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If trolling was an Olympic event, Ukraine would have the gold medal nailed on 😂
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Looks like we can put all that debate about how it happened to bed..
If trolling was an Olympic event, Ukraine would have the gold medal nailed on 😂
I have to say the commemorative stamps and yesterday's cake are a new standard in trolling at all levels.
Along with the other railway, this seems a very timely and thought through action. I await the next few days as Ukraine had now proved that 'pauses' are deliberate, and strikes on targets are carefully targeted, strategically planned and orchestrated to time. I fully expect a significant move - perhaps to cut to the southern coast/Sea of Azov and basically leave Russian troops to walk home with no heavy equipment.
They seem to be following my plan, so, advance to Melitopol next 😉👍
And so the Russian response is again predictable and deplorable.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1578714111973773312?t=wBUhXsYTlnKzDchzN58rPw&s=19
Substack blog from two Im not familiar with, but claims to have made contacts with a number of Russian 'elites' to gauge opinion from inside the tent at that level.
The expectation is of a long war, and in some quarters further escalation. Although there are immediate comments giving examples where the tendency to always escalate didnt happen.
https://faridaily.substack.com/p/putin-always-chooses-escalation
Farida has worked for Meduza BBC, Russia, RBC, and currently has stuff publised in the Telegraph and Moscow Times.
Maxim has stuff in the Moscow Times, Forbes RBC
Picked this up via Max Seddon.
yep. been predicting the power station is the most likely target. cause an accident. more denialable than a tactical nuke. similar outcome
I think a boat may be more likely. A truck would struggle to carry enough explosives for such a big bang.
You could a lot more in a boat/barge.
There is some evidence that it may have been a boat bomb. There’s footage from CCTV showing the truck driving over the bridge, and at the same time there’s what looks very much like the bow wave of a boat coming out from under the bridge span then there’s a massive explosion. The truck theory implies a suicide bomber, which doesn’t seem likely, but a boat drone loaded with a couple of hundred kilos of HE is perfectly doable.
Here’s a grab of the moment the truck drives over the bridge, I’ve added a marker around the bow of the possible/likely boat as it appears, a second or two before the explosion.
But dolphins 🤷♂️
Sobering read
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578535556061233152?t=bSbMTECIK4P5DYANr4fhcQ&s=19
@funkrodent It isn't the arch bridge that has been damaged it's part of the "slab on column" construction on the approach to the arch bridge. Also where the road deck is ramped down so it isn't far above sea level, an ideal location for explosives placed below.
I don't think Ukraine would want to destroy the arch bridge as that would potentially block the shipping route from Mariupol out to the Black Sea which I think they would want to leave viable.
I wonder if that unmanned vessel near Sevastopol was supposed to be under the second carriageway of the bridge.
It was almost certainly a missile attack. Any boat trying to get near the bridge would have been sunk.
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1578739145421168642
Sobering read
An utter waste if human life and our planets resources, for absolutely no gain.
It was almost certainly a missile attack. Any boat trying to get near the bridge would have been sunk
Quite possibly but That guy saying he can see the explosion starting there is being debunked in the replies
https://twitter.com/rtombs/status/1578741590784294912?t=OlsMbZGtlIUGJO_SAeKh-Q&s=19
Missile would be most likely but those underwater drones don't seem an impossibility
I wonder if that unmanned vessel near Sevastopol was supposed to be under the second carriageway of the bridge.
Ah my mistake, that one was found back in September. I'm still tending towards an explosion from below.
But dolphins 🤷♂️
Dolphins have been used by militaries since the Vietnam war.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/whales/etc/navycron.html
No idea what did for the bridge
Rumours a while back this made it into service
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-have-a-stash-of-domestically-developed-ballistic-missiles
Seems off topic today, but was shown this earlier that some might want to read
A fairly audacious sting operation conducted by Ukraine in Belarus. Going back a year or two.
Careless smoking 🚬
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1578766501284573184?t=GoisIelfU-VFTh2zaCAAlw&s=19
Ukrainians seem to be Degrading Russian logistics and resupply lines while their own troops rest & regroup after big advances .
Another week or 2? Before Ukrainians star making advances again into increasingly undersupplied & demoralised Russian lines
I've just turned on TV.
Channel 5 is showing "A bridge too far".
😆
This article from The Drive has a lot of the video links, including the one my previous screenshot is from. There’s some great trolling going on there as well!
Sabotage was to blame for the downing of Germany’s rail network on Saturday, the country’s train operator said, after vital communications cables were cut in a “targeted and malicious action”.
Vlad's minions are busy boys. Germans calling for coordinated NATO response to protect critical infrastructure..
EDIT - though I should add that it is not proven that external actors are responsible. Very convenient timing though.
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1578772731218526209?t=mdLagSwCDYx5yi2PBr-KNg&s=19
More rumouring from a different quarter
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578800235543146496?t=zMz5r7PgM9l9tZYcNr3UpQ&s=19
^^^or some real 4d chess from Xi? Encouraging his mate to do something incredibly stupid, then sweeping in to pick up the pieces.
China has nothing to gain from a nuclear conflict. They want to own the world not destroy it.
CountZero
Full MemberThis article from The Drive has a lot of the video links, including the one my previous screenshot is from. There’s some great trolling going on there as well!
OK, I know they've had some good coverage but it still seems completely weird that it's the drive. I'm always expecting Matt Farah wearing ridiculous sunglasses, driving an MX5 while talking about the war
Another week or 2? Before Ukrainians star making advances again into increasingly undersupplied & demoralised Russian lines
Could be, but why waste your own troops when you can basically starve them out/let them run out of supplies/ammo/heating over the cold cold winter...
Because momentum.
Could be, but why waste your own troops when you can basically starve them out/let them run out of supplies/ammo/heating over the cold cold winter…
Because cold,hungry undisciplined troops could exact a nasty revenge on the civilian population.
Another week or 2?
You don't want to rush in and over extend, get isolated etc. Consolidate your position and soften the opposition first.
Regroup, degrade, advance.
Or could just be mind games, say two weeks, advance in one.
Because momentum.
No one cares about that weird faction of the labour party any more 😉
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
There was animosity during Stalin's rule between the security services and the red army. Ultimately the army prevailed, Beria was executed.
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
General Sergei Surovikin is now commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, which is not a rumour.
He has a reputation for inviting other officers in for a chat that doesn't end well and I foresee senior Russians texting the Ukrainian helpline
Germans calling for coordinated NATO response to protect critical infrastructure
Is that the NATO that Germany haven't contributed to fully, defending Germany against cable thieves?
It'll be nothing to do with being seen to act strongly on the eve of elections in Lower Saxony where the Green Party has polled double the Green's previous share of the vote.
Network Rail would need a NATO hotline
Network Rail would need a NATO hotline
Network Rail need a rocket up the arse, but we digress....
Because momentum.
No one cares about that weird faction of the labour party any more
Boy,the political threads are gonna blow your mind
Some rumour mongering about a purge going on in Moscow
General Sergei Surovikin is now commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, which is not a rumour.
He has a reputation for inviting other officers in for a chat that doesn’t end well and I foresee senior Russians texting the Ukrainian helpline
When I read that first bit last night, I was kinda hoping it might be the start of Putin lining up his scapegoats to use as an off ramp but now I have my doubts 🙁
@thols2 so it was just entirely coincidental that the missile struck as a fuel train was passing (and hadn't got held up anywhere) that could then cook the rail bridge?
And they wasted two missiles on the road deck instead of directing one to the railway?
Because if it wasn't coincidence then that's a hell of a risky plan to rely on cascading to a passing train.
so it was just entirely coincidental that the missile struck as a fuel train was passing (and hadn’t got held up anywhere) that could then cook the rail bridge?
It's a fair point, the rail bridge was the real strategic priority.
Could it be plausible deniability?
Then again that would entail knowing the truck was going to be there too..
Could be they wanted to get the road first and then follow up with the rail. Spread the impact for propaganda purposes?
And they wasted two missiles on the road deck instead of directing one to the railway?
Two missiles? Where does it say two? Hardly wasted, when in one strike it destroyed the road span and seriously degraded the rail span. Having done it once, all that needs to be done is let Russia spend time and money and resources repairing it, then lob another missile or two at it and wreak havoc all over again.
so it was just entirely coincidental that the missile struck as a fuel train was passing (and hadn’t got held up anywhere) that could then cook the rail bridge?
And they wasted two missiles on the road deck instead of directing one to the railway?
Because if it wasn’t coincidence then that’s a hell of a risky plan to rely on cascading to a passing train.
1. Sometimes coincidences do happen, so it's not impossible.
2. Ukraine will probably have U.S. reconnaissance satellites, human observers on the ground, and drones watching the bridge. It's quite possible they timed the strike to hit when they observed a fuel train.
3. We don't know how many missiles they fired. There is a hole in the roadway that looks like a missile punched through with a delay fuse to explode under the deck and that blew the deck off the foundations. The rail bridge seems to have a different structure so it's possible that it was also struck by a different missile, but the damage isn't obvious because of the burning fuel train. Or they may have used an air burst fuse to set fire to the fuel train. We just don't know.
Still think its a blast from underneath the bridge.
Takes out one of the Y shaped support sections. Bridge lifts with the concussion blast wave. Comes back down onto thin air. RHS support box is still there, so roadway slithets sideways into the water.
The fuel trucks go up seconds later as shrapnel blows them open
Unmanned drone boat and satellite look down from space to coordinate the train happening to be there
Is that the NATO that Germany haven’t contributed to fully
What does that mean exactly? Do you mean they haven’t been spending as much on defence as the UK and USA would like? Remember, for historic reasons, Germany have been claiming to be spending on “defence” only, and pressure on them not to spend on “attack” capabilities has been long standing. And not all the higher spend of UK and USA is on capabilities aimed at fulfilling NATO commitments… especially true of the USA. The lower budget of German military is arguably more focused on capabilities that can be used to help defend other NATO states, especially those close to Russia geographically.
Depends on how you work the number.
Dantsw - China don't want any long war, period. They have a big internal problem unwinding poisonous debt from their internal housing/building projects, and large companies going bust. If/as is Putin is causing a world recession that impacts them as it's harder to get thro' this without pain, and the internal stability of China via economics. They'd be 'ok' with a swift takeover, but this is dragging on too long already, and they're unlikely to be impressed
Yeah good point, a good portion of they money we're now having to spend on bills and mortgage payments would have gone to China for manufactured stuff.
Lots of people very certain that it was or wasn't a truck/boat/missile/careless smoking
The sections underneath the water are the bits that would really help confirm!
If it was ACTAMS then max range is 190 miles
That'd be just about reachable from Ukrainian front line
Speed of missile is 2685 mph
So that's 4 minutes from firing to hit target, either excellent timing (with real time targeting via satellite- possible?, or spotters in area ) or just very lucky to get the fuel train at that point (how well do Russian trains run to schedule -you wouldn't want to risk it targeting my morning commute, always late!)
Wonder how much Russia really knows or whether they are speculating too , which makes it a headache for them defending not being 100% certain what caused it
Occam's razor says lowest tech option, so Truck bomb?!
Both governments seem to confirm that
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1579026254887809024?t=JlJOp3K4yiMtZkzm5OKu1Q&s=19
But then there are reasons for both sides to downplay the sophistication of the attack
Also truck bomb raises question of whether suicide bomb or driver was unaware & triggered remotely, in which case huge fluke to cross at same time of train, if it was truck then driver must have known
Is that the NATO that Germany haven’t contributed to fully, defending Germany against cable thieves?
What does that mean exactly? Do you mean they haven’t been spending as much on defence as the UK and USA would like?
I'm aware that NATO contributions are open to political and accounting debate, however the fact is that 2% of GDP was agreed in 2002, it was agreed again in 2006, again in 2014 and again when Trump threatened to withdraw in 2020 if countries didn't contribute as agreed.
In June 2022 Chancellor Scholtz finally announced a €100bn increase in the military budget and to meet the 2% target. To answer your points:
Germany hadn't honoured the 2% NATO agreement for a decade until his promise a few weeks ago. We'll see how that pans out in reality
It isn't what the US and UK want necessarily, it was a NATO agreement
I'm not sure how you have a defensive capability, within the bounds of current tech, without an attacking capability. An example is the Ukraine and its use of western weapons, turning them from defence to offence
I've seen it suggested that trains often halt there for some time. If that's the case then split-second timing wouldn't be required.
If it was ACTAMS then max range is 190 miles
As I understand those missiles, that's the officially stated range for fully guided firing. The true maximum range will vary a bit depending on conditions. For example, if you fire it from the top of a mountain, the range will be increased. They can actually be fired further than the guided range, but once the fuel runs out, they become an unguided ballistic missile and will drift further off target the further they travel.
Taking the Turing test to the next level.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1579016732869419008
Apologies this has been posted before, but for anyone that missed it the first time round.
Brace yourself for the Comrade Hitler edition
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1535582101621420032?t=fwqlKxxRQfBFIAXKLgJ0NQ&s=19
Quite how this compares to Commando Comics im not really sure
timba
Free MemberI’m aware that NATO contributions are open to political and accounting debate, however the fact is that 2% of GDP was agreed in 2002, it was agreed again in 2006, again in 2014 and again when Trump threatened to withdraw in 2020 if countries didn’t contribute as agreed.
The 2% is an agreed aim, it's not a requirement. And with good reason, since as you say it's wildly open to accounting and rationale. Frinstance, when the UK agreed to increase its "defence spending", what it mostly did was move a bunch of spending that wasn't in the defence budget into it. Largely veteran welfare, pensions, etc, and lots of fudgery (since a ton of this stuff sat in DWP and NHS spending). The US already did this- basically everything that can possibly be classed as defence spending, is, plus tons that shouldn't because it's one of their best pork barrel spending methods.
And of course even if it is directly relevant defence spending, not all of it's at all NATO relevant, or NATO-useful. The US inland coastguard for instance is of little value in the north atlantic. Whereas those nations with borders with Russia inevitably have a much higher direct contribution. And the 2nd biggest spender by %, Greece, is mostly spending as a direct response to the 6th biggest, Turkey, with most of their strategic and tactical planning focused on defending against that fellow treaty member and presumed ally. A chunk of Turkey and Greece's spending is directly detrimental to NATO but still it goes in the 2%.
So, rather than try and make a real formula that could accurately identify whether spending is actually of value to NATO, AND then try and enforce it across all of the members with all of their different opinions and priorities and budgeting shenanigans, which would be basically impossible, and even if it were, would still be unenforcable, NATO has settled for the "aim for 2%".
Main TV tower in Moscow seems to have been carelessly smoking too..
https://twitter.com/i/status/1579153820349001730
The 2% is an agreed aim, it’s not a requirement
In 2006 2% was a pledge. The global financial crisis in 2008 led to 2% being amended to an aim at the 2014 meeting in Wales. By 2017 the largest economy in Europe was contributing just 1.2% to NATO, at a time when only five of twenty-eight NATO members contributed 2%.
Yes, there are creative accounting practices but these are accepted by NATO, they are open to all and politically it makes sense for everyone to use them
The US is a different case because it's outside of Europe and has interests elsewhere, e.g. Taiwan. US GDP is similar to the total GDP of the rest of NATO, but it spends an amount equivalent to 2/3 of the total NATO budget on defence, i.e more than the expected 1/2. Some of this is dual-purpose spending on capability that can be used either for NATO or in other regions, e.g. satellites and integrated ballistic missile defences e.g. at Ramstein in Germany and another being built in Poland and can be legitimately counted as contributing to NATO.
I understand your position and I'd agree that NATO funding is as clear as mud and "creative". For Germany to request NATO help with cable thieves is IMHO a step too far, although I understand that the timing was bad for the German Chancellor and I don't suppose that he expected to receive help 🙂
Just watched the remastered Blu Ray of Threads in preparation for Vlad's next move.
timba
Free MemberIn 2006 2% was a pledge. The global financial crisis in 2008 led to 2% being amended to an aim at the 2014 meeting in Wales.
TBH that's often stated but you won't find it in the riga summit declaration...
Not convinced it's a single truck bomb, if it was what the hell was it to lift two concurrent road decks but not the ones running parallel?
Missiles? Maybe. But they absolutely did not hit that train with one, if they did it would be in the water, end of. What possible reason would they have for an air burst when they can just hit it? You get the same effect but the added bonus of a great big hole.
Like I said, it seems like an odd thing to hit the road and just hope that debris cascaded onto the train to ignite it. That's Hollywood shit right there. Occams razor says if they knew the train would be there then they knew how to hit it at the same time.
The alleged truck driver's passport shown by the Russians is apparently a photoshop of a sample shown on Wikipedia.
https://twitter.com/AndriiLuchkov/status/1579191454093934592
^^ Looks like that is a prank?
Based on an old Sam Hyde meme or something?
Apologies if I'm wrong!
^^ Looks like that is a prank?
Russian propaganda always looks like it's meant to be a prank. Russia is humiliated by the bridge being attacked, it was a symbol of Russian imperial power and the attack was on Putin's birthday. They don't want to admit that Ukraine knocked it out with one missile strike so they are making a pretense that there is a network of foreign agents undermining Russia from within. The propaganda doesn't have to be convincing, it just has to send a signal to Russians that the official line is that it was a truck bomb, not a missile.
I agree with you but I really do think this is based on an old meme to be honest mate.
A genuine prank rather than Russian misinformation/ incompetence. This time anyway.lol
A genuine prank rather than Russian misinformation/ incompetence. This time anyway.lol
Quite possible, but just the fact that there's doubt about it shows how shoddy Russian propaganda is.
With no special equipment I managed to pause the cctv footage on the first frame when the over exposure from whatever has exploded occurs and both the car and the truck are still clearly visible and untouched. To me this has to suggest that neither is the source of the explosion. However, if I can see that then surely someone official has too.??
TBH that’s often stated but you won’t find it in the riga summit declaration…
I'm not going to read it just now 🙂 🙂 The word "pledge" is used on the NATO website for 2006 and "aim" later for 2014, but if that isn't correct then my apologies
There's a jazzy infographic about halfway down that illustrates both 2% and 20% here... https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/the-two-nato-targets-which-countries-are-hitting-the-mark/
There's no doubt about the fact that Germany committed massively to NATO when the Warsaw Pact was a wall-thickness away, since the wall fell that contribution reduced massively (understandably).
Some German politicians have become unnecessarily reliant on Russian energy while rowing back on defence spending. This has given Russia a financial filip and a pressure point that's been applied during this war, just as Germany's NATO allies and the EU warned.
I'm going to suggest that we stop this thread drift into NATO budgets and I'll try to rein my thoughts in whenever Germany is mentioned 🙂
Allegations were made public yesterday that Arne Schoenbohm, head of the German cyber-security agency, is being investigated for his alleged contacts with Russia.
The intelligence oversight committee said, "These accusations must be decisively investigated"
With no special equipment I managed to pause the cctv footage on the first frame when the over exposure from whatever has exploded occurs and both the car and the truck are still clearly visible and untouched. To me this has to suggest that neither is the source of the explosion. However, if I can see that then surely someone official has too.??
Yes, military analysts pointed that out fairly quickly.
It wasn't a boat because the scorch marks aren't coming from under the bridge. Something punched a hole through the deck. Consistent with a missile with a delayed fuse so that it punches through the deck and explodes underneath, blowing the deck upwards. Ukraine will be promoting the truck bomb theory just to screw with the Russians.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1579206314185850880
If something exploded underneath, ie bunker buster time delay missile, or a boat exploded underneath then the explosion radiates from ummmmm underneath in both scenarios.
It wasn’t a boat because the scorch marks aren’t coming from under the bridge. Something punched a hole through the deck. Consistent with a missile with a delayed fuse so that it punches through the deck and explodes underneath, blowing the deck upwards
So there should be scorch marks underneath, but there aren't any. The train seems to have been ignited by flaming debris, which also tends to point to something above the deck
Hasn't N Korea been testing ballistic missiles this week?
Too slow 🙂
That train must have been stationary too, otherwise it would have travelled some distance past the point if explosion before coming to a halt.
looks like the artic lorry had a few tons of ammonium nitrate fertiliser (so a home made truck bomb) on it. Explosion was too big for a 500lb ATACMS round. Interesting as it also explains the sparks/glowing debris raining down just after the explosion...Also
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1579142059075985410?s=20&t=Zhw4m0plWJZdJLKumbjITw
Sums up the difference.
Ukrainian forces somehow carry out a precision attack on a vital supply bridge.
Russia launches missiles at civilians.
Sums up the difference.
Ukrainian forces somehow carry out a precision attack on a vital supply bridge.
Russia launches missiles at civilians.
Yup
