I’ll try not be too ..
That, was, terrible. How long did it take you to find four in the same photo
Nope, I grew up with links in Cumbria
And again, Ukrainian's demonstrating that brain will overcome the brawn of Pootin's rabble.
Nope, I grew up with links in Cumbria
Scotland lite (runs for cover) 😉
It was the sausage king and his mate that went on an unscheduled flight.
2x window failure.
Bungalows must be a hitman's hardest challenge right now.
They are not even trying to cover them up.
Ah. Maybe it would have been a bit flat.
I’ll try not be too ..
I wonder if he landed on the Lorne
I wonder if he landed on the Lorne
Was he frozen?
I have a suacispision he was pushed.
suacispision
That is not easy to say
I have a suacispision he was pushed.
None of the puns have been great, but that is the wurst
Where was the health and saveloy officer?
Not just those two in India either. Ex head of the Russian ground forces - General Alexei Maslov - died suddenly, as did a navy official in charge of their submarine program. They’re lashing out at anyone who could be perceived to be a threat..
They’re lashing out at anyone who could be perceived to be a threat..
Good. Hopefully one of the threats will decide to act before he gets bumped and manage to do for Putin. I know the risk is getting some other nutter in charge, but we can live in hope.
They’re lashing out at anyone who could be perceived to be a threat..
Paranoia? Or are there genuinely plots afoot? Even if there only one or two plots actually being plotted it would make the top brass a little paranoid about the other three hundred the rummor mill is on about
That's basically the plot of spectre isn't it
Or Putin has his own tower with a massive eyeball
That’s basically the plot of spectre isn’t it
I was thinking a little...
Omg it looks genuine!
The big shipping re-insurers are unlikely to continue cover for ships in the Belarus/Russia/Ukraine/Moldova areas in 2023.
Shipping re-insurance usually runs from 1st Jan each year and insures the insurers against extended risks, e.g. coastal clean-up, because a single insurer couldn't cover the expense of every risk
Turkiye had earlier insisted on proof of insurance to navigate the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to protect them from the cost of damage to their coastline, so expect this announcement to complicate supply to and from the affected countries until alternatives are arranged https://www.reinsurancene.ws/major-ship-reinsurers-to-cease-covering-key-war-related-risks/
reports of yet more missles being fired. sanctions aren't working if russia can still fire hundreds per day. they need to stop the supply
Yep, so much for Russia's stocks being depleted
It looks like Russia has started pounding Ukraine again or at least used it as dumping ground for obsolete ammo. In a long run, if no peace is available, Ukraine will turn into "an experimental" state for both NATO/West/EU and Russia.
Probably most of the arm manufacturers will see this as a good opportunity to test out new weapons and technologies. (I always wonder if someone will come up with "Predator" technologies)
Benefits to the arm manufacturers will be an increased in share prices. Plenty of investors will invest in this sector for good return, especially in the US. Looking back to the history of WWII, US was/is the powerhouse of manufacturing with commercial firms investing heavily in the war efforts.
Not sure whether this is overly optimistic or asking for trouble as it could be worse
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1608380339168366592?s=20&t=alCGrIgOCs6JBERYtoQC8Q
Curious suggestion mind you.
Yep, so much for Russia’s stocks being depleted
Following the 2014 invasion sanctions weren't as strong and several western countries supplied Russia with tech, e.g. tank sighting systems, drone engines, etc.
In 2022 sanctions are a lot stronger but western money has been getting through legally from the beginning to pay for Russian energy.
Iran and N.Korea have mutually evaded sanctions for years, e.g. N.Korea getting Iranian fuel in exchange for weapons. Russia has joined this arrangement and has a land border with N.Korea meaning that it's very difficult to prevent trade.
Widely reported US intel this week suggests that Russia is offering unsold (because of sanctions) Sukhoi SU35 Flanker-E aircraft in another exchange.
It's perhaps notable that the trade involves swaps rather than cash, which indicates that sanctions are working financially.
Not sure whether this is overly optimistic or asking for trouble as it could be worse
It's the nature of war. Until life has returned to normality there is no peace. A moment of victory etc is just that to keep the spirit up but this is no short war. The slow grind will affect all involved until one breaks. Russia knows if they break that will be the end of Russia.
That appears to have little or no relevance to what I posted
That appears to have little or no relevance to what I posted
I scrolled down to the rest of that link and there seem to be plenty of "celebration" of success.
Not sure if you are referring to the first post on that link related to the swans (not sure how that link works in tweeter tbh).
piemonster
Full Member
That appears to have little or no relevance to what I posted
And what you posted seems to have no relevance to this thread either! Or if it does, it's gone right over my head...
Apologies Vlad, just assumed people knew what it meant. PJM has done what I should have.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Christo is normally a pretty astute observer. Mind you, could just be a photo of some black Swans.
A Black Swan event.
I see. Interesting.
But this is war not financial risk?
Or are you referring to this?
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
"A central idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build robustness to negative events and an ability to exploit positive events. "Robustness" reflects an attitude where nothing is permitted to fail under conditions of change.[3] Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models.
The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white"."
Christo is normally a pretty astute observer. Mind you, could just be a photo of some black Swans.
Yes, some explanation to clarify would help otherwise nobody knows what you are referring to. Some of our reference points are different.
So the er Belaruse shooting down of a Ukrainian missile in their territory? The false flag Belaruse/Putin needs?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theoryChristo is normally a pretty astute observer. Mind you, could just be a photo of some black Swans.
From the reference.
Interesting this.
According to Taleb, thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable (such as Hume, Mill, and Popper) focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations.[16] The central and unique attribute of Taleb's black swan event is that it is high-profile. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected – yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight.[citation needed]
So how do you apply his theory or arguments to Ukraine/Russia war?
We all know that decision biases affected the Bay of Pigs (failed "invasion" - example), but how do you apply Taleb views in this case?
Can anyone explain what the black swan and the plane are all about?
Christo Grozev has been involved with Bellingcat for some time and received an award for his work in unmasking the Skripal poisoning suspects. I note that his cryptic tweet shows not one but three black swans.
Grozev is apparently on a "wanted list" according to the Russian Interior Ministry, the Russian ambassador to Bulgaria (Grozev's home country) has apparently been summoned to explain why.
I'm at home with covid and didn't really sleep last night, so someone needs to spell it out for me lol
Can anyone explain what the black swan and the plane are all about?
I think piemonster has confused more than just me with this Black Swan metaphor!
I get that a black swan even is something that seems inconsequential at the time, but with hindsight is discovered to have monumental consequences (thanks for the explaining link piemonster!) but I'm not understanding how that is relevant to a plane taking off and landing in Moscow?
I think piemonster has confused more than just me with this Black Swan metaphor!
I am trying to figure out if piemonster is referring to the unpredictability of the events or something else?
If it is about decision biases then that need to be clarified. Good theory mind.
Slight divergence
According to Taleb, thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable (such as Hume, Mill, and Popper) focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations.
So is he viewing or advocating it from deductive reasoning?
Beyond this, Taleb emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether.[citation needed]
Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.[10]: p. xvii [23
Surely he knows that inductive reasoning is generally, "most of the time", referred to specific unique
individual cases where no two events are the same? No? Yes?
Christo Grozev has been involved with Bellingcat for some time and received an award for his work in unmasking the Skripal poisoning suspects. I note that his cryptic tweet shows not one but three black swans.
Ok, sort of. But still don't really get it to be honest. I appreciate that at this point I'm prob just being annoying due to my lack of background knowledge on the subject! No idea who Christo Grosev, Bellingcat or the Skripal poisoning suspects are....
Bellingcat's investigative journalism traced the suspects of the Salisbury poisoning incident and unearthed evidence that the suspects were acting on the orders of the GRU. Christo Grozev is the lead Russia investigator at Bellingcat.
Ok, I've scrolled through the comments below the tweet and even though everyone's doing that dick waving 'I know thing you don't' information gatekeeper bullshit, it looks like the general gist of it is that Putin may have been deposed, or some other situation defining event
Bellingcat’s investigative journalism traced the suspects of the Salisbury poisoning incident and unearthed evidence that the suspects were acting on the orders of the GRU. Christo Grozev is the lead Russia investigator at Bellingcat
Ah, ok, thanks!
