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 pk13
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https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=1533e1
Just like this fella now


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 3:40 pm
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People surmising the jet fuel as an attempt to choke out the air intake on the drone and bring it to stall.
I do like how the USA keep putting out footage it keeps the conspiracy loons in check at home a lesson learned after trump used it to his advantage

You'd have just flown above and ahead of it and dumped fuel directly onto the intake. Approaching from the side and the rear and then banking sharply isn't going to do much, especially as the drone is continually moving AWAY from rather than INTO the discharge.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 3:43 pm
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All major countries conduct surveillance on each other. Russia and China routinely shadow U.S. Navy ships and exercises. It doesn’t cause any furore,

I didnt say normal spying would cause a furore thols, i said if China flew a drone for example near the Hawaiian islands, where the US fleet are based, or near to the US west coast. THAT would cause a furor with fox readership.

China uses spy satellites(and balloons), but as far as im aware they dont fly drones near to US navy bases far outside Chinese territory, or close to the US mainland.
Unless of course you know other.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 3:47 pm
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I wonder why they didn’t they use a Globalhawk? It’s a better ISR platform. Risk perhaps?

Pretty sure they have used them - someone linked to one flying in that area a few months ago.
Maybe just practicalities of which drone is needed at what time, maintenance, priority mission/time etc?

I see that an FSB agent smoked in the HQ building in Rostov-on-Don, leading to a small fire.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 3:49 pm
 pk13
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@daffy
I did think that but I assume a prop engine can fly way slower than a jet. So if the drone slows right down the jets just wizz by or have to do stuff like we have seen. Pilots no claims will be gone after the dash cam footage is uploaded


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 3:52 pm
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i said if China flew a drone for example near the Hawaiian islands, where the US fleet are based

Spying within another country's airspace or territorial waters will always cause trouble, it's a serious provocation (check out Francis Gary Powers, for example). In this case, the drone was in international airspace. Surveillance in international airspace is utterly routine. In this instance, the Russian pilot was totally out of order.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 3:56 pm
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Anyone know what the loitering airspeed is for a Reaper?
Must be really tricky to close approach in a large interceptor jet with a stall speed of ...mph?
Certainly too much of a difference for the Ruskies to try the old Spitfire / V1 wing flip trick!!


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 4:00 pm
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From Wikipedia "with a maximum speed of about 260 knots (480 km/h; 300 mph) and a cruising speed of 150–170 knots (170–200 mph; 280–310 km/h)"

SU27 landing speed is 140 knots so it can get down to similar speeds as the Reaper but won't be very manoeuvrable.

Most reports I've seen don't think the collision was intentional for the very good reason that it's very risky for the pilot. The intent appears to have been using dumped fuel to bring the reaper down.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 4:24 pm
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Comparing its (published) range of around 1100 miles with deployment time of 24-27 hours suggests a loiter airspeed of as little as 50-60mph; I'm no glider expert but with those very long, straight narrow wings, I'd have though that this speed would make sense for it in loiter mode, practically able to hover over a target into a headwind?


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 4:35 pm
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Doesn't look like it's going very fast as the prop is freewheeling slowly before it's whacked.

Nb the damage is one bent and one twisted blade. They're variable angle and it's out of position


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 4:40 pm
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gofasterstripes
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Doesn’t look like it’s going very fast as the prop is freewheeling slowly before it’s whacked.

I assumed the apparent slow rotation speed is just a strobing artefact from the video footage? I'm not sure you can easily ascertain the actual prop speed from that vid.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 5:26 pm
kelvin, relapsed_mandalorian, mattyfez and 1 people reacted
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They could have downed it with cannon fire or a missile without any risk to the jet. The collision only happened because the pilot was dicking around and cocked up.

Firing on an aircraft, uncrewed or otherwise, in international airspace is going initiate a response.

Hence the recklessness instead of very overt armed aggression.

The Reaper like the Predator before it all have zeroise protocols both manual and automatic to erase all data held onboard.

The homeplate is where the recording from the sensors is done, along with routing data, etc.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 9:03 pm
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I assumed the apparent slow rotation speed is just a strobing artefact from the video footage? I’m not sure you can easily ascertain the actual prop speed from that vid.

Think I have a video somewhere of one, let me see if I can find it.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 9:04 pm
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Global Hawks have been in use over the Black Sea since the beginning of the war.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 11:09 pm
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How many "weather balloons" can you have for $32 million I wonder.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 11:25 pm
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99.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 11:28 pm
Del, kelvin and Earl_Grey reacted
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99.

I wonder if Nena would agree at that price.


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 11:49 pm
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I believe she said "99 red balloons - go buy"


 
Posted : 16/03/2023 11:51 pm
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This example shows the difference between normal surveillance operations and illegal provocations. Countries are allowed to operate their ships in international waters. Nobody has a problem with that. Trying to screw up commercial aircraft communications and navigation equipment is illegal provocations. China is upset that Australia is buying nuclear powered submarines so they are flexing their muscles to show that they can disrupt the region if they feel like it and that other countries are too scared to retaliate militarily.

https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1636605557401595904


 
Posted : 17/03/2023 7:04 am
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I believe she said “99 red balloons – go buy”

👏👏👏


 
Posted : 17/03/2023 8:18 am
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The mad effort to carry out Putin's order & capture all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of March is looking increasingly unlikely to succeed yet cost Russia huge numbers of soldiers

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1636757384843370500?t=yd03hyoUb_bgmgc-LG5pAQ&s=19


 
Posted : 17/03/2023 10:28 pm
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Seven to one ratio of RU vs UKR killed in Bahkmut apparently.

Gruesome tactics - send out a group of conscripts armed with a sharp stick and a woolly hat for protection. Make a note of where the gunfire that mows them down comes from. Shoot at said position. Repeat.


 
Posted : 17/03/2023 11:02 pm
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Been reading a book on Stalingrad..
The Russian side ability for suffering and losses is staggering. On a scale many times what is happening in Ukraine. Its very similar in that the weather amd tactics play a significant part in the way attacks are planned and executed.
But the numbers..... WW2 was another level of destruction altogether


 
Posted : 17/03/2023 11:26 pm
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Been reading a book on Stalingrad..
The Russian side ability for suffering and losses is staggering.

Russia is a different country now. Putin shares Stalin's utter lack of concern for human life, but Russians really did face an existential threat back then. Germany's policy of genocide in Eastern Europe meant that surrender just meant death anyway, so you might as well just fight to the death. In this war, Ukraine is in the same position - surrender means genocide, so they aren't going to surrender. Russia, as a country, does not face an existential threat, they could just withdraw their soldiers and the war would be over. Putin is keeping this going for his own fantasies of being remembered as the man who rebuilt the Russian empire, but the soldiers on the ground know how pointless their attacks are. Their morale must be utterly nonexistent, they are forced at gunpoint to make suicidal attacks on Ukrainian positions for the sake of a few meters of ground. All they are doing is frittering their army away, they aren't making any useful gains.


 
Posted : 18/03/2023 4:55 am
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Russia is a different country now

Arguably not. When Germany invaded Poland in 1939, Russia embarked on a pre-war agreement with Germany to split E.Europe and invaded E.Poland a couple of weeks later, followed by Finland, parts of the Baltic states and Romania.
Russia didn't formally declare war then, as now; they annexed Polish territory, its people and held rigged elections
It wasn't until 1941 that Germany invaded the Soviet Union and Russians faced an existential threat


 
Posted : 18/03/2023 8:54 am
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In addition to that.

The population of the Soviet Union in 1940 has been estimated at 194 million, today the Russian Federation has a population of 143 million.

In 1950 the median age is estimated as 23.37, 2020 was 38.6

Millions of those Russian casualties weren't Russian at all, Ukraine and others formed large parts of the Red Army and even greater parts of civilian deaths as the western parts of the Soviet Union fell to the Nazis.

The Russians have no innate ability to suffer more than their former Soviet dominions do. Nor have they really exceeded the misery inflicted on their former Soviet dominions.

Ukraine itself was conquered by both Hitler and Stalin with brutal repression of dissent inflicted by two of the worst human beings to ever have existed.


 
Posted : 18/03/2023 9:02 am
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Some interesting graphics on twitr showing Russian tank losses. Pinch of salt on the actual numbers but they claim to be hitting more armour every day.
With total numbers into 4 figures, now i dont know if that includes tracked APC types too. As most people call anything big, green and heavy with any gun on top a tank.
I don't know how many serviceable units they started with, but they must be running out of replacement units as Western MBTs are deployed
Talks of dropping tear gas from drones into trenches, which is worrying


 
Posted : 18/03/2023 9:10 am
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According to the Oryx website, which a has photographic evidence of each kill;

As of today Russia has lost 1854 tanks, of which 550 were captured

Out of a total 9678 AFV lost.

Mind boggling 😵‍💫


 
Posted : 18/03/2023 9:26 am
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Well I giggled.


 
Posted : 19/03/2023 6:41 pm
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Ive not seen this anywhere else apart from LCI and a very pro Ukrainian account, if anyone can verify itd be appreciated

https://twitter.com/LCI/status/1637187448072552449?t=Dj4NkQ0esEEEwxm3BXGHnA&s=09

If Ukraine fails to defend its independence, we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter the conflict," says Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Polish Ambassador to France


 
Posted : 19/03/2023 8:37 pm
 pk13
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I don't think Poland can stomach being in that position again even with NATO behind them so I can see why going on the offence is better than waiting for 100thou Russia troupes at the boarder.
The stakes are frightening


 
Posted : 19/03/2023 10:01 pm
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If Ukraine fails to defend its independence, we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter the conflict,” says Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Polish Ambassador to France

It's literal, "If Ukraine fails to defend its independence..." i.e if Russia "wins"

The peoples of Poland and Ukraine haven't had the best history as neighbours, but they both detest the Russian State far more.
Recent pre-invasion polls have shown a more mellow view of Ukrainians


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 7:55 am
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It’s literal, “If Ukraine fails to defend its independence…” i.e if Russia “wins”

If Russia starts advancing considerably in Ukraine, I do wonder what the west / NATO / close neighbours will do.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 8:24 am
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From Twitter yesterday, signs of Russian drones dropping Satellite distress beacons on AFU positions. The Russians own the satellites these are linked to so pull the data for targeting info....

Obvious solution is obvious... Ukraine drone fly it back across to the Russian camp.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 8:53 am
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Eh? If you have dropped a beacon in a UKR position, then you must have known where that position is in the first place to have flown a drone there?


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 9:40 am
 DT78
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maybe they know the rough location, fly the drone over to drop the beacon to be more accurate.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 9:43 am
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Eh? If you have dropped a beacon in a UKR position, then you must have known where that position is in the first place to have flown a drone there?

Homebrew self guided something or other which uses the emergency beacon system?


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 9:53 am
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Homebrew self guided something or other which uses the emergency beacon system?

Would make more sense, EPIRB's have a system that sends out a literal 'ping' on their frequency so you can locate them by just waving a directional antennae+ receiver and headphones around and walking towards wherever the signal is strongest.

The EPRIB satellite system IIRC works like a reverse GPS, the satellites receive the ping, and calculate between them where it came from, It's not very accurate, hence the 2nd method of doing it on the ground once you've got rescue teams within some proximity.

It's not like SPOT/InReach which uses GPS location and transmits them over a satellite phone link.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 10:42 am
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Would it not be fairly easy to jam or interfere with the locater beacon. Surely, all you'd need to do is mimic the signal at a different location or multiple locations and the detector wouldn't know which one to follow.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 11:12 am
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Been reading a book on Stalingrad..
The Russian side ability for suffering and losses is staggering.

Another factor not mentioned above is modern communications, at Stalingrad Russian troops had no way to communicate with their families back home, no phones and what few letters got through were heavily censored. The folks back home were largely unaware of how their sons were being treated.

Now, even with the Russia state doing it's best to filter out bad news, news of conditions at the front and the horrendous casualties is filtering back, hence why so many fled the draft, why recruiting office keep catching fire and why Putin has been so careful to avoid drafting Muscovites whose families may have connections.

Russia's resolve tends to look utterly unbreakable... until one day it suddenly isn't, see Afghanistan for instance.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 11:28 am
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I guess. But then it would depend on how clever whatever kit the Russians are using is.

I don't design bombs, but hypothetically if I did and was using that sort of guidance, then I'd probably design it to fly to a target with +/- 50m accuracy (because you obviously know where it is), then aim directly at the beacon which I'd just dropped on some weak point. A bit like laser guided munitions, but without actually having to hang around.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 11:43 am
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So what do we think of Xi's visit?

Seems that either: he is going to do nada, other than some quiet increase in supplying Russia with 'things' or there may, just may, be a word to back off to the benefit of all...?


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 2:18 pm
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I suspect it'll be a combination of a public show of solidarity with a fair bit of 'WTF are you playing at Vlad?' Going on behind closed doors.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 3:20 pm
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So what do we think of Xi’s visit?

He's trying to figure out what's best for him. Weakening the U.S., NATO, etc. will be his top priority, but he also needs to manage relations with the West. Putin started a disastrous war and is losing badly, China's not going to throw it's hat in with a losing cause but they might prop him up just enough to get cheap oil and keep NATO distracted. Xi will do whatever he thinks is best for China, he has no loyalty to Putin.


 
Posted : 20/03/2023 3:30 pm
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