I hope so, it seems to be a war of attrition, and I’m struggling to see how russia can maintain momentum in the meduim term, never mind long term.
It can't as long as the West keeps backing the Ukraine. Its basic economics. Before the invasion Russia had an economy only slightly larger than Italy with a defense budget about the same as the UK. If the war stays conventional its the West's military
industrial complex vs the Russians. Its a battle of economies. Just like in the second world war when Germany failed to take Stalingrad and the USA had entered the war most economists knew Germany was toast
Some may argue that the Soviets successful counterattack was a significant contributing factor on the US entering the war. 90% of the German army was on the eastern front.
. If the war stays conventional its the West’s military
industrial complex vs the Russians. Its a battle of economies.
Plus it seems a huge stockpile of Russian bullets, bombs and artillery shells. What they are increasingly lacking is the machine or tactic to deliver or fire said bullet, bomb or shell it seems.
Although it seems the tactic they are now using is to retaliate at any civilian area they can...
I've also read reports that increasingly they cannot get food to the troops, who are now turning to eating whatever they can stolen from locals, including pet animals.
Do we think that there is a growing chance of a rout, possibly even a Russian withdrawal, in the next few weeks? Likely overly optimistic I know...
Its a battle of economies. Just like in the second world war...
To take your point and shift the focus, this will continue with a Ukrainian Recovery Plan after the war finishes, similar to the WW2 European Recovery Programme
The Russian economy is disappearing, oil revenues had been sliding before the invasion, and now the European economy will continue to take a hammering rebuilding the Ukraine
The Chinese Communist Party has been watching from the sidelines and will take the opportunity to increase its influence in Europe by helping Ukraine recover. It really is multi-faceted https://www.mi5.gov.uk/news/speech-by-mi5-and-fbi
^ Russia also has other countries it either "assists" or keeps in line through projecting power and authority. See Belarus, Georgia, South Ossetia, or some of the 'stans.
I wonder with a decimated military and no funds for Russia, if we will see political changes and unrest in these areas on the near future?
Some may argue that the Soviets successful counterattack was a significant contributing factor on the US entering the war.
Roosevelt was involving the U.S. as much as he could but the U.S. public opinion didn't support joining combat. The attack on Pearl Harbor changed that. Russia had nothing to do with it.
Do we think that there is a growing chance of a rout, possibly even a Russian withdrawal, in the next few weeks? Likely overly optimistic I know…
I saw a report the other day that Russian regular army units had a fight with conscripted units that didn't want to fight. My guess is that the Russian troops are forbidden to retreat and will be fired upon by their own side if they try to.
In WW2, As many Russians died at the hands of the NKVD as did British civilians and soldiers combined..nearly half a million in each case.
I hope so, it seems to be a war of attrition, and I’m struggling to see how russia can maintain momentum in the meduim term, never mind long term.
And yet, they are advancing every day. I can’t help thinking that there’s a lol of wishful thinking going on. Not long ago the armchair experts were telling us how after retaking Kharkiv the Ukr would be able to encircle Russian troops in the east. That hasn’t gone too well.
And yet, they are advancing every day.
They are making very small tactical gains at terrible cost. They are unable to make any sort of breakthrough so they are limited to just flattening everything with artillery and creeping forward. Their strategic position is getting steadily worse. Ukraine is destroying their logistics and they are unable to enlist, train, and equip enough fresh soldiers to replace their losses. They have lost a large proportion of their modern tanks and other equipment and are now having to dig 60 year old gear out of storage. That doesn't mean that Ukraine is in a position to retake the eastern and southern regions, but it does mean that the Russian army is struggling badly.
And yet, they are advancing every day.
They're having to throw a huge amount of resources into a battle of attrition that takes them longer each time to achieve any gains, meanwhile the Ukrainians, knowing that they can't win against those sorts of tactics have withdrawn in good order and are using longer range weaponry to target Russian logistics behind their own lines. The Russians still haven't achieved air superiority and look like they've given up trying, which is a remarkable admission of failure of the RuAF
For an army that expected to roll over the entire country in 3 days, it's going remarkably badly if they're having to dig out ancient tanks and recruit 60yr olds
Ultimately, this is a wait and see moment in the conflict. Both sides are on an operation pause. When it starts back up again in earnest it should tell us a lot. I think the next month will be crucial to determining the course of the war. Hopefully the Ukrainians are able to start counterattacking.
Both sides are on an operation pause.
The Russians are, possibly because they haven't been able to supply their front line with ammo and food. The Ukrainians haven't paused, they are steadily blowing up Russian ammo dumps and logistics depots.
But the Ukrainians do need a break too, they aren't invincible.
An operational pause doesn't mean all activity stops.
Some good news on the grain, a potential agreement could be reached today
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62159804
They are making very small tactical gains at terrible cost. They are unable to make any sort of breakthrough so they are limited to just flattening everything with artillery and creeping forward.
True but this is what the Russians do, ref Idlib. The cost in lives is not a big issue as Putin doesn’t have to concern himself with public opinion. I’d be as happy as anyone if the Russians slunk off home with their tails between their legs, but that doesn’t look like happening anytime soon.
It’s not a cheap shot, just an observation. Not intended to be offensive.
Jeezo, if that wasn't a cheap shot trying to offend you must really go for it when you do.
yeah, if i was trying to offend, you'd know about it. 😆
Here’s something to look forward to:
TL:dR DOOM DOOM DOOM Wait it's fine we can just pull magic solar panels and wind turbines from our collective arseholes.
🤔
Some may argue that the Soviets successful counterattack was a significant contributing factor on the US entering the war. 90% of the German army was on the eastern front
They'd be wrong. US declared war on the Japanese. Germans declared war on the US. That's not to say that the US wouldn't have got involved anyway, bit you know..
That's quite a scary article re Oil and Gas. Guess we'll find out, but I'd like to think that we're mitigating the risk a bit more than is being suggested
Can’t imagine why he hasn’t turned the gas off already.
Money?
Can’t imagine why he hasn’t turned the gas off already.
He's turned the Nord Stream 1 pipeline off https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-1-gas-flows-dwindle-maintenance-begins-2022-07-11/
It's scheduled annual maintenance and will see Germany's stored gas dwindle too. He'd already cut the pipeline to 40% because a turbine that was in Canada for maintenance was being held under sanctions
The turbine is being exempted from sanctions and Zelenskyy was furious because it's given Russia a revenue stream
Nord Stream 2 had its certification suspended on Russia's invasion
TL:dR DOOM DOOM DOOM Wait it’s fine we can just pull magic solar panels and wind turbines from our collective arseholes.
Christ. It’s like the Daily Mail letters page in here sometimes.
Even with the surge in demand and inflation, integrated solar PV is now cheaper per square metre than slate or clay tiles. Enormous battery storage is coming online across Europe at an unprecedented rate. Almost every new solar installation includes battery storage.
In extremis home batteries can provide power to the grid. They rarely do at the moment because the export tariff is crap, but that can be easily fixed.
In fact, probably scrapping all the existing feed-in tariffs and redistributing the money more fairly would be a worthwhile thing (early adopters being paid 60p / kWh, which is outrageous).
Putin has a short-term grip on Europe’s pubic hairs but he’s actually driving demand away from Russian gas and oil more than ever. It’s ironic that it’s taking a war 1500 miles away to shift us off fossil fuels instead of the idea of simultaneously drowning and burning to death, but whatever works.
Ukrainian MOD claiming to have liberated 44 locations in the Kherson region over the last 48hrs. Impossible to verify at the moment due to a news blackout in the area. So treat with caution!
No mention of this on the ISW website, so may be fake news!!!
Enormous battery storage is coming online across Europe at an unprecedented rate. Almost every new solar installation includes battery storage.
No batteries are enormous in the scale needed for actual storage. Short term balancing yes, but noting like enough for grid size delivery. A quick google shows the largest in the world at the moment is 409MW.The gas fired power station I'm sat in right now can do that in 20 minutes.
From here I can also see the largest solar farm in the UK. It covers an area significantly larger than the power production areas at the station, it'll do 5% of the output, as long as its not cloudy, dark, panels are covered in dust etc.
Renewables just won't cut it without gas/coal back-up yet. It's a shame, but that's where we are .
If the Russians do turn off the gas, Germany in particular is ****ed this winter, because they won't be able to fill their massive gas storage caverns. If they could, they'd be short but could probably struggle through with emergency measures.
Ukrainian MOD claiming to have liberated 44 locations
Thats a bit if a wooly description, could mean almost anything from a town to an outhouse.
Speaking of wool.
if the Russians do turn off the gas
Well, thats me learning to knit wooly jumpers this year.
More seriously*, ive seen a few posts around where people have claimed Russia have simply made up for lost sales to the west elsewhere, but ive never actually seen that followed up with evidence. Does anyone have access to some credible numbers that can be verified? And I mean in terms of volumes, not value.
*Its actually not that unrealistic, we have several sheep fleeces in the house at some processing point or another between fresh of the sheep to an actual jumper.
Dog bloody loves it!
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Sorry, back OT now
In fact, probably scrapping all the existing feed-in tariffs and redistributing the money more fairly would be a worthwhile thing (early adopters being paid 60p / kWh, which is outrageous).
I have an early FIT (not quite that good) so I heartily disagree :-). But it is crazy that so little incentive is given to installing solar, insulation etc. Also crazy that the cost to consumers is fixed by the gas price, even if they are using renewables. There is no incentive to switch to a renewables supplier (eg Good Energy) as you pay more in good times and bad.
There is no incentive to switch to a renewables supplier (eg Good Energy) as you pay more in good times and bad.
I'm with Good Energy. Didn't mind paying a bit more, but I didn't know until the last 12 months or so that they're also not bound by the price cap <cries in do-gooder>
As an aside, it's interesting seeing commentators and "news" outlets that have always been anti-renewable now screeching about our dependence on Russia. Like, imagine if we'd actually acted on all of the warnings, and then climate change turned out NOT to be true and all we gained was lower pollution, stronger industry at home, and an escape from our reliance on dubious foreign countries?
Can’t imagine why he hasn’t turned the gas off already.
One of the reasons the USSR was eventually unsustainable was that the price of oil collapsed and it couldn't earn enough money to keep itself going. Given that one of Putin's aims is to restore Russia to something approaching the former "glory" days, it would seem perverse that he'd willing choke off his only real supply of money into his economy
It seems that the long range strikes are also aiming at leadership, not just ammunition.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1547744209171402753?t=3syxUPCS_IUKRV1iVHRzVQ&s=19
It seems that the long range strikes are also aiming at leadership, not just ammunition.
They've been targeting supply depots, command posts, and air defense sites.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547914533787709440
One of the reasons the USSR was eventually unsustainable was that the price of oil collapsed and it couldn’t earn enough money to keep itself going.
Sidetrack but - why did they need currency? Why wasn't such a big country self-sufficient?
Why wasn’t such a big country self-sufficient?
Because no country has access to supplies of everything it needs wants internally I would assume.
Sidetrack but – why did they need currency? Why wasn’t such a big country self-sufficient?
They were reliant on Western technology. Their factories, energy sector, etc. needed Western technology. On top of that, factories had to produce military gear at below-cost so they had to try to cook the books on civilian production. Their economy was a disaster.
Because no country has access to supplies of everything it needs wants internally I would assume.
Huge countries probably do, don't they? I mean USSR + Warsaw pact must have all the raw materials. But being dependent on Western IP is an interesting one.
This is quite a good summary of that-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Soviet_Union#1970%E2%80%931990
TLDR - bad management, corruption and a 10 year war in Afghanistan
Snake
Interesting that the Ukrainian minister for defence is expecting to get the 300km HIMARS.
Interesting that the Ukrainian minister for defence is expecting to get the 300km HIMARS.
I know, right?
The first casualty of war is the truth and all that. Who know's what is actually being delivered!
The M270 MLRS have arrived in Ukraine = more pain for Russia
Easy to say it on.tje summer
But Germans still supporting Ukraine
https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1547842955116892160?t=yqAvBrbr4Ock8P3_qoziHA&s=09
An aid worker with health issues died in prison, supposedly having been tortured. Our government may be hampered in negotiating political exchanges due to not accepting the validity of the breakaways in the Ukraine.
We have other captured citizens to protect from illegal detention/death.
There are some times when I sound right wing, and this is one of them. Figure out where they are and send in a rescue party, large enough to eradicate anything or anyone carrying a weapon in line of sight. Raze the buildings they were kept in to the ground.
Obviously without killing civilians. We're not nazis.
This might be entirely possible. No doubt a couple of helicopters full of SAS could get in, grab them and get out again.
But what if they couldn't?
It's one thing giving Ukraine weapons, it's another having British troops directly fighting Russian ones, possibly an entire platoon being captured on what Russia see as Russian soil.
Could Ukrainian SF rescue them? Maybe. Is rescuing one or two foreign captives a good use of their time during an invasion of their country? Probably not, they will already be engaged elsewhere. And maybe having Western captives held by Russia helps keep public opinion in the west on side?
.
Sounds harsh, and I would probably say different things if it was my son there, but a rescue really isn't on the cards. Prisoner swap maybe, but not a rescue.
