Ukraine

It's a tough pill to swallow, but there is a difference betwen ideology and reality.

As abhorrent as I find his posts, at Least he’s open about being a war ghoul, unlike many of you.

I sincerely hope that isn't aimed at me.

Not sure retaking Crimea will be that easy

I'd say it'd be just as easy (or hard!) as the rest of the occupied territories. Ukraine has the momentum, they've done nothing but exceed expectations so far, I'd say they have a fighting chance of taking Crimea back too.

Not sure retaking Crimea will be that easy

If Ukraine expel Russian troops from the south of Ukraine and permanently knock out the bridge, Russia will struggle to resupply Crimea. I don't know much about the terrain, but I suspect that defending Crimea might be difficult for the Russians, basically any troops or equipment they send there would not be able to retreat back to Russia and would probably be captured by Ukraine. Ukraine would be able to just cut the Russian supply lines then wait for the Russian troops to starve.

The US is sending another $725mn in immediate aid to Ukraine. Mainly weapons but some medical aid too.
A quick summary from the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels is included in the same article
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3189571/725-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Russia still has its veto in the IMF and has used it to stop a joint communique being issued on ending its war on Ukraine.
The chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee issued a statement instead 🙂
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/10/14/pr22357-imfc-chair-statement-forty-sixth-meeting-of-the-imfc
It's high time that these International Committees got to grips with powers of veto and their use in certain contexts, e.g. war and humanitarian crises
The UN and G20 have started the process. The G8 booted Russia out in 2014 (Crimea) and reverted to being the G7

Saudi Arabia has contributed $400mn in humanitarian aid to Ukraine while continuing to offer mediation in all aspects of the invasion

It’s high time that these International Committees got to grips with powers of veto and their use in certain contexts, e.g. war and humanitarian crises

Im sure i read a claim that the power of veto at the UN is tied into lessons from the failure of the League of Nations.

I'll repost this Twitter thread from the previous page. Key point is that Russia has a lot invested in the UN continuing to function, that's why it is so desperate to quash votes that criticize its actions. Having a security council veto gives a lot of power, but also constrains the permanent members quite a lot - they have to avoid being too provocative or the UN will cease to function and they will lose any benefit of having the veto.

https://twitter.com/charlicarpenter/status/1580925601065553921

Yes, that was it I think /\/\ and it wasn’t paywalled for me

I’d say it’d be just as easy (or hard!) as the rest of the occupied territories. Ukraine has the momentum, they’ve done nothing but exceed expectations so far, I’d say they have a fighting chance of taking Crimea back too

Taking the territory isn't the difficult bit, it's holding on to it. I mentioned this on the previous page, but it have might have been lost in the talk of zombie-maggots 🙂
Let's assume that Ukraine recaptures its entire territory and has forces in the 45,000 sq miles that Russia had previously "annexed", with Crimea being 10,000 sq miles of that total (Wales is ~8000 sq miles for context). The Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean regions all border Russia, what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?
Whether the world likes it or not, negotiation in some form or another will be needed, which is where China and the SCO is key (see the previous page).
In 1973 Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsular (I'm ignoring the Golan Heights/Syrian aspects for brevity). Egyptian forces invaded the Sinai in a surprise attack during a cease-fire and, to cut a long story short, were eventually beaten, with Israel advancing to within 100km of Cairo.
A clear victory but Egypt holds the Sinai to this day, following negotiations at Camp David in 1978, because Israel recognised the logistical difficulties of defending the Sinai against an Egypt who wouldn't give up and who only had to cross the Suez Canal.
There are differences obviously; the Sinai is essentially de-militarised now, whereas the whole point of the Crimea for Russia are their military air and naval bases but that will need to be worked out

Having a security council veto gives a lot of power, but also constrains the permanent members quite a lot – they have to avoid being too provocative or the UN will cease to function and they will lose any benefit of having the veto

The Russian Federation is only at the UN because it seemed natural at the time. They took the seat occupied by the Soviet Union (USSR) on its break-up, but that could equally have been Ukraine or Belarus as the surviving founder-members of the USSR.
It would be an interesting twist if the biggest wielder of the UN veto was displaced by Ukraine

Let’s assume that Ukraine recaptures its entire territory and has forces in the 45,000 sq miles that Russia had previously “annexed”, with Crimea being 10,000 sq miles of that total (Wales is ~8000 sq miles for context). The Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean regions all border Russia, what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?
Whether the world likes it or not, negotiation in some form or another will be needed, which is where China and the SCO is key (see the previous page).

You could also look at in terms of the length of frontier to be policed/defended, which makes things look a little different. Seems just as sensible a metric to me. Area is relevent if it is populated by revolting natives who have to be subdued, but it is not clear which areas that will apply to after the war.

The Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean regions all border Russia, what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?

Fast track entry to NATO would sort that.

what size of permanent force would you need to achieve security?

It depends on what you mean by "security". Crimea is basically an island with a narrow peninsula joining it to Ukraine. The Ukraine-Russia border is going to be heavily militarized for decades to come, so Crimea would be about as secure as the rest of the border regions. Ukraine would obviously station anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles along the coast so the Sea of Azov would be closed to the Russian navy and air force unless a formal peace treaty was signed. Same goes for the Sevastopol naval base- it will be ringed with Ukrainian anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles so Russia will have to abandon it as a military base even if Ukraine don't capture it. Basically, given the magnitude of Russian losses, it would be 10 or 20 years before Russia was militarily strong enough to invade Crimea again.

The security problem will be terrorist attacks or sabotage against Ukrainian military facilities. My guess is that Ukraine will have to give Crimea the status of an autonomous region within Ukraine to defuse opposition to Ukrainian rule. In other words, make it better for Russian leaning citizens to live as part of Ukraine than to live as part of Russia. Russia gave citizens of the occupied territories Russian passports, but then refused to allow them to flee to Russia when the Ukrainian counter-offensive started. Most of those people would probably be easy to convince that being Ukrainian is better than being Russian. If Ukraine can manage that, it will be very difficult for Russia to sustain an insurgency in the recaptured territories.

By all means Chewy let’s hear your views but try and read the room.

Not sure the two are compatible....

If "the West" gave Putin the option of an Idi Amin retirement somewhere to give him an off ramp, would that be enough for Ukraine?

I doubt he'd take the offer, and doesn't deal with what happens to Russia afterwards either

If “the West” gave Putin the option of an Idi Amin retirement somewhere to give him an off ramp, would that be enough for Ukraine?

I am absolutely certain that Ukraine would be perfectly fine with Putin living out his final years in exile if that meant Russian troops left Ukraine and there was a proper cease-fire. It'll never happen because Putin won't accept it. Why would he?

200 HIMARS and enough ammo 👍

If putin was to accept a peaceful retirement elsewhere, who would replace him?

Ukraine seem to launching another major offensive.

https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1581193980670537729

Looking liking a determined Ukrainian push in Kherson

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1581205848587587584?t=wac4fAVixNGLN7ijojoKdw&s=19

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1581202472097701888?t=KVSxod3CfYi8Tu5dixVHfA&s=19

Certainly lots and lots of chatter about major offensive in Kherson. Reports of up to 60,000 Ukrainian troops. Not quite the 5:1 ratio that is normally cited, but given the discrepancies in terms of equipment, support, morale, training and leadership, I'd expect the on the ground effect to be more akin to a 5:1 advantage. Expect the UA to be in the outskirts of Kherson very soon..

200 HIMARS and enough ammo 👍

200 HMMWVS aka Humvees (High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles)??

At what point will ukraine be able to start taking ground just by doing a tiktok video that says "we're going to go there tomorrow" and then sending one fat bloke with a flag, and some people to clear up the abandoned tanks?

Fulcrum in the air on CAS according to the twitterarti.
Apparently looking to secure the dam, to use as a crossing then encircle Kherson.
Wont be fun for the locals caught inside, or the beleaguered Russian forces, any conscript must be crapping themselves whilst looking for a way out.
Kremina still being probed, or bypassed as a route to sevetdonesk as well.
Hopefully mass surrender will take place to save lives and infrastructure, stupid stupid stupidity from Pootin.

Fulcrum in the air on CAS according to the twitterarti.

What's fulcrum and CAS?

@shermer75 A 'Fulcrum' is a MIG29 - WIKI

IE A Russian developed fighter from the late 70's

CAS = Close Air Support

EDIT - I am not knowledgeable, just a few minutes ahead of you in the internet search...

Ok thanks! 🙂

Am I allowed a little light amongst the shade…
Our volunteer leader, the 21yr old responsible for sending 3 vans, a 4x4, and three ambulances, as well as tonnes of aid to Ukraine is back there next week to attend a wedding.
Ramaz and Zhana - Georgians🇬🇪 In Ukraine helping the volunteer effort are getting married on the 30th of October. As we have another ambulance going down the village group thought it would be nice to send a hamper of the most British stuff we could:
Marmite, Cheddar, biscuits, tea, Hook Norton or Chadlington ale (our local Brewery’s) etc.
Please any ideas would be gratefully received as I’m thinking it will be condiment and jam heavy.

Fray Bentos tinned meat pies? Highland Shortbread?

Yes!!

Personally I'd skip the Fray Bentos.  I used to be a fan back in the day, but they are a shadow of their former glory. Filled with a watery gravy and very little meat.

How about, Melton Mowbray pork pies, good quality bacon, a bottle of single malt, posh crisps, after eight mints?

Edit: Crumpets, black pudding, clotted cream, Bakewell tart.

Hob nobs and fry's chocolate.
Tonnocks tea cakes to get them addicted to those Scottish foil packets

Kendal Mint Cake
Twiglets
Mini Cheddars
Digestives
Tomato Ketchup

Percy pigs, all day long

A French colleague used to take home large variety bags of Hula Hoops for his Kids whenever he was in the UK.

I thought they were a global 'snack', but it seems not! - Hula Hoops Wiki

Is there something like a Go-Fund-Me page to donate cash/Items?

Proper crisps.

Stilton.
Cornish pasty goodness.

Amazing ideas thanks-
Bentandbroken that’s a lovely idea but no there’s nothing but I’m happy to buy on anyones behalf, as long as it’s not too spendy.

Blackjacks Fruitsalads and shrimps (“penny” sweets)

Hula hoops are from Hawaii, no?

irn bru

stoats oats bars.
With the bonus the entire Ukrainian army will become dependant on them and hence profit!

Wonder how much the unrest in Irann will effect future shipments of drones & weapons to Russia

the new Iranian drones have been used pretty quicklyby Russia

Ride from Kharkiv, Ukraine 14 oct 2022

https://imgur.com/gallery/P2XNMKo

While we're talking cycling... Ilya, a Russian triathlete, took a train to Murmansk and then cycled 150 miles to Kirkenes in Norway to avoid mobilisation. Google maps doesn't consider that you might want to cycle 250 miles north of the Arctic circle and the option is greyed out 🙂

Belgorod Oblast (Russia) seems to be in the news this week:
An electrical sub-station was destroyed causing power-cuts

A residential block was struck; the Russians say by Ukrainian shelling, the Ukrainians say by a Russian missile misfiring

"Volunteers" in the Russian mobilisation turned their weapons on one another killing eleven and injuring another fifteen. Ukraine said that religious comments towards Tajikistan volunteers was the cause

And the Belgorod submarine, largest in the world, has popped up in the Arctic Circle. An RAF Poseidon P8 allegedly intercepted a message that the sub had technical problems but I can't confirm that bit

Elon Musk, who was switching Ukrainian access to Starlink off on Friday because it was making a loss, is now continuing to provide the Starlink service to Ukraine

And the Belgorod submarine, largest in the world, has popped up in the Arctic Circle. An RAF Poseidon P8 allegedly intercepted a message that the sub had technical problems but I can’t confirm that bit

It took them 30 years to finish that build. I would suspect that it is an absolute heap of junk.

Maybe Elon got slapped wrists for being a huge defence contractor with the US and having talks with Putin. allegedly

Maybe Elon got slapped wrists for being a huge defence contractor with the US and having talks with Putin. allegedly

I would hope that he got a lot more than his wrists slapped. I read that Ukraine forces had been left high and dry during an offensive by terminals being turned off. That gets close to treason in my book 🙁

Yep Elon's behaviour recently has indicated that he's thrown his lot in with the Russians

That gets close to treason in my book 🙁

It's a dick move for sure and he's a weapons grade bellend but it's hardly 'treason'.  He's not Ukrainian.  He's been playing both sides in this war.  Whilst Starlink has undoubtedly been a huge help to Ukraine, his naive 'peace plan' for Putin's war has made him a poster boy for Russian nationalists and given them a propaganda gift.  Elon being Elon, self publicising and trying to be edgy and relevant.

Maybe someone has told him very firmly that it's not just Russia that has tall buildings with dodgy windows.

gobuchul
Free Member

It took them 30 years to finish that build. I would suspect that it is an absolute heap of junk.

Not enough brackets

Not enough brackets

ok, that's worthy of a s****

The military was being funded from the Patreon on the YouTube build channel.

gobuchul
Free Member

It took them 30 years to finish that build. I would suspect that it is an absolute heap of junk.

Not enough brackets

Posted 3 hours ago

REPLY | REPORT

leffeboy

Full Member

Not enough brackets

ok, that’s worthy of a s****

Someone needs to explain this one to me! 🙂

I don’t get it either 🤪🤣

It took me a minute, but it is good.

It's a reference to a certain youtube series, that is popular in these parts, which has been going on for an inordinately long time, and involves some fabrication.

I've been watching TraumaZone on BBC iPlayer, a 7 hour documentary by Adam Curtis about the fall of the Soviet Union and subsequently of Russia. Some random observations:
1. I hadn't really understood the mind-numbing extent of corruptoion and looting that went on, and the breakdown it led to. It's astonishing that they managed to get 2 tanks together, never mind an army.
2. Chechnya was supposed to be a way to save Yeltsin and was also used by ultra-nationalists and various gangsters to increase their power.
3. As Russia was invading Chechnya, the Queen was visiting Moscow.
4. Ukraine was as corrupt as anywhere else.

So it seems that maybe Putin thought that the MO from Chechnya (show up with a load of tanks and blow everything to bits) would work in Ukraine, and that nobody in the west would much care, just as they hadn't cared about Chechnya. Hasn't quite worked out like that.

It’s a reference to a certain youtube series, that is popular in these parts, which has been going on for an inordinately long time, and involves some fabrication.

To be fair to Binky, it isn't a heap of junk but it might just take 30 years and there are a LOT of brackets

. I hadn’t really understood the mind-numbing extent of corruptoion

I worked for a private aviation company- all the jets we managed were owned by Russians. I mentioned how odd this seemed to go from a communist regime to multi millionaires/ billionaires buying luxury jets to our maintenance director. He had spent several years working in one of the former soviet republics and gave me a lesson in the corruption, bribery, intimidation that went on.

and that nobody in the west would much care, just as they hadn’t cared about Chechnya. Hasn’t quite worked out like that.

See also Georgia.

To be fair, we hadn't cared about those places, but I guess the difference is that Ukraine had gone through a lot of pain and turmoil to align itself with Europe

https://twitter.com/petshopboys/status/1581727937065545728?s=21

To be fair to Binky, it isn’t a heap of junk but it might just take 30 years and there are a LOT of brackets

Due to be finished (or the build at least) early next year as they only have the instruments and a small bit of trimming to do (as long as Nick doesn't get any more ideas) then it's back to Escargo!

as they only have the instruments...

Which they are redesigning from scratch as far as I understand rather than using existing units.  Breath not being held

There is a thread for Binky, this one is Ukraine and it's a bit more serious.

Russian Iranian drones hitting Kiev this morning. Differing reports on numbers making it through aa defence systems.
In any video footage they dont appear that fast. I wonder if the ukr could shoot them down en route witj jet fighters. They are big delta winged things. Maybe having constant air cover over Kiev isnt viable, or they would rather have fast jets to aid frontline troops

Maybe time for some local actor to take out the Iranian drone factory at source.

given kyiv must be stacked with AA there must have been a lot of drones

I’ve been watching TraumaZone on BBC iPlayer,

It is very interesting and put together well. Also somewhere in iPlayer is a programme with Gorbachov... a long watch but also very interesting too.

Maybe time for some local actor to take out the Iranian drone factory at source.

The only player in the region who could do that is Israel and they won’t because they won’t upset the Russians

given kyiv must be stacked with AA there must have been a lot of drones

They are supposed to be quite difficult for modern air defence which has become optimised towards jets and helicopters.
They are very low flying and have relatively small radar profiles plus minimal heat signatures.
Best weapons are the WWII AA guns as opposed to modern missiles. Whilst they have some AA guns I dont think that many.

Is this all Pootin has left to launch long range attacks on Kiev with? (with the exception of nuclear).

Thise drones look pretty small to me. I've flown deltas at around 60" span and they'd be a bugger to hit.

Bit bigger than 60", 4mtr x 3mtr roughly. But plod along at 110mph.
From wiki appear to be pre programed dumb bombs.
One problem is Russia has allegedly ordered 2500.
Low radar X section and low thermal emissions make targetting acquisition hard.
Sound like the need for a high level ec3 awacs platform and a half dozen A10s. Plus WW2 listening stations, and a map room with a few plotters with snooker cues and a box of quality street green triangles, thats a joke btw

The Iranian Shahed 136 drones sound as if they are quite noisy, I wonder if an acoustic homing device would be feasible? Or, as above, listening stations and AA shrapel rounds. Fighter jets may be too valuable and not ideal; Ukraine apparently lost a MiG-29 that flew through the debris after destroying one.

If you want a glimpse into the modern corrupt Russain life watch the film Leviathan

I saw a headline from some Israeli news site this morning that suggested that Israel may be feeling less cautious about upsetting Russia now that Russia is using Iranian hardware against Ukraine. That might be more the opinion of the site than the Israeli government though, I didn't read the article.