I never saw such wild optimism as here on this thread 🙂
I get it😑
But it's like the educated man relying on the absurdity of religion to right a wrong. Or going off a cliff edge and hopelessly clutching at a blade of grass to save yourself .. sometimes wild optimism is all we got.
something's happening in Switzerland.
What's happening in Switzerland is Russia says "The European plan, at first glance... is completely unconstructive and does not work for us."
Good.
What's happening in Switzerland is Russia says "The European plan, at first glance... is completely unconstructive and does not work for us."
Good.
It's clear that the "tweaked" WH plan will come to nothing this week, despite Karoline Leavitt saying, “The President wants to see this deal come together, and to see this war end..."
"He wants to see this deal come together as quickly as possible.”
Despite this, he's reportedly jetted off to Florida for the rest of the week (all widely reported).
I'd go so far as to say that nothing will come of any plan because Russia isn't currently interested in negotiation on anything less than its hardy perennial demands.
In Steve Rosenberg's Youtube channel, "Steve's Reading Russia" from yesterday (24th Nov), it's apparent that Russian media is already setting up for failure of the plan,
AI generated content from Youtube,
"What's interesting is that in the papers here this morning, there seems to be a lot of skepticism in Russia that this round of diplomacy is actually going to bring results, plus a lot of fingerpointing at Kiev and at Europe.""Riske gazeda (sic) takes aim at London, Paris, and Berlin. The negative reactions to Trump's plan coming from Britain, France, and Germany leave no doubt that these are the countries heading the undeclared war against Russia. This is why they aren't just requesting, they're demanding that they must take part in the discussions on a peace deal with Moscow."
"Commerce (sic) Kiev's European allies are trying to add corrections to Trump's Ukraine plan that would make it unacceptable to Moscow."
The MO of the plan is similar to previous Trump peace plans, e.g. Islamic State/Afghanistan and Israel/Gaza, in that the weaker party has a disproportionately reduced agency and gives up its weapons.
It also includes points specifically designed to appeal to Trump such as 50% profits from frozen Russian assets in EU financial institutions and is "authored" by business people, which means that it's open to interpretation and conspicuously free of the annoying binding safeguards for Ukraine that seasoned diplomats would include.
Despite it being a very obvious Russian diplomatic trap, the WH cannot resist jumping in to fulfill Russia's aims.
It's clear that one aim is to split the "west" by promoting the idea that Europe's "bad plan" will interfere with President Trump's desire for a quick peace, presenting Ukraine and Europe as the blockers, thus moving the US away from Europe.
The flip side of this is that Europe will move away from the US on the grounds that the US isn't reliable and too prone to unforeseeable actions.
The US and Russia have agreed Ukraine's exclusion from NATO and its inclusion in the EU, which are issues that have little or nothing to do with the US. It actually talks about NATO expansion and US mediation in discussions between NATO and Russia
They are one of thirty-two member countries who get to vote on Ukraine's inclusion (or not) in NATO, and have no vote on inclusion in the EU.
This is guaranteed to create a chasm between the US, NATO and the EU, which is another aim.
Russia is making the most of splitting EU and NATO allies with PMs Fico of Slovakia and Orban of Hungary unsurprisingly supporting the US plan. Orban is still promoting his world leader status before April's election by organising a peace summit in Budapest.
Fico also believes that the current proposal is worse for Ukraine than the plan discussed in 2022, but he still sees it as a chance for an immediate ceasefire on both sides of the front.
In Hungary, which is friendly toward Russia, the US peace plan is also supported. The country’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, stated recently that the publication of the plan’s 28 points initiates important processes that will eventually lead to organizing a peace summit in Budapest. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/fico-says-slovakia-supports-us-peace-plan-1763784813.html
Russia outwardly believes that it can achieve military victory and gain far more by pursuing that than through peace. This plan is just another Russian play to maintain the appearance of negotiating so that they don't trigger further US sanctions and the supply of further US weapon systems to Ukraine. In that respect it's like several previous plans including Alaska and the cancelled summit in Hungary.
Other states will be watching closely for signals on potential future conflict with neighbours, judged on the reaction of the US to Russia's obvious disinformation and can-kicking.
It really is a very important process to get right and the US is failing ATM
Worth reading in full IMHO
OPINION: Brick by Brick, Dull As Drones, Ugly Americans in Kyiv
Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post’s military correspondent, shares his perspective on recent developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine:
The “peace initiative”
The front: Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Zaporizhzhia
NATO training: Yeah, it will be easier if we train without those Ukrainian drones
Soapbox advice for NATO
Some talk the talk, others blow up real drones in a real war
Welcome to the Russian world, or, This won’t make friends
Russia bombards Ukraine
Ukraine bombards Russia
Ukrainian Air Force stuff – Rafales and F-16s
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/64982
Recordings of Steve Witkoff have been released where he's advising Russian representatives on how best to get President Trump's attention.
Predictably denied as fake, but who knows?
According to reports on Tuesday, the US Special Envoy to Ukraine Steve Witkoff advised Russian officials on how to prepare a peace deal on Ukraine to President Donald Trump that would get the Oval Office’s attention, even if the terms were unfavorable to Kyiv.
An audio recording of his dealings with Kremlin top brass, reported by Bloomberg, revealed that Witkoff, a close friend of Trump and, like him, a wheeling-and dealing New York property developer, met with Kirill Dmitriev, an economic adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Florida weeks ago to discuss and begin drafting an agreement that would prioritize Russian interests.
Everything solid that Russia produces in bulk must be transported by rail, whether that be coal, steel, military and agricultural product, etc.
As the largest commercial employer, it also employs in bulk.
The largest country in the world has a limited coastline and relies on railways; it will be a huge problem if they collapse,
Exclusive: Russia weighs how to prop up Russian Railways which is $51 billion in debt, sources say
By Gleb Stolyarov November 25
- Government discussed Russian Railways – sources
- Russian Railways debt is 4 trillion roubles – sources
- Russia considering different options to help Russian Railways
What I dint get it is who leaked taht recording?
Americans sympathetic to Ukraine trying to block Trump selling them down the river or Russians trying to derail any sort of peace process
Either way it paints Witkoff as completely in the Kremlins corner
The largest country in the world has a limited coastline and relies on railways; it will be a huge problem if they collapse
Or, paraphrasing Terry Pratchett, a shame if someone knackered them
The longer this goes on, the more i think it's a russian trolling attempt that's gone spectacularly right. Could still bit them in the bum if Trump gets super annoyed about Putin turning down the European counter offer. But i think it'll just go back to before with US credability even more undermined
At some point Trump is going to realise that Witkoff was mocking him by explaining how to stroke his ego and he will get ditched
At some point Trump is going to realise that Witkoff was mocking him by explaining how to stroke his ego and he will get ditched
Can picture him now, (well, eventually) going "hang on- is this adulation not real?"
The largest country in the world has a limited coastline and relies on railways; it will be a huge problem if they collapse
Or, paraphrasing Terry Pratchett, a shame if someone knackered them
Are we talking big-badda-boom or just sand in the fuel?
As in "Lovely railroad you got here mate. Looks flammable. Shame if it were to spontaneously combust"
At some point Trump is going to realise that Witkoff was mocking him by explaining how to stroke his ego and he will get ditched
Or maybe Witkoff is doing exactly what Trump has instructed him to do. And is letting Russia know exactly what Trump wants.
I think it's been very clear for quite a while now that Trump is very much on Russia's side. I doubt UK, Europe and other former allies aren't fully aware of this too. Unfortunately they all currently depend heavily on the USA, but regardless if the next USA president is the complete opposite of Trump, no country will allow themselves to be so dangerously dependent on the USA again .. and by doing so it has accelerated USAs demise .. quite the paradox MAGA turned out to be.
Unfortunately they all currently depend heavily on the USA, but regardless if the next USA president is the complete opposite of Trump, no country will allow themselves to be so dangerously dependent on the USA again ..
I'll occasionally wonder idly if the UK would ever ditch Trident in favour of "Mer-Sol-Ballistique-Stratégique" from across the channel and thinking... nah seems ridiculous.... But then the Trump admin keeps making it seem ever so slightly less unrealistic and worth the presumably astronomical costs of redesigning the Dreadnought class.
*I don't think that's actually going to happen. I'd just no longer be as shocked if it did
I can understand why they would keep Trident - ultimately it's a security guarantee, and the "would USA allow it to be used" is a very very small query in addition to that world ending one.
But as Ukraine has sadly found out. If Russia, China, or India decided to invade or just destroy your country. Then it's a real possibility the USA provided conventional weapons may have limitations placed on them, and any help or support from the USA would come at a very very heavy price .. if at all.
As others have said early on in this thread. Lots of smaller countries without their own nuclear deterrent will be looking at acquiring one ASAP - Japan & S.Korea I'd guess being dead certs.
S.Korea started developing their own arms industry in response to the USAs unreliablity in the 70's; the EU are trying to start their own now. I think we'll see lots more countries doing the same and also developing their own space/satellite capabilities.
Trump in his ignorance and greed has pretty much played, and now destroyed, the USAs cards of softly perpetuating its dominance and position. It's just a silent race now for countries to decouple from them before a bigger country decides to take a bite .. Taiwan must be petrified!
Taiwan must surely be thinking about nukes too?
Managed to post an incorrect link, tried to delete. Forum weirdness ensued. Who knows whether it's gone, or if I've posted it 6 times instead ..
Taiwan must surely be thinking about nukes too?
They had their legs slapped in the late 80s for looking to acquire them .. maybe they already do have them. How long would it take such a high tech country as theirs to put one together? months or weeks??
How long would it take such a high tech country as theirs to put one together? months or weeks??
Probably months because you need fissile material. As I understand it, plutonium is the easiest to produce, it's a byproduct of civilian nuclear reactors. However, bombs need Pu239, which is created from uranium capturing neutrons inside a reactor. However, if you leave the Pu239 in the reactor for too long, it can capture another neutron and become Pu240, which you can't use to create a bomb. So, you need to swap the fuel out of the reactors much more often in a bomb program than in a civil program if you want to make weapons grade plutonium, but that's monitored. Therefore, to produce weapons grade plutonium, you need to kick out the inspectors and change how the reactors are run. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. probably all have the knowhow in place to make bombs, but they would need time to produce the fissile material and put all the pieces together. That would take months and would be very obvious if they did it.
Managed to post an incorrect link, tried to delete.
You're a step ahead of me; I've never even seen a delete button, let alone tried to use it to delete a post 🙁
Anyone know if the US has stopped intelligence sharing/weapons deliveries ? Seeing as its Thursday
The longer this goes on, the more i think it's a russian trolling attempt that's gone spectacularly right. Could still bit them in the bum if Trump gets super annoyed about Putin turning down the European counter offer. But i think it'll just go back to before with US credability even more undermined
I think that Russia is concerned that this could come back to bite them as well.
The recordings aren't being decried as fake now,
"Commenting on the leak of a recording of a call between top advisers to Trump and Putin, the Kremlin chief rejected the suggestion that Witkoff had shown himself to be biased towards Moscow in peace talks over Ukraine, describing it as nonsense."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-us-ukraine-text-could-form-basis-future-peace-agreement-2025-11-27/AND
"Representative Brian Fitzpatrick called for a change in strategy, describing on social media the Witkoff call as "a major problem. And one of the many reasons why these ridiculous side shows and secret meetings need to stop.""
"Moscow also raised concerns about the leak to Bloomberg News of the transcript of a call between Witkoff and Putin's foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, in which the U.S. envoy advised Ushakov on how to pitch a peace plan to Trump.
Trump, on Air Force One, brushed aside a question from a reporter about why Witkoff appeared to be coaching Russian officials as "what a dealmaker does" and "a very standard form of negotiation."
But Russia said the leak was an unacceptable attempt to undermine peace efforts and amounted to hybrid warfare."
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/kremlin-says-witkoff-come-moscow-talks-ukraine-peace-next-week-2025-11-26/
There's a certain amount of damage limitation happening to maintain the pretence of engagement in the peace process,
"BISHKEK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that outline draft peace proposals discussed by the United States and Ukraine could become the basis of future agreements to end the conflict in Ukraine, but that if not Russia would fight on."
"Putin mixed a clear public expression of readiness to engage with the Trump administration over a possible peace plan for Ukraine with several warnings that Russia was prepared to fight on if necessary and take more of Ukraine." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-us-ukraine-text-could-form-basis-future-peace-agreement-2025-11-27/
AND
"Trump, on Air Force One, brushed aside a question from a reporter about why Witkoff appeared to be coaching Russian officials as "what a dealmaker does" and "a very standard form of negotiation.
But Russia said the leak was an unacceptable attempt to undermine peace efforts and amounted to hybrid warfare."
There seems to be a foreign policy behind-the-scenes power struggle going on in both the US and Russia that's spilled over into the public arena. If that's the case and Trump lashes out with more sanctions and/or weapons then there will be some wrist-slapping to follow. Russia really didn't want its MO to become public knowledge.
It doesn't matter who recorded and released the audio, which is the very obvious redirection now being deployed. The WH has shown its inexperience and Trump shouldn't have been allowed to touch that "deal" with a very long barge pole so there should be some wrist-slapping to follow there as well.
Taiwan must surely be thinking about nukes too?
They had their legs slapped in the late 80s for looking to acquire them .. maybe they already do have them. How long would it take such a high tech country as theirs to put one together? months or weeks??
It would depend on how sophisticated you wanted it to be.
Taiwan has one operational nuclear power plant and ideally you'd use 90% enriched uranium.
If you wanted a quick job then the IAEA says that 20% enriched material “can be used for the manufacture of nuclear explosive devices without transmutation or further enrichment.”
You'd need 25kg of 20% HEU and there are numerous treaties and other safeguards to work through as well (p31)
Iran is thought to be at 60% HEU
Trump has tacoed on his threats to Ukraine.
I can't find it now but I think I saw a report suggesting that a Republican has tabled a motion to hit Russia, and more importantly, countries still doing business with Russia, with sweeping sanctions and sanctions.
This seems to be completely dead now.
It's been resurrected a couple of times but President Trump has always refused to sign it should it progress through the US Congress as far as his desk because he can't control timescales, sanction % and on whom it gets inflicted.
Some Democrats are now concerned about giving such a blunt implement to Trump to "swing wildly", so they've turned against it too.
"The bill, which has not yet reached the floor, would codify existing sanctions and levy tariffs of up to 500 percent on imports from third countries – such as China, India, Iran – that continue purchasing Russian energy while providing little support to Ukraine."
"The bill, spearheaded by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), boasts 85 co-sponsors – a staggering bipartisan show of force.
Graham said last week that the Senate was “on the threshold of passing this bill.” As of today, that threshold appears farther away than ever.""One House Democrat, speaking exclusively to Kyiv Post, put it bluntly: “There’s a real concern this is less about Russia policy and more about giving the President a trade weapon he can’t be trusted not to swing wildly.”"
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65138
Sounds like his "peace" plan doesn't have as much support in his party as he likes to pretend.
No. This latest phone leaks/Russian disinformation/stringing Trump along exposing WH inexperience is a debacle. It isn't just the Dems; Reps disapprove too.
The survey, conducted Nov. 26, reveals broad disapproval across party lines, signaling that (a US) administration racing to broker a deal with Moscow and Kyiv before year’s end may be out of step with the (US) electorate.
The topline numbers are bruising: 46% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, compared with just 36% who approve. And it’s not soft disapproval – 36% “strongly disapprove,” the single largest block of sentiment in the poll. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65139
Trump is managing to split his MAGA base too on everything from the ballroom to Venezuela. The Epstein files might be a welcome relief because that's only ever been a slow-burning resentment
A Reuters-Ipsos poll in June showed 52% of Republicans said it was “better for the nation if the US stays out of the affairs of other nations.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/18/politics/maga-movement-trump-epstein-division
Just sell weapons systems, keep the US in employment and keep out of Ukraine seems to be the message
BRUSSELS, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said the European Union's plan to use frozen Russian state assets to fund Ukraine could endanger the chances for a potential peace deal to end the nearly four-year war.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/belgium-pm-says-using-frozen-russian-assets-could-derail-ukraine-peace-deal-2025-11-28/
I read that and thought that I'd do some mild digging. Belgium has possibly taken €5bn in revenue on these assets since 2022
Frozen Russian assets held by securities giant Euroclear in Belgium generated €1.7 billion in tax revenue for Belgium last year. That's according to Euroclear’s annual figures. The Belgian government will use the cash to provide aid to Ukraine. The total amount of Russian assets blocked at Euroclear amounts to some 183 billion euros.
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/02/06/russia_s-frozen-euroclear-assets-earn-belgium-1-7-billion-euros/
Belgium is also in the top 5 of EU countries importing Russian LNG, some of which it re-exports to other EU countries and persistently refused to meet the suggested 2% contribution to NATO until this August. Most other participants have been discussing 3.5% (+1.5% to total 5%) since June
Belgium, like the other 31 NATO Member States, is expected to spend 2% of its GDP on defence expenditure this year, according to new figures published by the military alliance overnight from Wednesday to Thursday.
It is the first time since this target was set that Belgium has met it. https://www.brusselstimes.com/1721072/belgium-meets-2-nato-target-for-defence-spending-this-year
Norway has offered to financially secure any repercussions from using the Russian money. You have to wonder what the hell is going on in Belgium ?
2 Russian shadow fleet oil tankers hit by kinetic sanctions 👍
link?
edit, found one: https://archive.is/gtYnN
so off the coast of turkey, not sure how happy turkey will be about that sort of thing!
I'm pretty happy. Good ol' sucho
Russia is now selling its gold reserves, and printing money like crazy. Only a matter of time 🤞
I'm pretty happy. Good ol' sucho
That's a very "British" narrator. He's talking about drones blowing up oil tankers in a tone that could equally be used in a 1980s Open University video on Oxbow lakes.
Another tanker hit in the Black Sea 👍
While I'm not upset to see the shadow fleet being sunk, there's a lot of environmentally damaging fuel on those things even when unloaded.
Maybe that risk would be worth taking next time the spy boat shines a high power laser at an RAF plane however.
While I'm not upset to see the shadow fleet being sunk, there's a lot of environmentally damaging fuel on those things even when unloaded.
Maybe that risk would be worth taking next time the spy boat shines a high power laser at an RAF plane however.
Some of the Baltic states (amongst Ukraine's strongest supporters) have expressed concern about this tactic spreading.
Environmentally far safer to target the pipeline infrastructure that connects to the ship just offshore, like they have at Novorossiysk https://kyivindependent.com/drone-strike-forces-russias-novorossiysk-oil-terminal-to-halt-all-loading-operations/
.More difficult to access but they automatically cut the fuel flow if severed
Russia has developed FPV versions of its Geran (Shahed) drones that can manoeuvre, probably to attack Ukrainian light aircraft and helicopters that use guns to shoot the drones down.
Another new Geran variant armed with a Soviet R60 air-to-air missile has been shot down today
Useful APN analysis of the implications of Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet.
I've expanded on the APN analysis ^^ because it didn't answer questions that I had (yes, I listened to YT, but it was only a short one 😀)
This series of strikes on shadow fleet shipping and infrastructure in the Black Sea are seen as representing "an unprecedented intensity",
Control Risks maritime security analyst Arran Kennedy said that together with a Ukrainian attack that temporarily shut down export operations at the CPC terminal at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which exports Kazakh product, this represented an unprecedented intensity in Ukrainian action at sea.
“In response to the overt attacks in the Black Sea, Russia will likely retaliate against Ukrainian ports, as well as Ukraine-bound and Ukraine-origin shipping in the Black Sea,” Kennedy told Lloyd’s List.
“This will most likely involve heavy bombardments on port infrastructure that cause damage to adjacent commercial ships; direct strikes on berthed or anchored Ukraine-trading vessels in the Gulf of Odesa; and/or attacks against such vessels while underway in the Black Sea, provided they are not in the territorial waters of Nato states.” https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155706/Russia-likely-to-retaliate-following-Ukraine-attacks-on-shadow-fleet-tankers
Russia has been hitting the Port of Odessa for years, including shelling the port as early as March 2022. This has been replaced by drone and missile activity as the Black Sea became more hostile to the Russian naval fleet, so I'm not sure that they can "retaliate" any more than they already do.
They might attack visiting shipping, more than they occasionally have, but I can't help feeling that it'll be counter-productive for Russia, meanwhile, a third Russian cargo ship is claiming an attack by Ukraine in the Black Sea,
"Turkey’s Directorate of Maritime Affairs said the Midvolga 2 was struck about 80 miles (129 km) off the Turkish coast while sailing from Russia to Georgia with a cargo of sunflower oil."
"Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned the attacks, calling them a “worrying escalation.”
“We cannot condone these attacks, which threaten navigational safety, life, and the environment, especially in our own exclusive zone,” Erdogan said in a televised address. “We are issuing the necessary warnings to all parties regarding such situations.”"
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65394
Many countries are already concerned that Russian shipping insurance isn't adequate and wouldn't cover the costs of a clean-up from a major spill.
These strikes by Ukraine on shipping will only increase the cost of insurance and the costs of using Black Sea transport, which affects Ukraine and Russia the same.
War risk insurance is already higher for Russian ports than for ports in Ukraine, so percentage increases affect Russia more,
War risk rates for a typical seven-day voyage period, which are set by individual underwriters and are based on the value of the ship, rose to 0.5% for calls to Ukrainian ports from 0.4% over a week ago, shipping and insurance sources said.
War risk insurance for Russian Black Sea ports, which is typically higher, was quoted at between 0.65-0.8% versus around 0.6% last week, the sources added. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/black-sea-shipping-insurance-rates-rise-after-ukraine-attacks-tankers-sources-2025-12-01/
The downside is that the majority of other countries that use the Black Sea are either NATO countries or more supportive of Ukraine than of Russia.
Both Turkiye and Kazakhstan have put commerce and their economies to the fore, but support Ukraine as well. Kazakhstan moves 80% of its oil through Russian infrastructure, but condemned the 2022 invasion and gives Ukraine aid. Turkiye buys a lot of Russian oil but has supported Ukraine with military aid from the beginning, so it's a complicated picture.
Various sources indicate that the Russian shadow fleet is growing. The New York Times estimates that 17% of the world’s tankers belong to Russia, while S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates that 2025 saw a 45% increase in numbers over 2024.
Identity and flag changes mean that the vessels don't get safety checked regularly, while oil transfers at sea to hide the origin of cargo increases risks.
I think we'll have to see how this plays out and whether it spreads to Baltic Sea shipping, rather than Russia's infrastructure
Really hoping this report from the Moscow Times has something to do with Ukraine's hybrid warfare team, and given the volume of normal Russians that will be affected, definitely a case of ohdearnevermindwhatashame. 🤣
Mod: Broken link removed
Oh no! How terrible for them! How will those poor people cope without their Porsches?
Ukraine has denied the attack on the Midvolga2 ^^ and considers it to be Russian disinformation
Ukraine has rejected accusations of involvement in the attack on the Midvolga 2 tanker, which was sailing from Russia to Georgia under the Russian flag with its crew on board, according to Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi.
"Ukraine has nothing to do with this incident, and we officially refute any allegations of such kind made by Russian propaganda," the spokesperson said.
Tykhyi suggested that Russia may have staged the attack, noting that the vessel's route made no sense. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-denies-involvement-in-attack-on-russian-1764687208.html
What's gone wrong with this page's formatting?
Reported
It was the broken link. Thanks for reporting.
The Russians have formally declined the US deal, but said that they were were 'aspects of the US deal they could support'. Presumably that they'd take the original 28 point one they came up with. Back in Trumps court...
How high is the risk of America withdrawing all support now?
Marco Rubio is not attending the next NATO meeting, Trump seems far more focused on ousting Maduro than anything else atm
It was the broken link.
Sorry!
How high is the risk of America withdrawing all support now?
Tricky one. If Trump withdraws then Trump doesn't get to 'end' the war and get his Nobel Peace Prize. Also, in vaguely related news theres a deep red state election yesterday that the Dems potentially had a change of winning. If they have (or got very close) that might get the GOP a bit twitchy and might start imparting their will a little more as I get the impression the closeness to Russia is very much Trump and his best buddies thing and the rest of the rand and file are against that.
On the other hand Trump sees this as a money/power thing and countries are his least concern, the 'might is right' idealism might mean the most he can do for Putin is to leave them to it without him.
Think it basically depends who speaks to him last before he makes his announcement.
Seems rather late in the day but... EU to ban Russian gas imports next year
The BBC explain:
`Nato chief Mark Rutte assured in his press conference that two-thirds of Nato allies had signed up to the PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) mechanism for funding ongoing weapons purchases for Ukraine from the US'.
From what I understand, the USA are not within the two-thirds of NATO countries funding weapons for Ukraine - just making money off it. If so, then the two-thirds should prioritize weapons from those countries so as to recupe some monies - and seek to stop USA purchases all together. I know certain things like Patriot missiles are a must .. but it should be encouraging other countries to be producing their own in the future.
Russia's tactics of spinning the peace talks into hope for those wavering politicians are causing cracks to appear amongst EU/NATO members.
The carrot...
"Italy’s foreign minister on Wednesday said that it would be “premature” to take part in a NATO program to buy US weapons for Ukraine in light of ongoing diplomatic efforts.
“If we reach an agreement and fighting ceases, weapons won’t be needed anymore,” Antonio Tajani told reporters in Brussels on Dec. 3, according to Bloomberg. “Other things such as security guarantees will be needed.”""Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, a populist figure long sympathetic to Moscow, remarked this week that he “dreams” of repairing ties with Russia."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65539
The lack of public disclosure of progress makes it difficult to assess what's happening between the US and Russia and makes it much easier for either side to spin certain aspects of a "thorough, productive meeting".
In discussions on Wednesday, Belgium is continuing to refuse access to frozen Russian assets. One alternative is for the EU to get a long-term loan but that would almost certainly be vetoed by Hungary
...and the stick
"If the crazy European Union does, after all, try to steal Russian assets frozen in Belgium under the guise of a so-called ‘reparations loan’, Russia may well view this move as tantamount to a casus belli (justification for war*) with all the relevant implications for Brussels and individual EU countries," Medvedev said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-eu-seizure-frozen-assets-could-be-tantamount-justification-2025-12-04/
(*my note)
Seems rather late in the day but... EU to ban Russian gas imports next year
They didn't agree to the outline plan until May 2025. There are concerns that EU importers in long-term contracts may be hit for breaches by Russia
The final date is a few weeks sooner than originally planned, which is quite amazing for the EU. It's only a provisional agreement so far, but is likely to be signed off by both Council and Parliament.
On 7th November it was reported that the US backed the EU in using frozen Russian assets in a reparations loan,
"As the West seeks to ramp up pressure on Moscow, the European Commission has proposed a plan allowing EU governments to use up to 185 billion euros ($217 billion) - most of the 210 billion euros worth of Russian sovereign assets currently frozen in Europe - without confiscating them.
Washington "absolutely supports (the EU) and the steps they're taking right now to be in a position to make use of those assets as a tool," the source said, requesting anonymity to discuss an ongoing issue.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-backs-eu-using-frozen-russian-assets-help-end-war-us-source-says-2025-11-07/
Less than a month later and a U-turn is reported. The now discredited 28-point plan appears to have opened US eyes to the potential for US business to profit from EU-held funds. If the reporting is accurate then it has the potential to split the EU internally and also from the US
"The US has reportedly urged several European governments to push back against an EU proposal to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a multibillion-euro loan for Ukraine, known as the reparations loan."
"Bloomberg, citing unnamed diplomats, reported that the US lobbied several EU governments to oppose the plans."
“This is a European matter, and I do not see any scenario in which the funds we mobilize would flow to the United States in economic terms,” he said, noting that Washington’s interest in securing economic benefit was “legitimate,” but not aligned with the purpose of the European initiative.
“The money must flow to Ukraine and be used to support Ukraine,”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65692
Other reporting is showing a divergence of the US from European NATO. An inward-looking, isolationist US is an America First priority, but it doesn't sit too well with the notion of long-term US exports, especially in lucrative defence sales, and the projection of US power over its allies.
It also misses the point that most US funding for Ukraine didn't go to Ukraine directly but was put into buying new US stock, exporting old stock and projects such as the first TNT factory in the US since 1986.
WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week, a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic.
The message, recounted by five sources familiar with the discussion, including a U.S. official, was conveyed at a meeting in Washington this week of Pentagon staff overseeing NATO policy and several European delegations.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-sets-2027-deadline-europe-led-nato-defense-officials-say-2025-12-05/
"In the past 24 hours, the Trump administration released its new National Security Strategy (NSS). This is a declaratory policy, and a document, that think tanks, national security practitioners as well ad America’s friends and allies have been waiting on for some time. Like most recent M. Night Shyamalan movies, the initial reviews are hardly glowing." Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan. 5th Dec 2025
EUROPE RISKS 'CIVILISATIONAL ERASURE'
In the document, the administration took a dour view of its traditional allies in Europe, warning that the continent faces "civilizational erasure" and must change course if it is to remain a reliable ally for the United States.
The document is the latest in a series of statements by U.S. officials that have upended postwar assumptions about Europe's close relationship with its strongest ally, the United States.
"Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European," the document said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-strategy-document-revives-monroe-doctrine-slams-europe-2025-12-05/
Phillips P O'Brien has written specifically about the European angle of the NSS, while Mick Ryan has covered the Pacific:
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-new-us-national-security-strategy
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/shell-be-right-mate-the-new-us-national
'lips ain't great
NATO: Favorability toward NATO has reached its highest level ever at 68%, with strong bipartisan support for Article V commitments.
Reagan National Defence Survey.
YouTube video (pro Ukrainian guy) on it here
Ukraine: A strong majority (62%) want Ukraine to prevail in its war with Russia, and 64% support sending U.S. weapons, up 9 points from last year, with bipartisan gains (59% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats).
The document that Donald never new existed, Project 25, has something on this in the Defense chapter.
P94 No 3
Transform NATO so that U.S. allies are capable of fielding the great
majority of the conventional forces required to deter Russia while
relying on the United States primarily for our nuclear deterrent, and
select other capabilities while reducing the U.S. force posture in Europe.
Tbh, depending on how much of a bunch of aholes they went about it. That would not be the worst thing for Europe if Europe actually got Its act together.
That "aholes" bit requires a lot of wishful thinking. And has no evidence to warrant it so far, quite the opposite.
That would not be the worst thing for Europe if Europe actually got Its act together.
You're absolutely right. We're at a point where two decisions have to be made: get our collective act together and under whose purview that happens
President Trump has spent a decade calling for NATO members within Europe to take more responsibility and Presidents Obama and GW Bush before that.
The problem is that Trump's pronouncements usually contain a kernel of truth, but it's the other stuff that surrounds it:
- encouraging Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" to allies who don't pay their way
- encouraging far-right parties within Europe by talking-up “civilizational erasure” and “within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European” (NSS Nov2025)
- “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance”, i.e. no entry for Ukraine (NSS Nov2025)
- complaints about EU and UK regulators preventing "free-speech" from US platforms
It's about empowering the US over the EU, which is something that the US doesn't have within NATO and the EU ATM.
The Pentagon specifically talks about European NATO building conventional weapon ability; the subtext is that the US, and Russia, hold the biggest nuclear cards.
The Pentagon specifically talks about European NATO building conventional weapon ability; the subtext is that the US, and Russia, hold the biggest nuclear cards.
It's not going to happen because of the financial and political complexity, but I would really like to see us decouple our nuclear deterrent from the US. More similar to the French model and maybe even in a cost sharing collaboration with them. It's a ridiculous fantasy because our incompetent leaders would probably just sell off AWE capability to French companies and we'd have even less of an "independant" deterrent. Ignore my idle musings. Carry on.....
I trust France on European security a lot more than the US
How Trump has destroyed USA's reputation in less 12 months has been quite amazing.
Whilst it's been no surprise to see Trump and his administration of equally clueless idiots go from one blunder to the next: what has been surprising is how they have been allowed to continue given the (what looks like at this time) irreparable damage Trump etc are causing.
The USA has never looked so weak and vulnerable in my lifetime.
The USA has never looked so weak and vulnerable in my lifetime.
If it were just the US, you'd have to say " F*** 'em, leave 'em to it, they voted for this" but sadly it's affecting us all to a large extent. And Ukraine all the more so.
Trump is a **** (c) Janey Godley
Its been looking increasingly obvious since the early days of Trumps involvement that he is very much on Russia/Putin`s side regarding Ukraine. Yes he has tried to sound tough on Russia/Putin once or twice - but as many times he has actually done nothing of note (sanctions on India buying oil is likely more to do with India having access to an energy advantage to keep their economy growing).
But - its now looking a certainty Trump is fully behind Russia/Putin and sees former western allies as countries he can exploit.
So, question is, when will western countries say enough is enough and walk away from the USA?
Nobody is looking good humouring Trump, and every country is now worse off going along with him .. I`m surprised more hasnt been written about the recent deal regarding pharmaceuticals which will increase costs for the NHS substantially.
Re Trump and Russia, maybe for the Trump thread more than here.
Putin and Lavrov were harping on about a Multipolar world for a long time and things have gone quieter on that but it's probably not gone away. Trump seems to be destablilising the whole world trading structure along with Musk and to a lesser extent, Orban and Fico. Then, Venezuela threats, ICE in the US, Musk and comments about Europe...
Zelensky is doing the rounds again and is in the UK meeting heads of European countries to see what is to be done about the US peace plan. And we have three more years of the Orange Wunderkind. If he lives that long....
Geopolitics. What a time to be alive....
But - its now looking a certainty Trump is fully behind Russia/Putin and sees former western allies as countries he can exploit.
President Trump is sending messages of impatience with Ukraine and specifically President Zelensky, who "hasn’t yet read the proposal,” “his people love it” “Russia is fine with it.”
This may yet become another round of applied pressure through freezing weapons deliveries, intelligence exchanges and the ring-fencing of US tech to Ukraine's territory.
The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on December 7 that the new US NSS is “largely consistent with [Russia’s] vision” and could be a “modest guarantee” that Russia and the United States will be able to continue working toward securing a peace settlement in Ukraine.
Peskov stated that the Kremlin considers the NSS’s call for cooperation with Russia and refraining from listing Russia as a “direct threat” to the United States as a “positive step.”
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated that the updated NSS is a signal that the United States is ready to discuss issues related to the “security architecture,” likely referring to European security architecture and the role NATO plays in it.
Medvedev stated that the NSS “unexpectedly” aligns with Russia’s ideas about the need to share security and respect the sovereignty of states. Medvedev stated that the “window of opportunity for dialogue” is now “ajar.”"The FY26 NDAA not only enshrines the Baltic Security Initiative as a mandatory Pentagon program but also tightens Congress’ grip on US force posture in Europe in ways rarely seen outside a crisis.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-7-2025/
However, US Congress is making itself heard with amendments to the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA - FY2026)
And Congress didn’t stop there. In a sweeping assertion of authority over Pentagon basing decisions, the NDAA prohibits reducing US forces in Europe below 76,000 for more than 45 days, blocks EUCOM from returning or divesting real estate, and bars the removal of major equipment from the theater.
The bill even protects the prized dual-hatted role of EUCOM’s commander as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65767
Alexander Vindman (worth googling for his resumé), a Retired Lt.Col. with the U.S. Army and a former Director for European Affairs at the U.S. National Security Council said,
With regards to Europe, Washington’s goal is to simultaneously support “patriotic” parties in Europe that seek to undermine the EU, demand that European allies spend more on defense, and re-establish “Strategic Balance” with Russia on the continent. These three policy objectives are provided under the banner of “Promoting European Greatness” - despite the fact that they are not only contradictory but also undermine the security and political ties that have defined the European-American relationship for 60 years."
https://substack.com/@avindman/p-180852150
Its pretty obvious that Trump & his goons are aligning totally with Russia now, repeating almost exactly Russia's lies on their inevitable victory, strong Russian economy and Zelensky's legitimacy -
meanwhile Russia is engaged in a hybrid war with Europe & Trump is at the same time attacking the EU for not being fascisty enough
a worrying thread here on a (paywalled) article
https://bsky.app/profile/ftedit.ft.com/post/3m7kk2pnanc2e
The MOD are reporting of the death of a UK serviceperson in an accident whilst observing some form of trials activity.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3e07kxey74o
Sad news indeed.
Its been looking increasingly obvious since the early days of Trumps involvement that he is very much on Russia/Putin`s side regarding Ukraine
I think he's on the side that makes most money. It's as shallow as that. He loves the idea of powerful men running the world and making money.
Sad news indeed
Very.
I'm surprised it's taken this long. It's been clear that UK has a few folk in the country, and that they are actively training and supporting.
.
I think he's on the side that makes most money. It's as shallow as that. He loves the idea of powerful men running the world and making money.
Yep, they've been happy to sell weapons to kill the side he's being alleged to be on side with.
I don't think he's on anyone's side but his.
What I came here to post was... Zelensky 'personally' agrees to elections (there's obviously more going on with that) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/09/zelenskyy-ready-for-elections-after-trump-questions-ukrainian-democracy
What I came here to post was... Zelensky 'personally' agrees to elections (there's obviously more going on with that)
He's agreed only if the US give him proper, firm and enforceable security guarantees,
"I'm asking now, and I'm stating this openly, for the US to help me, perhaps together with our European colleagues, to ensure security for the elections"
The implication is that this could only happen during a lasting peace because 900k troops (as one example) can't vote ATM
President Trump is repeating a Kremlin line that (a) President Zelensky's position is illegitimate and (b) that as such Russia can ignore any peace treaty signed by Zelensky,
A Kremlin official suggested that Russia may try to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine due to the Ukrainian government’s alleged “illegitimacy” – as ISW has long warned.
Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairperson Leonid Slutsky claimed on December 9 that Ukraine must hold elections in order to “legitimize” the government. Slutsky stated that Russia must be “absolutely certain” that no one can challenge the authority of the Ukrainian signatories on a future peace agreement. The Kremlin, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have long used deliberate misinterpretations of Ukrainian law and the Ukrainian constitution to allege that Zelensky is illegitimate.
Slutsky’s statement is in line with ISW’s ongoing assessment that the Kremlin may use its false claims about Zelensky’s illegitimacy to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine at a time of Russia’s choosing. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2025/
It's been reported that part of Ukraine's forces in the Pokrovsk region have withdrawn to preserve lives and consolidate lines.
To give some context:
• Ukraine has completely withdrawn from Pokrovsk before, consolidated and then regained ground.
• Russian forces in that region alone are larger than the entire, full-time, UK Army, Royal Navy and RAF combined
"Syrsky stressed that Myrnohrad is not encircled, though logistics there are difficult but still functioning.
He revealed that this fall there was a moment when Ukrainian troops were no longer present in Pokrovsk, but a subsequent counteroffensive allowed them to regain ground.
According to Syrsky, Russia continues to build up its forces in the Pokrovsk sector, where roughly 156,000 Russian troops* are now concentrated."“A few days ago, I gave the order to withdraw our servicemen from positions 5 - 7 kilometers from Pokrovsk, which still remained there,” he said, adding that those positions could not be rotated and were being penetrated by Russian forces.
Further defending them, he added, “was not advisable.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65929