Sound like the need for a high level ec3 awacs platform and a half dozen A10s
Supposed to be hard to pick them out against the ground clutter. I am sure the various planes hanging around in Poland etc (like this one) will be sending info across but the range might make it harder.
Dunno about A-10s but might be a good fit for attack helicopters.
Going to be lots of R&D going into counter options. Did see an article about some of the stuff the US army is trialling. Special rifle sights (think do the speed estimation and then provide an offset) and proximity fused rounds for the 40mm grenade launchers plus anti drone drones.
One of the accounts from the attack this morning could easily be mistaken for a V-1 attack on London. The sound of the droning motor before it cuts out and then a couple of seconds later the explosion.
With the same use profile as well: No real strategic value, just terror. The comparison with the V1 is maybe lost on the man that wanted to de-nazify Ukraine.
Wonder if we still have any barrage balloons knocking about.
At the risk of godwinning, the parallel between these drones and the V weapons is way stronger than the obvious (ie, being horrible unmanned single use terror weapons with no tactical and fairly little strategic value, that ultimately won't be very good at terrorising either). It's also grown out of the same strategic situation- the conventional army isn't succeeding, and so the leader is turning to novelties and vanity projects and strategic nothings just so he can at least blow some things up in kiev, while ukraine continues to destroy his ability to make useful war.
But it seems almost inevitable that this will have the exact same effect it did then- it'll distract critical effort and resources away from the failing conventional efforts that desperately need it. It's absolute madness to be spending (probably) hundreds of millions of dollars on single use flying bombs, when you can't feed and clothe your troops. In this case, that effect'll be reduced since it's going to be mostly a financial impact- they're not wasting their own factories and raw materials- but that'll still cut.
Irony of course is that they could still be quite effective simply because they're a bit shit- the anti air countermeasures are for sophisticated weapons, so it's a bit like having an anti-tank missile and being charged by cavalry. And the economics at least are better than the missile madness we saw recently of firing off expensive irreplacable kit just to cause some bangs. But it's no way to run a railroad.
OTOH it does strike me that ukraine could be in a position to make better use of similar weapons- in much the same way as the sophisticated missiles have threatened Russia's shitty logistics. And for much the same reasons- they shouldn't be effective in a modern war, but the russian logistical element isn't what we'd call modern.
Yes and no.
According to wiki they are really cheap, £20k a pop. So launching a few hundred isn't really that much and they might be contra'd for other goods.
As for the effects, the west will probably supply something that can knock them out the sky, if such a thing exists.
Or ukr will be forced to redeploy some AA back to Kiev that is protecting frontline troops currently.
The ukr af seems to be able to conjure up solutions really quickly and in house so they may well be working on this already.
I'd have thought a large number of 20mm equipped technicals would be a low cost option for countering Shaheds
@stm, they're cheap individually but they're flying huge numbers- and have to,to have even a bump of effectiveness. And the logistics impact won't be trivial either- easy enough for, frinstance, us but not for a military that's basically run out of trucks. Unless tehy can deal with that through nonmilitary logistics...
"It was an accident"
I saw a headline from some Israeli news site this morning that suggested that Israel may be feeling less cautious about upsetting Russia now that Russia is using Iranian hardware against Ukraine. That might be more the opinion of the site than the Israeli government though, I didn’t read the article
Yep I saw this on Twitter, I wasn't able to find it backed up by any news sites tho
I’d have thought a large number of 20mm equipped technicals would be a low cost option for countering Shaheds
They're difficult things to deal with. You can see Ukrainians trying to shoot them down with automatic rifles in their cities; those rounds will travel through a light polystyrene/plastic structure causing minimal damage and back to earth with a helping of gravity within city limits. Less devastating than a warhead though.
During WW2 fighter pilots could catch V1 flying bombs and tip their wings to steer them away. Drones will have guidance systems so this wouldn't work and there's the possibility of a remote detonation taking an aircraft out.
Electronics seem to be the answer to disrupt drone systems, possibly deployed from a helicopter or light aircraft for mobility and speed, but I don't know that decent systems exist
Is that ammo going off in that tower block plane crash?
Electronics seem to be the answer to disrupt drone systems, possibly deployed from a helicopter or light aircraft for mobility and speed, but I don’t know that decent systems exist
Modernised AA would probably be fairly safe with airburst proximity shells eg Centurion C-RAM seems to have been used with minimal issues and thats with just shells which burn out vs proximity.
It runs into the problem of how many you need though. They can only protect a relatively small area so fine for a military base but not when the attackers are just trying to terrorise civilians with random strikes on an entire city.
Interesting article from a former Russia diplomat.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/sources-russia-misconduct-boris-bondarev
Over the course of the war, Western leaders have become acutely aware of Russia’s military’s failings. But they do not seem to grasp that Russian foreign policy is equally broken. Multiple European officials have spoken about the need for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, and if their countries grow tired of bearing the energy and economic costs associated with supporting Kyiv, they could press Ukraine to make a deal. The West may be especially tempted to push Kyiv to sue for peace if Putin aggressively threatens to use nuclear weapons.
But as long as Putin is in power, Ukraine will have no one in Moscow with whom to genuinely negotiate. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not be a reliable interlocutor, nor will any other Russian government apparatus. They are all extensions of Putin and his imperial agenda. Any cease-fire will just give Russia a chance to rearm before attacking again.
It runs into the problem of how many you need though. They can only protect a relatively small area so fine for a military base...snip
Agreed. AA systems are relatively thin on the ground and are difficult to deploy in the face of a random terror attack with a war raging as well. I'd like to think that the fighting will be over very soon.
I don't know about the capability of modern radar against small UAVs, but I can see a case for a return to a rural observer corps, telephones and a QRF in light aircraft/helicopters that can deploy electronics to an area.
This war has turned the need for ridiculously expensive and complex aircraft and ships on its head, but that won't always be the case
Interesting article from a former Russia diplomat.
Yes, something that has been stated many times on this thread.
I don’t know about the capability of modern radar against small UAVs,
I would be genuinely surprised if any radar that the Ukrainians have that would pick these up. On an individual level of course being hit by one of these is going to be horrific, on an strategic level, I don't know of any bombing campaign that has by itself has met its aim to either cause surrender, or destabilise a government, or people
I’ve been watching TraumaZone
I'm four episodes in, it's genuinely fascinating, the things that strike me in no particular order. 1. How much of a shit hole it is. 2. the obvious levels of corruption, 3. How drunk everyone clearly is all the time. 4. How blatantly terrible everything is from houses to working conditions in factories 5. The propaganda that was fed us all to fear these poor folk.
Acoustic tracking is a thing going back to WW1 - see Sound Mirrors
Observer Corp type manual tracking worked for large formations of aircraft - I don't see it working against individual drones. It also needed the RAF to have air superiority over the UK - not true for large parts of Ukraine.
Automated acoustic tracking sounds doable - see paper here
The Ukrainians have done great work building decentralised artillery control systems, I'm sure they could build an acoustic tracking system for the "mopeds". Once that's done, shooting them down becomes a simpler problem. I suspect drone jammers will eventually become the main way of taking them down rather than MANPADs, small arms or anti-aircraft guns - there's an asymmetry in cost ($120k for a Stinger vs $20k for a Shahed)
The propaganda that was fed us all to fear these poor folk.
That show could itself be propaganda.. just saying.
I thought the shithead drone was autonomous. Ie. Pre programed to a gps co ordinate and left to its own devices once airborne
I think on the tele program Warship, which had tv crew on a T42 destroyer they could track a football at 10 miles with their radar.
Which is useless for Ukraine, but its a guide to technology. I guess its easier over water as its more or less flat.
Gulf war1 was a truly successful bombing campaign for the first 3 days. Tomahawk cruise missiles taking out alot of specific targets accurately and successfully to neutralize Iraq armed forces
I think the reality of tracking radar and the what the spec says it can do, are often miles apart. Rough seas for instance will screw up pretty much every ships radar so that sea skimming missiles are essentially all but invisible. the type 42 in the Falklands suffered this sort of issues launching it's own Sea Dart anti aircraft missiles - At low level rough sea states, or land in the distance, or fast moving low level (all within spec) just confused it. Systems will be optimised to look for certain things within certain envelopes (fast/high flying/large and so on) a small plastic drone flying below 200ft at under 100mph is probably all but invisible to a radar optimised to look for fast jets and helicopters
Possibly dumb question but... what is the point of shooting those drones down once they are over a populated area given that the ones that are not shot down don't seem to be particularly good at hitting strategic targets. If they're not going to hit their intended target but hit something random instead and you shoot it down and it hits something else random, hasn't that just wasted a bullet?
Not a dumb question, you'd aim to shoot them down over farmland. Hence the number of V1s that crashed where I grew up in Kent
Error
Warship was on a T45 destroyer, totally different to a T42 with 30years of improvements.
Well, 37 out of 43 drones were shot down yesterday (allegedly) - so it looks like they’re doing a decent job of intercepting them already 👍
Well, 37 out of 43 drones were shot down yesterday (allegedly) – so it looks like they’re doing a decent job of intercepting them already
However they are still causing significant disruption...
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said on Twitter that “since 10 October, 30% of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country”.
Destruction of power stations could have a serious effect on the Ukrainian war effort, particularly comms and manufacturing. It will be hard on their own citizens in the occupied areas, but I hope that are managing to black them out.
I think over 70% of V1 rockets were intercepted. It’s not really the point though, only a few need to get through to terrorise.
They are suffering a similar problem that Germany had in 1944 and 45.
Due to the Allied air offensive they had spend a huge amount of their resource on air defence. I have seen claims of as much as 40% of their war production. This obviously led to shortages of other stuff on the fronts.
The Shahed-136 range is pretty crazy - I'm not sure NATO has anything with similar capability (as they have focused more on battlefield tactical versions)? If they do then maybe they should supply a few to Ukraine so they can lob some at critical infrastructure within Russia to see if they get the message.
If they do then maybe they should supply a few to Ukraine so they can lob some at critical infrastructure within Russia to see if they get the message.
The long range missiles for HIMAR/M270 would make a few more places vulnerable and hit a lot harder.
Can anything be done to stop the supply of the drones from Iran? presume they have to be shipped to Russia? Via turkey? Rather than try to work out how to shoot them down, work out how to stop them getting into Ru hands in the first place?
Where are they being launched from? Inside Russia or from occupied territory? There must be a warehouse full of the things somewhere even if they don't need a dedicated launch site.
Can anything be done to stop the supply of the drones from Iran? presume they have to be shipped to Russia? Via turkey? Rather than try to work out how to shoot them down, work out how to stop them getting into Ru hands in the first place?
They're airfreighted in.
Another of Putin's henchmen has an unfortunate accident. Punished for incompetence or a move against the regime?
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1582139126228271104?s=20&t=LPuRLQAD9290786Qvoe46A
Special window operation
The drones are apparently being launched off flatbed trucks in Belarusian territories.
And Iran is supplying training in Belarus according to Ukraine.
In that case a nice line of anti-aircraft defences in Northern Ukraine might help. It would obviously be sad if any misses then fell over the boarder, but I guess that's life (and sadly also death)
I would be no good at diplomacy 🙁
Thats 600 aa batteries, spaced 1 mile apart along the Ukr - Belorussia border.
That's not really viable, and ypu you could increase the gap but as the drones basically fly nap of the earth they could simply fly through the gap.
Lots of chatter about big offensive going on in Kherson right now. Perhaps a scale up of what has already been happening. Given credence by announcement of the 'evacuation' of citizens to the left bank.
Surovikin meanwhile has done a highly charged interview (read practically comatose) in which he described the situation in Kherson as tense.
Surovikin a short while ago..
I'm just wondering what Russia would (or could) do if, say, hypothetically there was a middle of the night cruise missile strike against some Drone and Missile factories that are in another country?
Cuts one of Putins few external weapons supplies in such a way that they can't directly retaliate for. Buys Ukraine some time. Quite a few countries in the Gul...er, region, would be publicly (or privately) delighted. Big question would be whether the Ira...er the target countries regime would be further weakened or strengthened/emboldened by such an event.
Sounds like a bit of a Maverick move. Not sure who would do it though as the friendly faces in the region won't want to annoy Russia.
Attacking someone who is supplying weapons to one side in the war puts us in a pretty vulnerable position.....
Who dares, maybe, wins
Any idea why Ben Wallace was in Washington on an urgent visit?
We'll find out.
The NATO/ china thing is concerning though. News broke the same day eh?
Can we not just nuke Moscow and St.Petersurg? turn it into glass? that would teach them a lesson.
gofasterstripes
Free Member
We’ll find out.The NATO/ china thing is concerning though. News broke the same day eh?
What NATO/China thing mate? Been out of the loop today and can't find anything on the Beeb/ CNN sites?
Jens Stoltenberg has said that NATO allies will soon be supplying hundreds of "drone jammers"
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_208101.htm
Ukraine has asked Israel for their expertise and kit as well
Russia has denied that the drones are Iranian, but those that have been examined have Iranian parts.
Two-fold denial from Russia to avoid supply being cut off and to maintain the illusion of their superior arms industry?
From the same article, NATO is holding its annual nuclear preparedness exercise next week, which has been planned for some time. Russia holds its annual nuclear drills around the same time
Lots of "McCarthy warns no more 'blank check to Ukraine' if GOP captures House" headlines at the moment.
This worries me a bit, as GOP gaining a majority in the House is a likely scenario. He's not against helping Ukraine per se, but promises much more scrutiny. This will be a popular policy with the MAGA voters, who can't see why they are spending so much to help some random country when their petrol prices are a disgrace!
These are the same voters who were disgusted at a (admittedly badly thought out) withdrawl from Afghanistan.
What NATO/China thing mate?
Ex-RAF and NATO pilots are being recruited by the PLAAF to train their pilots.That, I think.
NATO is holding its annual nuclear preparedness exercise next week, which has been planned for some time. Russia holds its annual nuclear drills around the same time
This and Ben Wallace emergency trip to the ‘states has me nervous. It’ll only take one small mistake or misunderstanding amongst the posturing…
Can we not just nuke Moscow and St.Petersurg? turn it into glass? that would teach them a lesson.
I know you're joking but this is a horrific thing to say and in very poor taste.
Everything Russia blames Ukraine for and shouts about, is usually what they are doing themselves (Nazis, genocide, attacking civilians, the latest Kupyansk video). With that in mind I think the Russians are about to blow the Nova Kakhovka dam.
Also, all the Russian chatter to evacuate civilians from Kherson because Ukraine are about to start shelling them…………..
https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1582648862463754240
Is the South side of the river through Kherson higher ground? The Russian army could then let ukr forces have the north and potentially blow the dam flooding the town. Drowning and destroying armed forces and civilian personnel and equipment.
Best control the dam first before committing to the low ground downstream.
Just spiteful bad loosers with guns.
Ok, found a topography map. The south side is way lower than the northern bank.
So moving locals to the south is weird. Unless its a human sheild type. Or warning threat. Attack us, we blow dam and drown populace.
Cant see any benefits to ukr forces blowing it, the country needs its hydro power plant with alot of their others offline.
Evacuation of Kherson... Is General Armageddon going to nuke it?
In remarks to European ambassadors in a briefing on Wednesday, Benny Gantz said:
Israel supports and stands with Ukraine, Nato and the west.
This being said, I would like to emphasise that Israel will not deliver weapon systems to Ukraine due to a variety of operational considerations.
In case anyone is still wondering how reliable our “strategic partner in the Middle East” is.
Evacuation of Kherson
Sadly my guess is a combination of human shields and "if I can't have the land, I'll have the people".
But yes, there's a chance he will do something big and excuse it because "non-one was hurt, we evacuated before". Maybe even a big false flag attempt?
Vitally Kim, Governor of Mykolaiv Oblast said in a video I posted a few pages back, that RF were already digging artillery emplacements ranged on Kherson. Hopefully they bring up all the new GMLRS & take them out.
Putin has declared martial law in the four recently annexed territories
Putin has declared martial law in the four recently annexed territories
Does that actually make any difference?
^^ A bit more to it than that though. From the Beeb:
As part of the decree, President Putin announced three additional levels of heightened security inside Russia.
The highest level applies to Russia-annexed Crimea and other areas near the border with Ukraine, such as the regions of Belgorod, Kursk and Krasnodar.
The dam is 30m high. A breach, and the resultant drop in water, may cause problems regarding the accessibility of cooling water for the ZNPP which is situated on the shore of the lake.
Pondering if this is the precedent to the US mid terms, the Iranian missiles arriving and then being operational and an attempt to completely flatten Kherson all happening at the same time.
I'm assuming the missiles sent by Iran that they haven't sent, will be tracked every metre of their journey via satellite.
And no, I'm not into conspiracy theories and thank goodness Ben Wallace is the only grownup in the Govt at the moment.
I don't think we actually have a government at the moment.
Oooh, whats that loud bang? Is it a political train wreck coming off the rails and sliding into the buffers, whilst upside-down and on fire?
C4 news, mid turmoil had a sensible report from the d Dnepro river bank giving scale to the mass of water held back. Its alot.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582794925304729601
The Russian talking heads getting more and more uncertain and concerned. The war correspondent looks ready to break into tears at any moment. Though that didn't stop him from lying through his teeth repeatedly. Shameless.
The anchor Olga Skabeeva strays dangerously close to heresy. She might want to avoid the combo of tall buildings and windows for a while.
On a more serious note, the war reporter mentions fears tye UA will use chemical weapons. In the best tradition of Russia calling out the opposition for something it intends to do itself, that is a bit concerning
Is this Russian action? Maybe a opening salvo. The link to the Faroes was broken last week too...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-63326102
Russia claiming an SU-27 releasing a missile whilst shadowing an RAF Rivet Joint was a technical malfunction
Apparently we are in agreement it was a malfunction but how much of that is playing the incident down
So their planes accidentally fire missiles and accidentally crash in to buildings? They're a bit shit at making war planes aren't they.
If, as now reported, Iranian Revolutionary Guards are now "on the ground" in Crimea, is there now a risk of escalation? I can see Ukraine being very keen to interrupt the supply and use of these weapons, but can't see how they can without a significant risk of the conflict widening.
but can’t see how they can without a significant risk of the conflict widening
I had been wondering this more and more in the last few days – how much further will Putin (and his allies) escalate and push at conventional rules of warfare before NATO has no option other than becoming directly involved? Would it be the destruction of the hydo-electric facility?
NATO involvement? Nothing short of nuclear/chemical/biological.
So are the sudden and mysterious damage to not one, but two of shetlands main comms cables a surprising accident or another warning shot...
The official line is fishing nets snagging the line. I kinda work in the industry. Just had another huge cyber security push to all staff as well.
I've seen the official line...but both connections....at the same time when they are in different locations. mighty unlucky that!