Results are in on the referendums 95% in favor 150% turn out.
Even Blackadder is impressed.
Sadly I can see that being about right.
Off topic but Richard herrings podcast with Reese Shearsmith that has just been released they where chatting about a play where Reese played Putin in a small part MI5 turned up to the rehearsals and told them to assume they where being phone tapped and only use secure forms of communication. That's cold war paranoid
A declaration of war doesn’t have any real international significance now...
It does internally. President Putin has taken a significant political risk declaring martial law and mobilisation of veterans
A declaration of war is full mobilisation. The majority of Russians have learnt not to be in any way political; take their children and that will change
It does internally. President Putin has taken a significant political risk declaring martial law and mobilisation of veterans
A declaration of war is full mobilisation. The majority of Russians have learnt not to be in any way political; take their children and that will change
Yet he hasn't called for a full mobilisation, despite his speech saying that Russia itself was basically under threat.
Is this because he is now worried of the reaction of the Russian people? Surely this set of announcements changes so much for Russians - from a 'small' military operation to mobilisation, indefinite slavery for those in the military and a growing impact of both sanctions and military personnel not returning / returning with horrific tales...
I would be interested to know what the reaction among 'normal' Russians is today to all this.
My post above should have included this Twitter post.
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1572244815441543172
It is literally his last reasonable play - hoping that declaring Luhansk, Donbas and Crimea part of Russia and setting a 'red line' will dis-unify the West and stem the flow of arms/equipment.
I don't believe the West can back down now.
Putin must be defeated.
Every time he is allowed to get away with stuff, all we do is kick the can further down the road.
They should send as much advanced weapon systems and train as many Ukrainian troops as possible.
Churchill had a point, when he said that we may as well fight Russia/USSR in 1945, as we were going have to fight them at some point in the future.
It is literally his last reasonable play – hoping that declaring Luhansk, Donbas and Crimea part of Russia and setting a ‘red line’ will dis-unify the West and stem the flow of arms/equipment.
I think these messages are for his internal audience and setting out that it's the wests fault they're losing ground and the west will crumble etc to garner support for his madness/mobilising.
The west will take no notice and carry on. The nuclear threats have been made before. And if anything he's managed to unite the west and strengthen NATO.
I think these messages are for his internal audience and setting out that it’s the wests fault they’re losing ground and the west will crumble etc to garner support for his madness.
They always supported his madness, but be interesting to see what Ghirkin etc make of this announcement, I suspect it will be along the lines of 'too little, too late'
So ultimately this move will fail on the military & propoganda front
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1572530228437864449?t=lZyw5zphccCPvkMDjMNnOQ&s=19
Also filghts selling out from major airports in Russia
From the Guardian live feed:
Nearly all flights out of Russia were sold out just hours after Vladimir Putin declared a partial mobilisation of reservists.
Google Trends data showed a spike in searches for Aviasales, Russia’s most popular website for buying flights, after Putin’s announcement sparked fears that some men of fighting age would not be allowed to leave the country.
Flights from Moscow to the capitals of Georgia, Turkey and Armenia, all destinations that allow Russians to enter without a visa, were sold out within minutes of Putin’s announcement, according to Aviasales data.
Within hours, direct flights from Moscow to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan had also stopped showing up on the website. Some routes with stopovers, including from Moscow to Tbilisi, were also unavailable.
The cheapest flights from Moscow to Dubai were costing more than 300,000 roubles (£4,320) – about five times the average monthly wage.
Putin has been threatening the use of nuclear weapons since the start of the war. Is his apparent annexation/nukes to defend new Russian territory plan a ratcheting up of that threat or something more? If it's actually a serious intention then while he may claim he used nuclear weapons defensively it's not like it's going to be accepted internationally (unless he has somehow been doing some secret and very skilful diplomacy/bribing and has a raft of countries ready to recognise annexed territory as part of Russia).
Also Russia has already annexed Crimea, Crimea has been subject to attacks and those haven't triggered a nuclear response so it seems a bit odd to make that a threat for newly annexed territories and not there.
Ukrainian Pravda report that Russian opposition is calling for protests https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/21/7368427/
They also report that para 7 of the partial mobilisation decree is redacted, which relates to the numbers to be mobilised. Hmmmm
So in order to fix the morale and recruitment problems of the military, he's confirmed that once you're in, you may never be allowed to leave, and if you've left you may suddenly be dragged back in. That'll help.
Wasn't Putin, only last week dredging new recruits out of prison to go fight? Why would he be doing this if he had any serious numbers of trained, skilled and equipped army personnel ready to go at a moments notice?
It's all bluff and bluster.
On an unrelated note, are there any oil wells close to the Ukraine border that Ukraine could 'liberate' and be allowed to operate/sell on the open market as part of compensation from Russia?
If Putin had half a brain, he would use the referenda as a way to step back. Actually announce that the Oblasts do not want to be Russian, and withdraw his troops. AFAICS that is the only possible exit strategy for him.
I really can't see why Trump isn't all over this. He could persuade his mate to pull back. Trump will get reelected and Putin will have his poodle back.
Only a slightly better scenario than nuclear Armageddon.
This looks like it might be worth getting behind! I've been following John Sweeney since the war began. His 'VPDO'* catchphrase is becoming a virtual festival of Ukrainian music, comedy, arts etc to coincide with Putin's 70th birthday, to rip the piss mercilessly and to raise money for Ukrainian charities.
*Vladimir Putin, do f*** off!
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1572571305635123202?s=20&t=3mLfrsUdaFR-X5eJSwAx_A
https://twitter.com/lizaclinwizard/status/1572578592810467335?s=20&t=3mLfrsUdaFR-X5eJSwAx_A
Professional soldier thinks that amateur soldiers will probably suck.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571713480822787
I know it all fits in with the putin narrative but did anyone hear that ‘ interview’ this morning on R4 I think it was former Russian defence minister it was properly scary, threats of MAD (and it will be the wests fault )he was having a proper rant ..R4 presenter completely outgunned this won’t end well will it?
I really can’t see why Trump isn’t all over this. He could persuade his mate to pull back. Trump will get reelected and Putin will have his poodle back.
Only a slightly better scenario than nuclear Armageddon.
Because he's a non entity on the world stage.
He's pretty much a non entity in the US.
He’s pretty much a non entity in the US
I wish this was true but unfortunately he is still very popular and very has the Republican Party in his back pocket
the videos of people being pulled off the streets to be conscripted in Russia are really quite frightening. i can understand why people are doing everything they can to leave.
I wish this was true but unfortunately he is still very popular and very has the Republican Party in his back pocket
Is he really though? The likes of fox news will certainly sell that story, and drum up that imagery.. But I suspect he's not that popular.
the videos of people being pulled off the streets to be conscripted in Russia are really quite frightening. i can understand why people are doing everything they can to leave.
Flights out of Russia are reportedly sold out.. And allegedly they were costing 7000 dollars per ticket :/
Apparently Finland are blocking everyone trying to escape, especially now that there is a visa ban. It's difficult to know if it is better to do that than to provide an easy passage away from the war for all people fit to fight. I'm not sure that forcing them back to be conscripted is better. I'm so glad I never have to make a call on this stuff. This is when you want proper politicians in place
They should be allowed to claim asylum. If this is not a case for asylum I don’t know what is.
On Radio 4 PM program this evening, there was a report that people trying to leave were being asked to prove they were not eligible for service, so even if someone has a ticket, there's a chance they may get pinched anyway.
Maybe there will be a revolution against putin if his government is forcing people to fight.. Maybe rather then fleeing they should be attacking putin..
I know that sounds crass, but if your going to die in a fight...might aswell die fighting for something.
I know that sounds crass, but if your going to die in a fight…might aswell die fighting for something.
I wouldnt feel overly comfortable as a nco or officer in charge of a bunch of forced "volunteers".
When looking at a venn diagram the "people with guns" and "people who dont want to be here" is not an intersect I would like to see.
I wouldnt feel overly comfortable as a nco or officer in charge of a bunch of forced “volunteers”.
When looking at a venn diagram the “people with guns” and “people who dont want to be here” is not an intersect I would like to see.
**** no. One of the very reasons I hate it when people go off on the national service tangent.
Hard enough leading troops that volunteered for the job sometimes.
It's just awfull. Terrible even.
Those videos of protesters being bussed off is tragic they are blatant in only taking the men well young teens just shows you what living in Russia is like today.
Huge que to get into Georgia apparently too.
I dont think anyone should be worried about nuclear threats, even though he didnt actually threaten to use nuclear weapons, rather a veiled, interpret as you like "All weapons at our disposal", which is probably the exact same as the US administrations interpret as you like "No option is off the table" as used in their dealings with rogue regimes.
I've often wondered what exactly the military would actually do, be that British, US or Russian if a politician gave the go ahead to launch a preemptive strike on another major nuclear armed country, knowing that such a launch would for sure result in just as large a retaliation, aka MAD. I feel that such an order would possibly be ignored.
So possibly the Russian military if they received such an order from Putin, would arrest him rather than follow it.
Flights out of Russia are reportedly sold out.. And allegedly they were costing 7000 dollars per ticket :/
Debatable whether that's noteworthy though. How many empty seats from Gatwick today?
The fleeing Russians should only be allowed to leave via Ukraine.
They should be allowed to claim asylum. If this is not a case for asylum I don’t know what is.
A fair point. Or do we want to turn them back to try and force change from within Russia? Saves us doing it.
No idea what the best "political" solution is.
If Putin wants nuclear missiles to be launched, he'll just tell the personal that NATO have already launched some at Russia. They won't know any different.
Debatable whether that’s noteworthy though. How many empty seats from Gatwick today
Prices went up to 10x usual as they booked out after announcing as flights sold out
https://twitter.com/AnnuKaushik253/status/1572697905181474818?t=NTTwn_ekAaEDeC-uvPUvrw&s=19
Russia has responded by blocking men of fighting age 18-65!!! From flying out
https://twitter.com/storeymoorfield/status/1572693813357064192?t=06GULjghyhjlJ-mNfWg_lw&s=19
Azovstal defenders released from captivity in a prisoner swap, including their CO & 5 brits!👍👍
That's really a huge swap, over 200 people and all of the Azovstal defenders who are exactly the people that Putin said the special operation was to capture. Goodness knows knows how this will play out in Russia alongside the conscription
Excellent Twitter thread.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1572568398969868288
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1572568475461373953
Todays Armchair Foreign Policy prediction
Russia is going to push for a ceasefire, the 300k troops are meant to intimidate Ukraine, Nukes everyone else (with a dose of domestic politics too). The Avostal POW swap seems surprising too. Especially the Saudi negotiated element.
The recent statements on Ukrainian territorial integrity from a number of western countries including France, Germany, and I think Turkey too. Maybe the west is also preparing the ground for negotiations.
China has also called for a ceasefire. Immediately after Putins address too.
Ive no idea what Ukraine and Ukrainians will think of that. Ive no doubt the usual will assume theyre all brainwashed by the Pentagon into dying on someone elses behalf.
Very hard to see Russia ending up with anything other than an incredibly motivated and well armed hostile military permanently sat on its border.
And with a massive dose of irony, theyve almost certainly done more to fuel ultra nationalism in Ukraine than any other parties combined.
Anyone know what Russia got in return for the POW swap? I seem to remember talk there was a political ally of putins who they were lining up as the puppet ruler for Ukraine who was held by Ukraine, and they wanted him released for the British guys would been captured.
I’d be surprised if anything less than a full withdrawal, with reparations will be acceptable to Ukraine, after all the murder and destruction,
The war crimes will have to be answered to
Also, WTF is going on in Iran. But that really would need another thread.
Anyone know what Russia got in return for the POW swap? I seem to remember talk there was a political ally of putins who they were lining up as the puppet ruler for Ukraine who was held by Ukraine, and they wanted him released for the British guys would been captured.
Yeah it was Medvedchuk
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/ukrainian-putin-ally-viktor-medvedchuk-exchanged-for-200-azov-battalion-fighters-zelenskiy-says
The war crimes will have to be answered to
I think there might have to be some pragmatism about that short term as part of any ceasefire agreement. Give it a few years under new leadership and the main players will start to be handed over in exchange for loosening of sanctions and improved trading relationships.
Trouble is, a Russian treaty is worth jack sh*t 🤷♂️, given their track record!
Trouble is, a Russian treaty is worth jack sh*t 🤷♂️, given their track record!
Agree, Assuming Ukraine managed to take back Donbass regions , let alone Crimea, the nationalist majority who buy into zwar propoganda will never be satisfied until it's won back for Russia
I'm wondering whether Russia's 'plan' is to use troops from Kharkiv retreat to reinforce south & east and hold out until troops drafted from this mobilisation and hope they can help hold on to the region's they have.
The question is what will Putin's move be when that fails to work & Ukraine win back more of their country?
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-global-trade-north-korea-8b57aab3bbba02e818b1f4f2972cda7c
Curious statement, presumably balancing out diplomacy between different parties, looks like a plausible denial/lie.
North Korea says it hasn’t exported any weapons to Russia during the war in Ukraine and has no plans to do so, and said U.S. intelligence reports of weapons transfers were an attempt to tarnish North Korea’s image.
Trouble is, a Russian treaty is worth jack sh*t 🤷♂️, given their track record!
I would guess the objective now is to freeze the conflict.
Ive no idea what Ukraine and Ukrainians will think of that. Ive no doubt the usual will assume theyre all brainwashed by the Pentagon into dying on someone elses behalf
I'd expect the Ukrainians would be happy with a ceasefire but only on condition it was linked to a withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied Ukrainian territory. Although I doubt they'd agree to it not including previously annexed areas but that might be one area the West puts pressure on them so that Russian withdrawal from Crimea and parts of the Donbas occupied since 2014 would be part of 'future negotiations' to allow Russia to save a bit of face, allow the West to claim they aren't back-tracking on their commitment to a full withdrawal later (and hope Ukraine doesn't keep bringing up the promised negotiations in the future). So Ukraine would get a little shafted but potentially would be free to build up and train it's military and then attempt to take back the Crimea etc. themselves later (but with less overt NATO support).
As for the alternatives, unless Putin is ousted (and replaced by a more benign leader - which seems unlikely), it's hard to see past their 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy leading to something much more serious like the use of tactical nukes or chemical/biological weapons. Personally I think he'd gamble on the latter as the effects would be much more contained, possibly to the extent it wouldn't trigger a direct response from NATO as it would when a radioactive cloud drifts into Poland etc. if he went with the nuclear option), he might even just repeatedly deny the use of a chemical/biological weapons as it would require much more specialist investigation by Western specialists on the ground to confirm - all of which he would claim aren't impartial and is just another plot against Russia. It would probably mean losing China's support though so would be a last resort (vs his forces being decimated and expelled from Ukraine which would likely lead to his own death).
I just don't see a middle-ground of a long term ceasefire with Russian forces remaining where they are is ever going to fly with Ukraine, especially not now they know that they can successfully counter-attack them and that the Russian army is already severely weakened (which wasn't the case in 2014). It would also likely mean much less foreign investment (with a hostile occupying force in close proximity) so any rebuilding of Ukraine would be massively compromised
That's the problem with opening the nationalism box, it's very hard to keep happy
https://twitter.com/ChrisKimberley/status/1572852449748160519?t=mhTDx5t8XvGDTH26l16phQ&s=19
I’d expect the Ukrainians would be happy with a ceasefire but only on condition it was linked to a withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine is not going to accept any ceasefire that Russia proposes. Russia cannot be trusted, the only reason Russia would propose a ceasefire would be to buy time to regroup and rearm. Ukraine is steadily degrading Russia's army, they have zero reason to accept a ceasefire, it would help Russia and hurt Ukraine.
A ceasefire isn't a peace treaty, it's just a temporary halt in the fighting. The only peace treaty that Ukraine would accept would include Russia withdrawing from all occupied territory, including Crimea, return of all prisoners and kidnapped Ukrainian civilians, plus Russia handing over accused war criminals for trial. Russia will not accept that, so the best we can hope for is that Ukraine pushes the Russian army back to the border and then Russia settles for lobbing the occasional artillery shell over the border just to show the world that they are still there.
The West has cut economic ties with Russia. The first year will be painful, but the world economy will adjust and maintaining sanctions won't be nearly as painful as imposing them in the first place. Those sanctions won't be lifted unless Russia accepts a peace treaty on Ukraine's terms.
Why would Ukraine accept anything less than all their territories returned, all prisoners returned and all civilians returned? They can and will reclaim all of their territories so either Russia agrees and Ukraine gets what they want or they disagree and they pay in blood.
I've read some speculative articles on what the US will do if Russia drops a nuke. Unless they nuke a NATO member then they won't retaliate with nukes. If they drop them on Ukraine then the US will retaliate with conventional weapons but they will likely create a no fly zone over Ukraine and push Russian forces out of Ukraine as quickly as they can using NATO forces. What happens after that I'm not sure.
Putin needs to go. The only way this ends without more bloodshed is a coup against Putin.
https://nitter.hu/raging545/status/1572701490858594304Lads protesting agains those wanting to stop the war/conscription get carted off by police to sign up.
true patriots.
edit: already posted but this website is so bad on the ipad i just get a load of white space where half the posts should be.
Ive no idea what the base video for this is, but with the dubbing it is coffee spilling good!
https://twitter.com/KvotheTheArcane/status/1572744429672476672
they have zero reason to accept a ceasefire
The reason would be to maintain Western/NATO support - the danger for Ukraine is if Russia manage to propose a ceasefire with terms that get a decent level of support from countries currently firmly backing Ukraine. I doubt that would include the US, UK, Poland and some others but it could be enough to fracture the current support, given that many countries would be happy for Ukraine to accept a ceasefire (that didn't include Russian withdrawal from territory occupied in 2014 in the short-term) in order to avert an escalation to nuclear/chemical/biological warfare.
I hope Ukraine does forcibly kick-out Russia from all their territory in the next couple of months but the reality is, no matter how poor the Russian army has been, to do that would need a lot more time & continued/increased Western/NATO military aid (and would incur exponentially increasing Ukrainian casualties the closer they get to the Russian border or into Crimea - areas which will have been massively fortified and more easily supported from within Russia itself) . So unless something else changes (like Putin having an 'accident') it's not going to happen any time soon and the longer things drag on and the worse it gets for Russia/Putin the more chance of them escalating things will be so the more chance of pressure being exerted on Ukraine to compromise over ceasefire terms.
The partial mobilization declared by Putin, could be the end for him.
It doesn't seem to be very popular.
A load of poorly equipped conscripts with a few weeks of training, facing a motivated, well trained and well equipped opponent, could very easily completely collapse. A few weeks holding the line in middle of winter and they could easily just give up and go home.
Lads protesting agains those wanting to stop the war/conscription get carted off by police to sign up.
true patriots.
One of them was wearing a sweater that said 'Russian Army' 😀
You are now, son!
Laughing Man is, Juan Joya Borja
Passed away last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56925999
Ukraine are not going to accept a ceasefire and they aren't going to let other countries pressure them into accepting one. Ukraine knows that a ceasefire would just be long enough for Russia to regroup and rearm, then it would be back to fighting again, except that Russia would be stronger. Better to fight when Russia is weak than when it's strong. Ukraine knows that.
A few weeks holding the line in middle of winter and they could easily just give up and go home.
More likely be executed by their commanders for refusing to fight
The partial mobilization declared by Putin, could be the end for him.
It could certainly be the beginning of the end. If, as it is reasonable to expect, the partial mobilisation mission creeps into a full one and his popularity starts to decline it'll be harder and harder for him to stay in power. As dictators go he has been enjoying considerable popularity from the Russian people, it would be interesting to see what happens if that turns to dislike
More likely be executed by their commanders for refusing to fight
How many troops and how many commanders are there?
Interesting point from Christo Grozev of Bellingcat here:
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572807394585083904
Have Ukraines advances stalled? Not heard of any great gains in recent days.
I would have expected a kind of pause whilst they stabilise the liberated areas and get infrastructure sorted to some degree before building for another move.
Ukraine are not going to accept a ceasefire and they aren’t going to let other countries pressure them into accepting one.
But the reality is they might have to - as good as the Ukraine army has shown themselves to be in defending their country and conducting some recent counter-attacks they will be increasingly reliant on Western military aid to mount and sustain counter-attacks. If that military aid dries up because Ukraine refuses to compromise they don't have much chance of evicting the Russian army. It would be shit if Western support did become contingent on that but lets be real - with the political leaders we have it's not exactly an impossible scenario.
Elsewhere, Ukraine have been making incremental advances in Kherson region, incremental advances towards Lyman, and still using longer range stuff to try and disrupt Russian logistics behind the front lines. But it gets tougher from here - Russia has occupied much of this territory since 2014, hence plenty of time to bed in, and the whole southern area is kind of hidden/protected by a giant lake/river.
Still pretty heavy fighting around Lyman & I think Kherson? but to properly consolidate all the area they've just recaptured will take time , also to rest requip troops etc.
The Kharkiv offensive was a plan worked out and consulted with US & others be nice to think Russia will collapse again shortly on other fronts
Looks like Russia are desperate to send in these conscripts asap so Ukraine can't take advantage of current weakened & depleted troops
Problem for Russia is that current troops must be desperate to be rotated out by now
Have Ukraines advances stalled? Not heard of any great gains in recent days.
They'll be consolidating the territory they recaptured and planning their next moves. It's not possible to keep pushing forward at the speed we saw last week. They've destroyed Russian logistics so the Russian troops will be short of food and ammo, the longer Ukraine starves them, the more desperate the Russians will be to escape when the next offensive starts.
As dictators go he has been enjoying considerable popularity from the Russian people...
His popularity hasn't been great for several years. He was initially very popular with older folk because he raised pensions, but in 2018 he raised the pension age. Women, who retired at 55, had that age increased to 63. He then climbed down to 60. Men, with an average life expectancy of only 67, had to work to 65.
Russia has twice the percentage of pensioners (~20%) of the worldwide 10% average and almost no hope of employment as an older person. He was accused of sliding the pensions news out under cover of the World Cup, held in Russia.
By 2018 sanctions over the invasion of Crimea had been in for a few years as well, although nothing like as harsh as the current round
Opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been almost killed by poisoning and jailed more than ten times in the last decade
Looks like Russia are desperate to send in these conscripts asap so Ukraine can’t take advantage of current weakened & depleted troops
Problem for Russia is that current troops must be desperate to be rotated out by now
Yep, the new troops won't be building up a bigger army, they'll just be rotating out the burnt out remnants of the units that were sent in back in February.
Interesting point from Christo Grozev of Bellingcat here:
Read somewhere last week that if Russia really does collapse into internal strife the two factions best placed to pick up the pieces are Prigozhin with Wagner and the Kadyrovites, essentially 2 warlords with famously brutal private armies, that will get very grim very fast.
The Ukraine advance has slowed but they're not turning down the heat in the South, Kherson is still very much still on the menu. The failure of any of the Russian counter attacks to push them back from recently gained territory suggests the Ukr forces have avoided overreach and have consolidated well too.
UKR will be resting, rotating, resupplying and working to extend their logistics lines. Each advance adds double the advanced distance for the logistics trucks to travel.
I think I read that UKR has regained an area the equivalent of Cyprus in the last month, so only about 46,000 sq miles to go 🙂