Forum menu
Best he stays away from any windows.
Best he wipes any door knobs and wears protective gloves as well as always making his own tea as well.
suggestions those aircraft were downed but ukr saboteurs not friendly fire.
and crazy stuff from progorzhin, making an enemy of putin and ru army, who supply his mercenaries. can't see a way out for him and Wagner now, must have lost it surely?
maybe he is alive in Ukraine precisely because he appears to be challenging putin, ukr must know where he is
Might not the most news worthy site but a photo of the bandaged hand is a fly in the ointment
We seem to be returning to the halcyon days of last year when myriad senior RU commanders were getting smoked by the Ukrainians, primarily because of poor comms protocols and discipline. This was exacerbated by the need for them to be close to the action as nobody in the Russian military is allowed/can be trusted to make operational decisions without it going up the chain of command.
In brief the UA struck a Russian HQ building in Klishchiivka (which is 5km or so due SSW of Bakhmut) and killed two (as admitted now by the Russians) and possibly three Colonels. Which means the soldiers left are going to be even more headless chickens than usual..
Remember, once you use malware, people can find it, address it and tell the rest of the world. It’s possible that the Russian state actors are being as slowly starved of ‘ammunition’ as the ground troops.
I'm very skeptical of the supposed Russian prowness at cyberwar. The U.S. used to play it up, but the NSA would have been watching and keeping their cards carefully hidden. The servers that run most of the financial systems online are controlled by American companies so the U.S. government can get secret court orders to force Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc. to handover data about the cybercrime groups operating out of Russia, China, North Korea, etc. They will sit back and watch in order to learn how the Russian hackers work and to deceive the Russians into thinking they are operating undetected, but when war breaks out, the NSA just shuts it all down.
U.S. government can get secret court orders to force Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc. to handover data about the cybercrime groups operating out of Russia, China, North Korea, etc.
They don't need court orders, the major tech companies do quite a lot to help anyway, e.g. https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2023/03/15/russia-ukraine-cyberwarfare-threat-intelligence-center/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65585951
Looks confirmed lukashenko is a rabbit of negative Euphoria..
Ie not a happy bunny
Fear of Russian aggression driving another neutral country closer to NATO. Ireland this time - not membership but closer cooperation because of fears of subsea cable sabotage.
.
Ireland this time – not membership but closer cooperation
That's quite a development.
Zelensky in the UK just now to discuss further support, not even sure what they might be after this time around, guess we'll find out later this week.
Maybe we can offer to send Suella Braverman over to help on the front lines.
That’s quite a development
+1
(Timeline in relation to WW2/NATO) the Irish have been very protective of their neutral status since WW2 began and refused the invitation to join NATO in 1949.
They pretty much handed air defence off to the UK and used Cessna 172 aircraft for years.
As Russia has become more invasive Ireland is having to invest fully in modern systems to detect air space intrusion rather than rely on NATO.
They've traded the Cessna for 8 Pilatus PC-9 aircraft in the close air support role but their VIP Learjet is quicker 🙂
Ireland does get involved in NATO peacekeeping, etc
Has this Prigozhin / Shrek Look a Likey fellow got some shell shock or other mental health issue?
Or is it a game being played out for his gain somehow when Pooters get's lobbed out shortly?
Maybe we can offer to send Suella Braverman over to help on the front lines.
I don't see that Putin's done anything to deserve that particular fate 🙁
[url= https://i.ibb.co/Y3Xn1JW/IMG-4701.gi f" target="_blank">https://i.ibb.co/Y3Xn1JW/IMG-4701.gi f"/> [/img][/url]
So it turns out that the two helicopters Russia shot down were MI-8MTPR-1 (say that after a few vodkas) were their all singing all dancing electronic warfare, radar jamming, missile jamming ones.
That's either bad news for their future electronic warfare exports, or good news for their anti aircraft exports.
With the number of aircraft taken out in a single day it really makes me think it was ukraine, either some sort of communications interception order the AA to engage or even SF taking over a AA or maybe even as ru has suggested sabatoeurs, presumable with missles….5 aircraft in a single day seems to much of a coincidence for friendly fire accidents
And not sure I believe the story about prog offering up ru positions. He relies on ru for equipment and ammunition, trying to play both sides is not going to end well at all, cannot see any gain for Wagner, and surely after what they have done there will be little sympathy from the ukr side. Unless of course he has gone full fruit loop
Surely Ukraine must already know where the ruskies is are ?
So it turns out that the two helicopters Russia shot down were MI-8MTPR-1 (say that after a few vodkas) were their all singing all dancing electronic warfare, radar jamming, missile jamming ones.
That’s either bad news for their future electronic warfare exports, or good news for their anti aircraft exports.
Or it was a SACLOS system using laser beam riding technology, so jamming's not really doing much.
Im of the opinion the 4 aircraft were taken down either directly by the Ukrainian army or Ukrainian sympathisers. I done believe the Russians are that incompetent to make the same mistake 4 times, in one day, and I dont believe the Ukrainians would admit to attaching Russian assets in Russian territory
I'd read it was 5 aircraft by the end of the day. bad day for ru airforce
On the face of it it looks like the Russian cranked all their air defence systems up to 100 because Ukraine is now using Storm Shadows and it immediately started taking pot shots at friendly aircraft.
No matter the truth, Russia has to once again choose between "Broadcasting our own incompetence" or "Admit Ukraine played a blinder" neither of which is exactly good for them.
The Ukrainians have nothing to gain from claiming responsibility so they're happily sitting back watching the whole mess unfold.
Continuing to edge along that particular path
This summer we will commence an elementary flying phase for cohorts of Ukrainian pilots to learn basic training. This will adapt the programme used by UK pilots to provide Ukrainians with piloting skills they can apply a different kind of aircraft. This training goes hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets – Ukraine’s fighter jets of choice.
I do wonder if the thing they are waiting for is to take out enough Russian air defence and air assets to allow the Ukrainian planes to operate. It would make for a very different battle to have air superiority....?
Another crack in the wall...
Moldova looking west instead of east. Perhaps confident Russia could not now invade or influence as it has before? Finally fed up of the meddling in Transnistria?
What other countries may also be eying up such a move?
I was wondering what would happen with Transnistria as a result of the situation on Ukraine. It's not like Russia can easily get troops there in a hurry any time soon so if there was ever a time to 'deal' with it...
Moldova and (NATO member) Romania have been toying with the idea of unification as well, which adds a whole new dimension to the situation. The two nations are very very close diplomatically so Romania is likely to have Moldova's back whatever happens.
Moldova grabs Transnistria back, possibly with some kind of indirect assistance from Ukraine, then promptly unifies with Romania and dares Putin to do anything about it. It would have been a crazy suggestion 18 months ago, but now...
This is worth reading to the end
https://www.thebulwark.com/why-putin-attacked-ukraine-when-he-did/
This is worth reading to the end
What I don't really understand is when all this kicked off, a big deal was made of freezing Russia's assets.
Why, if you know they would likely get frozen, would you leave your money in western banks? That $650billion sovereign fund could have caused merry hell in the banking system if they'd withdrawn it. Strategically they could have done some damage to the financial systems and made Ukraine a side story whilst we tried to deal with another round of bankrupt banks?
Was there not actually that much Russian government money aboard to freeze?
Moldova grabs Transnistria back, possibly with some kind of indirect assistance from Ukraine, then promptly unifies with Romania and dares Putin to do anything about it
Moldova is a bit of an odd one. Internationally everyone, including Russia, recognises that Transnistria is part of Moldova.
There are about 1500 "Russian" troops in Transnistria that maintain the independence that Russia doesn't recognise and the people get free Russian gas and other benefits. I say "Russian" because the vast majority of the troops are Transnistrian granted Russian passports, so its status is maintained essentially through bribery. This means that Moldova can't join the EU because it doesn't control its borders, but the EU is counter-acting this by opening trade while Russian trade falls away.
Moldova is now getting its gas from Romania and Ukraine has tightened border controls with Transnistria isolating it further from Russia
Moldova has always thought that Russia would take the whole of the country, but that would need a win in Ukraine, which is unlikely
Why, if you know they would likely get frozen, would you leave your money in western banks?
Some assets are harder to move than others plus it wasnt clear they would get frozen. If we look at the invasion of Crimea that had very limited sanctions as did the other actions Russia had engaged in.
If it had gone to plan or even close to plan (successful invasion in say less than a month) then its not unreasonable to assume whilst there would have been some sanctions it would have been very hard to get the political will to get them at the level they are now.
Seems like the Storm Shadows were hardly announced before they were put to use. I wonder if that means they had actually been already supplied for some time before the announcement. Or do you really just take them out of the box and press Send.
I've been a lurker on this thread since the beginning, and following single track's best form it's been an informed and insightful trove of information - so thanks all.
I'm living in Estonia at the moment and a friend pointed me in the direction of the article below - I don't think it's been linked already so apologies if it has, but it's worth a read (settle in - it's a proper full piece). It's from a local paper in Oct 2022 and is based around interviews with the heads of counterintelligence from Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania. It was translated into English (pretty well, aside from a couple of clunky sentences) at the request of Estonia's ex-president, who thought is was a valuable piece and should be made available to an international audience, and what could be more international than Singletrack ;)......
As an aside the rumor here (no sources just 'informed' acquaintances) is that since the weekend it's the newly arrived Patriot systems that have been downing Russia's 'un-interceptable' Kinzhal Hypersonic missiles. The irony is that Russia sent in the Kinzhals (of which it has very few) to take out the newly arrived Patriot systems.
I imagine the work to integrate western weapons has been ongoing for a while, working out what can/can’t be done.
Once the integration is done, it’s much simpler as a pilot to integrate an extra missile than to train a whole new type of vehicle.
I’ve been pondering on what the long range missiles/drones announced will be.
Tomahawk is a long-range, all-weather, jet-powered, surface-attack subsonic cruise missile used primarily by the U.S. Navy and the United Kingdom Royal Navy in ship- and submarine-based land-attack operations. The missile also launches from land sites.
Apparently the US army have selected tomahawk as an option for them and “land based launch capability is expected by mid 2023”
I imagine the work to integrate western weapons has been ongoing for a while, working out what can/can’t be done.
My assumption is that any GPS guided missile that can be launched from land should be able to be adapted to a new aircraft fairly simply, whereas something that relies on the launch aircraft for guidance will be much more difficult. It will need an adapter to mount it to the hardpoints on the aircraft, but that should be a fairly simple engineering job. Then it will need a coupling for the electrical systems so that the aircraft can launch it. Being GPS guided, they won't need to be fully integrated into the aircraft's avionics, they'll just need something programmed to send the launch signals to the missile - i.e. to mimic what the ground-based launcher does. Then they will need to practice with dummy missiles to make sure it separates from the aircraft safely, but if the missile's already been tests for separation from other aircraft, a lot of the potential problems should already be known.
It depends on the missile and what you want it to do. Missiles that are going to be launched by an aircraft at a static or very slow moving target on the ground will need different systems to air to air missiles that need to be able to track (or be guided) to their targets, and can be defeated relatively easily by manoeuvring out of the way.
As an aside the rumor here (no sources just ‘informed’ acquaintances) is that since the weekend it’s the newly arrived Patriot systems that have been downing Russia’s ‘un-interceptable’ Kinzhal Hypersonic missiles. The irony is that Russia sent in the Kinzhals (of which it has very few) to take out the newly arrived Patriot systems.
@Jasonlaw welcome to the thread! I see you've been on the forum a lot longer than me though so I won't say welcome to STW. Useful to have some input from someone a little closer to the conflict than most of us on here. Article looks interesting, I will have a proper look later.
The irony is that Russia sent in the Kinzhals (of which it has very few) to take out the newly arrived Patriot systems.
Last night's attack was using 3 types of missiles plus drones all at different speeds coming from different directions
I guess in an attempt to confuse air defence and take out those patriots
Impressive that they were all intercepted
$100million worth of state of the art russian missiles neutralised , good advert for the Patriots
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1658350433780244482?t=oeTopuwdRIvvSjd2oE8rnQ&s=19
@thols2 The aircraft also needs to tell the missile at the moment of departure what the aircraft is doing, in realtime, so the missile knows things that might disturb it aerodynamically and physically as it gets going (wing sweep on Tornado, droops, gear position, attitude, engine thrusts, pod vibration... there's probably dozens more, IANARS). Basically even fire & forget devices aren't simply left to fall away.
some interesting footage of the patriot system firing on that thread linked above. looks like a fireworks display. suggestion it was taken out when it ran out of missles. there is an explosion very close to where the missles were being fired from. hope thats not true.