Does declaring general mobilisation mean anything beyond a statement? Does Putin have some additional forces in reserve or does it mean people can be conscripted into service?
Should we anticipate a mass exodus of eligible people?
Should we anticipate a mass exodus of eligible people?
I would assume that if they did announce a general mobilisation they wouldn't let anyone leave (just like Ukraine stopped men eligible to fight from leaving at the start of the war).
Does declaring general mobilisation mean anything beyond a statement? Does Putin have some additional forces in reserve or does it mean people can be conscripted into service?
Should we anticipate a mass exodus of eligible people?
Apparently, Russian conscripts can't legally be deployed abroad unless there's a declaration of war. They already have conscription but they can't acknowledge that conscripts are in combat in Ukraine.
Any family with education/money/political connections will be able to get their sons exempted from conscription. Only poor or stupid people actually turn up when they are drafted.
https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1521844987155132417?s=20&t=d8JocPsjbJyhtNaLdXzhmw
No idea if it's TRUE btw
can’t see them declaring victory with maripol still holding out.
They already have conscription but they can’t acknowledge that conscripts are in combat in Ukraine
They're not in combat.
Or at war.
They are doing a "special military operation."
Which is obviously neither of the other two things.
I believe as well as the deployment legality that thols2 highlights, they can then call up more folk as and when they like. Usually it has to be approved by Kremlin each year, and there are two drafts only.
Another question will be - do they have the uniform/guns/food/transport to equip a wave of new soldiers, or have enough NCO's and higher to train and lead the new conscripts?
or have enough NCO’s and higher to train and lead the new conscripts?
They don't really have enough NCO's for the current army, by all accounts.
This is a really interesting thread which explains the knot Russia has tied itself in because it hasn't declared war, and why it didn't. 'Why' because they expected a walk in the park, hence the 'special military operation' nonsense.
Because war has not been declared, their inflexible bureaucratic procedures mean 'contractors' their professional soldiers, can legally refuse to fight, and a great many have and continue to do so. They also legally can't send conscripts, although that seems to have happened anyway. This is the incentive for Putin to officially declare war, but it is a massive about face and admission that they f****d up big time!
The thread goes on to discuss the Moscow-centric nature of Russian politics and how all the potential successors to Putin, including Navalny are Moscow based nationalists who are likely to operate in a broadly similar tsar-like way. He discusses the lack of agency people in Russia generally, but the regions in particular have. People don't care because they simply have no expectation of ever having any influence or say, so defer all decisions to whoever is in the Kremlin. This is so deeply embedded it will task a huge upheaval to break.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521850468313579520?s=20&t=7A-_Cl_Qxmn9G-ZX8WDvyQ
Another question will be – do they have the uniform/guns/food/transport to equip a wave of new soldiers, or have enough NCO’s and higher to train and lead the new conscripts?
If they don't have enough trucks to supply their current army, sending more untrained conscripts who need food and ammunition won't help.
https://twitter.com/OSINTEng/status/1521847848396070913
It sound like they are bombing Ukraine tonight I can see a week of random destruction from Russia
Tourniquet update. There are ten arriving soon bought by the amazing kilo, once I’ve done a video call to my medic friend in Przyemsl testing them, they will be sent and I will set up a just giving page to start buying more.
I will get photos of them at each stage of te journey.
I can see a week of random destruction from Russia
Indeed. 🙁
Seems more reports of horrendous treatment and torture by Russians today. And let us not forget the thousands that have been illegally moved to Russia - either illegal prison camps or illegal resettlement camps. I wonder how much frustration & revenge will be taken out on them. 🙁
Yep. Russia has nothing positive to offer its neighbours, only coercion and violence. China seems to be making the same mistake.
https://twitter.com/PopovaProf/status/1521909757652647939
On the misinformation of Jacques Baud (shared a few times on this thread)…
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1522091432198160384?s=21
And now an accidental incursion into Finnish airspace by a Russian helicopter, just as Finland are at a critical time in their decision making for joining NATO:
And now an accidental incursion into Finnish airspace by a Russian helicopter, just as Finland are at a critical time in their decision making for joining NATO:
Surely that is counterproductive. Pre-February the Russians could plausibly say "trust us, we would never hurt you". Now the facts are clear - you need a big stick to keep even a mangy bear in line. Finland would be mad to trust them.
p.s. for a brilliant novel set in the Winter War - Unknown Soldier by Vaino Linna (sp?)
Finland is never going to trust them, believe me. They might have some parties that are friendly or influenced by Russia, but the country knows that they cannot trust them.
It's the same thing here in Sweden. We have airspace violations a lot (over Gotland and other places) and have some politicians that seem oddly reluctant to fully condemn current Russian activity; Jimmie Åkesson of Sverige Demokratarna, I am looking at you.
Wow, weird... Another anti-immigration, nationalist, right-wing party that has ties to Putin/Russia. Who would have thought it?
Worth remembering that incursions into foreign countries airspace is more or less routine and has been happening for decades. Not sure when it started but I'd hazard a guess the 1950s.
Edit, the obvious example for context would be Gary Powers.
www.airforcemag.com/article/intercepting-the-bear/
Actually states 1961 for "Bears" being intercepted on the periphery of US/Canadian airspace.
can’t see them declaring victory with maripol still holding out.
Given the control over the media and population, I reckon he can declare any kind of victory he wants.
Agreed on the incursions, but 5-6km inside the border in a helicopter is a bit of a stretch.
can’t see them declaring victory with maripol still holding out.
I reckon they are going to go all out to finish off Mariupol and the steelworks.
Whatever the cost in lives Putin will want to be able to say he's achieved what he wanted by 9th, it'll just be limited to Crimea corridor.
He will keep trying to push further in Donbas, even if he officially declared war over.
There are now only 2000 RU troops around Azovstal, the rest have been taken for the Donbas.
Agreed on the incursions, but 5-6km inside the border in a helicopter is a bit of a stretch.
Not really. I did a few tours in Northern Ireland in EOD teams in the 80s and 90s. I was inadvertently flown over the border into ROI airspace several times. By RAF and Army Air Corps pilots. Once in 86 doing a recce of a job near Warrenpoint in a Gazelle, the AAC pilot flew us a good 4 km into the south without realising. Simple navigation error, although this was pre GPS and nav was mostly paper charts.
This happened all the time in South Armagh, Femanagh and Tyrone. Tales of EOD teams being dropped by Chinook, Wessex or Puma in a field in the ROI were common, though this never happened to me. The ROI government took 'border incursions' very seriously if they found out, issuing demarches to the UK Ambassador in Dublin. Foot patrols had it worse, if they strayed across the border (which was often the middle of a field) the Garda would arrest them and confiscate their weapons,
Over a vast featureless forest in Scandinavia I can easily see it being a lot further. I know avionics and nav kit has improved, but if a helicopter pilot is flying low level, he is more focused on flying the aircraft than navigating and could easily stray some distance over a border.
Then they invented GPS
Then they invented GPS
Thanks for that. My point is, tactical low level flying in a helicopter is extremely demanding for the crew and sometimes their attention is more focused on flight controls than GPS screens and navigation errors are made.
Then they invented GPS
Assuming it functions
Then they invented GPS
Assuming the aircraft they were flying had any devices with modern GPS fitted, that they did a pre flight navigation plan that set expectations about their course, height, flying time, waypoints for navigation, weather reports, contact with ATC and so on and so on...That they looked at a map and made some calculations about where the border might be
Having seen the maps RUA use in Ukraine, I'm not hugely surprised.
They don't have enough young men in their population to support a war
Russian population has been on decline for decades
They have been sending minorities to fight
They are running out of men
The use of mercenaries supports this
I thought the use of mercenaries and people from other Federations within Russia, e.g Dagestan, is that legally they are not at war so cannot force more conscription for Russians, or use all of their Russian regular soldiers. Hence using Chechen nutters, Wagner etc. under the auspices of helping the Federation resolve the Nazi issue in Ukraine
Anyone seen the interview with Lukashenko? Either it's another "bluff" and Belarus are about to pile into Ukraine (unlikely) or Putin's poodle has had an olfactory dose of coffee and is starting to hedge.
Doesn't look good for Vlad the Invader if the rat for whom it is commonly accepted that his grip on power is dependent upon Putin's support, is starting to cast his eye about for an attractive new ship..
For the amateur armchair commander: if Russia is blowing up the infrastructure how can the munitions be brought in? Presumably not using those giant Chinook helicopters.
Anyone seen the interview with Lukashenko? Either it’s another “bluff” and Belarus are about to pile into Ukraine (unlikely) or Putin’s poodle has had an olfactory dose of coffee and is starting to hedge.
Lukashenko cannot be happy with the situation, it can only make it more difficult for him to cling on to power. Being seen as Putin's poodle doesn't sit well with his "strong leader of an independent Belarus" image, and having a grumpy army is never good for an autocrat who rules by oppression and fear (albeit that the security forces he relies on for this are not the army). And I imagine being sent to fight in Ukraine will make the Belarus army very grumpy.
So the big man is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Pre-Ukraine, if Lukashenko had been seen to be losing his grip Putin might have been minded to launch a "special operation" like in the Prague Spring - what would happen now is anybody's guess.
I thought the use of mercenaries and people from other Federations within Russia, e.g Dagestan, is that legally they are not at war so cannot force more conscription for Russians, or use all of their Russian regular soldiers. Hence using Chechen nutters, Wagner etc. under the auspices of helping the Federation resolve the Nazi issue in Ukraine
I read an article saying that many of them were being used to force the conscripts to the front line. And shoot deserters.
I would imagine that, like Caesar, when you are in a position like Putin’s you are always watching your back.
I think one word ends that point - Stalin.
He killed millions,and many of those millions were the family of soldiers in the Russian military, and not just squaddies. But his purges went on and on and nobody assassinated him. He ruled by fear and a network of spies willing to dob each other in to gain a bit of praise.
We saw from 'The Death of Stalin' even party members had their family members imprisoned or killed
I expect its the same under Putin. nobody knows who to trust, so no plot can be watertight enough to come to fruition. Even so much as a rumour and you go out a window somewhere high up.
I've set up the group buy for tourniquets for Ukraine.
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/tourniquet-group-buy-for-ukraine/
Only poor or stupid people actually turn up when they are drafted.
To quote Steve Earle in ‘Copperhead Road’ - “They draft the white trash first round here every time”
Piece I read a little while ago about the new hardware that’s arriving in Ukraine, specifically the 155mm M777 Howitzers, along with some similar U.K./French battlefield weaponry. Also America is supplying new 155mm GPS guided ammunition, which along with the spotting use of drones giving accurate GPS locations of individual vehicles means every shot can count.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39841070/ukrainian-army-field-howitzers/
https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/us-military-artillery-ukraine-russia-war/
Seems it’s not just small explosive munitions that are being re-purposed by grafting 3D-printed fins on and dropping them from drones, it’s happening with larger ordnance as well:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-cheap-grenades-expensive-tanks/31835434.html
Ref the infrastructure question. Railways are actually surprisingly easy to repair, if you have the right kit, and you’re not doing it in the middle of a battlefield. So strikes in the west and centre of the country ought to be repairable pretty quickly. Fuel depots I would imagine would be more difficult, but it doesn’t feel like the intensity of the Russian bombing is enough to bring the place to a halt.
Somehow I think this falls a bit short of plausible deniability.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1522331470764851203
Reports of sinking of another ship; the Admiral Makarov with another Neptune missile
Not a good look for the bear.
