I don't buy it that this war is part of a long-term plan to transition the Russian economy to the Chinese model (whatever that actually is). I do buy it that the invasion of Ukraine is the consequence of two things; firstly that Russia (Putin) realised some time ago that they'd never be able to compete as a regional (let alone global) power with the EU, US and/or China on economic or soft power terms and b) that Putin as a populist dictator in all but name, would need to be able to create an enemy and show a victory to bolster his position domestically.
The solution? Invade Ukraibe, topple government, install client puppet regime, get Donbas and land bridge to Crimea. Job done.
Part of this was preparing the ground through using puppets, muppets and suppets to sow dissent and disruption in the likes of the EU, NATO and the US, to deter any desire and/or ability to react.
History will show that he massively miscalculated and has created a situation that is delivering pretty much the direct opposite of what he intended.
In terms of Russia progressing out of this mess, the best option I can see (if we're taking a long-term, realpolitik view) is for his defeat to be so total that it destroys him and his regime, neutralises any potential Russian threat for generations and forces them to realise that they need to fundamentally shift from their authoritarian roots to have a hope in the future.
Whilst I'm not saying that the achievement of the above is the driving strategy of either Ukraine or NATO, it has got to be a factor. After all, if I was a Ukrainian, I wouldn't just want to get the Russians off my territory, I'd want to do it in a way that ensured any future threat was effectively null and void
Sorry - didn't notice the page change - discussion has moved ahead.
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I've always thought that the current galloping economic growth was the result of reforms put in place by Deng Xioaping, who I've always considered to be a bit if a genius who genuinely believed in improving his country first and his own personal gains second. This new guy, however, seems much more concerned with keeping himself in power, and is happy warp his country to make sure it stays that way- even if it means sacrificing some growth to do it
Doesnt that kind of depend if they start something unilaterally and drag others in …
…again
Who? The Russians or the North Koreans?
I actually suspect Putin has moved toward a planned economy fully in the Chinese model and that’s the true motivation for this war.I think he sees that they’ll probably overtake the US in 20 years time in terms of GDPPC and decided that some of that growth will be good for Russia.
I'll see if I can find the source where I read it. But the article claimed that, along with demographics, one of the major challenges facing Russia is a severely (almost catastrophically) degraded education system.
Both of which are needed if Russia is to see that sort of growth.
Sorry Funk, I thought twice and exited stage left on that particular tangent
funkrodent
Full Member
I don’t buy it that this war is part of a long-term plan to transition the Russian economy to the Chinese model
tbf it's not an idea I'm wedded to just something I suspect and wonder about. I just don't see that with Russia invading in a country in Europe, they wouldn't have guessed that it would result in a new cold war and a separation of Russia from Europe would happen. It was kinda obvious. One of the first things loads of us said almost instinctively when this started, was well that's Russia heading towards becoming a Chinese vassal state.
I just don’t see that with Russia invading in a country in Europe, they wouldn’t have guess that it would result in a new cold war and a separation of Russia from Europe would happen
Putin made a huge miscalculation. He assumed the West was weak and divided, the Trump administration contributed to that, so he didn't think we would actually do anything. On top of that, his intelligence services have been telling what he wants to hear so he believed that Ukrainians would be happy to be reunited with Russia. He didn't think he would actually have to invade, he thought the Ukrainian leaders would flee and Russian proxies could just take over. Then, when he did have to invade, he thought the Ukrainian government would just collapse and his troops would be doing a victory parade in a couple of days. He really did not think that Ukraine would resist or that the West would do anything beyond send some sternly worded diplomatic messages.
Putin did invade Ukraine the day after the Olympics...
Practically the last person Putin spoke to before the invasion was Xi Jinping. China knew what he was doing and I'm sure hedged their bets accordingly. Without China's backing Putin would not have invaded.
thols2
Free Member
I just don’t see that with Russia invading in a country in Europe, they wouldn’t have guess that it would result in a new cold war and a separation of Russia from Europe would happenPutin made a huge miscalculation. He assumed the West was weak and divided, the Trump administration contributed to that, so he didn’t think we would actually do anything. On top of that, his intelligence services have been telling what he wants to hear so he believed that Ukrainians would be happy to be reunited with Russia. He didn’t think he would actually have to invade, he thought the Ukrainian leaders would flee and Russian proxies could just take over. Then, when he did have to invade, he thought the Ukrainian government would just collapse and his troops would be doing a victory parade in a couple of days. He really did not think that Ukraine would resist or that the West would do anything beyond send some sternly worded diplomatic messages.
I believe he went for the quick win, was that the only scenario he projected? i doubt that.
Even if he did manage a quick take over of Ukraine. It would still have resulted in a wall going up as trust in Russia would have collapsed. So i don't really find that argument persuasive.
Even if he did manage a quick take over of Ukraine. It would still have resulted in a wall going up as trust in Russia would have collapsed.
It didn't when he took over significant parts of Ukraine in 2014. If Zelensky's government had folded up like a cheap suit, then I doubt we would have seen the same unified approach.
martinhutch
Free MemberIt didn’t when he took over significant parts of Ukraine in 2014.
2014 wasn't a russia takeover of Ukraine though, it was a take over of Crimea, which may or may not be legitimate, i doubt we'll ever know the true feeling around that time. And imo was 2 coups, with the coup in the East, we'll never know the true extent of feeling in there either.
So enough ambiguity there. Straight up aiming for decapitating the Government, and a general invasion wasn't ambiguous.
It didn’t when he took over significant parts of Ukraine in 2014. If Zelensky’s government had folded up like a cheap suit, then I doubt we would have seen the same unified approach.
Exactly. The idea that Putin is a strategic genius has been shown to be utter nonsense. He's an opportunistic bully who had a lucky run. He assumed that NATO and the EU would just shrug and things would go on as before. He had no plan beyond the assumption that Ukraine would just capitulate and accept Russian dominance.
Who's claiming Putin is a strategic genius? I'm just suggesting he's not a complete idiot and may actually have thought about it.
Ideas that Putin had no plans and considered no alternatives is a bit silly sounding to me.
All I'm suggesting is that Putin is probably thinking in wider terms than just this war. I'm not suggesting genius, nor that his plans will work(i've no idea what they are, I'm just speculating), just that his thinking is probably wider than is suggested by the current war propaganda.
Ideas that Putin had no plans and considered no alternatives is a bit silly sounding to me.
His intelligence services were afraid of him and telling him what he wanted to hear. This is a problem that is almost inevitable in autocratic regimes. The leader rejects viewpoints that challenge him so he ends up in an echo chamber. Anybody who expressed any doubt about the plan would have been bullied into submission or fired. Go back and watch the video of Putin humiliating his advisers right at the start of the invasion. He was not going to accept anyone challenging his plan.
He was not going to accept anyone challenging his plan.
Yeah we can also go back and find a videos of Putin directly stating that plans change due to events.
I’m just suggesting he’s not a complete idiot and may actually have thought about it.
He may have done, and he probably based his assumptions on promises he'd been given about the performance of his military. Those promises have been shown to be all but nonsense, and yet still the fighting goes on, which suggests that either Putin isn't being told the extent to which his ability to wage offensive war is being degraded, or doesn't care. Both of which are somewhat troubling outcomes.
or doesn’t care.
Is the more accurate assessment I think. Well not just me, it's the analysis of the new British army guy too.
His intelligence services were afraid of him and telling him what he wanted to hear.
Its worth remembering that immediately prior and into the first couple of days very few people in the west were saying Ukraine would be able to stand up for long. The main perceived downside would be it would turn into an open sore of a guerrilla war rather than how it has turned out.
Why the stuff being shipped over initially was stuff which could either simply be lost or would be handy for insurgents rather than all the heavy artillery which has started to be shipped over now.
As for his position now. Its always bad for a dictator to appear weak so given a choice between pulling back and keep throwing forces in the latter does make some sense.
Blimey, it's a heck of a chalenge to accurately get into the head of Vlad the Invader.
However, I'm of the view that he must have had some sort of a plan B if plan A (lightning quick assault, chase out and/or kill leadership, welcomed by relieved Ukrainians etc etc) didn't work.
Plan B would probably have been to progress the war on two fronts, in the South (which went pretty much according to plan other than Mariupol) and in the assault on Kiev. In other words he would have been under the assumption that failing the blitzkrieg on Kiev, it would fall anyway within a few days, couple of weeks tops. Whether or not the Western powers would give meaningful support wouldn't have been a major concern because a) Kiev would have fallen before meaningful support could be provided and b) even that support would have been unlikely given the disunity and disruption that he'd been partially responsible for sowing.
In order to understand why he probably didn't have a plan C, we need to factor in a number of assumptions that he would probably have made, which proved to be incorrect (I know I'm caveating a fair bit here, but you know). In no particular order:
- The Ukrainian population (at least enough of them to count and particularly in Kiev) were sick of the corrupt Naxi regime and would welcome the Russians - It is fairly well known that his intelligence services fed him a pile of bull about this and may well have concocted non-existent fifth columns of armed and ready Ukrainians in order to cream off the money. Certainly in the famous pre invasion conference it was the Intelligence guy responsible for all this who was sweating and stumbling over hs words. He's since been arrested, whereabouts unknown
- The Ukrainian army would fold and not fight (see above), apart from a few diehards in the Donbas - wrong obviously
- The Russian army, hardened by battle in Syria would sweep all before it - Not being a military man, he wouldn't have known necessarily that the tactics were school boy, the kit very poor (and often non-existent) and the soldiers de-motivated and often concsripts or non-frontline bully boys
The point being that due to a combination of his own hubris, the ironical fact that the corruption and inefficiency endemic in his plutocratic regime hobbled the very army he expected to be triumphant and the fear and corruption in his own intelligence services he could easily have been in a position where plan C (what to do if the Ukrainians fight back convicingly and are increasingly armed by the West) wasn't something that he ever felt the need to give consideration to
However, I’m of the view that he must have had some sort of a plan B if plan A (lightning quick assault, chase out and/or kill leadership, welcomed by relieved Ukrainians etc etc) didn’t work.
He didn't. His advisors kept feeding him good news and telling him he was a genius. He never considered the possibility of failure and nobody would have been brave enough to raise it.
in the South (which went pretty much according to plan
Has it? i mean the Ukrainians for sure aren't winning per se, but to suggest that 1. the Russian have a plan, and the 2. things are preceding along it. is a big ask.
"Its worth remembering that immediately prior and into the first couple of days very few people in the west were saying Ukraine would be able to stand up for long."
It is indeed. Once Putin chose to roll the dice nobody knew what was going to happen, which is your point I believe.
Its worth remembering that immediately prior and into the first couple of days very few people in the west were saying Ukraine would be able to stand up for long.
The Russian military's incompetence was not widely predicted. On paper they had a formidable army. It's always better to overestimate your opponent than underestimate them. Given what was known about Russian equipment and troop numbers, it was fairly natural to assume that they would overwhelm the Ukrainian forces given that Ukraine is using pretty similar Russian equipment. As it turned out, the Russian military was rotten from head to tail. That seems obvious with hindsight but it would have been a mistake to assume that beforehand.
On top of that, the performance and motivation of the Ukrainian forces has exceeded expectations. Keep in mind that the U.S. spent nearly two decades training and equipping the Afghan military and they collapsed in a few months, so it wasn't obvious that the Ukrainian forces would probe to be so competent and motivated.
On paper they had a formidable army
They still do. They aren't increasing troops in the East from 40k to 300k for no reason.
Once Putin chose to roll the dice nobody knew what was going to happen, which is your point I believe.
Pretty much. There is a lot of hindsight being used currently.
The "smart" money was with him succeeding with plan a/b at least initially (personally I was confused as to what the long term goals would be since it didnt seem worth the predicted insurgency and possible sanctions after the "victory" was won).
Which then rolls into what his plans are now. I would guess they have worked through all the letters of the alphabet (plan a being a quick decapitation strike and tidy up, plan b being a couple of days of fighting) into needing numbers now for the next plan.
bruneep
Full Member
At some point you'd think Russia would start putting their ammo dumps a bit further back
Which then rolls into what his plans are now
Quite. It's hard to see it being anything other than 10 years of misery before finally withdrawing
They aren’t increasing troops in the East from 40k to 300k
for no reason.
FTFY. Russia doesn't have 300k troops to deploy. They've deployed pretty much everything they have. They're now trying to recruit 50 year-old men and digging 60 year-old tanks out of storage. Sure, there'll be Russian media stories about how they're just getting ready to unleash the real war but that's just copium.
I'm talking about NATO deploying 300k troops
That tells you that NATO assesses the Russians have the ability to over run Ukraine and attack NATO.
It's a deterrence against attacks against the Baltic NATO members who share borders with Russia. What we've seen from Ukraine is that Russia is completely dependent on railways for logistics and can't advance more than about 50 miles from railheads. They are incapable of invading Europe through Ukraine.
They aren't going to invade Europe anyhow. Putin's not entirely stupid. But if he was of a mind, the game would completely change, A few well placed tactical nukes would knock Ukraine out if a wider European war was on the cards. And that's before you consider full mobilisation and turning into a full on war economy.
A few well placed tactical nukes would [s]knock Ukraine out[/s] end it all if a wider [s]European[/s] world war was on the cards.
FTFY
Pretty much aye, agreed.
What we’ve seen from Ukraine is that Russia is completely dependent on railways for logistics and can’t advance more than about 50 miles from railheads. They are incapable of invading Europe through Ukraine.
They couldn't use railways beyond Ukraine with their standard kit because the Russian gauge is larger than the European
however the difference to the gauge in Finland is close enough (4mm)
Putin's pattern has been constant provocations and harassment of NATO countries rather than overt attacks. However, there is a lot of pressure from Russian media figures to be more confrontational with NATO. Losing to NATO would be face-saving for Putin compared to losing to Ukraine. It's prudent to keep a large garrison to deter nonsense like that.
Also, in order to invade Ukraine, Russia had to draw garrison troops from the far-east. Russia has long-running border and territorial disputes with China and Japan so it has traditionally kept large garrisons there. It needed to draw on those to assemble enough troops to invade Ukraine. Having a large NATO standing army in the Baltic region means that Russia will need to keep large numbers of troops and equipment as a garrison there instead of being able to send everything to Ukraine.
They aren’t going to invade Europe anyhow.
I thought they already had
I wonder how many times you two can keep circling back round to restating your opinions like some sort of endurance sport.
*post overlap
Seems like Russia is offering early release to a lot of prisoners in exchange for them going to fight in Ukraine, not sure that's going to help their unit discipline which is already breaking down.
shermer75
Free Member
They aren’t going to invade Europe anyhow.I thought they already had
Bit hard to invade Europe from Europe if we are getting pedantic.
Yeh, that was actually what i was going to post about.
Seems like Russia is offering early release to a lot of prisoners in exchange for them going to fight in Ukraine, not sure that’s going to help their unit discipline which is already breaking down.
Actually, nah.
I get the logic for massively increasing NATO troop counts, the Baltics were getting a bad deal. I agree with it. I'm just saying it probably tells us something different about potential russian capabilities than what the twitterati suggest.
