So basically Vlad the Mad is sending in Dads Army.
As much as people joke it shows he still isn’t backing down, not good.
But, interestingly, still no declaration of war
https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1572480201401012224?t=JkgtxwG7SY7EveYbZm-eJg&s=19
Not sure what that really means on the ground if Ukraine has 700k+ in Uniform.
I wonder how popular this move is in Russia. The propogandists have been doing an excellent job of whipping everyone up into a righteous fury, but it's very different when they come for your loved ones and send them to the front line.
Presumably these will be used to displace regulars in other theatres. He's a mad old bastard eh?
Im going to take another wild uneducated guess the plan is to defend what theyve currently got.
The Today interview with Markov just now was frankly unhinged.
Paul Rogers (Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford and Global Security Consultant with Oxford Research Group) on Owen Jones is worth a watch, I think he’s been to TyskySour recently too. He gives a nicely measured opinion on what’s likely to happen over the coming months, don’t forget winter’s on it way which too.
Yep, he has declared a ‘partial’ (read full) mobisation of the Russian army
300,000 is nowhere near full mobilisation?
Based on usual Russian inflation of numbers of they get half that I'll be surprised
Considering that everyone who wants to fight for Russia has already had ample time to join up, means any that get called up will be less than enthusiastic
I think this is more significant, anyone joining now will be signing up to fight indefinitely
several 1000s of Russian troops who thought they were going home this autumn now have a winter of freezing, starving and getting blown up to look forward to
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1572474655872630785?t=RWVmlins01oiGatApcjt_A&s=19
Did Putin change the time of his announcement to this morning so that the reservists that have now been mobilised didn't have time to flee during the night?!?
I think this is more significant, anyone joining now will be signing up to fight indefinitely
Yes, I saw that. The goal posts have been moved by quite some distance there!!
300,000 is nowhere near full mobilisation?
Give it time
With 150k Mosin Nagants…
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they turned up with some Khyber Pass replicas of old Lee Enfields.
This article on how civilians/irregulars turned the tide in the Battle of Kyiv is a great read.
With 150k Mosin Nagants…
One per pair, with the other person holding ammunition and ready to take the rifle if/when the person holding it gets shot.
Apparently Russia have ordered ammo & equipment from North Korea & Iran
interestingly, still no declaration of war
A declaration of war doesn't have any real international significance now, as the UN Charter bans attacking another nation. Only defence is allowed, and too obvious to need declaring. Some states require it in their own political processes to authorise military action.
By holding 'votes' and annexing the areas, Putin will claim to be defending Russia and thus get round the UN Charter.
So Russia has only had 5k deaths of its troops that where on the border according to Russian defense command!! so that's 95k troops left of the original number that massed on the border so why the need for 300k more.
How the Russian public buy this crap is beyond me it's almost Stasi levels of control by fear and intimidation.
I can see Serbia getting full of middle class Russian young men in the next coming weeks as Russian familys bribe/smuggle there sons out of the country.
They won't be going to north Korean that's for sure.
This makes sense to me. Annex occupied territories and declare them Russian, state that they will defend Russia by any means necessary (i.e. nuclear) and hope that the West pressures Ukraine to just let Russia keep what it has taken so far.
Results are in on the referendums 95% in favor 150% turn out.
Even Blackadder is impressed.
Sadly I can see that being about right.
Off topic but Richard herrings podcast with Reese Shearsmith that has just been released they where chatting about a play where Reese played Putin in a small part MI5 turned up to the rehearsals and told them to assume they where being phone tapped and only use secure forms of communication. That's cold war paranoid
A declaration of war doesn’t have any real international significance now...
It does internally. President Putin has taken a significant political risk declaring martial law and mobilisation of veterans
A declaration of war is full mobilisation. The majority of Russians have learnt not to be in any way political; take their children and that will change
It does internally. President Putin has taken a significant political risk declaring martial law and mobilisation of veterans
A declaration of war is full mobilisation. The majority of Russians have learnt not to be in any way political; take their children and that will change
Yet he hasn't called for a full mobilisation, despite his speech saying that Russia itself was basically under threat.
Is this because he is now worried of the reaction of the Russian people? Surely this set of announcements changes so much for Russians - from a 'small' military operation to mobilisation, indefinite slavery for those in the military and a growing impact of both sanctions and military personnel not returning / returning with horrific tales...
I would be interested to know what the reaction among 'normal' Russians is today to all this.
My post above should have included this Twitter post.
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1572244815441543172
It is literally his last reasonable play - hoping that declaring Luhansk, Donbas and Crimea part of Russia and setting a 'red line' will dis-unify the West and stem the flow of arms/equipment.
I don't believe the West can back down now.
Putin must be defeated.
Every time he is allowed to get away with stuff, all we do is kick the can further down the road.
They should send as much advanced weapon systems and train as many Ukrainian troops as possible.
Churchill had a point, when he said that we may as well fight Russia/USSR in 1945, as we were going have to fight them at some point in the future.
It is literally his last reasonable play – hoping that declaring Luhansk, Donbas and Crimea part of Russia and setting a ‘red line’ will dis-unify the West and stem the flow of arms/equipment.
I think these messages are for his internal audience and setting out that it's the wests fault they're losing ground and the west will crumble etc to garner support for his madness/mobilising.
The west will take no notice and carry on. The nuclear threats have been made before. And if anything he's managed to unite the west and strengthen NATO.
I think these messages are for his internal audience and setting out that it’s the wests fault they’re losing ground and the west will crumble etc to garner support for his madness.
They always supported his madness, but be interesting to see what Ghirkin etc make of this announcement, I suspect it will be along the lines of 'too little, too late'
So ultimately this move will fail on the military & propoganda front
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1572530228437864449?t=lZyw5zphccCPvkMDjMNnOQ&s=19
Also filghts selling out from major airports in Russia
From the Guardian live feed:
Nearly all flights out of Russia were sold out just hours after Vladimir Putin declared a partial mobilisation of reservists.
Google Trends data showed a spike in searches for Aviasales, Russia’s most popular website for buying flights, after Putin’s announcement sparked fears that some men of fighting age would not be allowed to leave the country.
Flights from Moscow to the capitals of Georgia, Turkey and Armenia, all destinations that allow Russians to enter without a visa, were sold out within minutes of Putin’s announcement, according to Aviasales data.
Within hours, direct flights from Moscow to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan had also stopped showing up on the website. Some routes with stopovers, including from Moscow to Tbilisi, were also unavailable.
The cheapest flights from Moscow to Dubai were costing more than 300,000 roubles (£4,320) – about five times the average monthly wage.
Putin has been threatening the use of nuclear weapons since the start of the war. Is his apparent annexation/nukes to defend new Russian territory plan a ratcheting up of that threat or something more? If it's actually a serious intention then while he may claim he used nuclear weapons defensively it's not like it's going to be accepted internationally (unless he has somehow been doing some secret and very skilful diplomacy/bribing and has a raft of countries ready to recognise annexed territory as part of Russia).
Also Russia has already annexed Crimea, Crimea has been subject to attacks and those haven't triggered a nuclear response so it seems a bit odd to make that a threat for newly annexed territories and not there.
Ukrainian Pravda report that Russian opposition is calling for protests https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/21/7368427/
They also report that para 7 of the partial mobilisation decree is redacted, which relates to the numbers to be mobilised. Hmmmm
So in order to fix the morale and recruitment problems of the military, he's confirmed that once you're in, you may never be allowed to leave, and if you've left you may suddenly be dragged back in. That'll help.
Wasn't Putin, only last week dredging new recruits out of prison to go fight? Why would he be doing this if he had any serious numbers of trained, skilled and equipped army personnel ready to go at a moments notice?
It's all bluff and bluster.
On an unrelated note, are there any oil wells close to the Ukraine border that Ukraine could 'liberate' and be allowed to operate/sell on the open market as part of compensation from Russia?
If Putin had half a brain, he would use the referenda as a way to step back. Actually announce that the Oblasts do not want to be Russian, and withdraw his troops. AFAICS that is the only possible exit strategy for him.
I really can't see why Trump isn't all over this. He could persuade his mate to pull back. Trump will get reelected and Putin will have his poodle back.
Only a slightly better scenario than nuclear Armageddon.
This looks like it might be worth getting behind! I've been following John Sweeney since the war began. His 'VPDO'* catchphrase is becoming a virtual festival of Ukrainian music, comedy, arts etc to coincide with Putin's 70th birthday, to rip the piss mercilessly and to raise money for Ukrainian charities.
*Vladimir Putin, do f*** off!
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1572571305635123202?s=20&t=3mLfrsUdaFR-X5eJSwAx_A
https://twitter.com/lizaclinwizard/status/1572578592810467335?s=20&t=3mLfrsUdaFR-X5eJSwAx_A
Professional soldier thinks that amateur soldiers will probably suck.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571713480822787
I know it all fits in with the putin narrative but did anyone hear that ‘ interview’ this morning on R4 I think it was former Russian defence minister it was properly scary, threats of MAD (and it will be the wests fault )he was having a proper rant ..R4 presenter completely outgunned this won’t end well will it?
I really can’t see why Trump isn’t all over this. He could persuade his mate to pull back. Trump will get reelected and Putin will have his poodle back.
Only a slightly better scenario than nuclear Armageddon.
Because he's a non entity on the world stage.
He's pretty much a non entity in the US.
He’s pretty much a non entity in the US
I wish this was true but unfortunately he is still very popular and very has the Republican Party in his back pocket
the videos of people being pulled off the streets to be conscripted in Russia are really quite frightening. i can understand why people are doing everything they can to leave.
I wish this was true but unfortunately he is still very popular and very has the Republican Party in his back pocket
Is he really though? The likes of fox news will certainly sell that story, and drum up that imagery.. But I suspect he's not that popular.
