The proper generals on social media all seem to think these latest kit announcements are quite significant. Especially the Bradleys being better for the Ukraine Army than tanks. This must hit Russian moral even harder. The old Russian trick used in Syria for announcing ceasefires only to use them for further attacks or other advantage against weaker opponents just isnt going to work here. At last there is optimism not just the Ukrainains have stopped them but they are also going to push them back to the border. Brilliant timing by NATO countries.
I had both Marder and Bradley M2 Tamiya models when I was a kid (and Gepard) back in the 80’s. They looked mean and purposeful in 1:35 plastic is all I can add to this discussion.
I hate war. **** Pootin. Power to Ukraine 🇺🇦
I thought that BBC2 documentary was really interesting.
My main take-away was when the ex soldier commanding the volunteers said that it doesn't matter want deal Zelinsky and Putin strike, their partisan efforts will continue.
Something echoed by a Beau of the fifth column a few days back, namely that Russia doesn't have the numbers to occupy Ukraine. He said that if one counted all the initial forces (150,000) and took the mobilisation claims of 300,000 as true then they might have enough to occupy the East of the country but then the really nasty stuff would start...
Of course more than half the initial force has been either killed or injured and the conscription claims have been inflated two fold,
"I hate war. **** Pootin."
Hate War, Love Tamiya.
Off the the Christmas Airfix thread with you!
The old Russian trick used in Syria for announcing ceasefires only to use them for further attacks or other advantage against weaker opponents just isnt going to work here.
TLDR: That's one possible aspect to the ceasefire. It's also more reason for Russians to support its invasion
In mid-December Moscow announced that there wouldn't be a Christmas ceasefire and proceeded to attack civilian targets during "Western Christmas". The announcement of an "Eastern Christmas" ceasefire so late makes it difficult to comply with even if Ukraine was so inclined, which it isn't.
Ukraine was an Eastern Christian country (theologists, help me out here 🙂 ) as is Russia, but Ukraine has started to celebrate Christmas more according to the western Roman calendar than the eastern Julian calendar.
This is more "evidence" of the decline in Ukrainian morality for the benefit of the Russian home crowd and the lack of secular western morality in supporting Ukraine
Ukraine was an Eastern Christian country (theologists, help me out here 🙂 ) as is Russia
Orthodox?
Mainly Russian Orthodox as above /\/\
Just looks like an easy propaganda hit to me, doubt they’d ever adhere to their own ceasefire, just keep shooting and say Ukraine did it.
Like when (allegedly) the nuclear power plant inspectors quizzed the Russians as to how Ukrainian shelling arrived from Russian held territory to be told the shells changed direction mid flight. (2 caveats, this is what someone on Twitter translated, and yes, guided munitions although I don’t think Excalibur can do a 180)
The Bradley’s have already been spotted in Poland on trains, so have likely already arrived in Ukraine 👍
Bradley’s gun will destroy a T72 at a range greater than the T72 main cannon.
What?
It's 25mm chain gun.
Bradley’s gun will destroy a T72 at a range greater than the T72 main cannon.
What?
It’s 25mm chain gun.
And 2 x TOW anti-tank missiles.
And 2 x TOW anti-tank missiles.
That's not it's "gun".
Here's a Twitter thread on the vehicles that Ukraine will receive. My guess is that Ukraine will have superior strategy and tactics to the Russians and these will be put to very good use.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1611167268431433728
According to General Mark Hertling, who was a Bradley Commander during Desert storm, the 25mm Cannon on the Bradley destroyed all the T72 they came across is Iraq. He states it is the perfect vehicle for UAF.
I imagine the armour piercing rounds it uses has a big impact? You see plenty of footage of the BMP3 cannon doing similar in Ukraine.
From my limited understanding of RF tanks, their fatal flaw is the auto-loader carousel for the main gun, sitting unprotected just under the turret with all the ammunition. As soon as the tank gets penetrated there is a risk of explosion and turret throwing. Russian ammo is also far less stable than NATO. The US spent billions developing munitions that only explode when they are designed to, whereas RF ammo is just about cheap explosive power.
Gen Hertlings comments on twitter...
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1610818228556804096
Good news for the ground people but has there been any advance on countering the missiles?
Germany sending a second patriot battery. Might be handy if things start falling apart in Moscow and someone decides to go nuclear.
Good news for the ground people but has there been any advance on countering the missiles?
There is some suggestion that missiles are in very short supply and replaced with drones; media sometimes ascribe the term "missile" attack to drone attacks.
President Putin has sent the latest Zircon/Tsirkon hypersonic missiles with 1000km range to the area on board the frigate Admiral Gorshkov.
Hypersonic missile technology is very new and didn't have overwhelming results when Kinzhal missiles were launched from aircraft in March. 1000km is a very bold claim
The Sea Sparrow missile has been promised which is designed for close range AA and anti-missile protection for ships. The Ukrainians have adapted their Soviet BUKS ground-based launcher to suit
https://english.nv.ua/nation/us-to-send-sea-sparrow-anti-air-missiles-to-ukraine-media-reports-50295824.html
The Crotale (rattlesnake) air-defence missile has been promised as well by France
Both systems are old but effective to such an extent that China copied the Crotale (and boringly called it HQ-7)
EDIT: Ukraine has claimed 80-100% of drones destroyed more recently, unfortunately, if it's too close in, the warhead can still fall and explode on cities
Today it has been announced that UKraine has adapted the Sea Sparrow missile to be fired from their BUK system, which they had run out of missles for.
Sea Sparrow is a widely available seaborn missile designed to shoot down Anti-Shipping missiles and aircraft. These should be another good addition to the AD network. More Geppards and ammunition are also being sourced.
Today it has been announced that UKraine has adapted the Sea Sparrow missile to be fired from their BUK system
Yes, NATO has tens of thousands of old Sparrows and Sidewinders that can be easily converted to SAM use. I think this system can fire Sidewinders and AMRAAMs. No idea about Sparrows.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1608055485634154496
Not up to speed on the last few pages of the thread so apologies if already asked.
Are there any respected commentators giving a current view on where the war is likely to be headed this year, the mainstream media seems to have gone fairly quiet or has gotten bored of covering it.
the mainstream media seems to have gone fairly quiet
I think it's been fairly static for the last few weeks so that partly explains the lack of coverage.
There is talk of the UAF having troops trained by NATO states ready for a Spring offensive.
There is some suggestion that missiles are in very short supply and replaced with drones; media sometimes ascribe the term “missile” attack to drone attacks.
yep and it seems the drones are much easier to shoot down, the Gepards are v good at this apparently
Spring offensive.
Whereas there is also talk of a Ukraine offensive starting as early as next week when the ground freezes. So who knows?
I follow @ThreshedThought on Twitter. Mike Martin makes some interesting comments and forecasts though only when there is evidence to back them up (as opposed to "I reckon").
Institute for the study of war (ISW) gives daily updates on the current situation - but again based on known facts not conjecture.
Thanks both
Over recent weeks the temps have been above zero, so boggy mud. As of tonight, there is a 10 day cold snap with -15 at night and -8/9 daytime temps. By 8 Jan the ground should be deep frozen to allow manoeuvre.
It also means RF is stuck in a quandry - poorly kitted troops in foxholes will die. Move to shelter and a fire makes you a target for an IR drone/HIMARS.
RF is stuck in a quandry – poorly kitted troops in foxholes will die. Move to shelter and a fire makes you a target
If events since this started are anything to go by, don't think the RF will be overly concerned about the troops one way or the other.
Are there any respected commentators giving a current view on where the war is likely to be headed this year,
From what I can tell, Ukraine is conducting shaping operations. Russia is making extremely costly attacks on towns that have no strategic value and Ukraine is bleeding them dry. The Russian commanders are doing this for marketing reasons - they need to report back to the Kremlin that they are making progress and the Kremlin needs to capture towns for propaganda purposes.
The Ukrainian military commanders know that capturing a few houses is meaningless, what matters is that Russian forces are being degraded by making suicidal attacks against Ukrainian defenses and that will also force them to redeploy troops from other sectors. Plus, the Russians are freezing and struggling with logistics so the longer Ukraine waits, the worse shape the Russians will be in.
The Ukrainian commanders will be watching the Russians and looking for weak points to exploit (and, with NATO satellite and electronic surveillance, they probably have a better picture of Russian deployments and readiness than the Russian commanders do). Once the Ukrainians think they are prepared, they will launch new attacks, but they obviously aren't going to broadcast where or when. Might be tomorrow, might be weeks or months away.
President Putin has sent the latest Zircon/Tsirkon hypersonic missiles with 1000km range to the area on board the frigate Admiral Gorshkov.
Today it has been announced that UKraine has adapted the Sea Sparrow missile to be fired from their BUK system
Yes, NATO has tens of thousands of old Sparrows and Sidewinders that can be easily converted to SAM use.
They don't happen to have a few shore to ship missiles which can also be added to a BUK by any chance do they?
Just need trucks to support the advance. Fuel, ammo, food. First aid. No point in rushing fwd with little to no support..
They can get any wounded back to aid stations quickly ad well.
I think this is all prep, for either a really cold snap or spring, as any wheeled vehicle will get stuck solid in the mud.
Maybe MBT have had their day, with capable single person launched missiles, himars and drones deleting the advantages
.
With all the talk of mud slowing them down, has anyone put heavy artillery on a hovercraft?
Whilst a hovercraft may have the advantage when the mud is thick (and I say may, because I’ve no idea what would happen were you to mount a HIMARS on a hovercraft and let rip, though I suspect it may not be pretty), said advantage would be negated by pesky obstructions like trees, hedges, houses, walls. Maybe the odd inconveniently located cow.
Probably best to return to the drawing board 🙃
has anyone put heavy artillery on a hovercraft?
Russian assault hovercraft. My guess is that enormous rubber tube they use to seal the underbody would be an easy target for enemy machine guns. Unless you can fix punctures under enemy gunfire, you're gonna have to hitchhike.
Maybe MBT have had their day,
If that was the case Ukraine wouldn't be pushing so hard for Leopards, MBT's are still very much relevant but the Russian experience in Ukraine has shown quite brutally how they need to be used in a coordinated fashion with other units in a combined arms operation, if they're sat out in the open by themselves facing an opponent with plentiful access to man-portable ATGM's they very quickly get NLAW'ed, but that's the commanders fault for not having screening infantry with them.
The Bradleys and other IFV's that NATO have just agreed to send are designed to fill exactly this role, the MBT's protect the IFV's and the IFVs' and the infantry they carry protect the MBT's.
If you're a standard infantry platoon hunkered down in a few buildings with just AR's and a machine gun or two to hand, there's still nothing that will ruin your day faster than a MBT being sent to dig you out, they are terrifying machines and damn near unstoppable unless you're fortunate enough to have exactly the right kit to hand.
Wow, that's a lot of Acronyms.
One of the great things with a Bradley is the ability to switch between Armour piercing and HEFrag rounds with the push of a button by the gunner. From Infantry support to tank killer in seconds.
Hopefully trained in the Bradley’s etc already.
Considering how commonly used the Bradley was in Iraq and Afghanistan and how many of the Ukrainian foreign legionaries are veterans of those conflicts I imagine there are a few units out there who won't need to much time to get back up to speed.
The latest US security aid package for Ukraine in full
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3261263/more-than-3-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
That’s a lot of C17 flights!!!! I’m amazed the Russians haven’t gone after supply lines.
I’m amazed the Russians haven’t gone after supply lines.
I don't think they have the means. They don't have precision guided weapons that can attack convoys within Ukraine, they can only attack static targets. They can't launch an attack on supply depots in NATO countries. They really have no choice but to just let the convoys roll.
There must be a limited number of roads/railways being used by the UAF for rsupply from the Polish Airbase at Rzeszow (??) I do wonder if the reason the protest so much is because they know that hitting them would lead to escalation by NATO.
There must be a limited number of roads/railways being used by the UAF for rsupply from the Polish Airbase at Rzeszow (??) I do wonder if the reason the protest so much is because they know that hitting them would lead to escalation by NATO.
Bombing a road doesn't do much good. A bulldozer will fill in the hole in a few minutes. You have to bomb the road at the exact moment a convoy is on it if you want to stop the convoy getting through. Russia can't do that. Railway lines can be repaired in a few hours.
Bridges are an obvious weak point, but they are made of concrete and you need very precise targeting to cause structural damage. If Russia was able to take out Ukrainian bridges, they would have already done that. The reason they're targeting large civilian infrastructure is because they don't have the precision weapons needed to take out things like bridges.
Bombing targets in Poland would escalate the war and lead to a rapid Russian defeat. Putin isn't stupid enough to do that. If Putin wanted a fight with NATO, he would have started it long ago.
After the cold war the military realised we had overestimated many Soviet capabilities. It seems we have repeated this mistake again. Their intel seems low tech and slow, plus very few capabilities live up to their claims.
After the cold war the military realised we had overestimated many Soviet capabilities. It seems we have repeated this mistake again. Their intel seems low tech and slow, plus very few capabilities live up to their claims.
The Russians are juws the practice - its the Chinese we're trying to match at the moment, though possibly they are doing the same thing with hype versus reality.
