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Of course it must be wrong, because all STW readers know that Russia is just about to lose.
You were attacking the forum contributors as a whole with your sarcastic, inaccurate snarky comment which appeared to insinuate that all of the forum users were too stupid to share this viewpoint. To me this meets the definition of ad hom. You may disagree and that's fine, but I hope you can agree it was totally unhelpful and contributed nothing to your posting the link to the article. In addition, you offered no comment at all on the article before going on to berate others for not doing so. And now I feel bad for derailing the thread again so I will stop here.
I didn’t attack your position, because you didn’t declare one. Just a link then an insult directed at the rest of us. No attack on you either, just an observation on your communication style. Am I wrong about it?
I think my position was clear from this and previous comments. For future reference, it is that I think that reports of the demise of Russia are exaggerated. I'm not sure who you are referring to by "the rest of us". My dig - if that's what it was - was directed to the folk who are constantly telling us how Russia is about to collapse. I wish that were true but it seems not to be. As regards my communication style, that's for you to say. You may find it abrasive. I find some people's pompous holier-than-thou style irritating. That's my problem.
I am genuinely interested in reading other points of view, as I am very aware our western media picks and chooses what it wants us to see / hear.
To be fair that is not imo a typical attitude on STW threads which have a political slant. Dissenting opinions are generally not well tolerated with accusations of trolling being a typical response. Many seem to prefer the reassurance of unanimity on threads with a political angle.
Going against the general consensus can be a bit like throwing a hand grenade into a thread, I get both DrJ's point and his frustration, even if it was done in his rather abrasive manner.
I generally keep off this thread because I know that providing alternative point of views, especially concerning the behaviour of Western governments, is very likely going to be misinterpreted and frankly I can't be arsed. Invariably it seems to end up that the individual is attacked rather than the point they are making.
For future reference, it is that I think that reports of the demise of Russia are exaggerated.
On that, I agree with you and have said so before. I read the article. It was interesting and grim, as all front line reports are. I'm not sure interviews with selected front line troops reveal much other than the local tactical situation. It is undeniable though, that Russia are making grinding, incremental gains, albeit it at immense cost in lives, materiel and roubles. Much as I wish Ukraine could prevail militarily, I know that they won't. They will have to concede territory in any negotiations, I just hope they can receive a cast iron security guarantee from NATO, the European nations or whoever, to stop Putin having another pop in future
I don't know, I think this thread is fairly balanced until there is some unfortunate (and I think deliberate on occassions) nastiness, which is frankly not needed
I was discussing this very topic with my 2 boys aged 7 and 9 on the way to school this morning. They were asking what a war was, who started it, whose going to win and I was telling them its all very unclear, and that what you see and hear on our media is only half the story.
I also added, they should think about fun, nice stuff like playing with their gerbils and not worry themselves with this sort of thing, as (I very much hope) they will never get close to any of it.
Kids at junior school are discussing this sort of thing in a politer manner than some on here!
, to stop the Putin having another pop in future
Im not sure theres anything that can be done to stop that
As long as Russia keeps getting Troops from NK I cant see how Ukraine will stop the advance in the east, Trumps advisors have been telling Zelensky to drop the conscription age to 18, something hes been resisting for a while.
Russia's economy is taking a battering- inflation at 11%, interest rates at >20%! and the hits on teh russian oil industry from actams storm shadow etc have been relentless, another large depot hit yesterday and sanctions on the shadow fleet of oil tankers that have dodged the emargos so far could make things harder economically
Kids at junior school are discussing this sort of thing in a politer manner than some on here!
Fair comment, apologies for my contribution to any impoliteness.
I really don’t think
I figured that with that hot take. If there's a way to out yourself as having zero understanding, that's the way.
You could have simply asked a question and got some replies that would have given you some information to form an opinion based on reality.
Maybe you should try that next time?
I've just read the Guardian Article and it really flies in the face of some of other stuff I have read over the last few months. In fact it seems guilty of some of the Russian influence and Media hype that people such as Philip oBrian often cite. In fact his latest update directly counters some of the Guardian claims and does so with 'before and after maps' rather than a single map with dubious detail and little substance to back it up. It think the two articles are worth reading back to back to see just how a single viewpoint can be a dangerous thing.
I don't see a Russian collapse as imminent, but I continue to be impressed with the Ukrainian resolve. I very bleakly thought this war would be over in weeks and they would be steamrollered. I don't pray, but I do think about their plight often and hope things get better for them as soon as possible.
I agree. Although I am sadly doubtful that Ukraine will reverse their territorial losses significantly, they have extracted a huge price from Russia for them. I am full of admiration for their courage and determination in the face of such an onslaught. Although by sheer weight of numbers, Russia will likely keep a few obliterated villages and fields, their capacity to do it again any time soon has been massively denigrated by Ukraine. The Baltics, Poland and the whole of Europe owe them a massive debt.
Actual Russian inflation is more like 25/30% not the Russian gov figure.
soviet stckpliles of armour are running very low
Russia is using NK troops
Gasprom is on the verge of bankruptcy
interest rates at 21%
1500+ casualties a day
troops going into battle in civilian vans, or electric scooters,
we don’t know how much more of this Russia can take,
all of this to capture some fields and a couple of towns in the past year.
Yes the imminent demise of Russia may be exaggerated, or maybe not, however the metrics are going in the wrong direction for Russia.
if the west had committed with more aid early on, this would all probably be over by now.
we don’t know how much more of this Russia can take,
A heck of a lot more than most of us in the West can understand. We've not endured what they have for the length of time they have. It's seemingly part of the psyche of being Russian, almost a sense of pride about it.
has been massively denigrated by Ukraine.
Degraded not denigrated. Oops.
They will have to concede territory in any negotiations, I just hope they can receive a cast iron security guarantee from NATO, the European nations or whoever, to stop Putin having another pop in future
I don't think that conceding Ukraine's territory is in anyone's interests, except those of Russia and its allies. Even the arms industry will be kept very busy rebuilding stocks and modernising defence infrastructure within Europe and NATO.
I agree that Ukraine can't win militarily, but demonstrably neither can Russia in an area comprising only 20% of Ukraine; it's a question of either whose resolve fails first or who fails to keep their people behind them.
Russia has an history of ignoring peace agreements; in 10 years time a rebuilt Russia will be after another piece of Europe, which is the bigger picture here, weakening the EU.
Russia is currently influencing Moldova's 2025 Parliamentary Elections by cutting off gas and consequently some power generation. The Russian-aligned administration in Transnistria has refused offers of help from Moldova (and the EU), which has arranged alternative supplies of energy at market rates.
The drip-drip land grab doesn't stop and concessions only encourage it
The other piece I see very little discussed is how much ukraine is hurting and whether they are close to collapsing. They have taken an absolute battering and somehow are still going. Yes I get the resolve of defending family and home, but if you run out of troops / kit / food / energy resolve won't cut it.
Also I watch to see what move putin will pull next - it seems Russia has no interest in a negotiated peace at this time unless the whole of ukraine is ceeded. I don't think anyone foresaw NK troops on the battlefield, and I'm quite surprised it hasn't lead to more sabre rattling / sanctions / whatever against NK to discourage them from sending more.
Reports about Iranian support was very much front and centre of the press for a while, thats diminished to, I presume thats because Iran now has other things to worry about closer to home
And China?
Trump now doesn't seem likely to pull US support immediately
I can't see either side collapsing any time soon unless something game changing happens - it will just be a continued slow grinding advance by Russia taking ukrainian territory at great cost.
The drip-drip land grab doesn’t stop and concessions only encourage it
Sadly I think this is the case. No matter how this ends, Russia has an intention to take more land and more countries. This will outlast Putin, and will be here in generations.
The only future with Russia is a cold war 2, where we freeze them out, arm and prepare ourselves, and support those who have the misfortune to share a border with them.
At the same time Russia will meddle with anything they think 'gains' them something, even if the something is pride or disruption of others. They will carry on terrorising airlines, continue to damage whatever undersea services they can, influence politics anywhere they can...
I don’t think that conceding Ukraine’s territory is in anyone’s interests, except those of Russia and its allies.
I agree, but realistically it's still going to happen. There can't be anyone, including Zelenskyy and his cabinet I imagine, who think this war ends with Ukraine's 2022 borders being restored. Much less it's 2014 borders. I wish it wasn't so, but I think that will be the reality. Quite what Russia will do with a few dozen obliterated villages and contaminated agricultural land populated by people seething with hatred for them is another matter.
Quite what Russia will do with a few dozen obliterated villages and contaminated agricultural land populated by people seething with hatred for them is another matter.
There would be a strong case for allowing residents to choose to move out of such areas and into Ukrainian territory, surely?
There would be a strong case for allowing residents to choose to move out of such areas and into Ukrainian territory, surely?
Considering Russia's terrible demographics, I suspect they won't be hugely willing to let the people go that easily. I think we're also underestimating human stubbornness, anyone who's still there after all this is going to be pretty damn determined to stay put.
Russia is currently influencing Moldova’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections by cutting off gas and consequently some power generation.
Is that impacting Moldova as a whole or just Transnistria?
This popped up today from Starmers visit.
Will outlast Putin and probably the next 2 incumbents.
World Economic Forum kicks of Jan 20th in Davos. Zelensky attending, Trump wordsalading in electronically. I cant find out who from russia will attend but the programme looks interesting.
Is that impacting Moldova as a whole or just Transnistria?
Both although Transnistria worst but then they aint fussed about what their people think so it balances out.
The sole power plant in Moldova is in Transnistria and is gas powered. So shutting that down limits electricity supply. Moldova has some capability to bring in electricity from elsewhere but its more expensive and I dont think meets the full demand.
China is enforcing the new shadow fleet sanctions.The last thing China wants is secondary sanctions with its economy in a frail state.
Is that impacting Moldova as a whole or just Transnistria?
What dissonance said, with a few additions about the political system:
Moldovan citizens living in Transnistria are eligible to vote in Moldova's Parliamentary Election, but voters have to travel because authorities in Transnistria won't host Moldovan voting stations.
Transnistria and Moldova don't agree on numbers of eligible voters, but it's somewhere in the hundreds of thousands and worth influencing when you consider that the Presidential Election was only very narrowly won in October by the pro-EU Maia Sandu with 180k votes between winner and loser.
Moldova, like any country, also has a spectrum of voter loyalties that can be swayed. Citizens are also eligible to vote from other countries and by post, but voter numbers are fewer.
The Moldovan Presidential Elections were full of allegations of bribery, sabotage, etc from both Russia and Moldova, e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23kdjxxx1jo , while Russia's Foreign Ministry representative, Maria Zakharova, talked of "blatant interference" in the election.
slowoldman, there's an article here with useful detail on how power is being used... https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2025/01/moldovas-gas-crisis-is-europes-headache?lang=en
And the power station is owned by Gasprom, (majority stake) - so there’s that.
Now that Biden has shuffled off the stage some interesting reports are coming out, eg that the US and our own lovable Boris Johnson discouraged Ukraine from reaching peace with Russia in 2022
See also this article:
“Leading up to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was launched in June, the Discord leaks and media reports revealed that the US did not believe Ukraine could regain much territory from Russia. But the Biden administration pushed for the assault anyway, as it rejected the idea of a pause in fighting.“
Yup hardly new and its not surprising that the West (& Ukraine) thought that things like removing all western air defenses from ukraine while there were no conditions at all on what Russia could have at the border.... was a very bad idea
Is that being regurgitated as new information?
(also a great example why twitter is a poor source of reliable information or opinion)
I was reading some stuff about Trumps latest speech on ukraine- anyone understand what the last bit is? ukraines not done 'enough?' does he mean lower the conscription age? And if it is easy as a phone call teling Putin to stop?!
Wilkie says Trump will phone Russian President Vladimir Putin and tell him to stop the war
He adds that Trump will tell Ukraine's president Zelensky that he hasn’t done enough "by not calling to the colours the largest segment of your population", continuing that Zelenskyy has left out "males in the population who provide the muscle and the strength".
Wilkie says Trump will phone Russian President Vladimir Putin and tell him to stop the war
Well he said he would stop the war in 24 hours. Has he picked up the phone yet?
Not new information, but surfacing again - call it "regurgitated" if you like.
https://time.com/7207661/bidens-ukraine-win-zelensky-loss/
(also a great example why twitter is a poor source of reliable information or opinion)
Eh?
See also this article:
All put into perspective...
"our own lovable Boris Johnson discouraged Ukraine from reaching peace with Russia in 2022" was discredited at the time. He has an appalling eye for wallpaper, but his eye for a poor peace deal is pretty good.
Caitlin Johnstone writes for RT, part of ANO TV Novosti, a Russian state media company that Ofcom decided wasn't "fit and proper to hold a UK broadcast licence" ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60791734 )
There's a piece by Dan Hanrahan, A Closer Look at the Prose of Caitlin Johnstone, which does what it says on the tin https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/03/11/a-closer-look-at-the-prose-of-caitlin-johnstone/
And if it is easy as a phone call teling Putin to stop?!
President Trump's advisors accepted a week ago that "they were looking at a timeline of months to resolve the conflict, describing the Day One promises as a combination of campaign bluster and a lack of appreciation of the intractability of the conflict" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-advisers-concede-ukraine-peace-deal-is-months-away-2025-01-15/
He's declined to comment further until he's spoken to President Putin
30s of reading that tosh and it was very clear who the paymaster was. Utter garbage.
Hmmm, interesting...
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would likely impose sanctions on Russia if its president, Vladimir Putin, refuses to negotiate about ending the war in Ukraine.
And
Trump said his administration was also looking at the issue of sending weapons to Ukraine, adding his view that the European Union should be doing more to support Ukraine.
And
Trump said he had pressed Chinese President Xi Jinping in a call to intervene to stop the Ukraine war.
"He's not done very much on that. He's got a lot of ... power, like we have a lot of power. I said, 'You ought to get it settled.' We did discuss it."
Chancellor Scholtz is at last coming under pressure over his inaction on certain aspects of defence, NATO and the war in Ukraine.
I get that it is possibly just election bluster, but his rivals for February's Bundestag elections have been making Ukraine a campaign issue. Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv in 2022, which was before Scholtz visited. In December Merz said, "We'll stop making Ukraine fight one-handed, German opposition leader tells Zelenskiy" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-opposition-chief-visits-ukraine-war-dominates-election-campaign-2024-12-09/
Last week "German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock indirectly criticised Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his reluctance to approve a further 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion) in additional military aid for Ukraine." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-foreign-minister-criticises-scholz-blocking-more-ukraine-aid-report-says-2025-01-17/
The elections have been pulled forward from September due to the governing coalition falling apart; we'll see what Scholtz comes back with. Taurus, maybe?
Drip, drip, drip. The second cold war is well underway - at least from one side.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjv7qgpw28o
Slight diversion since teh German elections are mentioned here.
Lots of Afd posters appearing for the elections. Driving home, dear Alice seems to have gained a black moustache on a lot of them with a subtle "Nazis raus" slogan added. Afd + Elon x Nazi salutes = (hopefully) backlash. Afd being sympathetic to Russia.
I'm glad you're seeing vandalised AfD posters, @rickmeister.... In Munich City they have also been taking a battering, but once around the outskirts of town they're seemingly everywhere.
Day 3 of the Trump Presidency, who claimed it was a Day 1 'end it in 24hours' action and 'simple' to end the war. R4 discussing that he has basically issued an ultimatum of more sanctions. And so far sanctions have been already explore the fullest, and Putin does not react to ultimatums in the way Trump expects.....
he has basically issued an ultimatum of more sanctions
I thought he threatened tariffs on Russian imports to the U.S. That must have Putin quaking in his boots.
Importantly, he isn't rolling over on Ukraine and he recognises that he needs to get Russia to the table (carrot)
Now keep the weapons flowing (stick); the last announcement was 9th January https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4025039/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
I already thought Russia had tough sanctions - what more can be done, other than I suppose put pressure on those that are still trading with Russia. Maybe thats the China angle, US will put heavy trade tarrifs on China unless China stops supporting Russia? or something like that?
Day 4 of "I'll sort it in 24hours". Who knows maybe we will all be eating our words in a few months....?!
Afd being sympathetic to Russia.
I had assumed that was where their loyalties might lie. I'd hope it would be an electoral stick to beat them with.
As long as there is a willing market for Russian oil and other resources they can keep fighting. Sanctions on countries helping indirectly in that way would have been a strong move, but a couple of years too late.
Day 3 of the Trump Presidency, who claimed it was a Day 1 ‘end it in 24hours’ action and ‘simple’ to end the war.
One of his aides said the comments were no more than 'Campaign Bluster'.
Otherwise known as 'lies'.
Otherwise known as ‘lies’.
Or "Fake News" perhaps?
One thing America can do is flood the market with oil and tank its price. The collapse oil the oil price was one of the major factors in the fall of the USSR in 91.
Trupms actual claim was he’d end the war in 24hrs, BFORE he took office.
One thing America can do is flood the market with oil and tank its price.
That would require moral courage, selflessness and a willingness to undergo domestic economic pain for the greater good. Chances of that with the orange shit gibbon in the Whitehouse?
One of his aides said the comments were no more than ‘Campaign Bluster’.
You could put that on a bus probably
As I said in an earlier post, 6-9 months ago I was almost 100% certain that a new Trump administration would cut all aid to Ukraine almost immediately, it was a fairly educated assumption too, weighing up the rhetoric of those around him and the general buzz on the right of America.
Now I'm really not sure and I'm beginning to suspect that a lot of the vocal Anti-Ukraine opposition we've seen from Team Trump over the last few years may have come from a simple bad faith domestic political strategy of just reflexively opposing everything Joe Biden did for the sake of it.
He's clearly given up on ending the war on day 1 and has given his envoy 100 days to work on it. He's so far heaped much more pressure on Russia than Ukraine.
I have zero faith that this won't be some sort of cover so that he can seem reasonable when he decides to stiff Ukraine later. However, on Ukraine (unlike on so many of the other early aspects of his regime) his teams's approach so far seems fairly nuanced and not the utter catastrophe I foresaw.
Putin's decision to bet everything on holding out until Trump arrived may be about to backfire if Trump is now being briefed by a National security team who are telling him that Russia is almost cooked and that it will be fairly simple task for Trump to take credit for vanquishing one of America's most implacable foes.
He just may be about to do the right thing for the wrong reasons, if he gets out of the bed on the right side that day anyway.
^^If that happens, much as I despise the bloke I will grudgingly give him credit for it. It's an optimistic take, but it's clear that what he says in opposition and what he is likely to do in government are very different. At the very least I hope he's got everyone in the Kremlin flapping and second guessing.
I think that might be an optimistic assessment of Trump, his latest outburst is to blame Ukraine for the war as they should have "done a deal". I can't imagine what deal would have been acceptable to either side I that scenario!
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-blames-ukraines-zelenskiy-starting-war-with-russia-2024-10-17/
I think that might be an optimistic assessment of Trump, his latest outburst is to blame Ukraine for the war as they should have “done a deal”. I can’t imagine what deal would have been acceptable to either side I that scenario!<br style="box-sizing: border-box; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246/0.5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; color: #ffffff; font-family: Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Noto Sans', sans-serif, -apple-system, 'system-ui', 'Segoe UI', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji'; background-color: #444444;" /> https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-blames-ukraines-zelenskiy-starting-war-with-russia-2024-10-17/
Latest? That's Oct 2024.
Yeah, that's pre-Election, so it's an entirely different Trump apparently.
He's so mercurial and takes everything so personally that either side could end up putting their foot in it by refusing to pay sufficiently grovelly lip service to whatever wizard wheeze he comes up with.
He could tell Russia to sign a ceasefire unaware that a tiny bit of small print hidden in the details is a huge red line for then and then blow a gasket when Putin says no and send Ukraine a full carrier battle group or something.
Zelensky certainly seems to be turning on the charm, fully aware of how this Whitehouse works, he's not dumb.
We should bear this in mind if he starts very publically kissing Donny's shapely behind and not judge him too harshly, it will be toe curling to watch but what would you do if the future freedom of your country was genuinely at stake.... pucker up buttercup!
We should bear this in mind if he starts very publically kissing Donny’s shapely behind and not judge him too harshly, it will be toe curling to watch but what would you do if the future freedom of your country was genuinely at stake…. pucker up buttercup!
Well we can see that happening closer to home with our own PM, who has a lot less at stake than Zelensky! Political pragmatism, I get it. It's hard to watch though!
Trump has the ability to make life vastly harder for the UK economically if he decides to act on his reflexive dislike of Starmer, which is largely due to him being more than 2 inches to the left of Heinrich Himmeler
Sir Keir just needs to keep the UK's head below the parapet.
Can't say I envy him, it's easy to have principles when you don't have to actually run anything.
Latest? That’s Oct 2024.
He said today that Zelensky “shouldn’t have let the war happen”.
Political pragmatism, I get it
You aren't the only one.
President Trump likes strong leaders and President Putin has been on that list, however, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the obliteration of the 3-day operation, followed by Russia's reliance on Iran and NKorea and now the destruction of its economy have tarnished that reputation.
Putin is setting the scene for a negotiated settlement and has fallen back on Trump's words in 2016, "If he praises me, I'm going to praise him back."
"I can't help agreeing with him that if he had been president, if his victory had not been stolen in 2020, then perhaps there would not have been the crisis in Ukraine that arose in 2022," the Kremlin leader said. In February that year Putin launched what he called his "special military operation" in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-putin-says-he-trump-should-meet-talk-about-ukraine-war-energy-prices-2025-01-24/
President Zelensky also has a tarnished reputation with President Trump for failing to dish the dirt on Hunter Biden leading to Trump's 2019-2020 impeachment proceedings
Zelensky certainly seems to be turning on the charm, fully aware of how this Whitehouse works, he’s not dumb.
In the meantime, this business nuance won't be lost on President Trump
U.S. military equipment sales to foreign governments in 2024 surged 29% to a record $318.7 billion, the State Department said on Friday, as countries sought to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine and prepare for major conflicts.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-related-demand-sends-us-arms-exports-record-2024-2025-01-24/
On Moldova
"The leader of Moldova's separatist Transdniestria region, gripped by power and heating cuts, said on Friday that gas reserves would be exhausted within days and urged the central government to end "artificial delays" and provide new supplies."
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said, "The Moldovan government wants the region to have gas, but the Kremlin does not want to resume gas supplies. It wants to create conflict between people on the east bank of the Dniester River and those on the other side."
"Government officials said no payment had been received from Transdniestria to cover gas purchases from international markets." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovas-separatist-region-says-gas-running-out-2025-01-24/
On Slovakia, which is facing the real prospect of an early snap election in the first half of 2025, brought forward from 2027
"Tens of thousands of protesters (est. 60k) thronged a central square in the Slovak capital on Friday, waving banners opposing Prime Minister Robert Fico's policy shift closer to Russia, after tensions between the government and the opposition rose."
"The protests were nearing levels seen in 2018 when the murder of an investigative journalist caused mass demonstrations and forced Fico's resignation."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovak-protests-build-rebuke-pm-ficos-russian-tilt-2025-01-24/
The leader of Moldova’s separatist Transdniestria region
I've issues of the civilians having to deal with freezing cold and lack of power due to leadership and Russian influence.
Equally, pick the Russians as your side and suffer the consequences.
U.S. military equipment sales to foreign governments in 2024 surged 29% to a record $318.7 billion, the State Department said on Friday, as countries sought to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine and prepare for major conflicts.
Which majority makes its way back to America through arms sales. In the grand scheme of things there isnt actually a huge amount of non Ukrainian money that has ended in Ukraine. As they say, war is good for economies with a strong arms industry.
Lots of rumours that the US has stopped all foreign aid except that going to Egypt and Israel.
How that affects Ukranain aid that's already been signed into law ornstuff that's already en route or stuff that's being used to replace kit that allies have already shipped is another matter, the devil will be in the details as always and there's no point freaking out at this point.
Lots of rumours that the US has stopped all foreign aid except that going to Egypt and Israel.
It's "foreign assistance funded by or through the Department and USAID* without the Secretary of State’s authorization or the authorization of his designee” *US Agency for International Development
It doesn't include weapons exports to Ukraine, but it does include areas that may impact, e.g. refugees, cyber-crime and international treaties. The FT reports that a waiver has already been requested, similar to that already included for Israel and Egypt
There will be other discussions around weapons exports I have no doubt, but nothing is happening yet; on a positive note, General Keith Kellogg told Fox News on the 24th that the US was looking at using Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine
using Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine
Meaning the US will gain income from russian assetts to pay for arms to be manufactured in the US for Ukraine. All round win then.
Sweden has detained another ship for dragging its anchor in the Baltic.
Time for robust action on hybrid warfare.
Time people started calling it what it actually is, ie an act of war.
Agreed it is time to call out the acts of terrorism and war which are going on, funded and facilitated by Russia.
Time people started calling it what it actually is, i.e. an act of war.
True, but NATO is not going to start the tanks rolling east over a cable and Russia knows it.
Best way to respond is by arresting and detaining those who carry out these acts and make it very clear that they will not deter Western states from supporting Ukraine...
...which is what they are ostensibly the whole point of Russia doing this in the first place.
TLDR edit: see hatter^^
So you think nato should go to war against Russia ? Im sorry but thats a completely unhinged comment.
Time people started calling it what it actually is, ie an act of war.
Without prejudicing either writer, STW is a microcosm of exactly what Russia intends; falling out amongst allies. If they can split either the EU or NATO they win
Sweden has detained another ship for dragging its anchor in the Baltic.
And yet Sweden buys Russian LNG, while the EU won't sanction its use (although it is on a list of proposed EU sanctions for 2025, with Sweden as a signatory) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ten-eu-countries-call-sanctions-russian-gas-lng-document-shows-2025-01-13/
It would be far less escalatory to agree to sanction Russian products and so cut the use of the Russian fleet, which makes under-the-Article-5-threshold-damage much simpler to police. This increases the apprehension of being caught and losing vessels.
It also means that you don't rely on a supplier that already showed a willingness to cut gas supplies completely, e.g. via NordStream in 2022.
It's interesting to note that new build LNG infrastructure plans increased in 2022, to the point of over-capacity for existing needs, and that calmer heads have prevailed to put some of the new facilities on hold. EU demand for LNG will continue to reduce with climate change targets https://maritime-executive.com/magazine/terminal-trouble-is-the-eu-building-too-many-regasification-terminals
The world needed some Russian oil trade, otherwise it could have triggered a global recession - which no one wants.
But, taking this seriously and being proactive- impounding ships etc and demonstrating that there will be consequences will send the right message to Moscow.
Nothing that's been said excludes this, however, the suspect vessel for the latest incident doesn't fit the profile of the last three attacks.
It seems likely that crewmember(s) have been paid to drop the anchor, rather than a mission for the entire ship. The ship is operated by a company from Bulgaria, which is both a member of the EU and NATO. Its interception probably won't bother Moscow, but does have the potential to sow mistrust in the west https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx9g5wwp89o
Reducing ship movements through sanctions increases the apprehension of being caught, both for individuals and for companies, which reduces the likelihood of damage and increases chances for effective policing and justice. The evidence so far is that sanctioning shipping doesn't invite attacks
The world needed some Russian oil trade...
The attacks on Baltic cables didn't begin until almost a year after the EU banned ship-borne crude oil from Russia in December 2022. Ship-borne refined products were banned in Feb 2023, six months before the first attack
I don’t see any sign that Sweden is blaming Bulgaria for this?
I watched this
its highly (impossible) for this to happen by accident
Ultimately the ships captain is responsible for the ship, right?
I don’t see any sign that Sweden is blaming Bulgaria for this?
I watched this>
Blaming allies only benefits Russia, I think that we're in agreement on those points ^^
Ultimately the ships captain is responsible for the ship, right?
Responsibility and prosecution are two different thresholds. Is a school bus driver responsible for the county lines drugs carried by a school pupil?
I still think that we're in agreement though 🙂