So far I have not seen many (any) convincing “debunked” arguments on social media against the Prof. at all.
Look a bit wider. Four authors for you to read...
Stephen Kotkin, the preeminent historian of the Soviet Union, and Michael McFaul, the US ambassador to Russia between 2012 and 2014, acknowledged that Mearsheimer was “a giant of a scholar” and “one [of] the clearest, most logical realist theorists out there”, but he was wrong to blame the US for Putin’s invasion.
In a more excoriating key, the journalist Anne Applebaum accused Mearsheimer of being Putin’s useful idiot, tweeting that his article had given the Kremlin its talking points for the war.
Lawrence Freedman, the New Statesman contributor and a world authority on theories of war, has known Mearsheimer since the 1980s, but he spoke for many of his detractors when he described his position on Ukraine as “unforgivable”.
“John simply can’t explain Russian behaviour because he is too focused on the international system and ignores the domestic forces at play. He suggests that Ukraine was about to join Nato, but it wasn’t, and he seems to find it reasonable to deny Ukraine the right to chart its own course. He also can’t detect Russia’s colonial attitudes towards Ukraine. I would consider myself a realist, but it is a realism based on assessing the situation as you find it rather than how you wish it to be based on some dogmatic theory.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2023/09/tragedy-john-mearsheimer
i prefered this thread when it was focusing on news and events and you know real tangible stuff thats actually happening in ukraine, since musk twitter is no longer as easy to use to find breaking information
its been hijacked again just scrolled through pages of frankly mostly nonsense
i might make projections / have an opinion about what putin or trump will do but i dont try and ram it down others throats nor argue with some other non expert person on the internets view if its different, because it doesnt matter what you or I think about it. unless someone on here is in putins inner council and is leaking his thinking?
i prefered this thread when it was focusing on news and events and you know real tangible stuff thats actually happening in ukraine, since musk twitter is no longer as easy to use to find breaking information
Yup. I found that useful as well
And you think that a Western backed coup to overthrow Yanukovych provided reassurance to Russia that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO?
The two issues are totally separate. The "Western backed coup" was about ordinary Ukrainians wanting to join the EU, as had been agreed by a majority in Ukraine's parliament and promised by Russia-leaning Yanukovych, who changed his mind at the eleventh hour in November 2013. He then decided to align with Russian economic bodies
Timeline:
21st November 2013 Ukraine civil unrest (Euromaidan)
21st February 2014 Yanukovych fled, eventually to Russia
22nd Feb Ukraine's parliament scheduled Presidential Elections
26th Feb 2014 NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Ukraine that membership was an option if that was what the country wanted
??Feb (the start date is difficult to pin down because Russia already had a military lease) Russia took Crimea during Feb and March, declaring it "annexed" on 18th March 2014
??March 2014 Russia invaded the Donbas region of Ukraine, using Russian military veterans under the guise of local separatists (again, difficult to specify a date)
Ukraine's parliament hadn't removed its militarily non-aligned status before Russia invaded, they hadn't had time for another poll on NATO alliance as referred to earlier ^^.
It was an invasion because Yanukovych failed to align Ukraine with Russian interests
its been hijacked again just scrolled through pages of frankly mostly nonsense
I agree. I'm out until it settles down again.
The same old nuclear world war and Ukraine wanting membership of NATO since 2008 leading to war points have been raised by the same protagonists on at least three occasions this year. Those points have been answered several times now
Had NATO ruled out the prospect of Ukraine joining from the outset we would probably be in a very different place today
Why? You really think the main motivation for Putin's invasion of Ukraine was the threat of NATO encroachment? That was just his excuse. Putin's been very vocal on how he thinks the break up of the Soviet Union was disastrous and should never have been allowed to happen and is clearly bent on reforming some version of it. Or if you mean Ukraine wouldn't have been so prepared for invasion and would already have been overrun and annexed - you're probably right.
As for the future, I think Trump might be able to get a ceasefire agreed, followed by years of protracted negotiations that don't go anywhere, before it all kicks off again. The key will be whether sanctions remain in place during that time, if they don't Russia will be able to rebuild it's military much faster than Ukraine. I'm not really sure how NATO counters that, especially without US backing. Putin will no doubt throw his toys out of the pram anytime any military (or even just economic aid) is mooted for Ukraine and they'll probably back down vs risk re-igniting the war.
So I think, despite Putin's recent nuclear rhetoric, he's ready to play the long game and rely on Trump screwing over Ukraine. That said maybe he'll also seek to split NATO and use a tactical nuke close to Trump's inauguration - most of NATO would likely support a non-nuclear military response but it's doubtful Trump would and I'm sure he'd be using funding threats etc. behind the scenes. I'm not sure EU+UK would risk a military response without US backing so it would create a lot of bad blood, maybe enough to fragment NATO with a bit of Russian covert interference.
So, what’s the ‘End Game’ here?
What’s trying to be accomplished?
Russia / Putin - want all of Ukraine to do with what they please, and then to continue to invade more countries.
Ukraine - their sovereign land back.
How, not a clue.
I too used to drop into ****ter to get some updates of progress and issues. Has anyone found such information from other socials such as Bluesky, Mastadon or even Reddit? While not fully accurate, the few 'on the ground' in Ukraine did bring rapid and focussed news.
So far I have not seen many (any) convincing “debunked” arguments on social media against the Prof. at all.
Translation: I haven't looked for any. There's loads BTW if you do an even casual search for articles critical of Mearsheimer's analysis, but anyway, summary below;
1. He ignores the fact that Ukraine, like many other former soviet states had been actively seeking political and military alliances with the EU and western states since the fall of the Soviet Empire and the end of the cold war.
2. His timing is wonky, his account cannot satisfactorily account for the timing of the invasion, in that Ukraine at the time had had its NATO membership put on hold - and was extremely unlikely to go ahead and can't explain why former Warsaw pact states have avoided a similar fate. A more likely cause of the invasion is Russian domestic political expediency.
3. Offensive realism is not a credible guide to the behaviour of modern states, the breakup of the Soviet Union, Germanys relative weakness militarily post reunification, peace amongst traditional warring European states, all really demonstrate the lack of coherence of such a theory. Even if you accept that a Ukraine in NATO is an existential threat to Russia (which not even Russian propaganda and rhetoric was saying at the time) the timing of Russian invasion still took some of its own satellite states and political allies by surprise, and ultimately it still doesn't abdicate Russia from its responsibility and culpability in starting a war for which there was no pressing urgency -Wars are started by states pulling the trigger, not by those seeking treaties and alliances
4.For such a theory you'd hope that Mearsheimer would have some bang to rights evidence. In fact he relies totally on selective and uncritical reading of official Russian documents, and relies in part at least of believing that Putin is sincere in his beliefs and statements, and said that he believes Russia had no Imperial motivations - Facts on the ground since as proved the Prof 100% wrong on that.
I don't think he's an apologist, but most if not all of what Mearsheimer was saying pre-invasion has turned out to be baloney. I'm not surprised though, that you're still clinging to it.
I’m confused by bears, seagulls and eric cantina. Never mind what someone said in 2008 and Boris Yeltsin.
Another point scoring thread.
Don't worry, I predict a long period of normality returning in which everyone on this thread agrees and echoes each other's opinions.
Until the next annoying interruption.
The same old nuclear world war and Ukraine wanting membership of NATO since 2008 leading to war points have been raised by the same protagonists on at least three occasions this year. Those points have been answered several times now
Speaking on my own behalf re-raising the prospect of Nuclear War; some of us don’t read this thread daily, can’t remember years of posts and cannot be arsed to scroll through 508 pages. Plus, the daily situation and narrative changes. Putin has raised the prospect of Nuclear war more times than I have, and each time the situation is different, just becuase it bores you / you have a better memory than I have doesn’t mean I should be immediately discounted because I raised the question again, specifically under different circumstances becuase I am concerned and seek the opinion of those better educated in the matter.
Until the next annoying interruption.
I don't think anyone on the thread has any problem in hearing views different to their own, I think the actual situation on the ground has clearly moved on from recycled nonsense that have been been shown to be based in nothing but revisionist Russian myth-making and endless contrarianism from some posters.
I agree. I’m out until it settles down again.
It's not the same without the obscure military acronyms, and other masturbatory aids.
its been hijacked again just scrolled through pages of frankly mostly nonsense
The thread title is Ukraine, and we're discussing Ukraine. Doesn't really matter if what is being discussed is a load of bollocks or not, that's what internet forums are for. If you want a thread specifically limited to flag waving, tracking military movements and salivating over the latest military hardware go and create another one.
I don't see what's so interesting anyway, they're stuck in a stalemate lobbing missiles and artillery at each other and that will no doubt continue ad infinitum until someone has the courage to do something about the pointless slaughter of young men. Why anyone would want to pore over the finer detail of that I have no idea.*
*Edit: Actually scratch that last comment, I absolutely do understand. Every time there is a war whether it's in Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan or wherever, a particular group of (mostly) men get very excited and treat it like some sort of ghoulish spectator sport. And it's generally the blokes who have never been in the services or near any sort of danger too. I have huge respect for those on this thread who can talk from experience of war, but the rest of you can keep it quite frankly.
Russia / Putin – want all of Ukraine to do with what they please, and then to continue to invade more countries.
More specifically, they want to push west until they have a defensible natural barrier to prevent further invasions, which sounds fairly reasonable until you realise that the barrier in question is the mountains that run North from the Western edge of the back sea, to the baltic.
In order to achieve this they will have to occupy and make into vassal states Ukraine, Poland, The Baltic States, Czechia, Moldova and half of Romania, an untold toll of human death and misery to appease the paranoia of one old man.
No 'appeasing' of Russia will work unless it offers them this, Ukraine's people evicting their Russian puppet leader to move towards the EU in 2014 endangered this whole project which is why Russia invaded them. NATO membership was not in any way on the cards at the time, Ukraine's democratic awakening, European aspirations and defiance of their Russia 'masters' was what triggered Putin's wrath,
I think Mearsheimer's pre-war analysis was well-intentioned but it assumed good faith on Russia's part when there was none and as a result it's aged horribly.
I find it rather odd that the people who want Israel to GTFO of Gaza don't feel the same way about Ukraine...
It wasn't aimed at you.
The history of Ukraine's relationship with NATO until 2014 hasn't changed, but the same few seem to think it worth raising every now and then
I find it rather odd that the people who want Israel to GTFO of Gaza don’t feel the same way about Ukraine…
And I find it rather odd that the people who trumpet Israel's right to kill Palestinian children - in Gaza or otherwise - are upset about Russia bombing power stations.
It's not so much the topic or scope of the discussions on the last couple of pages which bothers me but the tone. Far too much points scoring and insults to be useful or helpful.
.
I said something a couple of pages ago, Poopscoop disagreed, so he said, clearly and politely, why he thought I was incorrect and what he thought was more likely to happen and why he thought that.
Can we all try to be more like Poop please?
I find it rather odd that the people who want Israel to GTFO of Gaza don’t feel the same way about Ukraine…
You mistake what people want for what they recognise as reality. I would love Putin to get out of Ukraine as much as I would love Israel to get out of Palestine. It's not going to happen though is it? Just like I want negotiations in Israel/Palestine to bring the senseless slaughter to an end, I want the same in Ukraine.
I'm amazed that the people who support western involvement in Ukraine don't also show the same dislike of the genocidal actor in Israel/Palestine. Supporting Ukraine with miltary resources and support Israel doesn't look very consistent to me. The only common factor I can see is that Western arms companies make enormous amounts of money, and I think that might explain quite a lot about why western govts are involved in these two conflicts.
I’m amazed that the people who support western involvement in Ukraine don’t also show the same dislike of the genocidal actor in Israel/Palestine.
You're assuming they don't and in many cases, mine included you'd be absolutely wrong. There is a Gaza thread and there is a Ukraine thread.
There is a Gaza thread and there is a Ukraine thread.
It wasn't me who was trying to link or equate the two issues in the first place. I've got no interest in trying to link them, they're completely separate things with different countries, people and histories. Doesn't make any sense to apply what happens on one to the other.
Although the apparent inconsistency in the western approach is interesting and very illustrative. It's almost like the west doesn't really care much about what's happening on the ground, and only what they can get out of it.
Meanwhile back to Ukraine - I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson - they still do reserve the right to use the death penalty and the UK is intensely disliked by Putin at the moment. He was caught in Russia and they may deem him a spy.
Although the apparent inconsistency in the western approach is interesting and very illustrative. It’s almost like the west doesn’t really care much about what’s happening on the ground, and only what they can get out of it.
I think that's been sadly true for many of the conflicts in the last 50 years.
It’s almost like the west doesn’t really care much about what’s happening on the ground, and only what they can get out of it.
Welcome to diplomacy 101... first time?
If you think 'the West' is cynical you wait until you meet the rest of the world.
In this instance an independent and free Ukraine is actually both in our interests and the right thing to do, a very rare instance of self-interest and the moral imperative pulling in the same direction.
I think that’s been sadly true for many of the conflicts in the last 50 years.
You missed a couple of zeros from that number.
If you think ‘the West’ is cynical you wait until you meet the rest of the world.
I think you'd struggle to find many other countries more cynical and destructive than western imperialist powers who have murdered millions, suppressed entire continents, destroyed numerous indigenous cultures and appropriated natural resources on a scale never seen before. We wrote the book on it, and the likes of Putin and other dictators are just following in our wake. Probably needs another thread for that though.
Strokes goatee, adjusts thick-rimmed glasses, have you considered, America bad?
Ok, at the risk of stirring up the whole Gaza debate... Sorry.
I don't think they are entirely separate issues. Iran is a major ally of Russia. Iran are also the major supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah. It's not entirely inconceivable that Russia has asked Iran to stir up some unrest in their neck of the woods to at least distract, and hopefully divide, the west whilst they get on with their own mission in Ukraine. Whether they could have foreseen what's actually happening now I don't know, it's possible it got out of hand/went better than expected, depending on which side you're on.
We wrote the book on it,
Maybe updated it a bit with modern technology but the Mongols definitely added a couple of chapters and the Neo-Assyrians started it off.
Whilst they are plenty of negative things to say about our lot over the years at least there isnt a nice sculpture of Victoria having lunch at Buckingham palace with a decapitated head or two of her vanquished foes hanging behind her.
/Ghengis Khan has entered the chat
Whether they could have foreseen what’s actually happening now I don’t know
Everything I have read suggests the Iranians didnt know about Hamas attack up front and would have been unlikely to have been in favour of it. The lower level conflict suited them better.
Hezbollah for example basically didnt get involved beyond the bare minimum until the Israelis escalated. If it was planned by the Iranians I would have expected them to have launched a major offensive shortly after the Hamas attack.
Meanwhile back to Ukraine – I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson – they still do reserve the right to use the death penalty and the UK is intensely disliked by Putin at the moment. He was caught in Russia and they may deem him a spy.
Unfortunately it seems it's already making a big show on Telegram. I don't think it will end well for the silly young fella. Putin may want to make another show of scaring the West here.
Iran is a major ally of Russia.
Oh come on, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation share absolutely nothing in common, bar one thing - both face intense Western hostility and they have been driven into each other's arms by Western policies.
Their relationship is one of convenience and mutual benefit and nothing more - the ayatollahs and Putin's oligarchy could not possibly be more ideologically at odds.
Iran has become a world expert at circumventing and minimising the effects of Western imposed sanctions, they are now helping the Russians with regards to sanctions because it serves their interests, as does supplying them with hardware such as drones, not for any other reason.
With growing Western hostility towards China, and which no doubt will accelerate under Trump, expect China to increase its cosy relationship with Russia and Iran, and again despite the fact that they share nothing in terms of values and ideology - the Chinese government has a long history of brutally oppressing Muslims, for example.
The history of Western foreign policy is the history of bad decisions. Bad decisions which invariably appear to bite them on the arse, eventually.
There is a blind spot by many with regards to the negative effects of Western foreign policy, no doubt it will continue even when Donald Trump becomes the Leader of the "Free World" in a couple of months time.
Maybe updated it a bit with modern technology but the Mongols definitely added a couple of chapters and the Neo-Assyrians started it off.
Where do the Vikings fit into that as well?
Anyhow, this thread is about Ukraine and while I understand the world is deeply connected in culture and politics, I do think we need to keep it focussed on Ukraine.
I also think we need to agree to differ. I don't think I will ever completely agree with dazh or chekw, and while I have appreciated their alternative views, always arguing will get us just all het up. So a view point is that - and we do not always need to win a point or persuade people around. Do please keep posting, but let us not get buried.
There are more important things in life, like riding bikes.
(Yes I am new, no I have no problem with falsehood and untruth being challenged, but once it is done, let us move on and not sustain a perpetual argument?)
I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson
Me too, knowing his service history it's unlikely he's had any of the training that might help keep him safe or be useful to help manage the mental aspect of captivity.
There is a blind spot by many with regards to the negative effects of Western foreign policy, no doubt it will continue even when Donald Trump becomes the Leader of the “Free World” in a couple of months time.
There is? I've seen none of that in this thread. Some do seem to have a blind spot as regards Russian foreign policy though.
In good news, I see the Ruble has once again put on a dive today:
https://www.xe.com/en-gb/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1M
Surely we are at a stage where even the hardiest of Russian allies is struggling to take payment in Rubles, and that other currency in Russia is now all but spent? Internally, this drop combined with north of 20% interest and inflation is going to see prices just rocket for every day food etc?
I think the issue with that is that our purveyors of alternative truths remain adherent to those truths even after their thorough debunking, and bring them up again ad-nauseum.
Indeed, they follow mantra 'The more I write the more I'm right'.
I also see this is the response from Poo-tin and co, clearly only a step from nuclear....
I think you’d struggle to find many other countries more cynical and destructive than western imperialist powers who have murdered millions, suppressed entire continents, destroyed numerous indigenous cultures and appropriated natural resources on a scale never seen before.
Not really... Russia for starters
Just because they tended to spread their territory on land at the expense of their immediate neighbors rather than by sailing around the world doesn't make the Russian Federation any less of an Empire and if you read even the most cursory history of Russian since Ivan the Terrible I think you'll find they tick every box on your list, often many times over and frequently with quite breathtaking brutality.
Where do the Vikings fit into that as well?
That's an easy one.......the word 'Russian' comes from Ruse' a Viking group who founded the medieval state of Kievan Rus'. Note also the connection with the name of the capital city of Ukraine.
Oh come on, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation share absolutely nothing in common, bar one thing – both face intense Western hostility and they have been driven into each other’s arms by Western policies.
Their relationship is one of convenience and mutual benefit and nothing more
I don't know disagree with any of that, but what's important is the outcome rather than the reasoning behind it. "My enemy's enemy is my friend" has been the basis of many an alliance
I wonder how all this would be if Russia still owned Alaska.
Not only Alaska, but California as well. Fort Ross US history could've been so very different at any stage in the early/mid 19thC
With growing Western hostility towards China, and which no doubt will accelerate under Trump, expect China to increase its cosy relationship with Russia and Iran
Maybe not. China is keen on getting a large slice of Russia that they took from the old Chinese empire a while ago (Vladivistock and the like). Some Russia towns in the east are chinese apart from name only by all accounts as they buy stuff up and their people start moving in.
China also sends a very small percentage of its exports to Russia so if it choses Russia over US/EU then its going to take a massive hit on its income.
Everything I have read suggests the Iranians didnt know about Hamas attack up front and would have been unlikely to have been in favour of it. The lower level conflict suited them better.
Hezbollah for example basically didnt get involved beyond the bare minimum until the Israelis escalated. If it was planned by the Iranians I would have expected them to have launched a major offensive shortly after the Hamas attack.
Slight diversion (will not repeat in this thread)
None of the Islamic world leaders knew about Hamas' attack otherwise that would not happen. If Iran knew, Israel would know too because they have many moles in Iran and plan would leak out easily. Hamas' action is to wake up the entire Islamic world and not the Islamic leaders (too cosy sitting high up on their "thrones"). Notice the world Islamic leaders only started to voice their concerns after the decimation of the Palestinian population? Too late, because they are all in trouble now (distrust in their leaders has started) especially those that have began to inch closer to the Western policies. Israel may have won the battle against Hamas but it actually spells the beginning of an end.
Oh, the common denominator is US. i.e. US applying the old world diplomacy.
Meanwhile back to Ukraine – I worry that Russia might well make a show of James Anderson – they still do reserve the right to use the death penalty and the UK is intensely disliked by Putin at the moment. He was caught in Russia and they may deem him a spy.
If he is caught inside Russia, then they will consider him a spy and probably belong to some of the special force gathering information etc. Probably will need Tom Hanks (a good lawyer like the movie Bridge of Spies) to negotiate an exchange.
In good news, I see the Ruble has once again put on a dive today:
Yes, against US Dollar etc, but as long as their trading partners accept Ruble the value of Ruble remains. If US or the West sanctions those that trade with Russia then they will cause a major problem. i.e. Dollar dumping or avoidance of the payment system (if I own the payment system I would be rich beyond my dream ...)
China is keen on getting a large slice of Russia that they took from the old Chinese empire a while ago (Vladivistock and the like). Some Russia towns in the east are chinese apart from name only by all accounts as they buy stuff up and their people start moving in.
China also sends a very small percentage of its exports to Russia so if it choses Russia over US/EU then its going to take a massive hit on its income.
That is precisely my point. Western foreign policy is forcing a relationship which otherwise would be unlikely to exist. And the second Trump presidency's policy towards China is likely to accelerate this process.
China-Russia: an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world
https://www.ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955
(This FT article shouldn't be behind a paywall, it details how Western sanctions have brought the two countries much closer economically)
Edit: Actually it does seem to be behind a paywall now, this link will circumvent it:
https://archive.li/2024.05.15-114410/https://www.ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955
Rubble to the dollar now 107.7 that’s a devaluation of 10% in a week!
Ukraine continues to fire short range missiles into Russia- we are not at war with Russia, MAD did not happen (I know, amazing right, I was convinced it nuclear war this time) -
So what’s happening?
Russia continues to make small advances at a cost. 1400/1900 troops a day, they are running out of AFVs and are now using civilian vans in their assaults, for instance.
the economy is looking very shaky, industry is short on manpower,
how long can Russia keep this up?
how long can Russia keep this up?
To be fair, we've been asking this for months on here. There have been many predictions of Russia's imminent collapse that haven't come to fruition, so I've become quite sceptical of new ones. Like it or not, I think we have to admit they are more resilient than many of us (me included) gave them credit for. I'm not saying they can carry on for ever with such losses and economic impact, but it might be for a good while longer yet. Although, I'm sure Ukraine's resolve is far greater as they are fighting for their very existence rather than imperial conquest.
Like it or not, I think we have to admit they are more resilient than many of us (me included) have them credit for.
So far the Russian Army has lost 700,000 (at least) troops, some 3,500 MBT, and well over 7,000 armoured vehicles. The reason they cam keep going is the vast stockpiles of ex-Soviet era tanks, and vehicles in storage. The Russian MOD reckons it can bring at least 1,200 tanks a year to front line service - although these are now T80/T72 era and are comparatively vulnerable. But much much smaller numbers of more sophisticated tanks like the T90 ( its estimated they can only build about 28 a year) Given Russian tactics though - quantity over quality, and a high tolerance for casualties, it doesn't really matter. The one area that Russia has a massive advantage over Ukraine (and Western/NATO forces for that matter) is artillery. The MSTA-B and D30 are both more accurate and can sustain a higher rate of fire than anything the west can field. Its not an overstatement today that without them, the war would look significantly different. Now that N Korea are supplying rounds, and Syria are supplying the forged casings for artillery rounds, Russia can probably sustain the offensive at least into 2025 at the rate they're going
Interestingly enough, Russia are also modifying their battlefield Army organisation, they've reverted to more traditional (read Soviet) Battalion organisations - operation is now at ( below Combined Arms Armies) smaller Line and Storm battalions which are tactically easier to re-deploy and manoeuvre. The significant detail is that like Ukraine, Russia has lost a good portion of it's senior battlefield leadership and is very hastily training more junior officers to replaced those lost and these are done in training battalions on the border. After the Wagner crisis, more and more of the Army is being restricted to these smaller and more localised organisations, although there's still something approaching half a million Russian troops in Ukraine.
how long can Russia keep this up?
Just a week longer that the Ukrainians.
Also
The reason Russia can sustain that many lost troops is that of course these are mostly contract soldiers as opposed to the conscript army. The two are very different. After the experience of Afghanistan, the Russian public were horrified at the loss, and new laws were implemented that meant that conscripts weren't allowed to be deployed overseas. Something that Putin has maintained. All the current losses are being sustained by contracted soldiers, and recruitment is currently still at about 85% of target - the money on offer is too good to ignore for many.
To be fair, we’ve been asking this for months on here.
And to be fair I was 100% one of the people who believed the rational that the Russian economy would hit the buffers in late 2023, I reckoned without the massive boost the global spike in energy prices in 2022 gave them, the creation of the 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers to get their hydrocarbons onto the market and the way the emergency measures they put in place prevented capital flight and staved off collapse.
It does however, look like those emergency measures are finally starting to run out of steam, for the Rouble to be in freefall despite eyewatering interest rates of 21% and with the 'unofficial' non-government doctored inflation rate reckoned to be around 27% on food, the pressure suddenly seems to be mounting. The massive reserves of gold and foreign exchange they started the war with are now also dwindling.
This has all happened fairly rapidly, the old adage of this kind of thing happening "gradually. then suddenly" seems to apply here.
recruitment is currently still at about 85% of target – the money on offer is too good to ignore for many.
This is both a major factor in why Russia has been able to continue the war and a huge part of why the economy may be about to crash.
If you're a man of military age in Russia you're currently being offered one-of enlisting bonuses of $30,000 (or 3,000,000 Roubles) to sign up, that's a crazy amount of money and it's working but it's costing the Russian state dearly.
The real kicker is that most of the industry needed to make the war materials is competing for those same precious workers so they've had to massively increase wages as well in order to retain staff.
As a result many Russians have felt for the last few years they were doing very well out of the war and this has been key to maintaining Russian public support for it.
However, this has now lead to skyrocketing inflation which is screwing pensioners, state employees and anyone not befitting from the war economy. Civilian businesses now cannot borrow at anything approaching sensible interest rates so investment in that sector has almost stopped as well.
The Ruble is definitely worth keeping an eye on over the next few days. Something seems to be up/about to happen.
Civilian businesses now cannot borrow at anything approaching sensible interest rates so investment in that sector has almost stopped as well.
Government borrowing will be more expensive as well, assuming that they can borrow under sanctions
There are benefits to high inflation, but GDP appears to be falling as well, which can cause lower tax revenues
However, this has now lead to skyrocketing inflation which is screwing pensioners, state employees and anyone not befitting from the war economy.
Absolutely, however, at some point the state has to pay the rising costs of its investment in the war economy.
how long can Russia keep this up?
This article argues that it might be in Russia's interests to prolong the war, if it can. The question is whether a suffering population shares that view
A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse. Having transformed the little industry it had to focus on the war effort, and with a labour shortage problem worsened by hundreds of thousands of war casualties and a massive brain drain, the country would struggle to find a new direction.
Thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin wall, it has become clear that resource-rich Russia has become much poorer than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.
The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war and deal with that kind of economic reality. So it cannot afford to win the war, nor can it afford to lose it. Its economy is now entirely geared towards continuing a long and ever deadlier conflict. https://theconversation.com/russias-economy-is-now-completely-driven-by-the-war-in-ukraine-it-cannot-afford-to-lose-but-nor-can-it-afford-to-win-221333
Thing is, we don't get to hear about how much ukraine is hurting - I see very little reporting on the ukrainain economy or its ability to replace lost soldiers. I'm sure the information is out there, but it would be silly to assume there are signs Russia is in troube and not look to ukraine to compare.
Its turned into a battle of attrition - whilst the west can prop up ukraines economy and provide weaponry to some extent, ukraines fighting population is a finite resource and it must be getting close to being exhausted, surely, they have also lost many many soldiers. Russia is sourcing troops from NK and Yemen, buying them with oil to prop up its forces. And weaponry from NK and Iran - though I imagine Iran is sending less than expected since things kicked off on their door step.
Russia is currently advancing faster than at any time since the start of the war, at huge cost yes, but it is slowly capturing more territory
I don't want to be negative but it doesn't look good for ukraine, feels like they are only just holding on
Now that N Korea are supplying rounds
Their troops are turning up fully equipped with artillery and MLRS as well.
20,000 containers are estimated to have been exported to Russia by NK since August 2023, including 170mm self-propelled artillery and 240mm howitzer https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41325
Russia is currently advancing faster than at any time since the start of the war, at huge cost yes, but it is slowly capturing more territory
Fields and farming communities in the main, relatively (compared to 2023) quick advances in rural areas...
Russian forces notably have been bypassing Ukrainian strongpoints, and Ukraine still has several well-defended cities in Donetsk Oblast, such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, that Russian forces likely cannot seize as rapidly as they have with the rural fields near Pokrovsk. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have not been able to restore operational maneuver to the battlefield to make deep penetrations into Ukrainian positions, as seen in the initial months of the full-scale invasion. Russian forces have instead been exploiting identified vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses to make gradual advances. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-26-2024
It's a land grab exploiting the long front-lines that Ukraine cannot hope to secure
I don’t want to be negative but it doesn’t look good for ukraine, feels like they are only just holding on
They need more support, some in the west should read this article. Here's the last line...
Nobody in their right mind wants a third world war. So let's not bring it about by abandoning the people who are holding it back. https://substack.com/home/post/p-152140067
Thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin wall, it has become clear that resource-rich Russia has become much poorer than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.
If Putin had pursued a policy of integration and economic development with all their natural resources and huge population I suspect they'd be knocking on the door of world super-power by now. But he chose to be a massive **** instead and ****ed the whole country. Beggars belief really.
interesting article about Russia's new weapon
Still can't believe that Pokrovsk is still holding out after the sheer volume of men and material the Russians have chucked at it.
it's been about to 'fall any day now' for months.
I'm sure it's been hellish for the defenders, but unless the Wes massively steps up selling very inch of soil for as many dead Russians as possible remains Ukraine's best hope of breaking the Russian home front. Grim stuff.
If Putin had pursued a policy of integration and economic development with all their natural resources and huge population I suspect they’d be knocking on the door of world super-power by now
Im no apologist for Putin, but I suspect the die was already cast by the time he became president. The free market economic shock therapy under Gorbachev and Yeltsin resulted in the creation of the billionaire oligarchs, who were always going to act as a barrier to anything except more oligarchy.
It would have been an impressive and highly principled politician who could have turned that situation around.
Russian forces notably have been bypassing Ukrainian strongpoints, and Ukraine still has several well-defended cities in Donetsk Oblast, such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, that Russian forces likely cannot seize as rapidly as they have with the rural fields near Pokrovsk.
Russians trying to surround the Ukrainians?
Or Russians overstretching their supply lines and risking being cut off deeper inside Ukraine?
Advancing quickly can be a double edged sword. I don't know which way it's going to go in this case
Bit of column a bit of column B I suspect.
Would be great if this is the beginning of massive devaluation and hyper inflation.
Morning catch ups as always....
A different track following some comments on twitter last night about BRICS. Iran and Russia have completed their "de-dollarization" project for bilateral trade. It is suggested that this will follow to an extent across all the BRICS countries and possibly the PetroYuan is the currency of choice... Sticking point being the lack of a SWIFT like payment system which is another work in progresss.. I think chewy made the point that the dollar value is irrelevant if it's not needed.... and crucially it is a way of circumventing sanctions.
Russia chipping away at the west from another angle.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407131723
I think chewy made the point that the dollar value is irrelevant if it’s not needed…. and crucially it is a way of circumventing sanctions.
That may be so but the ruble has dropped a lot recently. If the reference currency is not the ruble then they will still be selling Russian stuff cheaply and importing more expensive stuff
China has been developing Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) since 2015 ^^ as an answer to US sanctions
It can interact with SWIFT and uses their formats and messaging system
Advancing quickly can be a double edged sword. I don’t know which way it’s going to go in this case
If Ukraine keeps chipping away at logistics behind the lines, not well.
Russia doesn't have overwhelming numbers of trained, experienced troops and the necessary vehicles. They've lost 50% of their pre-war troop numbers, which they're hastily back-filling
Rupee
India wanted to pay for Russian oil in rupees because exchange costs them money. This led to tankers sitting off the coast for a month last year because Russia wanted yuan or $US.
They settled on UAE dirhams for a while, but their banks started to restrict dealings with Russia because of international sanctions
I think chewy made the point that the dollar value is irrelevant if it’s not needed
That makes no sense.
There is still a market rate for the USD vs CNY vs RUB etc. Although Russia’s oil can be priced in CNY instead of USD that still gives it an implied price in USD - and their customers still won’t be generously paying above the real market rate: quite the reverse.