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Poland decided that it made sense to support Ukraine massively and keep Russia at arm's length.
To achieve that they dug into active materiel rather than merely reserves like most other nations. They've reached a notional limit and need to restock now.
Belarus has been pushing Iraqi and Afghan migrants into Lithuania and now Poland in what's described as a hybrid campaign to destabilise Europe https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/18/russia-belarus-poland-lithuiania-migrants-eu-weapon/
This has continued into 2022, when Poland built a massive border fence at great expense, and 2023
Oh dear, those poor Russians mustn't be getting any sleep with all these things blowing up around them.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1705165195771875597
Very satisfying
All those drone attacks on the Russian radar seems to be paying off
NBC reporting Biden will give Ukraine a limited number of ATACMS…………
Over to you Germany…
headquartsers just struck in Sevastopol
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705243555134898286
is the 2nd Black Sea fleet command post to be hit in 2 days
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1704887634525401514
wow they really are cranking up the pressure on crimea, what is russias counter going to be? more missles and drones on the ports.... or are they going to actually sink one of those grain ships. Almost like ukraine is baiting them to do so, and then face even more international condemnation.
<p style="text-align: left;">lots of very unsubstantiated rumours</p>
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1705261291923759568?s=19
@DT78 - I don't think it's about playing games and 'ramping up'.
I think it's genuine and well executed tactics taking out not only the supply lines but any command and control, air and sea defense, fuel supplies etc...
Usual caveats, not yet confirmed etc. but lots of claims on Twitter that the Admiral in charge of Russia's Black Sea fleet was killed in today's attack on Sevastopol. This is is a man who has overseen months of cruise missile attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. So if the claims are true, whilst not celebrating his (or anyone's) demise, I won't lose too much sleep over it.
https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1705282007398252841?s=20
4 missiles hit the naval HQ
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705310856093856160?t=ofvCLFkh0hraDssLJLIUNg&s=19
I thought there was just one soldier missing?
seems Azerbaijan is also settling some scores
https://www.rferl.org/a/top-russia-navy-officer-killed-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh/32602846.html
I think it’s genuine and well executed tactics taking out not only the supply lines but any command and control, air and sea defense, fuel supplies etc…
Absolutely. Crimea and its forces have many facets other than the Black Sea Fleet (BSF).
Crimea-based aircraft and shipping launch missiles. The attacks on Crimea will slow attacks on Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure this winter.
BSF has land-based forces operating further north on the front-line and it maintains logistics routes from Russia into southern Ukraine
The threat to world grain supplies and the ability to foment trouble between (and within) the EU and Ukraine over exports has been proven over the last year and has developed this month with Poland, Slovakia and Hungary making their own import rules in defiance of the EU Trade Commission. Opening new routes into the Black Sea through Romania minimises export problems while simultaneously attacking BSF assets undermines Russia's blockade of Black Sea grain shipping and makes the trade more viable for insurers
Russia now has a choice; leave Crimea or divert frontline resources to its defence
And on the Polish statement from PM Mateusz Morwiecki on the 21st,
(President) "Duda clarified Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morwiecki’s September 21 statement that Poland would no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine and explained that Poland would continue to fulfill weapons supplies agreements with Ukraine but would not transfer new weapons that Poland purchases for its own military.[19] Duda also stated that the potential conflict between the two countries regarding the export of Ukrainian grain along European land routes does not “significantly affect” the two countries’ relationship." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-22-2023
So, if the tankies are to be believed, we have to be really careful to not provoke Russia or they might unleash WW3, but then Russia just accepts a lame apology when their peacekeepers get killed. Does anyone take Russian threats seriously anymore?
The group said Kovgan was killed when Azerbaijani forces opened fire at a vehicle transporting Russian peacekeepers. The 52-year-old had been appointed to the post of deputy commander of the peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh two months earlier.
The Kremlin said on September 21 that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which he offered his apologies and expressed condolences over the deaths of Russian military personnel during what Baku called “an anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia is keen to keep Azerbaijan onside. Neither Russia nor Iran want Azerbaijan to cede to EU and Israeli influence
Isw report makes interesting reading today,
Has it been confirmed if any senior offices were injuries in the svesatapol strike a crew days ago? I haven’t see anything as of yet
Has it been confirmed if any senior offices were injuries in the svesatapol strike a crew days ago? I haven’t see anything as of yet
Not confirmation as such. A Ukrainian source, but claims Black Sea Fleet commander and 34 other officers killed and 105 wounded.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1706261192459616501?t=agPabB4Zm0AHwmuGKiinUw&s=19
Osh, that's gotta sting.
Usually I try and show a bit more decorum when discussing those who have died but Admiral Sokolov will have personally and knowingly signed off on dozens of cruise missile strikes on entirely civilian targets in Ukraine purely to sow terror and pain amongst non-combatants so... stuff him.
There are also rumblings today that the Ukrainians have managed to breach another line of Russia defenses near Verbove amongst reports that whilst the defensive works themselves remain formidable the Russians are running out of troops available locally to man them.
As always, fog of war and it could all be reversed by tomorrow morning, but progress continues to be made, I just hope the tipping point is reached soon.
Thats a huge strike if they really did cause that many deaths, tbh the 'one missing' line from Russia seemed clearly bs.
ISW talk about how the Russians aren't retreating to the second line of defence, but choosing to counter attack the Ukrainian breakthroughs to try to not loose ground as the do not want to be seen as loosing territory and buying time. Claimed it is costing alot of Russian (and presumably Ukrainian) lives. Read ukr have armoured vehicles operating beyond the first line now which means they are through the minefields. Or at least the primary ones. Feels like its a matter of time before ukr make a proper breakthrough, unless the time Russia is buying with lives is to lay even more mines....
As I see it, the problem with all the layers of fixed defence is that it makes armour slow down, which makes it vulnerable to the saturation of artillery and dug in anti tank teams.
tbh the ‘one missing’ line from Russia seemed clearly bs.
I think what that means is that they have found at least a toenail of all of the others. Technically they aren't missing they are just not quite in one place anymore.
Yes, which is why progress has been slow as Ukraine seems to actually care about the lives of it's soldiers and is not just throwing people into the grinder. That and the fact they don't have the luxury of air superiority like NATO would have.
ISW talk about how the Russians aren’t retreating to the second line of defence, but choosing to counter attack the Ukrainian breakthroughs to try to not loose ground
If this is true then it's weirdly good news, the best tactic for Russia right now would be to hunker down in their fortified positions and bleed the attacking Ukrainians white, maximising defenders' advantage, just as the Ukrainians themselves did in Bahkmut.
If they're being ordered out into the open to counterattack the casualties will be horrendous and make it harder for Russia to hold them for the next inevitable push and makes a real collapse of the line that bit more likely in future.
This all leans into my feeling that this situation will look utterly intractable and bogged down until suddenly things start moving very quickly.
Seems Ukrainian claims of the demise of the Black Sea fleet commander may have been premature.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1706664937739960810?t=mxLht8-QSjaLStY4XvAQ2Q&s=19
Seems Ukrainian claims of the demise of the Black Sea fleet commander may have been premature.
He blinked, so it's definitely real.
IANAGeneralUnderAQuasiMilitaryDictatorship, but I would have assumed he might be invited to explain how/ why his headquarters had just been blown up. But then my military knowledge is mostly limited to a mix of history lessons and the cut scenes from Red alert.
Again, IANAGUAQMD so what do I know.
Considering how much of an easy propaganda coup it would been for Russia to just wheel him out a few days ago I remain highly suspicious that he's only now just surfaced and in such an easily spoofed manner.
Russian could of course just be being really bad at comms but it strongly suggests that even if he is still on this earth he's in a pretty sorry state.
Guess they're trying to buy time whilst they try and work out how the hell Ukrainian military intelligence knew the exact time and location of that meeting, an adversary with that kind of intel and access to a container full of Storm Shadows can inflict all sorts of pain on your command structures.
I read on kyiv post they claim ukraine paid some unhappy russian officers for the information which lead to the strike. whether that's further psyops to further russian paranoia I don't know
I also see that Ukraine are going big on winding up about a new underwater drone with 200kg warhead designed for [s]bridges[/s] a bridge.
It's either true, and Kerch may be going big badaboom soon...
...or it's great misinformation that will have Russia installing more dolphins, nets, sensors and very paranoid bridge guards...
In war, the first casualty is the truth
Etc
Rumours on Twitter that the Ukrainians have gone all in south of Robotyne……….
Seems like they'll have ATACMS with a cluster warhead very soon, amongst other things I'd have thought that's ideal for obliterating a lot of Russian aircraft parked up in airfields on occupied territory (especially KA-52's). We'll soon see how effective covering them in tires is...
I had not realised how / what these ATACM things are.
The cluster warhead covers 1km2 with 950 explosive rounds. Basically clearing the 1km2.
By heck.
There’s a few warhead options for ATACMS, either a big warhead for hardened targets, or the cluster option for area attack on targets in the open.
For simplicity, the ATACMS is fired from the HIMARS platform, with the 6 rocket cassette replaced by 1 big one. Much greater range and a bigger warhead. The missile can manoeuvre too.
The Economist is reporting that Russia is currently spending 40% of its GDP on the war effort. 40%!!
Tbh I'm surprised its not more, if you compare to the level of aid given by US, Europe and combine with Ukraines own spend. It probably dwarfs what Russia is spending
See some commentry suggesting the BS naval office might have been joining that conference from a hospital bed as he is proped up on a pillow.
But what is that actually? A big percentage of a small number? Russia, Canada and Italy have similar GDP numbers but only two of these countries could boast indoor toilets...
Plus, how much will get syphoned into the pockets of who knows who....
Doesn't really matter how much of your GDP you commit if all your engineers and computer whizzes are either being shovelled into the front lines or have already fled the country to avoid being drafted so that you can't produce the more advanced systems or develop new ones.
Also worth noting that Russia is having to go to these lengths just to barely hold Ukraine at bay at a time when they still have the advantage of Soviet era reserves and manufacturing capacity, that advantage is dwindling rapidly as Western domestic production ramps up and even the old Soviet reserves start to run dry.
As always, the deciding factor will be whether or not the West can remain united and stay the course.
The Economist is reporting that Russia is currently spending 40% of its GDP on the war effort. 40%!!
For comparison, the UK went to 52% in 1945.
I can't see how Russia can continue at that level.
Also, the equipment differences are only going to increase, unless the orange shit gibbon gets elected.
But what is that actually? A big percentage of a small number? Russia, Canada and Italy have similar GDP numbers but only two of these countries could boast indoor toilets…
More pessimistically it's an illustration of how hard it is to win a war. It's almost winter again and despite everything the west has thrown into it the Ukraine hasn't made much progress. We've been talking about laying the groundwork for the spring counteroffensive with various types of bombing campaigns since this time last year. Maybe we should just have been more specific about which spring.
For a bit of perspective, the US spent 2.5% of their GDP on the Apollo Moon Program, and that is still thought of as mind boggllingly huge amount. 40% is just staggering. It makes you wonder how that can be sustainable.
Perun did an interesting bit on war economies, and how they are able to keep functioning...until they don't