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I see the nicotine-stained man-frog is rightfully getting pilloried on Twitter for his prior support to Putin. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that Russian attempts to create instability in the EU and NATO are part of a deliberate strategy to serve Putin’s expansionist aims. Brexiteers must be proud of themselves in helping destabilise European peace.
There is probably a significant effort by Western powers to launch offensive cyber against Russian assets as well as help protect Ukrainian infrastructure. The Russians are now attacking western businesses in retaliation. There’s also footage of a Russian tank being taken out by a UK-supplied anti-tank weapon.
Perhaps the Russians have under-estimated the amount of effort it is going to take, particularly knowing they are likely to face significant counter-insurgency. This could drag on for a long time.
Apparently in response to US offers to airlift him out; Zelinsky responded. "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition"
They're going to build statues to this guy eventually
The Russians will face an insurgency. Their response will be a counter-insurgency.
Would they be mad enough to destroy Chernobyl to cause a disaster?
It would **** Belarus as well as Ukraine, so probably not.
For my sins in watching a bit of RT.
They are great at dredging up useful idiots though.
I'm sure our intelligence services are finding this quite handy. Pre-Ukraine, it was only getting about 3,000 viewers a day so it's only a small part of Russia's disinformation network. They will be expending far more effort online.
Boycott BP filling stations. Hell boycott Al filling stations but especially BP ones.
I like the sentiment but...
We saw what happened when a couple of stations ran a bit low
Perhaps the Russians have under-estimated the amount of effort it is going to take
I think they expected their usual tactics against former client states to have worked, however Ukraine both understand the tactics and aren't giving up in a way the Russians expected them to.
Lot of Euro countries sending more weaponry now.
I had a feeling the Russians were sending in conscripts/old kit first to exhaust any extra supplies Ukraine had been given before sending in the top troops.
The Ukrainian defense so far has been heroic, but you do feel if Russia wanted to it could quickly escalate things.
before sending in the top troops.
I wouldn't be sure. I've seen reporting that suggests Russian troops in Kyiv are only Special Forces. The regular forces are being held up.
If you see the footage, the Russians have ID'd themselves, red bands are conscripts, white bands are regular troops. They'll be better equipped and trained (in theory).
Telegraph reported 2000 of those NLAW devices were sent over in January.
@binners you're so right. To think we're seeing the Ukrainian equivalents of Boris Johnston, Kier Starmer and Sadique Khan enlisting themselves alongside other politicians and countrymen/women to fight on the front line. Certainly makes me think that we can and should demand more from our own politicians than the snouts in the trough we're used to.
just watching a bit of RT. its amazing to me that british and american people are willing to sell themselves out to work for this organisation….
My ex's brother writes articles for Russia Today. Haven't seen him in a long while but it would be interesting to hear him talk about it now. From what I've seen of his work a lot of it is legit research into western government/security services influence in Hollywood etc but you can see how it fits Russia's agenda of sowing distrust.
Yea they just reported that they've sent the elite in first. Paratroopers etc. Might ratchet up when the blundering conscripts are sent in.
If you see the footage, the Russians have ID’d themselves, red bands are conscripts, white bands are regular troops. They’ll be better equipped and trained (in theory).
Still need the same supply lines tho - wonder if that's slowing them down?
But is having the elected government on the frontline a sensible tactic? What's the impact if the President gets his head turned into a fruit bowl?
The country needs a functioning government, no good if they all get shwacked.
Re Kicking Russia off of SWIFT. There are other payment systems plus both India and China are looking to develop payment systems to allow them to trade with Russia. The law of unintended consequences may apply.
Boycott BP filling stations.
Why ? What do you believe that will achieve ? The fuel still gets to market.
The point, however weak of any government backed sanctions or "consumer sanctions" might seem is to make the impact of the war economic. Even if there are work arounds, and western businesses and banks that deal with russian interests are damaged it all contributes to the isolation and general embuggerance, a death by a thousand cuts, that Russia can avoid by simply stopping their activities in Ukraine.
We're dealing with a Gangster Autocracy, you have to strangle the flow of money as much as possible, and yes it might hurt western businesses in the short term but so what?
One of the biggest issue right now is Russia has a captive market in gas and oil in the EU and UK, we're all helping fund this war and it's hard to disentangle ourselves from that in the short term...
I wouldn’t be sure. I’ve seen reporting that suggests Russian troops in Kyiv are only Special Forces. The regular forces are being held up.
Is it not SOP for an invading force to do a bit of reconisance before committing a major force? Maybe drag their feet to allow a few more non-combatants to evacuate?
The News seems to suggest approx 1/3rd of the Russian forces are now in Ukraine and they're at the outskirts of the capital.
@stretch Potentially, they're spread far and wide, resupply will always be a challenge. Could get even more challenging as the civilian populace are starting to hit back.
They could very easily find themselves cut off if the hole their advances have punched through start closing and getting hit by home guard.
Or we could do nothing,
You might as well if you believe that is taking action.
As far as actions go it's up there with using a Ukrainian flag on your Facebook profile picture.
BP petrol stations are franchises.
As I said BP plc fuel will still get to market.
But is having the elected government on the frontline a sensible tactic? What’s the impact if the President gets his head turned into a fruit bowl?
It takes a few minutes to film and support the (massive) information war, then return to ops room.
I know that bud. Had plenty of visits over the years, I'm referring to those who think actually having them there permanently trading fire with their aggressors is somehow heroic or good. It's ****ing stupid.
Zelinsky knows if they catch him, he's dead. Standing up and fighting takes amazing guts when he could simply flee but the Ukrainians are tough bastards by nature/nurture.
God I'd love to see him flanked by the Klitschko brothers sat at a table accepting Putin's General's surrender
I’m finding the response by many orgs really hopeful. Pornhub blocking Russian IP’s is hilarious though.
Been impressed to see EE and BT offering free calls and data to and from Ukraine.
You might as well if you believe that is taking action.
As far as actions go it’s up there with using a Ukrainian flag on your Facebook profile picture.
BP petrol stations are franchises.
As I said BP plc fuel will still get to market.
It's not about stopping BP fuel getting to market, it's about sending a message to a major corporation that they need to change their business practices, now and in the future.
My effort will mean nothing. Millions of "me" across Europe will mean something. Or I could just shrug my shoulders and do nothing.
I don't think the president will be right on the front line on the thick of the action but I do think he will go down fighting.
Churchill wasn't fighting a rearguard action at Dunkirk but he had a bunker and a Bren gun at Chequers where he would go if the Germans had landed and it all looked lost, I expect Zelinsky has similar plans.
(IIRC Churchill quite enjoyed bricklaying as a hobby and had built the bunker himself)
.
Having said that, back in the day the King used to be at the head of the army and would fight, and sometimes be killed. I think the big difference there was he had to command that battle in the moment, Zelinsky has an entire country/resistance to organise and you can't do that in a fox hole under fire.
Brexiteers must be proud of themselves in helping destabilise European peace.
Well David Cameron did warn us that voting leave might bring war to Europe.
Another thing to blame Brexit.
Indeed, I admire him and his commitment to his people. My point is putting himself directly in harms way will not help, you need a function government to make decisions ), to negotiate, etc. If they're dead then it makes things a little more challenging to resist.
I appreciate he appeals to people because ours would most likely be rats from a sinking ship. But losing your elected head of state helps nothing.
And to add, the last thing his generals need is a politician interfering in the tactical and strategic battle.
See Iraq & Afghanistan as great examples.
Edit: don't get me wrong, I think he's doing an awesome job and serving his people admirably. The world could do with more men and women in politics with his ethos.
Mctd
You know what a franchise is right ?
BP plc wouldn't even notice - even if their franchises didn't sell a drop of fuel for as long as this continues.
The franchiseeee on the other hand would be brought to his knees.
If millions of "me" Stop using fuel stop using gas. Then BP and Russia would notice....
As I said BP plc fuel will still get to market.
Fair point, perhaps the ultimate act of protest is not buying any fuel for the car, working from home, with the heating turned off (even then they're not totally cut off from your money)...
Not an option for everyone though.
I do think people should at least consider how their consumer choices might be helping fund unethical activity around the world, not just Russian wars...
Hard one though. The devices we're using are inextricably tied to human misery somewhere along the chain of creating them.
Everything is a compromise for sure, nigh on impossible to be a consumer and not have that negative shadow cast on you a little. Which is pretty sad.
Indeed, I admire him and his commitment to his people. My point is putting himself directly in harms way will not help, you need a function government to make decisions ), to negotiate, etc. If they’re dead then it makes things a little more challenging to resist.
What he needs is a motivated unified people.
What he is achieving by his actions of leading from the front is a motivated unified people
He is the person your management consultancy books talk about when they say a leader does not do so from behind.
Not disputing any of that, but that notion is pretty old and we're talking armed conflict, not upping shareholder profits or a football team.
When it comes to war, things are slightly different. Those doing the fighting, leading men and women potentially to their deaths also need to know that their head of state and the government is safe and is continuing to make the decisions to bring this thing to a close.
They die and things go sideways pretty damn quick. Equating this to some gash business leader model is exactly the sort of thing those consultants masturbate about.
PCA (Peter Caddick Adams) has been tweeting his views of Ukrainian performance and they are pretty positive. Thinks the Russians may be in danger of over extending their supply lines - hope he’s right.
I guess he could lead from behind sending folk to their death without motivating them. Nice and safely from the USA
It’s quite easy to see why he’s doing what he’s doing. Traditional war tactics are not what he needs here. Desperate times desperate measures - what ever he’s doing it appears to be working.
My extensive scan of twitter this morning seems to show that Putin expected this to be easy, and was relying on capturing Ukrainian supplies to keep momentum. This has not happened, Ukrainian forces expected the strategy and have concentrated on disrupting supplies / protecting their own. There are reports of Russian tanks running out of fuel.
War is logistics and the logistics are showing Russia up. It begs all sorts of questions about Putin’s grasp on reality / advisors / intelligence. And is worrying because we do not know what he will do realising that he’s exposed.
I’m oscillating between hope and terror. The world has definitely changed.
@timbog160 hopefully, if the Ukrainians can strangle them a little more it'll speed that process up.
I can't help but think Putin knows this isn't winnable, but he'll spin it as a show of strength. We'll then see the next 10 years of the Europe up-armouring in response. And we'll be back to a Europe from not so long ago (although it's not that far now).
Watching Zelensky’s defiance must be winding Putin up no end 😂
The BBC are reporting that captured Russian soldiers are saying they’ve no idea what they’re actually doing there. There is no strategy and no clearly stated aims. No end game. They’re making it up as they go along.
Sounds like Iraq. That went well
Upon taking pffice, Zelinsky's first pronouncement was:
"Don't put a picture of me on the wall at your place of work, put up a picture of your children"
@trail_rat don't misunderstand me, he's leading from the front as he should be, just not the front.
He's doing a ****ing awesome job as are his military and volunteer soldiers.
As for 'traditional' tactics, there is no such thing, the enemy informs your moves. What I'm talking about is keeping your government functioning because without that it all falls apart.
Jingoism doesn't win wars. Attrition does.
Ironically by invading Ukraine, Putin's going to get the one thing he doesn't want: A reasonably united armed Europe
@nickc have you seen the video doing the rounds of a not so old select committee?
'The days of tank battles in Europe are over' is a quote that I hope haunts those etonian clowns out of the HoP.
My extensive scan of twitter this morning seems to show that Putin expected this to be easy, and was relying on capturing Ukrainian supplies to keep momentum. This has not happened, Ukrainian forces expected the strategy and have concentrated on disrupting supplies / protecting their own. There are reports of Russian tanks running out of fuel.
War is logistics and the logistics are showing Russia up. It begs all sorts of questions about Putin’s grasp on reality / advisors / intelligence. And is worrying because we do not know what he will do realising that he’s exposed.
I’m oscillating between hope and terror. The world has definitely changed.
I don't think the Russian army is the well oiled machine everyone fears, they are largely unmotivated, poorly equipped and poorly fed. Yes they have numbers, but having large numbers of poorly trained and motivated soldiers can be a problem of control. Remember the warship going through the channel a few years ago, that had the press in raptures, that had to be accompanied everywhere it sailed by tugboats because it broke down so often. That is the reality of the Russian war machine.
Unfortunately they also have an unstable dictator who sees himself as a god, and a nuclear arsenal.
@MSP I said similar elsewhere number mean very little on their own, but the war whores love to beat that drum, I think they crack off over defence league tables.
When they pull up the maps on TV with all those lines and arrows, (like the opening credits of dad's army), I can't help bit think 'those lines look a bit thin?' Which in turn makes me think that Putin thought it would be all over by now...
Fantastic clip of a captured Russian soldier being made to speak to his parents on loud speaker telling them he's captured. Must be great for Russian morale.
Other clips of young Russian soldiers crying whilst being berated my Ukrainian housewives.
It appears the French have stopped and impounded a Russian cargo vessel that was sailing through the Channel.
Fantastic clip of a captured Russian soldier being made to speak to his parents on loud speaker telling them he’s captured. Must be great for Russian morale.
Other clips of young Russian soldiers crying whilst being berated my Ukrainian housewives.
I think Russia has blocked facebook now, I am sure it does other stuff as well to control the narrative, so it depends how much of the reality breaks through the propoganda smokescreen.
Seeing as he rose to fame as a TV star, which in turn became the platform for his getting elected, Zelinsky is mastering the optics.
He has positioned himself, (and his nation) as defenders of democracy as much as defenders of Ukraine. I think he might have watched that movie "The 300"
I fully expect the word 'Leonidas' and the phrase 'hot gates' to come into popular usage.
Would now be an appropriate time to want a much deeper investigation into the Russian funding of the brexit campaign and the Tories/Johnson.
Jingoism doesn’t win wars. Attrition does.
The two are linked though.
How many Ukrainians speak Russian? Are the two languages mutually intelligible? This has to be an interesting factor for an occupation.
Edit: they apparently aren't mutually intelligible, they are about as different as French and Portuguese, but nearly all Ukrainians are bilingual and it's a bilingual country.
@molgrips good observation. Although the atteition gives you something to be jingoistic about. And they're doing a bloody good job of giving the Russains a spanking.
Older Ukrainians will speak Russian, it was taught in schools before the USSR collapsed.
Younger ones are more likely to speak English than older ones, and Russian is still fairly common.
Speaking English is very useful for the global media campaign
France has detained a Russian ship. This is in line with the sanctions.
Taken me surprise that something this physical would be an outcome. A bit of a worry that any mistakes here could lead to an escalation.
So from Dr Peter Caddick-Adams:
Stories emerging from Russia that their special forces were infiltrated and complete in Kharkiv, Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities by 18 Feb. Putin anticipated a 3-4 day campaign, & budgeted for ten days fighting at $20bn/day. Anger that this may have misfired.
@militaryhistori on Twitter
All bodes well for a end sometime soon.
Or he roles out other weapons that I doubt the military or civilian population are equipped to deal with.
I wouldn't put it past him, but more than happy to be utterly wrong.
With his troops positioned where they are, are the mass destruction weapons an option? I'd say not, there's a good number of them in the main cities by now.
Chemical and biological munitions aren't mass destruction, but proximity of own troops should apply as a concern. But who knows?
They're in the armoury, but maybe even he and his generals aren't that batshit.
$20bn/day? Google recons that Iraq cost the US around $2tn, so Russia could spend that in 100 days rather than 18yrs?
How is it so much, and if it is accurate how long could they afford to sustain that? I heard they have $650bn of foreign reserves, but that's just over a month's worth, they could obviously spend more than that but how much more amd for how long?
With his troops positioned where they are are the mass destruction weapons an option? I’d say not, there’s a good number of them in the main cities by now.
Do we think Putin cares at this stage ?
I wouldn't bet my life on it.
I suspect that if putin uses nukes in Ukraine then he will also lose china and probably indian support.
They are sitting on the fence as it is, going that far would probably push them off that fence
Do we think Putin cares at this stage ?
I wouldn’t bet my life on it
That's end of days stuff, I can't imagine it'd do well for him with the Russian vote, but they'll be told he had no option no doubt
Does ****stan play into why India abstained?
I think more to do with significant commercial ties between Russia and India…
Can anyone explain how Russia sits in the UN? Why haven’t they been kicked out for invading another UN state?
At this point it's a lot of unknowns and watching on, how well are the Russians supported, how strong is the support chain, etc, etc, all we know is they tend to overestimate their ability.
The West can't really do much unless Russia is caught red handed doing something like using chemical weapons, which would break international law and allow NATO and others to deploy peacekeepers, or allow a retaliatory strike, which Putin would more than likely escalate due to his nature.
It's just an act of madness just now though, each day that goes by just makes Putin's ambition less and less likely, even taking into consideration the near impossible task the Ukrainian military have, i mean what is the next step, an occupation force for the entire Ukraine, that'll never end well either.
Seen the video of the old woman giving that soldier shit?
I'm very impressed with her forthright language.
Another one of an old man identifying as Russian bollocking a Russian soldier.
What twitter sources are people using?
After that Caddick-Evans quote above, I'll re-post this...
This clearly isn’t going as smoothly as putin expected/wanted so I think he has 3 options:
1. Continue and accept russian death toll as necessary; Ukrainian deaths will be seen as collateral damage.
2. Back down.
3. Escalate with objective of rapid capitulation.Option 1 will further damage his credibility and ‘popularity’ in Russia; doubt he cares.
Option 2 is a non-starter.
Option 3 in whatever form it could take – dirty bomb, indiscriminate (carpet) bombing, limited nuclear strike – would, almost certainly, result in Nato becoming directly involved on the ground and retaliatory action; doubt he’s particularly bothered by this either.There are other options but none of them include him taking decisions; they will be around others deciding what to do about him and enforcing their will.
The Russian army isn't organised or equipped for any sort of supply problem - so reports of ammunition running out are very believable. Good they haven't got air superiority either so I hope they're getting as many missiles as they need, and ditto antitank weapons. Russian pilots don't train much for ground attack either.
Good optics by the Ukraine to get the Red Cross to repatriate thousands of bodies so the Russians can't just disappear them.
Yes we should detain Russian ships. Sanctions should be meaningful and have effect
Just spent 20 mins browsing Caddick-Evans' Twitter (who appears glued to his phone!) and he suggests that the fact the Ukranians are fellow Slavs and can speak Russian is making it hard for Russians to 'other' them.
Also suggesting that Putin duped a lot of Russian MPs who say they voted to recognise the separatist regions rather than invade Ukraine; and the Russian public who thought they really were just exercises and are now quite surprised.
PCA’s stuff is super insightful. He doesn’t seem to have much faith that the Russians will prevail, in spite of the US and various other intelligence services saying that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable.
I wonder what affect blocking all Russian ships and aircraft from territorial waters and airspace would have if all NATO/EU members implemented it.
Then again, Russia would start Naval escorts, so back to the starting WW3 problem again.
the US and various other intelligence services saying that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable.
I hadn't seen that (I'm not looking hard, this thread is my primary source) but the MoD did tweet that it wasn't going well for the Russians.
I can’t imagine it’d do well for him with the Russian vote, but they’ll be told he had no option no doubt
Nuking a civilian population he was supposed to be liberating from 'neo-nazis and ultra-nationalists' doesn't seem to be a good look, even for him.
As for Chemical/Biological, I would be very surprised if anything below his elite units was suitably equipped to deal with it.
Putin's endgame? I wouldn't be surprised if he considers trying to take the land east of the Dinipro, former a 'border' there, and claim that was his goal all along. I'm not sure even that is a long-term possibility, he has to subdue and hold cities such as Kharkiv and Donetsk.
The longer it lasts the harder it's going to be for him to back down.
The longer it lasts the easier it will be to replace him.
It's a shit show
‘The days of tank battles in Europe are over’ is a quote that I hope haunts those etonian clowns out of the HoP.
The Etonian clowns with oligarch class mates or friends,I think it was telling when Starmer mentioned shell companies in his speech.
That lot are complicit in allowing London to be bought and sold by the dirty money, wasn’t that the tell with the Russia report, that they didn’t actually bother to investigate.
The Russian blocks on Facebook and Twitter - can they be circumvented by the general public?
Can anyone explain how Russia sits in the UN?
Because when the UN was formed none of the major countries, at the time, wanted to give it to much power to either hurt them directly or hurt their client states.
It was deliberately designed to be weak. Just think about how people would respond if the UN got given serious power and hence sovereignty over the various nations.
The BBC are reporting that captured Russian soldiers are saying they’ve no idea what they’re actually doing there. There is no strategy and no clearly stated aims. No end game. They’re making it up as they go along.
Sounds like Iraq. That went well
It is much worse than that. The initial Iraqi invasion was relatively smooth (it was a major military action so was a massive mess), with clear, well briefed tactical objectives. The strategic arena is where it all fell apart. By the reports coming out of Ukraine it is a tactical and logistical and financial mess for the Russians, as well as having severe and unforeseeable strategic outcomes.
I've just seen a post on our local FB asking if anyone knows a place that has diesel... Related?
I’ve just seen a post on our local FB asking if anyone knows a place that has diesel… Related?
Depends. Was it made by a Russian tank operator ?