The inference I took as one possibility, is that his observations suggests an unexpected and dramatic event is increasing in probability. (Unless it’s just a picture of some swans)
At some point, the politics of somewhere that matters WILL change, and that change will lead to some sort of peace, even if temporary. It might be sudden, it might be gradual. It might be soon, or years away (I’m still guessing years)
No idea who Christo Grosev, Bellingcat or the Skripal poisoning suspects are….
Bellingcat and Grozev, this should help
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-bellingcat-unmasked-putins-assassins
Both involved with https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navalny_(film)
Which is worth a watch, although Navalny gets painted in a better light than I think he should.
Skripal, surname of Sergei and Yulia, you’ll better recognise this as the Salisbury poisonings.
Which is worth a watch, although Navalny gets painted in a better light than I think he should.
I heard this was good! I keep meaning to watch it!!
Skripal, surname of Sergei and Yulia, you’ll better recognise this as the Salisbury poisonings.
Ah, yep, thanks! 😀
The inference I took as one possibility, is that his observations suggests an unexpected and dramatic event is increasing in probability. (Unless it’s just a picture of some swans)
At some point, the politics of somewhere that matters WILL change, and that change will lead to some sort of peace, even if temporary. It might be sudden, it might be gradual. It might be soon, or years away (I’m still guessing years)
I see. Thank you for clarifying. That sounds logical in relation to the Black Swans theory.
I shall need to read a bit more onto Taleb "inductive" argument logic because that sounds interesting.
reports of yet more missles being fired.
As long as they are lobbing them at civilian targets and infrastructure that's fewer left to use against military targets,
As long as they are lobbing them at civilian targets and infrastructure that’s fewer left to use against military targets,
I think you have your priorities wrong there, slowoldman! (Or your choice of phrase is clumsy...)
I think you have your priorities wrong there, slowoldman! (Or your choice of phrase is clumsy…)
I'm pretty sure there was a tongue very firmly in cheek there tbh
I'm pointing out that the current Russian tactic is militarily somewhat naive. They are eating valuable resources which they ought to be using to attack the Ukrainian forces. I don't say this as support for attacking civilians, merely commenting on the rather strange priority of targets. There have been many cases of mass attacks on civilian populations in previous conflicts and they are generally, after the event, considered to have had little military impact.
Of course I would prefer if Russian forces would just sod off back to their own country and not attack anyone - military or civilian.
If I remember correctly, Taleb also defined a 'Black swan event as an unknown unknown.
As someone mentioned earlier, wether an event is a black swan or not depends very much on the observer. I think for Putin the black swan is Zelinsky. Putin had no conception of how Zelinsky had transformed the body politic in Ukraine. Putin couldn't see what had happened on the ground there, instead he chose to listen to his advisors, who told him that Ukraine was as divided as ever. (and of course, siphoned off funds).
On the counterfactual note; what would have happened had Russia invaded 4 years ago?, when the political divisions were more pronounced before Zelinsky's election to president Certainly he would have found it easier then than now?
Did he hold off invading whilst Trump was in power? Seeing as the orange one was doing his best to do Putin's work for him by undermining NATO and withholding aid to Ukraine?
I’m pointing out that the current Russian tactic is militarily somewhat naive.
But politically astute? The bigger picture is pressurizing "the West" to stop supplying arms to Ukraine surely?
Also (and I admit I don't know the answer to this...), are the Ukrainian forces/infrastructure more heavily protected by surface-to-air missiles? And, presumably, there are a lot more undefended civilian targets to choose from...
The US did promise some Patriot missile battery to UKAF when Zalensky ws over at Chrimbo seeing Biden . I doubt they are in country yet , or have the personel trained to operate them ready to go But then I would not be surprised if some people qualifed to use them just happened to be knocking around near some Ukraininan Power Plants
Glad I'm not the only one that didn't make the link between some swans and a plot of a plane returning to an airport!😁
But politically astute?
I know what you mean, but it seems to be having the opposite effect tbh- of anything it is lowering everyone's trust in Russia and increasing their resolve to defeat them
And, presumably, there are a lot more undefended civilian targets to choose from…
This is prob closer to the truth imo- just going for the easy targets. They've had poor strategy since the start, and I can't see any sign of it changing yet
I can't see Putin bombing the hell out of civilian targets as anything other than weakness (and barbarism obviously.)
It's not going to make western countries stop arming Ukraine and it sure as hell isn't going to make the average Ukrainian feel anything other than complete hatred for anything Russian for at least a generation.
Putin is showing barbaric desperation in the hope it's perceived as strength. It wasn't long ago he was threatening global nuclear conflict, now he's using grey import drones to hit power stations. Hardly the escalation the world feared, as shit as it obviously is for Ukrainians.
I can’t see Putin bombing the hell out of civilian targets as anything other than weakness (and barbarism obviously.)
<Chewkw>That's also a "Western" tactic* so does that makes "us" barbarian as well</Chewkw>
* See Dresden, Hamburg, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Vietnam, Iraq etc etc
The inference I took as one possibility, is that his observations suggests an unexpected and dramatic event is increasing in probability.
More than one perhaps.
If I remember correctly, Taleb also defined a ‘Black swan event as an unknown unknown.
Russia's invasion plan relied upon their forces conquering Kyiv within three days.
My take is the "Black Swan" is a massive civil war currently happening within the Oligarchs, which is why there are so many accidental deaths. One outcome is Putin being replaced. Although the thought of who replaces him is equally terrifying. Wagner guy Prigozhin or Chechnyan Kadyrov?
@slowoldman I agree the missile attacks dont make any sense. The Russians launch these attacks and then sit back for a few days, and let the Ukrainians make repairs. This attack cost them $500m in missiles, of which they havent got many left. Meanwhile it has no affect on the front lines where they are still being slaughtered. Its just political.
<Chewkw>That’s also a “Western” tactic* so does that makes “us” barbarian as well</Chewkw>
* See Dresden, Hamburg, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Vietnam, Iraq etc etc
Yes, when civilians are targeted. But that narrative only happened during peace time or after a victor is confirmed and usually it is too late because people are already dead.
Besides, the victor(s) set the rules and the dead is dead. Barbarians/heroes are seen as the saviour for the good at the cost of the dead.
"Russia’s invasion plan relied upon their forces conquering Kyiv within three days."
Based on dodgy information, namely that there was far greater support amongst Ukraine's Russian speaking population for the 'mother' country than was actually the case.
A few years earlier Ukraine was much more divided, far fight parties had a greater presence in government and institutions and the Russian speaking population hadn't yet seen how the Russian occupation of Crimea was turning Crimea into a police state / arms dump.They still harboured notions of Russia bringing investment and better days (Crimea being amongst the more deprived Ukranian regions).
Zelinsky managed to find the middle ground and began to bring the country together but Putin didn't realise.
The Patriot isn’t the right solution to the problem of drone attacks in Ukraine. It’s like using a Tomahawk in place of a grenade. It’s too expensive. They’d be far better using a land version of the Phalanx or the RIM SM3. These are smaller cheaper and are more appropriate for drones and non-ballistic missiles.
Interestingly, if you search for Christo Grosev under 'people' in Twitter it comes up as a blank now (it managed to find him when I searched earlier)
Swan Lake, innit? Tchaikovsky is very symbolic in Russia where Taleb is somewhat less so
The White Swan and her lover died to give the other swans their freedom. This led to the evil sorcerer, Rothbart, losing his power and dying (Swan Lake plot in an eggshell)
Swan Lake has had several endings in its 135 year history, romantic, tragic and now possibly a third ending?
In March when TV Rain was closed down in Russia they transmitted Swan Lake. It's also been transmitted when Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko had died
Did he hold off invading whilst Trump was in power? Seeing as the orange one was doing his best to do Putin’s work for him by undermining NATO and withholding aid to Ukraine?
I doubt that this would have stopped Russia's invasion had it been planned for 2020
Trump actually strengthened NATO by pointing out that very few members were contributing as agreed
Trump withheld aid because he was trying get dirt on Joe Biden. Trump also offered other inducements to secure President Zelenskyy's co-operation on this and allegations around Trump's 2016 election as president.
A CIA whistle-blower stepped up as a result
Based on dodgy information, namely that there was far greater support amongst Ukraine’s Russian speaking population for the ‘mother’ country than was actually the case.
Not helped by weak sanctions in 2014 where western countries continued to supply military tech to Russia and buy their gas and oil, continued with NordStream 2, had Russian sympathisers high up in EU countries, etc.
Russia took Crimea with literally a handful of fatalities. Where was the discouragement?
Trump actually strengthened NATO by pointing out that very few members were contributing as agreed
Trump was very damaging to NATO, for some reason he took it upon himself to undermine it (and many other vital international treaties and institutions) to the point that it is very likely one of the contributing factors to the Ukraine war
Trump was very damaging to NATO, for some reason he took it upon himself to undermine it
We've had this exchange before. Please evidence it, in the meantime I'll leave this link...
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_170796.htm
PS I'm not in any way associated with/support Donald Trump
I’m pointing out that the current Russian tactic is militarily somewhat naive. They are eating valuable resources which they ought to be using to attack the Ukrainian forces.
I think Putin believes that attacking civilian targets will demoralize the Ukrainians and they will turn against their government. Putin is badly isolated and his advisors just tell him what he wants to hear. He has badly misjudged pretty much everything about this war and is deluded if he thinks Ukraine is going to capitulate, or that NATO can force them to.
The problem for the Russians is that they lack large stocks of modern precision guided weapons so they can't strike military targets effectively. The missiles they are using are only accurate enough to strike large, immobile targets, which pretty much limits them to civilian infrastructure. Quite likely, the military leaders are terrified of being blamed for failure so they are desperately firing off whatever missiles they have so they can present reports to Putin listing targets destroyed. They will know that the targets have no military value but they don't care, they just need to show that they are blowing stuff up to save their own necks.
In reverse order, "Trump likes to take credit for increased spending by other NATO countries — which have upped their spending on defense by $40 billion, or 15%, from 2016 to 2019 — but he’s wrong to claim spending was “heading down” before he took office." Fact Check.org
"At the end of his tenure, however, the US president had neither withdrawn membership nor substantially undermined the alliance from within." Oxford Academic International Affairs
"Trump boasts he told Nato members he wouldn’t protect them from Russia" Independent (paywalled)
"Trump discussed pulling US from NATO" NYT, also paywalled
"“We have a unique opportunity to open a new chapter in the relationship between North America and Europe.” But will NATO’s leaders take it?" Economist 2021, also paywalled
"As a candidate in 2016, he growled that only those allies keeping a political pledge to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence—“paying their bills” as he put it—should count on America coming to their aid" Economist 2017, also paywalled
He liked to publicly boast and stretch the truth, but none of that shows that he was "was very damaging to NATO" and both the NATO and Oxford links specifically refute that.
EDIT: I've just spotted a load more links, I'll pass on any more, thanks 🙂
Well you did ask! ☺
But also, quite off topic.
timba,
I don't think it's as either or as you describe.
Did Trump's actions lead to European countries upping their defence spending?... Yes.
Did Trump's rhetoric and general stance towards NATO encourage Putin?.. Yes.
On the Taleb theme, it is dangerous to look for too much cause and effect, outcomes and intentions are different things but rash actions can and often do lead to random consequences.
Like your Swan Lake analogy though!
I see another Russian has died, with no explanation given…
@shermer75 - I have to say I’m surprised you don’t know about the Skripals and the Salisbury poisonings, because the entire centre of the city was completely closed down, and it was a major news story for ages, and an excellent tv drama was made about it.
There were also lots of news reports about the two GRU agents and the way they were tracked to and from Moscow, along with references to ¿Bellingcat, who I wasn’t familiar with at the time.
It was of particular interest to me, because of my connection to Salisbury through my late partner, and we were in the city at one point while it was all happening.
This is a fairly ominous article about who might replace Vlad should he suddenly discover a penchant for short, sharp flights from 4th floor windows..
Better the devil you know??
