort of appeasement crap that emboldened Russia in the first place; a cop out with the IOC and state sponsored doping, the apparatus of the state murdering people in the UK and nothing happens. If you get away with everything you’re not going to stop.
Tinkoff is currently offering something like 170 roubles to the dollar when the pre-sanctions rate was 83 or something. With BP and now Norway divesting and the sanction in place, tomorrow the market is going to royally screw Russian business.
Putin has already lost. He can't do anything now, even if he flattens Kyiv and parades Zelensky and Klitchko in front of the TV. He's out of SWIFT (or as good as), Switzerland is (probably) freezing his money, Russians can't leave the country or move their money and the ones outside soon may not be able to use their mobiles. he's even blocked FaceBook in Russia. Threatening nukes is all he's got left and China may have words to say about that.
Overnight coup to remove him? 🤞”
binners, have you checked the odds / laid a bet yet?
That brought a welcome chuckle.
Which must be disappointing for our Putineers. They seemed to believe everything that was fired their way by Russian bots last week.
Seriously, war and a huge humanitarian crisis on our doorstep, with a madman threatening to go nuclear, and baiting forum members is a priority for some?
Christ if even the Swiss have turned against him he’s a dead man walking. Frankly what happens tonight is now a bit of an irrelevance. All those oligarchs with money they can’t access will surely act? It is truly terrible that so many lives are going to be lost in the next few hours for no purpose whatsoever. Makes me feel quite ill actually.
It’s often said that war is pointless but this one is even more pointless than most.
New tractor for the farm?
It’s often said that war is pointless but this one is even more pointless than most.
Sadly we seem to need a pointless one every decade or two to reiterate the point. Hopefully this one will really drive it home for the current generation like Iraq and Afghanistan have for the two before.
The rest of Europe have agreed to take all Ukrainian refugees without them having to claim asylum.