I suspect that everyone with shooty-things knows who didn't/couldn't have done it, and by implication who did
US Embassy in Russia asking all US citizens to leave Russia immediately whilst commercial options are still available.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/us-embassy-russia-warns-americans-leave/index.html
Talks about dual nationals in particular, presumably prone to mobilization.
I’ve no military training.
However I’m fairly confident the instructor shouldn’t stand there or grab that…
Bad practice for sure but I like to think that was just drilling rather than live fire.
US Embassy in Russia asking all US citizens to leave Russia immediately whilst commercial options are still available.
Or maybe Russia is getting ready to close it's borders? I've been wondering why they haven't already
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575177015082496000?s=20
I’ll try and find a source for that, seems as much a political message as military aid.
Edit
The U.S. will provide an additional $1.1 billion in aid to Ukraine, with funding for about 18 more advanced rocket systems and other weapons to counter drones that Russia has been using against Ukrainian troops, according to U.S. officials.
Since the funding is for contracts for weapons and equipment, it is aimed at helping Ukraine secure its longer-term defense needs. It could take a year or two for Ukraine to get the systems. The U.S. has used Pentagon drawdown authority to provide weapons more immediately, and another announcement for that Defense Department aid is expected early next week.
I think they’re referring to NASAMS - anti missile systems, but I could be wrong 🤷♂️
US DoD website https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
If you click on "Releases" at the top of that list you'll get other news
Definitely 18 HIMARS then 👍
I've been trying not to get too excited about Lyman until there are confirmed reports, but it is looking good for Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/brucewaynesaunt/status/1575128928771084291
Reading the Security Assistance list and the Washington Post article (both linked above) it's apparent that the backs of the many White House sofas are coming up empty and this kit will need to be built first.
I'd imagine that the brand-new stuff will stay in the US with used kit swapped-in to Ukraine, simply because a) used kit works and b) it's a lot simpler to sort warranty problems in Kansas than in Kherson
I suspect that Russia will continue to make substantial contributions to the Ukrainian arsenal in the interim
has anyone seen articles about how ukraine is dealing with all the pows? it must be a logistics nightmare.
lots of focus on captured kit, I've not seen much on captured soldiers.
lots of focus on captured kit, I’ve not seen much on captured soldiers.
No, and I've been looking for it for a while. No indication of numbers nor whether there are red cross visits. There was a report yesterday saying they were going to try and arrange for 15 min phone calls with their families every few days but that's it. On Twitter there was a french 'ex military ' person claiming mistreatment of Russian POWs bit he seems to have been discredited for various reasons. I would at least have expected something from the Red Cross but Ukraine seem to be super in control of information
And to be clear, I don't expect there to be widespread mistreatment. It's just that no information is a bit surprising
Ukraine need to set up a text hotline for Russian soldiers.
Simply text 'defect' to 7890 and we will ensure safe passage to a safe haven.
Calls cost 10rubles plus your standard network charge.
Terms and conditions apply.
They have essentially done that AFAIK.
It’s just that no information is a bit surprising
The Geneva Conventions say that PoWs “must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.”
In March UKR hadn't got to grips with this and was using videos of POWs as propaganda. The use of social media contravenes the rules in the obvious way, but also because in Russia being captured could be seen negatively. It was a minor violation rather than a war crime and served no useful humanitarian purpose because it doesn't show PoW conditions generally
It's clear that both the UN and Red Cross consider Russia to be worthy of investigation rather than Ukraine
I’m sure Ukraine are doing their best to follow all the conventions, but there has been so little info released, not even things like numbers captured, or how on earth they are dealing with the processing side of (presumably) capturing so many who they then have a duty of care to treat appropriately
My father was heavily involved in setting up PoW camps in Iraqi hence the interest
What if some random carelessly discarded a cigarette close to the Russian pipelines which supply their Eastearn neighbours?
An “Alternative” viewpoint of how it’s going……….
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/
An “Alternative” viewpoint of how it’s going……….
Google suggests that author is a Tucker Carlson regular…
And the linked website states
Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.
Uh huh
I’m sure he knows his stuff, but with those men by him I’m not sure he’s being straight up.
An “Alternative” viewpoint of how it’s going……….
He’s a mate of trumps ain’t he?, seem to remember trump wanted him for a post in Europe somewhere but was blocked as macgregor is a right wing nut job so I’ll pass on the alternative opinion
In fact, this doesn’t make sense.
but now, thanks to the recent failure of Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kherson region, they’ve reached horrific levels that are impossible to conceal. Casualty rates have reached 20,000 killed or wounded a month.
That paragraph contains a link as a source which is dated to before the Kherson counteroffensive https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-war-tipping-point
I’ve no doubt the Ukrainian casualty rates are awful.
There’s this
Russia already controls the territory that produces 95 percent of Ukrainian GDP.
Which cites this article https://carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/09/underachiever-ukraine-s-economy-since-1991-pub-47451
Which I’m not seeing that 95% figure for (skim read if any wants to point out something obvious)
And going by this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisions_by_GRP
Isn’t correct even if I could find it.
There was some other cited claims in there that didn’t didn’t seem to tie up but I’m passing on digging any further.
The American Conservative publication is akin to 55 tufton st producing a pamphlet and spouting their shite online
Am I missing something or is that article a load of bollocks?
Douglas Macgregor, Col
Our resident troll posted about this guy a few months back, along with a video from the former weapons inspector guy turned nonce who - like MacGregor - is an occasional RT pundit.
People with damaged credibility will often say absolutely anything in exchange for roubles.
Am I missing something or is that article a load of bollocks?
No, I’d say you’ve understood it perfectly! I wasn’t aware of the authors background, but not surprised!
Looks like Lukashenko is upping the ante in support of Putin. ISTR he has a fairly flimsy grip on power and his military have been very reticent about getting involved. I hope they mutiny and this sparks the end for Putin's sidekick.
It also seems from twitter that the complete encirclement of Lyman is tantalisingly close. Can't wait to see the talking heads on RT explode with rage when it's confirmed.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1575488935513333761?s=20&t=xhcnTUWXHeyk4qUJbzWuMA
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1575571421786316800?s=20&t=xhcnTUWXHeyk4qUJbzWuMA
Early, unconfirmed reports coming in that Ukranian forces have completed their encirclement of the area around Lyman, all the men and materials the Russians poured into there over the last few weeks to shore it up are now trapped including quite a few 'elite' units, Wagner group fighters etc.
Still a lot that could happen but we could be about to see one of the biggest mass surrenders and captures of equipment of the war so far.
I’ve heard Yampil Garrison has fled, and UA have taken Stavky to the N of Lyman.
RF still hold Zarichne which could be used as a staged withdrawal, but it would definitely be contested and a rout.
Still a lot that could happen but we could be about to see one of the biggest mass surrenders and captures of equipment of the war so far.
I'm not sure Ukraine have finished country what they captured in Kharkiv yet !
Counting even
The RT faithful are revolting...
Margarita Simonyan, RT editor, discussing the botched mobilisation, "They're infuriating people, as if on purpose, as if out of spite. As if they'd been sent by Kyiv,"
Novaya Gazeta Europe has revealed that the redacted paragraph in the mobilisation order is for a call-up of 1,000,000 conscripts. Officials denied this
Ukraine need to set up a text hotline for Russian soldiers.
Simply text ‘defect’ to 7890 and we will ensure safe passage to a safe haven.
Calls cost 10rubles plus your standard network charge.
Terms and conditions apply.
https://twitter.com/SlavaUk30722777/status/1575728759142985732?s=20&t=pH-QmKaRGhgEyB1bwP4svw
Interesting read 👍
Excellent article on how wars end.
Great article, thanks for posting!
I'm also, for the first time since the war started, entertaining the idea that Putin will use nukes. It seemed beyond likelihood before but now seems entirely possible, for all the reasons so well explained in the above article. Very sad and scarey times
Something on Radio 4 now about Ukraine having a huge amount of rare earth metals. Russia now in control of 20% of Ukrainian resources. Started 15 minutes ago.
Something like 2trillion $ of rare earths mostly in the Donbas region!
Vlad would have to be pretty confident that Ukraine wouldn't and couldn't respond to a WMD attack with a like-for-like response.
There were nuclear weapons in Ukraine for years - now removed.
Some Ukraine scientists, engineers and military will have been involved in the Soviet NCB programs and Ukraine has had some time to put together a response package.
If Vlad detonates a weapon on Ukraine soil, he and he band of nutters will have to be pretty confident that something like a dirty bomb wont be used in a major Russian city.
Once Vlad starts scorching the earth of Ukraine, the people of Ukraine will have F-all left to do other than kill as many Russians as they can before they die, whether they be POW's, invaders in Crimea or kiddies in Moscow.
A response attack on mother "Russia" will be war porn for the Russian hardliners, but the hard liners aren't driving the shitty tanks or in a western air defence shooting gallery or seeing sons and father's conscripted (and being trained to kill and given guns).
I think Ukraine (and the west) need to give the Russian military a way out - a way of retreating back to Russia, declaring victory but most of all decapitating United Russia.
Driving a wedge between the fighting military and the political/spying cabal might help to progress regime change - there is no dialogue to be had with Vlad or his GRU thugs, but soldiers on a battlefield seem to have shared experience.
There doesn't seem much to be gained by further humiliating Russia's military (give them a good hoofing, though) - a sore looser is much more likely to come back for a second go - let them retreat and feast on their politicians and secret services.
I think Ukraine (and the west) need to give the Russian military a way out – a way of retreating back to Russia
Russia has always had that way out. All they need to do is retreat back to Russia.
There doesn’t seem much to be gained by further humiliating Russia’s military
They've humiliated themselves. Russia did this to themselves, it's not on other countries to bail them out of the hole they've dug.
If putin uses nukes the us have made it clear they will respond heavily. Not with nukes but sinking the black sea fleet and destroying bases sort of thing
And surely that would then warrant a response again from Putin? I doubt anyone believes that the RF are going to retreat back to Moscow. This is just another move from Putin to get what he wants. He will try and take Ukraine bit by bit.
Excellent article on how wars end.
Excellent article indeed.
I can see Putin going small scale nuclear if he's backed into a corner. All the "experts" seem to think Ukraine couldn't/wouldn't retaliate in kind, but NATO would decimate Russian flats and bases.
There doesn’t seem much to be gained by further humiliating Russia’s military (give them a good hoofing, though) – a sore looser is much more likely to come back for a second go – let them retreat and feast on their politicians and secret services.
I'd say this was the best but unlikely scenario - defeated Russian military turning on the person/regime who ultimately caused their defeat and losses. Not sure what would fill the void afterwards.
If putin uses nukes the us have made it clear they will respond heavily. Not with nukes but sinking the black sea fleet and destroying bases sort of thing
My guess is that the U.S. would probably declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine and send Patriot missile batteries (i.e. defensive weapons) to Ukraine, plus declare a total air and sea blockade of Russia rather than actually attacking Russian territory. In other words, Russia can stay within Russian borders, but cannot set foot outside those.
The point of this would be to utterly isolate Russia from any remaining allies. Using nukes would make it very difficult for China and India to stay on the fence. Attacking targets in Russia would alarm China, but China would probably go along with a blockade of Russia and a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
This is a bit like the first Iraq war where George H. Bush negotiated an international coalition, but the point was just to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait, not to invade Iraq and overthrow the regime.
I’d say this was the best but unlikely scenario – defeated Russian military turning on the person/regime who ultimately caused their defeat and losses. Not sure what would fill the void afterwards.
For me there has to be an open door for the knobbers to walk through - "you scoot off back to Russia - don't let the Javelin hit you on the backside - and remove United Russia. We will be making some impressively conciliatory noises about self determination for regions and honouring Russian security."
As you point out - but what would replace the current mob?
I think fighting them back to the border will only bring, at best, a ceasefire long enough for Russia to re-equip, destabilise and plan.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1575854600925896705?s=20&t=ZjCnEIsPPk8PO_sl4QxyOQ
I don't believe thats expected to be approved, more a FU to Moscow
Also, we keep forgetting Ukrainian agency in this, the U.S. and NATO aren't in the war. A Ukrainian surrender would be up to Ukraine, not the U.S. If Russia used nukes against Ukraine, I doubt that Ukraine would surrender and it wouldn't stop the U.S. from supplying weapons to Ukraine. Russia is trying to persuade the U.S. into persuading Ukraine into surrendering, but Ukraine will not surrender. In order to coerce the U.S. into not supporting Ukraine, Putin has to directly threaten the U.S. An overt attack would be suicide, but making empty threats just makes Putin look pathetic. More importantly, China knows that an overt attack would be suicide, so every diplomatic backchannel right now will be urging Russia to just declare victory and go home. There's no winning for Putin in this, China knows this. Going nuclear won't make Ukraine surrender.
I think fighting them back to the border will only bring, at best, a ceasefire long enough for Russia to re-equip, destabilise and plan.
At the same time, Ukraine will be getting even more kit and training from the US.
The HIMARS systems that seemed to be the game changer for Ukraine, that wrecked the Russian logistics.
There were 8 of them. 8.
They are getting 16 more.
What if they had 50?
That time would give a chance to equip with F-16, F-18 and maybe a few A-10's.
E
At the same time, Ukraine will be getting even more kit and training from the US.
The HIMARS systems that seemed to be the game changer for Ukraine, that wrecked the Russian logistics.
There were 8 of them. 8.
They are getting 16 more.
What if they had 50?
That time would give a chance to equip with F-16, F-18 and maybe a few A-10’s.
E
Until Trump or mini Trump gets in. Go ask the Kurds how they did as US "allies". Twice.
It needs an actual victory for Ukraine and a pretend victory for the nutters to last any time.
I think fighting them back to the border will only bring, at best, a ceasefire long enough for Russia to re-equip, destabilise and plan.
Look at the Israel vs Arab wars. Israel knew that defeat meant extermination so they knew that any peace treaty was just temporary. The Arab leaders kept launching attacks on Israel, but their soldiers were generally badly trained and led. The result was that Israel became the dominant power in the region despite having a fraction of the population of the Arab countries.
In the Ukraine vs. Russia case, you have Ukraine and Poland knowing that any treaty with Russia is meaningless, and also knowing that defeat means extermination. Plus Finland and Sweden are rich countries with advanced technology and military industries. Russia really looks like the Arab countries versus Israel, with badly trained and led armies, except that Russia doesn't have the overwhelming population advantage that the Arab countries had. A ceasefire might give Russia time to build an army, but it would also give Poland, Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, etc. time to tool up too. Except that Russia can't rearm without foreign technology, but NATO countries can. My money's on Russia losing in a long-term conflict.
that photo on the bbc of putin cheering the annexation made me feel sick. the amount of death. and they are cheering
You take small comfort that Putin as chief gangster has to live with other gangsters and cannot leave gangster land.
I'd give big odds against Russia using nukes against western countries, but my odds won't be as good against using battlefield tactical weapons; https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-nonstrategic-nuclear-weapons-and-its-views-limited-nuclear-war
The west has, by and large, given up on tactical nuclear options, just extremely accurate conventional weapons that Russia doesn't have
Russia can't retreat currently without giving up Ukraine, which is a loss. The use of tactical nuclear weapons is psychologically awesome, both at home and abroad, but practically not so valuable depending on kilo-tonnage.
I think that to make a proper assessment you need to know what has been promised in retaliation. If the west has threatened to wipe Russia's conventional forces on land and sea out and enforce a no-fly zone over Russia then Russia will be forced to consider the possibility of other nations moving against its interests both within Russia and elsewhere, as well as being Vladimir-no-mates for having pushed that button
Could NATO sink the Black Sea Fleet? I'm assuming the Black Sea has a fair few British and American submarines in it, maybe some French ones? And a few more in the Baltic?
Could NATO sink the Black Sea Fleet?
Yes.
I come from the opposite end of the political spectrum to Tom Nicols, but he knows more about Russia than I do and has consistently argued against escalating the conflict to a nuclear level. I agree that we should just ignore Putin's threats.
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1575886848135667712
Could NATO sink the Black Sea Fleet?
I think within 48hrs NATO could sink every Russian navy vessel, disintegrate any remaining Russian planes, wipeout every factory making anything war related, make some nice firework displays near any munitions dumps and probably stick a business card through the Kremlin chimney on the end of a cruise missile.
Whether that would be advantageous, politically acceptable, environmentally or morally acceptable is of course unlikely.
I actually don't see much strategic value in NATO in sinking the Black Sea fleet. It's spent most of the war skulking, hiding and playing little part in the fight since it managed to lose it's flagship and a few others to an adversary without a functioning navy.
I actually don’t see much strategic value in NATO in sinking the Black Sea fleet
What if the strategy included making me feel considerably happier?
We don’t know the specific nature of the US threats do we? Maybe threatening Russias oil and gas infrastructure would carry more weight? Perhaps that’s why Russia sabotaged NS1/2 pipelines as a preemptive threat? It’s all smoke and mirrors.
What if the strategy included making me feel considerably happier?
You make a fair point. Crack on, it would make me smile too!
We don’t know the specific nature of the US threats do we?
They aren't threats, they are backchannel explanations of cause-effect relationships.
Talk of 'tactical nukes' makes the sound small. Just read they are around the size of the ones used in ww2. So able to level an entire city. So not small at all then. If he's going to do it kyiv is surely the primary target, Russia has already shown its quite happy to inflict destruction on civilian and miltary targets
Talk of ‘tactical nukes’ makes the sound small. Just read they are around the size of the ones used in ww2. So able to level an entire city. So not small at all then. If he’s going to do it kyiv is surely the primary target, Russia has already shown its quite happy to inflict destruction on civilian and miltary targets
They vary but yields can be a lot smaller than the WW2 weapons. 1KT or less (Hiroshima was 15KT). The US has a selectable yield weapon which can go down to 0.3KT. However, even 1 Kiloton is equivalent to 1000 tons of conventional high explosive, not to mention the radiation fall out concerns, so you are right - they are not small! The crazy thing is they would only really be effective against mass concentrations of troops and armour. The Ukrainians know that and avoid such concentrations. Unless Putin really is crazy enough to use them against cities.
Backs to the wall and staring at humiliation globally he could missile some nuclear power stations
Blame it on hamsters chewing through cables, get a similar result. Big no go area amd kill a few hundred instantly and a few thousand over the next few years.
Crop growth is reduced, rare earth materials still intact, just abit clicky.
Assassination with greta thunderberg taking over is the only obvious solution
Assassination with greta thunderberg taking over is the only obvious solution
Can we have her too?
He has plenty more ways to escalate before nukes. Take out under sea communications for europe, "accidental/ it wasn't us" strikes on nuclear plants in Ukraine, take out the new gas pipe coming from Norway, "accidentally" ram satellites in orbit with Russian ones... the list goes on.
He can and will make life very nasty for europe/Ukraine before using actual nukes I reckon.
However tough it gets we can't weaken though, he'll only get even worse over the years ahead.
Oh and those countries that have taken in huge amounts of Russian men fleeing the draft now have "Russian speaking populations" that are being oppressed soon no doubt...
In that NATO tweet I'd have liked then to have added, 'and we've decided that St Petersburg and Moscow are Ukraine', just for a laugh
Back to the fear levels I had back in March/April over this now. The pessimist in me (surprise surprise) thinks that Putin just is not going to stop no matter what, and the West will buckle.
Back to the fear levels I had back in March/April over this now.
Anyone here old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis? How does it compare? My father was twenty at the time but isn't keen to be drawn on comparisons, and my mother was only four and can't remember it
In fairness almost no one knew how close the Cuban crisis got to nukes being fired. It was only later the world found out that there were Russian subs near the American blockade with nuclear tipped torpedoes. One sub came incredibly close to firing too! It's all online and is an interesting read.
As for now, America will know the second Russia mobilises its tactical nukes as they will need to be moved near to the border with Ukraine. Putin also knows they will know.
No point in worrying about it all, leave that to the very clever guys analysing Putin/ the situation in Ukraine on a minute to minute basis.
My mum has talked about the Cuban Missile Crisis a little bit. She was a student at the time I think. I think she said something like "we genuinely didn't feel certain that anyone would be alive in a week's time". I don't think we're quite at that point yet but it feels like some of the steps to that sort of point can be taken more quickly than anyone expects.
Tbf I think we've had a decent run. Tech almost peaked, more stuff at our disposal than we could wish for. You mention leaving it up to the clever people to worry about what comes next. Well if people were that clever we wouldn't be here in the first place. I used to see a mural on a wall often at home. It read: Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it. It was a reference to The Troubles. We never learn.