Forum menu
They never would have had the element of surprise anyway. Apparently, part of it is waiting for the ground to freeze so that vehicles don't get bogged down in mud. They also need time to ship tens of thousands of tonnes of equipment around. On top of that, Putin has attempted to use this as a negotiating tactic to force concessions out of NATO. To do that, he had to openly make preparations for a large-scale invasion so that NATO knew he had something to exchange. The element of surprise is whether they will escalate, where, and to what degree.
I think it's an issue of intimidation tactics and a mild, therefore muddy, winter preventing a swift invasion.
Desert Storm was hardly a surprise attack. As above, the obvious build up was a tactic to try to get the other side to back down
I have a question: Is it normal for an invading army to gather in their hundreds of thousands at the border of the intended invadee and then just sit there, waiting? It’s been weeks!! It’s not exactly preserving the element of surprise…
The problem is massing troops on a border looks pretty much the same whether it's being done to force a conciliation on something or as a prelude to invasion (e.g. Iraq and the Kuwait invasion).
If Russia does invade it will likely be a combination of Spetsnaz airborne/seaborne (these guys aren't the ones massing at the border - in fact many are reportedly in Ukraine already as Ukraine doesn't have control of the much of the Donbas). The troops massing on the border are the expendable (to Putin) conscripts who will grind their way in to reinforce the Spetsnaz as the second wave. If Putin's intent is a full-scale invasion then the third wave will be reinforcements (better trained and equipped than the second wave) going in through Belarus, Crimea and Russia. Or I could just be talking bollocks :p
…China don’t have bases all over the world because they are not welcome whereas the U.S. is tolerated.
The CCP just buy influence and power with investment trade deals etc around the world which is probably a lot easier.
The CCP just buy influence and power with investment trade deals etc around the world which is probably a lot easier.
The U.S. has been doing that for decades too. Their global power isn't purely military force, most of it is economic.
I'm guessing there will be a move by Russia to "secure" Donbas. Putin will try and sell this as protecting the Russian population and as a way of ending the ongoing conflict in the region. There will also be statements that Russia won't go any further, limited operation, nothing to see here etc etc.
Alexander Vindman thinks a full-on Russian assault is most likely.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-01-21/day-after-russia-attacks
Alexander Vindman thinks a full-on Russian assault is most likely.
Was he rubbing his hands with glee at the time ?.
I've never really been a viewer of Tucker or Fox news, but at least they're saying what it is.
Tucker Carlson talks a lot of shit, a lot of the time. I’m not even going to give that Trumpist culture war cock bag a play as his usual barrage of misinformation is not how I want to start the weekend, but does the video paint Democrats/current administration in a very bad ligh?
Actually, what happened to last years $2.7 billion law suit against Fox by Smartmatic, went in November time iirc?
I’m not even going to give that Trumpist culture war cock bag a play as his usual barrage of misinformation is not how I want to start the weekend, but does the video paint Democrats/current administration in a very bad light?
He seems to be talking more about the military war machine. But yes there's some anti democrat stuff in there (To be expected.)
Sorry, I should have been less ranty. But just to say Carlson is a massively unreliable and a hopelessly biased “commentator” and it’s definitely not news. It’s how he has so far got away with some of the stuff he says, as it’s “opinion” not “fact”.
I have him about on par with Neil Oliver on vaccines.
The headline from BnDs link
Fox News won a court case by 'persuasively' arguing that no 'reasonable viewer' takes Tucker Carlson seriously
Tucker Carlson talks a lot of shit,
a lotall of the time.
FTFY. It's his business model. He just says whatever outrageous bullshit keeps his audience riled up. He's a smart guy and he knows he's talking shit, but he also knows he can make a lot of money by talking shit.
Honestly, if you want to find some alternative viewpoints on this, go visit Reporters Sans Frontiers, pick a few countries from the top of the list and see what’s on they’re news.
You will still likely end up with a European perspective, but we also tend not to kill many journalists, which has a large part in the ranking. US media can be pretty nuts too, flicking from Fox to CNN is some hell of a jump of viewpoints.
BBC News - Ukraine: US orders families of embassy staff to leave
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60106416
It's not looking good
"Top German Navy officer Vice Adm. Kay-Achim Schönbach said that the idea that Russia seeks to seize additional territory from Ukraine is "nonsense."
You would think he would be best placed to make such a comment.
You would think he would be best placed to make such a comment.
He does seem very familiar with nonsense. He's just spouting the German official line. Germany just wants to pretend that this isn't happening and that they'll be able to keep importing Russian gas and exporting stuff there. Germany is in denial about reality on this.
Hmmm, what are the Russki’s up to?
Hmmm, what are the Russki’s up to?
And how exactly would they know the capabilities of such a ship. I dont think they print that type of stuff in the local Russian library under - Spy Ship Plans.
And given theres so many, you pretty much cant sail anywhere without crossing over at least one.
The New York Times today issued an extraordinary mea culpa over its coverage of Iraq, admitting it had been misled about the presence of weapons of mass destruction.
New York Post Archives.
And how exactly would they know the capabilities of such a ship.
It's called "espionage". Each country photographs the shit out of every military vehicle, ship, and aircraft belonging to other countries every chance they get. Those are analyzed by experts who pore over every detail. They also gather electromagnetic and infrared emissions and analyze those for clues, plus seabed microphones to gather acoustic emissions, and so forth. On top of that, defectors or spies might provide detailed technical details. Just getting dockworkers drunk and letting them blabber away will give details about operational matters. Figuring out that a ship is designed to cut undersea cables would not be as difficult as you imagine.
It’s called “espionage”.
Yup this is true.
But when you know about such information it's prudent not to let on you know what they have,and printing it in the main newspapers throws that into a cocked hat.
I read a case years ago about a secret US aircraft. It was top top secret, even congress didnt know it existed.
Until a local model company released it as a kit.
They while picking up plans for aircraft for their models were inadvertently given the secret plans as well.
But when you know about such information it’s prudent not to let on you know what they have,and printing it in the main newspapers throws that into a cocked hat.
Yes and no. Disclosing what you know about another nation's activities can let them know that they are being watched and deter them from doing it. It's not always such a big deal to disclose intelligence unless drawn from covert human sources.
The cable cutting, or at least getting caught doing it, does seem to be a Russian speciality. Their vessels have been spotted close to areas where cables have been 'damaged'. There was one up in Sweden last week that was almost certainly conducted by the Russians. So not a biggie to say: "We know what your ship can do and we know where it is and where it has been".
Possibly the only reason they know or suspect is we will have our own ship designed for cutting communication cables.
It would be prudent for us to have our own.
Biden looks clueless. He may as well have green lit Russian actions with his 'minor incursion' gaff.
It’s not always such a big deal to disclose intelligence unless drawn from covert human sources.
For many things, it will be obvious that the other side knows the capabilities. For example, an AWACS plane is huge and cannot be disguised. Other countries can get high resolution photos of them, look at the visible antennae, and analyze all the electromagnetic signals. Once they are used operationally, it's not giving anything away to discuss their obvious capabilities.
That German navel commander got the sack (left his post) this morning.
Also news but could be rubbish that Putin has brought in a lot of eastern Russian based soldiers that might not have close ties to Ukraine or western lifestyle ambitious for the dirty fighting when the general population get involved.
It turns out it's a well know tactic even the Roman empire did it.
I can see a huge cyber attack coming to keep you IT folk off singletrack you can put those coffee machines to good use.
Why hasn't Ukraine been allowed to join NATO?
They (and Georgia and Bosnia) became 'partners' in 2008, with aspirations to join.
The official reason is that they do not yet meet all the criteria.
I'm not sure if they could be granted emergency admission tomorrow, that would be a very strong signal to Russia, but the other members may not want to do this as they might have to actually do something rather than just impose sanctions.
but the other members may not want to do this as they might have to actually do something rather than just impose sanctions.
Exactly. Feels like Russia can pretty much invade who it likes
Haha! But, also, depressingly good point
Oh god imagine if the UK demanded the same? That's nearly a 1/3 of all habitable land mass, isn't it?!?
Why hasn’t Ukraine been allowed to join NATO?
They don't meet several anti-corruption standards that are part of the formal requirements for joining.
There's also the small matter of having an Eastern region in the middle of a seperatist civil war, where do you draw the border?
That said, international treaties are very much a case of 'where there's a will there's a way' and if the members are united in wanting to bring a country in sharpish, a way will be found.
‘where there’s a will there’s a way’ and if the members are united in wanting to bring a country in sharpish, a way will be found.
All current members have to agree because they will be bound to go to war if any member country is attacked. Ukraine has major corruption problems. They need to get their house in order before anyone is going to let them join NATO.
However, if Poland is used as a base to supply weapons and train Ukrainian soldiers out of reach of Russian weapons, that will force Putin to decide whether to tolerate it or attack Poland. If he does attack Poland, then NATO will be forced to respond. That would involve military action within Ukraine, even if they didn't attack targets in Russia. Once that happens, some sort of quasi-membership of NATO for Ukraine seems likely.
Interesting bit of posturing from the RAF. This is a live track for one of their spy planes right now - just chugging along the border of Crimea. The purple lines in the sea mark the territorial boundary.
They'd not normally fly with the tracking switched on.
All current members have to agree because they will be bound to go to war if any member country is attacked
Article V. In the absence of that I can't see anyone in NATO having the appetite for even a limited mechanised war against a well-equipped enemy.
Stand back everyone! Liz is on the case!
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1485947250010435588?s=20
It is unclear at this point whether she'll be driving a tank
Interesting analysis.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/
^^^ Fantastic article. Thanks.
With Putin's troops mincing around on the Ukrainian border I can't help but look at Russia and appreciate just how backwards it is. At least the degree of corruption in the UK appears to be simmering around illegal wine and cheese at the moment, as opposed to invading an entire country to give the world's richest man slightly easier access to his holiday home.
It would be nice if we could have a tiny gap of normality between Covid and war in Europe.
That German navel commander got the sack
Navel commander got the sack.
Must have been aiming too low 😛