Possibly the only reason they know or suspect is we will have our own ship designed for cutting communication cables.
It would be prudent for us to have our own.
Biden looks clueless. He may as well have green lit Russian actions with his 'minor incursion' gaff.
It’s not always such a big deal to disclose intelligence unless drawn from covert human sources.
For many things, it will be obvious that the other side knows the capabilities. For example, an AWACS plane is huge and cannot be disguised. Other countries can get high resolution photos of them, look at the visible antennae, and analyze all the electromagnetic signals. Once they are used operationally, it's not giving anything away to discuss their obvious capabilities.
That German navel commander got the sack (left his post) this morning.
Also news but could be rubbish that Putin has brought in a lot of eastern Russian based soldiers that might not have close ties to Ukraine or western lifestyle ambitious for the dirty fighting when the general population get involved.
It turns out it's a well know tactic even the Roman empire did it.
I can see a huge cyber attack coming to keep you IT folk off singletrack you can put those coffee machines to good use.
Why hasn't Ukraine been allowed to join NATO?
They (and Georgia and Bosnia) became 'partners' in 2008, with aspirations to join.
The official reason is that they do not yet meet all the criteria.
I'm not sure if they could be granted emergency admission tomorrow, that would be a very strong signal to Russia, but the other members may not want to do this as they might have to actually do something rather than just impose sanctions.
but the other members may not want to do this as they might have to actually do something rather than just impose sanctions.
Exactly. Feels like Russia can pretty much invade who it likes
Haha! But, also, depressingly good point
Oh god imagine if the UK demanded the same? That's nearly a 1/3 of all habitable land mass, isn't it?!?
Why hasn’t Ukraine been allowed to join NATO?
They don't meet several anti-corruption standards that are part of the formal requirements for joining.
There's also the small matter of having an Eastern region in the middle of a seperatist civil war, where do you draw the border?
That said, international treaties are very much a case of 'where there's a will there's a way' and if the members are united in wanting to bring a country in sharpish, a way will be found.
‘where there’s a will there’s a way’ and if the members are united in wanting to bring a country in sharpish, a way will be found.
All current members have to agree because they will be bound to go to war if any member country is attacked. Ukraine has major corruption problems. They need to get their house in order before anyone is going to let them join NATO.
However, if Poland is used as a base to supply weapons and train Ukrainian soldiers out of reach of Russian weapons, that will force Putin to decide whether to tolerate it or attack Poland. If he does attack Poland, then NATO will be forced to respond. That would involve military action within Ukraine, even if they didn't attack targets in Russia. Once that happens, some sort of quasi-membership of NATO for Ukraine seems likely.
Interesting bit of posturing from the RAF. This is a live track for one of their spy planes right now - just chugging along the border of Crimea. The purple lines in the sea mark the territorial boundary.
They'd not normally fly with the tracking switched on.
All current members have to agree because they will be bound to go to war if any member country is attacked
Article V. In the absence of that I can't see anyone in NATO having the appetite for even a limited mechanised war against a well-equipped enemy.
Stand back everyone! Liz is on the case!
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1485947250010435588?s=20
It is unclear at this point whether she'll be driving a tank
Interesting analysis.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/
^^^ Fantastic article. Thanks.
With Putin's troops mincing around on the Ukrainian border I can't help but look at Russia and appreciate just how backwards it is. At least the degree of corruption in the UK appears to be simmering around illegal wine and cheese at the moment, as opposed to invading an entire country to give the world's richest man slightly easier access to his holiday home.
It would be nice if we could have a tiny gap of normality between Covid and war in Europe.
That German navel commander got the sack
Navel commander got the sack.
Must have been aiming too low 😛
Speaking of anti corruption standards America not too pleased with Putin using London to launder his cash
Or the number of ministers taking Russian money
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1486245779182399488?t=FkfzCaCDIGNUjYfjvLAVNA&s=19
This is what Putin is actually afraid of.
https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1486326753333288963
Good article that. I would imagine the ripple effects in Belarus and Kazakhstan would be of concern too.
I am increasingly of the opinion that the side show we are all missing is the effective takeover or Belarus. It will be a tangible increase in power and set back any hope of getting rid of the current dictator the people might have after the stolen election
I’d seen that mooted elsewhere, and certainly Belarus has something looking like an occupying military in place now.
This is what Putin is actually afraid of.
Great point. A bit like how Ukraine was pulled towards Europe after seeing the massive uptick in Poland's fortunes after joining the EU
In fact that also explains why Russia was interfering so hard in our 2016 referendum
Two waves of Eurofighters over our house this afternoon.
We get no military aircraft activity here and they were clearly in transit rather than a training exercise.
Edit - This is the UK
Two waves of Eurofighters over our house this afternoon.
5 Harriers shot down during the Falklands skirmish, against a relatively small power as Argentina is, they're going to need a shed load more against a superpower like Russia.
Total losses in the Falklands were 258 men, 6 ships,(10 others damaged in battle) total 34 aircraft(in battles or lost as a result) at a cost at the time of £3billion(about £10billion now).
We cant afford such losses. A few Eurofighters flying this way and that to get in the papers might bolster the Sun, Mail and Dail Star, but I dont think the powers that be, are going to seriously consider such a move as going up against Russia, no matter the provocation..
We cant afford such losses.
Completely the opposite. The Russian economy is about the size of Italy's. It's a fraction the size of the NATO economies. Russia can't afford to fight NATO. To Putin, having NATO forces on the Russian border is intolerable, but there's nothing he can do about it. He's really painted himself into a corner on this, he can't back down, Ukraine isn't capitulating, and he can't afford to get into a proper war because the Russian economy is a basket case.
They have China in their corner and China is desperate for resources of the type Russia has in abundance. Might find China picks up some of the tab. Plus China is never going to be a friend to nato or the US.
Plus I think the whole Russia/Soviet thing never really went away, and if the military is told to do something they do it.
Nothing boosts an economy like a good war.
Sing up now.
he can’t afford to get into a proper war because the Russian economy is a basket case
I suspect he doesn't care that much about such issues.
I suspect (IANARE) that pride and power may override such practical considerations.
They have China in their corner
China is in its own corner. They don't care about Ukraine or Russia. China will do whatever it thinks is best for itself, they have no loyalty to Russia.
Russia directly fighting NATO is fantasy chat.
Russia directly fighting NATO is fantasy chat.
Exactly.
China is in its own corner. They don’t care about Ukraine or Russia. China will do whatever it thinks is best for itself, they have no loyalty to Russia.
Absolutely. And if China thinks it going to get a better deal on resources they'll go that route. I dont think anyone is denying China ,like every allied power is free to choose who or what it does in any conflict.
Except maybe Lithuania, currently acting as empowered mouthpiece for the US.
Except maybe Lithuania, currently acting as empowered mouthpiece for the US.
Lithuania is a NATO member. They can mouth off as much as they like and Putin can't do anything abut it. If he attacks them, all NATO countries are required to join the fight.
My money on this is that Putin realizes that his bluff has been called and he slinks back to cower in his little grotto. He's not going to win this, it's just a matter of how badly he chooses to lose.
let us all hope so.
The problem is working out a way for him to do that so that he doesn't have to look like he lost to his own people. He needs to have a way out, otherwise he'll be in trouble at home.
Besides, there's nothing to stop him going in under the pretense of protecting ethnic Russians in the east. He'll already have troops and contractors with them and I am sure they'll have a plan to kick something off to allow him a route in.
thols2
Free Member
We cant afford such losses.
Completely the opposite. The Russian economy is about the size of Italy’s. It’s a fraction the size of the NATO economies.
I don't think he meant financially. We can afford that much better than Russia, I think he meant in terms of manpower and equipment. Russia could take much, much bigger loses and still have a big advantage. Unless the US decides to deploy almost everything it has but we are really up poo creek if it gets to that stage.
let us all hope so
Indeed.
I think he meant in terms of manpower and equipment.
I was. Which is why i brought the losses from the Falklands to attention. Cost of a destroyer like the 2 lost isnt cheap, nor are aircraft
How would we replace. We've not much in shipbuilding and what we do have isnt geared to rapidly replacing capital ship. Are they going to steam in through the med, or Submarine city as its likely to be.
But as ive said(many pages back) Russia isnt going to invade anyone. The only people clamouring for war is the US and their lapdogs.
As to NATO as a whole, the Europeans. Nato isnt going to do anything as it will be a fricken cold winter with Russia holding their fuel supplies in a vice like grip.
I suspect the reason Germany sent the Ukraine helmets are because helmets are a defensive item. Not missiles. Germany doesnt want to be looked upon by the Russians as being aggressive in this.
But as ive said(many pages back) Russia isnt going to invade anyone.
They already did. They invaded Ukraine years go, not to mention Georgia. What you seem to mean is that they won't invade all of Ukraine, only parts of it.
They secured the area of their black sea fleet if thats what you are referring to.
Sevastopol is one of only a few proper deepwater ports available to Russia. It is key to routes between the Black sea, marmara and therefore the Med and out into the Atlantic.
You can if you wish look at the annexation of Crimea from a short term perspective if you want(Or whatever narrative), but no country especially the superpowers are going to think like that.
Clearly it was never about Russian speaking peoples living there, the entire reason was strategic.
Why do you think we hold Gibraltar. We will ALWAYS retain that little bit of Spain.
They
securedinvaded the area of their black sea fleet if thats what you are referring to.
Yes, the invasion was what I was referring to when I used the word "invade".
If you want to call it that then yes. But are we anyone to judge ?, considering our own recent record of invasion.
And certainly we haven't acted for our own security.
Good timing by Putin but I do wonder if the show of support to the Ukraine from all over the globe made him reach for this.
Good timing by Putin but I do wonder if the show of support to the Ukraine from all over the globe made him reach for this.
Russia and China have been in cahoots for some time
I ment because of the winter games sorry.
But as ive said(many pages back) Russia isnt going to invade anyone. The only people clamouring for war is the US and their lapdogs.
As to NATO as a whole, the Europeans. Nato isnt going to do anything as it will be a fricken cold winter with Russia holding their fuel supplies in a vice like grip.
I don't think anyone is clamouring for war, I believe we have been noisy on the PR front to keep ahead of the usual Russian precursor activities. The whole point is to head off a war.
The Ukrainians don't want one, none of the NATO or non aligned European states want one, the US don't want one.
As always ask "cui bono" I can only see two countries benefiting from a conflict
But you know, keep going on about US/ NATO/ EU/ UK aggression.
Plus I think the whole Russia/Soviet thing never really went away, and if the military is told to do something they do it.
Agreed - Russia was ill-prepared for democracy, in the Soviet era power was divvied out between the Politburo, the KGB and the Soviet military, who also had a well funded intelligence division. Historically, Russia in particular has a deeply ingrained fear of invasion and occupation, in a depressingly regressive fashion, Putin is a kleptocrat with increasingly paranoid advisors who are by and large the benefactors of the old state industries.
Nothing boosts an economy like a good war.
The value of the Ruble is volatile, but Russia has healthy foreign currency reserves. Clearly, they're trying to buffer against sanctions. The size of the foreign reserve suggests to me that it's not enough to sustain a lengthy conflict, but that they want a swift tangible gain, perhaps the annexation of ethnically "Russian" eastern Ukraine. Putin does seem to have painted himself into a corner - if he orders an invasion then the best he can hope for is a territorial claim on eastern Ukraine, if it bogs down a la Chechnya or Afghanistan then he'll risk popular opinion turning further against him.
power was divvied out between the Politburo, the KGB and the Soviet military
The problem now is that the balance has gone - the KGB/FSB faction has all the power with no balance.
It will be very interesting to see what happens when Putin goes - sadly, I think it will get worse rather than better. Similar to the death of Tito - no obvious way to replace the old leader and many tensions. I hope I'm wrong.
if he orders an invasion then the best he can hope for is a territorial claim on eastern Ukraine
But he isnt, at least I see it that way.
What it is is a show of force and it has the world on edge. In terms of frightening the opposition its certainly done that.
But you know, keep going on about US/ NATO/ EU/ UK aggression.
Lets replace the word aggression with that of expansion.
Lets replace the word aggression with that of expansion.
The only way NATO can expand is if countries ask to join. The only reason countries want to join NATO is Russia's aggression towards them. So, if Russia doesn't want NATO on its borders, it needs to start respecting the sovereignty of its neighbours. Putin brought this on himself, attempting to blame NATO for it is lame.
Well Im glad you all seem to think NATO is some fantastic peace keeping force, angels in green camo. I feel its a dangerous organization that should have disbanded when the warsaw pact disbanded.
Im not pro Russia, and thankfully I can look past the patriotic veil covering many peoples eyes because im not pro nato either. Im pro peace.
If Russia is to be considered dangerous, then NATO should be also.
NATO's actions in many countries around the world have done more to sow division than unity.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/03/nato-peace-threat-ukraine-military-conflict
https://opencanada.org/has-nato-become-a-threat-to-world-peace/
Even CND is concerned.
https://cnduk.org/resources/new-menace-russia-nato-real-threat/
Im pro peace.
Excellent. So you'll be advocating for Russia to withdraw the troops it already has fighting in eastern Ukraine, plus the troops it has in Georgia. Nobody is invading or harassing Russia, the only country invading anyone is Russia. If you are pro-peace, that's the country that you need to be concerned about.
Im concerned about all countries Thols. But I can understand why Russia is concerned after witnessing the conflicts we've had in the last 20 years.
NATO is doing the exact same as Russia is right now. They too have a build up of military bases right on the Russian border.
.
As to countries to be concerned about specifically. Arent you even in part concerned about how the US is acting ?. Middle east, Asia, Latin America, South America. How many conflicts have they been involved in ?. Considerably more than Russia has, and none of them on the US border.
NATO is doing the exact same as Russia is right now.
Nonsense. NATO has not invaded Ukraine. Russia invaded border areas and Crimea a few years ago and is now preparing for a larger invasion. Ukraine has asked for assistance from NATO. It's pretty simple - in this instance, Russia is unambiguously the bad actor, Ukraine is afraid of them, NATO is responding to desperate pleas for help from Ukraine. They are not the same and you are badly misguided if you genuinely believe they are.
Heres the full quote Thols, you seem to have left out a portion that relates to the other states. Im sure that was just an oversight.
"NATO is doing the exact same as Russia is right now. They too have a build up of military bases right on the Russian border."
And considering Ukraine isnt in nato, that must be related to the other states who recently joined. Lets at least keep the quotes in full and not piecemeal them out to suit individual points of view 😉
Nato has allied itself with ex soviet states and built military bases in them. Is the narrative economic benefit, or an increase in military might.
Shouldn't we be moving towards peace, not away from it.
Russian relations towards the ex Soviet states only changed after they joined NATO. Prior to that relations were good, with a few exceptions. But then don't we and other countries have the same model. "We spy on others, we use cyber-hacking against others, we have spy satellites peering into other countries business.
America spies on us and i expect we spy on the US. We spy on EU countries as does the US. Are such behaviours not considered normal 😕
Prior to that relations were good
Uh, can you clarify what timeframe your referring to there?
Russia has done some very nasty stuff in eastern Europe over the years bearing in mind the Soviet Union was utterly dominated by Russia.
Russian relations towards the ex Soviet states only changed after they joined NATO. Prior to that relations were good,
Nonsense. Russia was an imperial power, the USSR was an empire dominated by Russia. As soon as the USSR fell apart, the occupied states declared independence and kicked the Russian troops out. They were not welcome there. That's why Putin is angry - he wants to reoccupy the old Russian empire but the people who live in those states do not want to be dominated by Russia again. Pretty much the same as the collapse of the British Empire - anyone who believes that it was anything other than a military occupation is utterly deluded.
Shouldn’t we be moving towards peace, not away from it.
Yes, so Russia withdrawing the troops it has occupying eastern Ukraine would be a very good first step. After that, they need to stand down the huge numbers of troops they have recently massed along Ukraine's borders.
Early 90's. Disintegration of Soviet Union and transition in the modern Russia.
The states wanted to be part of Europe for the socioeconomic benefits, but also wanted their relationship with the former Soviet to continue.
The states wanted to be part of Europe for the socioeconomic benefits, but also wanted their relationship with the former Soviet to continue.
This is what the Ukraine invasion by Russia is about. Ukraine wanted closer economic ties with Europe. Russia did not want that, they wanted the old arrangement of Ukraine being subservient to Russia to continue. Ukrainians rejected that and Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine. In response, Ukraine turned to NATO for assistance. The aggressor in this is Russia. The victim is Ukraine.
The states wanted to be part of Europe for the socioeconomic benefits, but also wanted their relationship with the former Soviet to continue.
Thats an incompatible pair of ‘wants’ from a Russian leadership perspective.
Although I’ve no doubt the West, particularly some in the West, are leveraging things in an attempt to draw Ukraine further away from Russia. And god only knows what’s going on in the upper echelons of Ukrainian political influence.
I see no innocent parties here. Apart from people of no influence.
Its more a case of Russia wanted the states to remain in its sphere of influence, but relationships were good. Something changed and that was the proposed membership to nato. Nato had promised not to form bases in those states and regaled on those assurances.
Thats when it all went tits up.
Its a bit like Cuba. Cuba is so close to the US, the US was worried about their strategic security. I see that Russia feels the same, aand i dont see any country thinking any differently. So what I've been saying is i understand Russias point of view, not that im siding with them
Beside, why would we even want the Ukraine anyway. Its corruption is legendary, and 9th down the list of most corrupt countries in the world, and certainly as if not more corrupt than countries that the west has forced a change of government in.
Must be some reason eh 😉 😆
Beside, why would we even want the Ukraine anyway.
We don't (although I'm not sure who you think "we" is). Ukraine wants closer ties to Europe and does not want Russian troops in its territory. Ukraine asked NATO for help in order to maintain its independence from Russia.
So what I’ve been saying is i understand Russias point of view, not that im siding with them
Maybe you need to spend some time thinking about the Ukrainian point of view. (Hint: they are angry with Russia because Russia invaded their territory and they do not want to be forced back into a Russian empire.)
By Ukraine do you mean Crimea ?
A country of some 15% Ukrainians and 65% Russian who had a referendum and voted to become independent of Ukraine ? then had 90% voting for reunification with Russia. That the Ukraine you want me to consider.
Crimea was part of Ukraine through treaty. Russia also invaded border areas of Ukraine. They are pretending that those are not Russian soldiers, but nobody seriously believes that. Putin seems to have completely misunderstood how his invasion would be viewed by Ukrainians and now he's bogged down in a war that he cannot afford to abandon, but cannot win without a much larger commitment of Russian troops. So, if you are serious about wanting peace, the first step would be for Russia to withdraw all it's soldiers from eastern Ukraine. It's difficult to take you seriously if you think that Ukraine should just surrender to Russia in order to avoid provoking Russia.
Its a roundabout argument Thols that neither of us can fully judge. So I'm finishing with a bit of humor
This is unlikely to happen. An invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be a death sentence for Russia's already weak economy. Blocking the accounts of the oligarchs and an even greater crisis.
I think this is all just Putin flexing his muscles to get himself some privileges on the world stage.
All the money of the oligarchs and Putin himself is in the EU and the USA, as well as their children live and study there. This is all a show.
By Ukraine do you mean Crimea ?
A country of some 15% Ukrainians and 65% Russian who had a referendum and voted to become independent of Ukraine ? then had 90% voting for reunification with Russia. That the Ukraine you want me to consider.
Are you seriously suggesting that election wasn't in any way corrupt? Have a look at who the observers were and how likely they would be to provide impartial monitoring.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum#Allegations_of_fraud
They secured the area of their black sea fleet if thats what you are referring to.
Sevastopol is one of only a few proper deepwater ports available to Russia. It is key to routes between the Black sea, marmara and therefore the Med and out into the Atlantic.
You can if you wish look at the annexation of Crimea from a short term perspective if you want(Or whatever narrative), but no country especially the superpowers are going to think like that.
Clearly it was never about Russian speaking peoples living there, the entire reason was strategic.
So, if it's not about the people and all about power why are you so keen to defend them?
Also, as a strategic area it's only as useful as the ships you already have in there, the other end is two narrow straits controlled by Turkey followed by the Suez or Gibralter which could/would all be under NATO control.
As to countries to be concerned about specifically. Arent you even in part concerned about how the US is acting ?. Middle east, Asia, Latin America, South America. How many conflicts have they been involved in ?. Considerably more than Russia has, and none of them on the US border.
What shows your blinkers is that Russia was/is operating in all these areas.
Anyway, at the moment we have Belarus essentially occupied, as also parts of Georgia, whilst we all fret about Ukraine.
NATO is a defensive alliance. It’s no surprise that countries which harbour expansionist territorial aspirations are opposed to any expansion of defensive alliances. NATO does not pose any threat to either China or Russia, but it will make it more difficult for them to fulfil their territorial aims.
Russia mounts a significant military build up on the border with Ukraine and sends troops into Belarus
China and Russia sign a military bilateral
"Cui bono"
https://www.voanews.com/a/himalayan-bridge-project-sparks-fresh-china-india-tension/6392630.html
Russia mounts a significant military build up on the border with Ukraine and sends troops into Belarus.
Anyway, at the moment we have Belarus essentially occupied
Yes well we know about the build up of troops thats been happening for a few months, speculated long about it, speculated some more and finally decided its likely nothing is going to become of it.
As to Belarus, they are a member of the CSTO, so if invited in thats hardly an invasion is it. No different in fact to any of NATO's allies inviting them in. And in fact President Lukashenka has stated that Belarus will support Russia if they did in fact invade the Ukraine(though theres been a bit of a constitutional change there and while support would likely be offered, it wouldnt be acknowledged)..Plus use the country as a base for Russian nuclear weapons, etc etc.
They regularly conduct military exercises with Russian forces. Is that an invasion by an occupying force 😕 So not sure where you got that info from Big'n'Daft, but it appears to be wrong.
Now, Russia might retain its forces in Belarus as a way to mirror NATO's permanent rotation of troops as part of its Enhanced Forward Presence initiative. But again these sort of situations dont improve peaceful prospects, and its more like a Mexican standoff, which never turns out too well for anyone.
Its a shame though that Russia didnt invade, given Belarus's record on human rights is horrendous, it's endemic corruption and as far from a democracy as it's possible to get.
Defending Squirrelking ?. Im not defending anyone. Im saying playing such games are a danger to everyone. It is you who appears to be defending the rights of these countries to threaten the security of another and drive them into games of brinkmanship.
This is how Russia sees it. Wouldn't it be prudent to take note of those concerns and perhaps pull back.
--------
But yet again the STW mob is attacking the individual for daring to question the narrative.
I'll bet you lot were cheering the house over weapons of mass destruction lies and wanting an invasion of whomever to take place soon as possible. From whats been said thus far, any dissenting voices expressing concern would have been descended upon.
Tell you what. Go argue amongst yourselves, I'll not be checking back into this thread.
Its a shame though that Russia didnt invade
Bit hard to say you hope for peace and also say you wish Russia had invaded another country. Bye.