I read some commentary on that which seemed plausible.
Basically its only really Germany that CAN supply tanks that Ukraine would be able to field and maintain in relevant numbers.
We cant produce enough Challengers.
And the Abrams is to difficult to keep running.
No idea if thats true, anyone here know better?
To be fair to the US, as a retired US General pointed out, the Abrams requires high levels of maintenance support and drinks fuel making the Leopard a much bettter fit for Ukraine.
Apparently, the U.S. Abrams have depleted uranium armour which would have to be removed before they could be exported. The U.S. has a fairly decent stock in mothballs and the U.S. Marine Corps is retiring them, but they would need to be refurbished and rearmoured to remove any export prohibited technology before they could be exported. On top of that, they use gas turbine engines which burn massive amounts of fuel, even when idling. They are apparently very maintenance intensive, so it would take months or years to set up the infrastructure to support them. Sending refurbished Soviet era tanks makes much more sense as a short-term solution. The Ukrainians are familiar with them and can service and maintain them.
Same thing holds with fantasies of supplying F16s, A10, etc. Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure to maintain them. Supplying spare parts for Ukraine's existing Migs is much more immediate use.
I agree that the Leopard is a great tank and a better option for Ukraine than Abrams or Challenger. But because it's so good, it's in service with at least 5 other NATO members (and a couple of prospective members). It's only Germany though who get grief for not sending them. Germany has sent a lot of kit and some of it is having a massive effect. The Gepard for example which is punching way above its weight in bringing down scores of Shaheed drones on an almost daily basis. I'm not saying they shouldn't send tanks, just that I think they get singled out unfairly for not doing so when others could.
Shaheed drones
Can't help thinking that there's scope for some cigarette-related accident at the drone factory ...
In any case, the current situation will surely have put paid to any dreams Iran might have had of a rapprochement with the West.
Other Leopard users have said they will send them, but germany will not allow (part of the export licence). I have no issue with not sending your best tanks, but the excuses Germany comes up with are just BS.
As I posted earlier, The US Bradley IFV is available in huge numbers and would be perfect.
The phrase "Sh@t or get off the pot " springs to mind.
The fact remains that of the 30 NATO member countries, not to mention other non alliance countries who support Ukraine, not one has sent modern, western manufactured MBTs to Ukraine.
As I posted earlier, The US Bradley IFV is available in huge numbers and would be perfect.
Agreed. That the US appears to be seriously considering sending them is very welcome news indeed!
I'd agree that Ukraine needs the impetus of some game-changing weapons to really push their advantages, the reality is more nuanced unfortunately.
I'll use "release the leopards" as an example:
Which Leopards? The Leopard 2 has been around since 1979, Spain offered L2s that had been in storage for ten years and that were bought in 1995 (new then?). It was going to refurb 40 but that meant getting the necessary vote through the German parliament. The political and engineering logistics were huge and, depending on the spec, they might have had a 120mm gun that couldn't penetrate newer T80 and T90 Russian armour.
The German parliament? They make changes to the export license as pointed out ^^. You'll possibly know my views on contributions by some larger European economies, but in this case they might have a point.
It's important that political calculations don't precipitate an escalation that we (Europe, the world) really don't want.
Moscow is already making this into a NATO destroying Russia conflict to drum up support at home and using this as a mechanism to bypass Ukraine in negotiations.
Imagine the value to Moscow of images of battalions of "NATO" tanks sweeping across the oblasts
Battalions of "NATO" tanks? Possibly more of a hindrance than a help, nip next door and see if they've got a thrunge washer for a T80 engine. No sorry, they're running Abrams gas turbines
How many tanks could the west supply? You want how many? By when? Then there are all of the training, logistics (will my 66tonne L2 fit on a 45tonne T72B transport?) and fighting differences; a gas-turbine Abrams runs hotter than a diesel, how do we mitigate that IR disadvantage?
Ukraine has probably had more tanks donated by Russia than the west could afford to send. Don't forget that the Ukrainians built them and know them inside out
Even supplying the former Soviet, now NATO, states with western kit, training them and sending the Soviet kit eastward isn't simple. NATO has stepped up its alert in those countries so they're needed to be readily available
Bradley's are a possibility, but they're subject to many of the same considerations. The Ukraine has got similar systems and is more used to the driving and engineering tasks because the chassis is common to other vehicles.
Self-propelled guns and anti-aircraft platforms are IMHO less of an issue because they're much further away from the front and they aren't tanks.
Russia has destroyed 400 of the 100 (or whatever the numbers are) HiMARS and similar platforms, so they can't be a problem either 🙂
After previously boasting how his convict army would take Bakhmut, Wagner boss Prigozhin is now getting his excuses in as to why it won't. Russia has thrown everything at this and thousands have died in the process, it has been their main effort, just so Putin could save some face by claiming a victory in the Donbas. But Ukraine holds firm and it seems that Wagner is running out of steam (or under trained/equipped rapists and murderers). There were suggestions that Prigozhin was positioning himself as a rival to Putin, he will be seriously weakened if he fails in Bakhmut. I see an open window in his tea leaves.
More vids from that British guy who went to Ukraine. Not sure I’ve seen these posted since the first vid.
Thanks @kimbers, I’ve binge-watched the first four parts of this. It’s both infuriating and heartbreaking - how the oligarchs came to buy huge former state industries for a song, then speculated on foreign currencies while the entire country ground to a halt thanks to chronic shortages of roubles. The footage of the young child, barely older than a toddler begging for roubles by the roadside will stay with me for a long time.
If you haven’t watched it this documentary is a great explainer of how Russia ended up so fuct
Russia 1985-1999: TraumaZone, Series 1: 1. Part One – 1985 to 1989: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0d3kjmp via @bbciplayer
It’s easy to judge people like Yegor Gaidar as incompetent, but the Bush snr and Clinton administrations bet the farm on economic Shock Therapy opening the door to democratic regorms across the former Soviet Union which failed to materialise.
More vids from that British guy who went to Ukraine.
Really interesting stuff, thanks!
I'm just reading there was an attack on a "concentration of Russian troops" in Chulakivka across the Dnipro river from Kherson on New Year's Eve with possibly several hundred casualties.
Looks like there's been several of those in recent days. In Makiivka up to 600 killed. A concentration of troops in a university, sitting on top of an ammo dump in the basement.
Makiivka
Yes that was mentioned further up the page by uponthedowns.
Yes Ukrainians reporting another strike on nye at Chulakivka
No confirmation or pictures etc or it seems Russian discussion of it?
https://twitter.com/TomacMarti/status/1610301394690400263?t=20cX2EkeWO1n1prujXUo2g&s=19
Another base was attacked, in Sahy district, apparently some photos were published on Telegram with the geolocation tags on them - idiots!
Still stand by my prediction from a month back that if/when the ground freezes hard enough for rapid mass vehicle movement the Ukrainians will look to be on the move again, the fact that the horrendous Wagner assault on Bahmut seems to be finally running out of steam (and convicts) will further free up resources for this.
For the past few weeks the weather has been warm and wet, no dice, but next week it's supposed to get down to -16 in Kharkiv so...
Obviously this is a more complicated decision than 'ground hard = go' and Ukrainians have shown themselves highly adept at Opsec and misdirection so I'm not going to pretend I know exactly what they're going to do, but they have received significant quantities of fresh vehicles and high quality winter gear recently, along with a large number of troops returned from training in NATO countries, I'd be surprised if they didn't try something whilst most Russian troops are mainly focused on not freezing to death.
I’d be surprised if they didn’t try something whilst most Russian troops are mainly focused on not freezing to death.
I think this too. They are a clever and determined bunch, and will capitalise using whatever means they can.
That said, some of the 'stalled' lines are due to geography as much as fighting. They also are hurting badly and there seems growing reports of a lack of men, machines and ammunition. Although that could be some fakery too....
Twittetarti reported breakthrough on the P66 defence line between Kremina and Svatove. AFU on the move again it seems
That part of the line has been fairly spicy for a while, the Russians only attempted a counter attack there yesterday.
It's a bit early to know whether this is big move but even if it isn't, a minor breakthrough at Svatove will force Russia to quickly divert some of their better forces Northwards to Luhansk to stabilise the situation.
Which would sync rather neatly with a more concerted Ukrainian push in the South towards Tokmak when the really cold weather is supposed to hit this weekend.
I'm getting ahead of myself but the Ukrainians do have previous on this front.
Twittetarti reported breakthrough on the P66 defence line between Kremina and Svatove. AFU on the move again it seems
Links please!
Closest I can see is based on this
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/3/7383450/#:~:text=Serhiy%20Haidai%2C%20the%20head%20of,have%20become%20much%20more%20complicated.
https://twitter.com/GermanEmbassy/status/1609933512265633807?s=20&t=U8DaT-sES-7bCz0GWmfcOg
Can’t help but think there’s some statistics abuse going on
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230104-macron-promises-first-western-tanks-for-ukraine
The move to supply the French-made AMX-10 RC to Ukraine -- a light tank model in service since the 1980s that is being phased out in the French military -- represents a significant shift in French military support for Ukraine.
Along with the above “light tanks” they are sending Bastion APCs and already have sent Crotale AD.
The article also highlights a shift in position of Macron
Macron has hardened his rhetoric against the Kremlin in recent weeks, however, accusing Putin of committing war crimes through his "cowardly" and "cynical" attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.In his New Year's Eve message, the French leader addressed Ukrainians, saying: "We will help you until victory and we will build a fair and durable peace. Count on France and count on Europe."
Did anyone else watch https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001grdw last night? I thought it provided some really good insight into things (at least from the perspective of volunteer fighters rather than the regular UA), didn't seem particularly censored either. Fair play to them though, all still well motivated after months of it. Was a bit depressing seeing how poorly that police-based volunteer group was though, given they were headed into front line action
I missed that, I'll give it a watch. Thanks.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1610823616827883520?cxt=HHwWgICwzfDi5dosAAAA
Looks like I'm not the only one expecting things to get a lot louder next week when the ground freezes.
Apparently
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1610828608288743427?t=WVIwiuE-h-ioOt7mtcbYvg&s=19
Not sure how many are actually being sent or if they're any good
Picture is old, but the foreign legion are sending some.
*Check your sources Piemonster*
Did anyone else watch https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001grdw last night?
.
I missed that, I’ll give it a watch. Thanks.
Interesting film. Enthusiasm, bravery and resolve offset by limited training and equipment. Thankfully they have more of the former than the opposition.
Also quite an interesting insight....
Seems to be a few twitter reports that PooTin has called for 36hr ceasefire, he says for Orthodox Christmas.
He said it, ergo it's either a lie or a tactical need.
Possibly just an opportunity to paint Ukraine as the villain to the domestic audience
US confirmed it is sending 50 Bradley IFVs, Germany is sending Marder IFVs AND another Patriot battalion (on top of the US supplied one) and the UK is hinting it may send tanks (pukka MBTs hopefully not French style Chorlton & the wheelies trucks with guns) as part of the next package to Ukraine.
Good to see
Along with the above “light tanks”...snip
TLDR: Your use of inverted commas is apt, these aren't "tanks" as defined by The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) but "armoured combat vehicles" (ACV).
The CFE capped numbers of tanks, with an additional number of ACVs allowed. Russia stopped its participation in the CFE Treaty in 2015 after taking Crimea.
Ukraine has welcomed the donation but, unlike the Bastion APC, the AMX-10RC is old-tech. Hopefully France will the release the far more capable AMX-10RCR (Rénové) when its replacement is in service soon.
Putin had suggested a goodwill ceasefire of the Orthodox Christmas..... which is conveniently bang on when the Ukrainian offensive will probably start.
Which suggests that either he's suddenly filled with holy compassion, or that he and his generals are bricking it at the thought of another Kharkiv style rout.
I'll take option B please.
Interesting few snippets in here. I'm not sure who this professor is, but he seems confident and balanced where there is uncertainty.
- apparently lots of the forced conscripts being told that they are fighting Poland, who have invaded Ukraine and are trying to invade Russia
- lots of effort now going into deflecting criticism away from PooTin
Good to see
Absolutely. The Bradley and Marder IFVs are also classed as “armoured combat vehicles”, depending on version these could be potent vehicles.
Ukraine already has TOW missiles and uses the Bradley chassis underneath the M270 MLRS, so this should be a quick conversion course
Bradley’s gun will destroy a T72 at a range greater than the T72 main cannon. Marder and RCX also capable of destroying anything Russia has on the battlefield.
Combine that with their speed and troop carrying, this is exactly what UAF wants. Ability to drive 1000km on 1 tank, as opposed to a M1A refuelled twice a day.
US has stated 50 Bradley’s. Considering they have thousands in storage, I bet those numbers rise.
Add in the Turkish Kiribi’s arriving, plus French Bastion APCs, the USF just got very mobile!!
Analysts seem to be suggesting that just as Ukraine is receiving lots of new vehicles, Russia is getting very short of them.
One of the defining images of the Kharkiv offensive was of Ukrainian fast attack groups barrelling across fields towards Russian positions in Humm-vees with .50 cals blazing.
Assuming they can squeeze thier enormous solid brass balls into them, the idea of those same units with that same attitude being given Bradleys to rampage through the Russian backlines with is.... intriguing.
snip...RCX also capable of destroying anything Russia has on the battlefield.
I'm not so sure about that, the AMX-10RC is a 1970s design with a gun that was considered good BITD. It's still good today but not against more recent armour. That could be a moot point because I don't know what Russia has left
It has to stop to fire and the ammunition isn't standard to either NATO or Soviet guns, which could be a drawback
It is very mobile and can swim in RC form (RCR's upgrades made it a bit weighty so it lost the ability). Overall a definite plus to Ukraine, but the RCR is better protected
