An interesting discussion on the effect of sanctions
TLDR / Russia is up the creek without a paddle
Anyone getting a bit twitchy about the nuclear power plant?
Lots of warning from internal voices
Reading that excerpt that you posted jivehoney, it reminds me of a documentary I watched called "Life and Debt", about how the world bank treated Jamaica in the 70's/ 80's.
They made them rationalise their economy by slaughtering all of their dairy herds and forced them to import powdered milk from the United States, (ironically, said powdered milk was heavily subsidised by the US government.)
It's not 'The World Bank', it's the First World Bank, who'se logo should be a vampire squid sucking on the face of humanity.
Huh, thats an actual thing
Antonovka bridge attacked again, apparently taking out Russian repair vehicles/equipment. Also the road across the dam has been cut, though this is a short span over the river lock, and probably an easy repair. But just as easily cut again. Pontoon ferry access only for the time being.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1557005280017260547
There is speculation that Ukraine used anti-radar missiles for this attack. Would explain the long range.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865
Blimey, imagine if a weapon like that got into the wrong hands!
https://twitter.com/bungarsargon/status/1556711831552630785
Ooh wonder if the US has finally supplied ATACMS for the HIMARS, would make sense if they had that they'd stipulate they only be used to hit Russian bases in the Crimea for now. I think next escalation (e.g. if the Russians **** about/threaten more stuff with the nuclear plant) is the US will permit Ukraine to strike the Crimean bridge - although that would probably risk further escalation by Russia...
Edit: Ah just read the HARM missile follow-up, I guess that makes sense to - maybe the US deem ATACMS too much of an escalation for now
There is speculation that Ukraine used anti-radar missiles for this attack. Would explain the long range.
Not in itself.
What may have happened is an airstrike taking advantage of Russian defences either running out of radars or the crews deciding sod this for a game of soldiers and forgetting how to use the on switch after a few days of being on the wrong side of harm missiles but in themselves the range isnt exceptional.
They also wouldnt tend to create huge explosions/smoke clouds unless the radars are positioned with extreme stupidity.
As I understand it, the anti-radar missiles can be launched in a GPS guided mode. I think that means they can be used as an regular air-surface missile instead of being limited to attacking radar sites.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751752061411329
I think that means they can be used as an regular air-surface missile instead of being limited to attacking radar sites.
They have other weapons which can be used for that though with similar or better range and hitting power. I cant imagine that many have been sent over so wouldnt have thought they would use them on anything other than radar suppression. After all if you get that right then you can use everything else at whim.
Emptying out the holiday beaches & dachas of Crimea will have an effect in Russia
Russia moved it's naval assets from that part of Crimea a while ago, tougher to move airfields
Also worth pointing out that this is another own goal for Putin
NATO/USA had refused for years to sell Ukraine long range missiles, until now.
Emptying out the holiday beaches & dachas of Crimea will have an effect in Russia
There was a story a couple of months back suggesting a whole bunch of houses had appeared on the market.
With regards to the attack Russia are apparently implying it was an accident*. I am really not sure how that is supposed to help their cause "it wasnt the enemy. We can kill ourselves without needing their help"?
*They talk about a detonation of supplies suggesting an accident whilst skipping over the finer detail of what caused the detonation.
*They talk about a detonation of supplies suggesting an accident whilst skipping over the finer detail of what caused the detonation.
I heard it was a box of ammunition stopping a Ukrainian missile from damaging the hallowed Crimean territory.
A few big claims on Twitter about the 'number' of lost aircraft in that event
Satellite imagery 4hrs before the attack shows 37 jets and 6 helicopters at the base according to this video;
Impossible to say how may aircraft were destroyed though.
I had missed the stuff about air defences being destroyed on Friday, where were they located
I see that a weapons depot almost in Crimea was hit earlier too
Hopefully will disrupt Russian response to Ukrainian efforts to retake Kherson
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1556893167013748736?t=PQYtEmNNACeF6Lh1OMzeig&s=19
Air base got hit too today Russia blaming it on a fire when refueling.
Impossible to say how may aircraft were destroyed though.
Those fireballs were not small!
I'm not sure how many would escape damage of some sort, also appears to be barracks & hangers between fuel depot & ammo storage
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1557042262865059841?t=qTIi0Nyya7TIGX9raFSyBw&s=19
All these random accidents and deliberate defence sacrifices. It's all a bit:
^ that there airbase is quite the double badaboom explosion, with more over time. 🤔
Meanwhile reading other things, it seems Russia's advances are of the order of 2km in 2 weeks of fighting, one area where they've managed 10km. All while pouring more artillery and machines, but also reports of all the contract soldiers are quitting the moment they are rotated out for a rest.
It’s alright, Russia has increased the limit on volunteering for the army, now 65 🤣
I still find it astonishing that most of Russias 'tech' seems to be powered by all sorts of electronics by Sony etc. (even if Sony didn't know). All this time, and working with China in some shape or form and they can't produce their own (or at least order it sans globally well known branding). What did they think was going to happen when those parts dried up after the inevitable sanctions?
Conversely, next time the boffins in the US ask for billions of dollars for the next high tech stealth hypersonic thingymagig would the money makers say 'hold on, Russia stuff is running off washing machines, do we really need to spend this money as all the stuff we have now will wipe the floor with them'? Suppose China is now the 'enemy' for that request...
I wouldn't be surprised if almost all those aircraft are done for
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1557080772867198977?t=NHReiw5WdFdXXYg7ah9TQw&s=19
The location of this vid circled in red
And nearby buildings were damaged too
https://twitter.com/NatalieSmal/status/1557084413686595586?t=SUs2Ea5V_UxBdxIpkYv8FA&s=19
More vids
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1557099306800365568?t=5kUi-pfocXidHYS0MgmDFA&s=19
Several more airbases on the Crimea to target!
As well as forcing Russia to abandon Crimea as the site of naval and airbases, I suspect the realization among wealthy Russians that they really are losing may be hugely important. It's no longer just a "special operation" limited to border areas, it's a war that Russia is losing.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1557090261800554499
Very important announcement - this means that Russia can't put any major military bases in Ukraine and has to expect the Kerch Strait Bridge might be destroyed at any time. This will make their logistics in the south much more difficult.
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1557027629298880513
Air base got hit too today Russia blaming it on a fire when refueling
I think that we can rule that out. Simultaneous explosions a (short) distance apart
Mykhailo Podolyak an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's office credited it to sabotage within Crimea saying, "Of course not. What do we have to do with this?"
There is also speculation on Twitter about which missiles could have been used
It's clear that it's Ukrainian-inspired. The realisation that they are in range and the thought of forces friendly to Ukraine running around in Crimean backyards is frightening for the population.
It's good tactical value because the Russians can't concentrate their forces towards the fronline, or rig a barge full of radar reflectors.
It's also wiped out a pile of aircraft just as UKR seems to be building for an offensive
Just as a reminder
In the event of an attack on Crimea, Medvedev was quoted by TASS news agency as saying, "Judgment Day will come very fast and hard. It will be very difficult to hide."
I know its primarily the domestic audience. But, its hard to hide and cover up locally, and the response of, "oh Sergei dropped his fag on a bomb" will be increasingly difficult to pull off.
This is going to be an extreme long shot, but ill try anyway.
Does anyone have a link to analysis on post WW2 UK public opinion on Imperialism/Colonialism? Perhaps would be best around the time of Suez?
The reason that line of enquiry has been triggered is I read something yesterday, claiming to be sourced from someone with a Baltic country intelligence service. This piece was talking long term about the threats posed by Russia and how the removal of Putin wouldnt really help. This is on account of the sentiment in Russia of Imperialist ideologies/borderline fascism.
That in turn made me think of individuals, such as the (linked to an age ago) Russian leaders of neo nazi groups wearing "Russia Ultimate Power" t shirts.
Whuch in turn again made me think of what happened to public opinion during the post war decline of British territorial imperialism/colonialism.
Its surely a topic that been studied, but i definitely dont have time to read a weighty book on the matter.
Maybe look a bit wider than UK. France was going through a similar process following WW2 and the Suez canal was a joint Anglo-French company (after Egypt sold their share to Britain)
Spain's colonies fell apart a bit earlier leading to the Spanish Civil War in 1936
Does anyone have a link to analysis on post WW2 UK public opinion on Imperialism/Colonialism?
Daniel Todman's 2 volumes covering the war are very accessible and the second volume covers the immediate post war period (up to 1947)
Yeh will try that, Ive found stuff from a little earlier, but not so much from a time when India was already free, and the defining impact of Suez felt.
Edit, i guess the parallel Im trying to draw (badly) is;
Loss of India compared to the fall of the Soviet Union and dominion over Eastern Europe.
Suez, and the current war in Ukraine.
Theres the documented rise of the far right (NF etc) at a later time, but that seems more about flat out racism than feelings towards Imperialism.
More video from the airfield, note the steel beam penetrating right through the car!
More video from the airfield, note the steel beam penetrating right through the car
The size of that steel beam!!
More video from the airfield, note the steel beam penetrating right through the car!
Yes, it's a miracle that only one person was killed in the explosions.
How did that beam get through the car like that without causing more damage?
Not a great deal I disagree with in this, dumbed down to about my level too.
Are the Russians still saying only one fatality?
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1557103194311991297
Seems like the Russians have been careless with cigarettes again.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1557373388867477509
How did that beam get through the car like that without causing more damage
Miracle beam, note the car park is 500m from the airfield 😵💫
