Possibly, though probably not full mobilisation. I suspect it will be him acknowledging the plea from the Republics that are being assailed by the Ukrainian Nazis. That as such it is Russia's duty to do the right thing and accept them unconditionally immediately the (positive) result is announced. He'll do this anyway, but he's just trying to look good and play it still (domestically) as Russia protecting other Russians.
See, the next play he has is that the Donbas is now Russian territory and any attack on Russian territory allows him to escalate to Nuclear. It's a big sabre and he's going to rattle it for all its worth, because he knows that even full mobilisation won't save him, and will in fact almost certainly be the end of him.
My concerned-ometer has just risen a little bit (which of course is what he wants..)
Declaration of war to allow use of conscripts to replace losses and allow rotation.
Indeed, though it's still a gamble for Putin - it's one thing to be sending country boys as cannon fodder another to be sending conscripted sons of Moscow, which could cause opinion to turn against him. Putins whole raison d'etre is how he's perceived in Russia, lets hope this would be fatally damaging.
It was an absolute scam, was always going to fall apart.This book, while pretty heavy going at times, explains the whole thing.
Cheers for the link, admittedly I was hoping for a 2/3 paragraph summary but thank anyway 🙃
I'm not sure it will get worse, the military Russians in Ukraine seem to be very much on the back foot.
Economic sanctions on Russia are probably starting to bite now.
Lots of internal Russian politics starting to vocally challenge putin.
It was always going to be a war of atrittion, despite the bloodshed in Ukraine from Russian invaders.
Start of negotiations, Putin knows he's losing and wants to hold on to what he's captured, with threats of nuclear & mobilisation if Ukraine continues its counteroffensive
He knows by now that Russia doesn't have the equipment or the ability to fully mobilise
Bit of a side note but
https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1572150745730002944?t=jlPg9V5B6B73uPnrgHQGWA&s=19
He knows by now that Russia doesn’t have the equipment or the ability to fully mobilise
He only knows what his generals and FSB tell him, which is garbage. He is 100% going to mobilise, Shibu already hinted at it. Although it's going to be termed as a 'partial' mobilisation, just so he doesn't look completely incompetent
It would be interesting to see how much support he has inside Moscow.
With no real opposition to remove him internally and the fact that I don't think he will stop until the mob are at the door pulling him limb from limb. He has made it clear that no one is safe from falling off speedboats or out of windows I'm not sure where he "stops" apart from removed from the bunker.
Forced mobilisation of every male aged say, 25 to 45. If you have served in the army for 5 years then Pootin could basically call up all trained ex army vets.
Must be thousands of them spread around Russia. Still doesn't get around the fact there's no hardware. So probably transport, weapons, uniform /bds, rations., cold weather kit, ammo.etc
Would be back to ww2, backs to the wall desperation measures of running at the enemy with a shovel.
Except they would all be knackered, shoeless, tired, cold, hungry old men by the time they actually got anywhere near the frontlines. If they ever got close. As the ukr seem to be adopting dozens of Russian vehicles daily they will soon have the biggest army in Europe
The other question is who replaces him if he goes. It's not always obvious that there is someone better 🙁
The other question is who replaces him if he goes. It’s not always obvious that there is someone better
It is worrying, but his replacement will inherit a presumably knackered army with no logistical backup, and a crap ton of global economic sanctions, and serious mistrust.
It's not a job I'd want.
Though it’s interesting to contrast that with the intention to hold referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk
The problem with this is that Russia doesn't hold all of these Russian-defined "Republics", so they can't really hold a referendum on something that isn't theirs and that they don't control. Not that this will stop them trying as an act of desperation...
What if they do win the vote? It won't be recognised internationally because there are too many holes in the process. They've already demonstrated that they can't hold these areas and they certainly won't be able to force UKR out again.
The only logical point of these referenda will be an attempt to protect the Russian-appointed political leaders in those areas from the partisans and their IEDs.
Mobilisation won't solve anything, as we've discussed a few times, and the only option is an escalation into WMD and that's the real concern. I won't speculate as to Russia's intentions with WMD, but that's a whole new level of pariah
Are Russian WMD's even operational though?
I think we should assume they are, but it wouldn't supprise me if they misfire in thier own silos.
BBC suggested the referendums were to claim the territory to be "part" of Russia so any attacks there could be used to justify tactical nukes.
Not a cheery thought on the drive home
Not a cheery thought on the drive home
Yep, things aren't getting any better 🙁 (edit: globally that is. Ukraine are proving extremely good at taking ownership of their own fate)
The other question is who replaces him if he goes. It’s not always obvious that there is someone better 🙁
Perhaps, but as he was put there by (or he climbed the greasy pole and then cemented his position with) oligarchs and generals loyal to him then once the money's run out that whole system collapses and you can't just put another head of state on it?
The issue is further down the line, if he goes do you lift sanctions immediately? Do you bankrupt Russia further with repartitions? There's a danger there you repeat the rise of German nationalism in the 30's. Although unlike Germany Russia has natural resources (gas and oil) which Europe would quire happily take to pay for rebuilding.
@MoreCashThanDash They also state that the referendum results are irreversible. Ever.
It's like listening to a 10 year old chanting things like "finders keepers, losers weepers" :-/
What time is his address? I’m nervous, a glimmer of hope about starting a climb down, turkey is saying he is willing to negotiate.
But I expect it will be more threats this time. Probably a mobilisation of some description, which if you believe our press will be of limited benefit and may actually make stuff worse
I can’t see tactical nukes really being of any benefit. Nuking the country you are liberating is surely not going to wash even with brainwashed Russians. I also don’t think it will break ukraine resolve now.
Why hasn’t he assassinated zelensky?
Perhaps, but as he was put there by
I think he put himself there. Since the early 90s he's been manoeuvring himself into position and using people to do it. I'm not sure he is anyone's puppet. I'm also pretty sure he is aware that if he allows anyone to even look like they can take over then other people will use that so he will put everyone else out of the way except those who are a worse choice
Must be thousands of them spread around Russia. Still doesn’t get around the fact there’s no hardware. So probably transport, weapons, uniform /bds, rations., cold weather kit, ammo.etc
He does have troops in Syria, Mali (Wagner PMC) and no doubt a few other places that he's sought to influence. As the Russian commander in one of these enclaves I'd be reporting that I couldn't get back because of sanctions.
Not a cheery thought on the drive home
Russia recently stripped Moscow's 15th Aerospace Forces Army of its S300, S400 and brand-new S500 (if delivered as scheduled) AA systems in another act of desperation. This Special Purpose unit is responsible for the air defence of Moscow and the Central Industrial District and it's dismantling must shirley be part of the calculation to escalate to WMDs
Ukraine shouldn't stop until they've totally kicked the Russians out, and that includes Crimea.
That’s just how it has to be.
must shirley be part of the calculation to escalate to WMDs
Well, this is what happens when you back a dangerous dog into a corner. For all of Ukraines heroics, the whole lot could be wiped out.
I just hope this is all dick waving by Putin.
I still think tactical nukes are unlikely. They are only really effective against large troop concentrations. The Ukrainians are too canny to gather like that. It looks like they only came together as large formations at the very last minute in the recent Kharkiv offensive, probably for that reason. They don't follow Soviet doctrine anymore, giving the Russians less opportunity to gain much advantage from battlefield nukes.
The international condemnation would be enormous. I could see China, India, Turkey et al completely ostracising them and maybe even see them kicked out of the UN and be completely isolated. It's the THREAT of their use that is Putin's real weapon IMO.
I could see China, India, Turkey et al completely ostracising them and maybe even see them kicked out of the UN and be completely isolated.
That will not happen because they don't gain any advantage from doing so. China will probably just stay silence.
For once Chewkw speaks sense, China never "interferes with other states", it turns up to the UN, veto's and goes home. I can't see that ever changing. At best you'd get an abstain out of them.
US state department saying full mobilization (maybe). Its on Twitter https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1572267159530643460?s=20&t=4ZEls_Q75jip790sR6xKsA
" china never interferes" India and Tebet beg to differ so do Hong Kong for that matter.
What time is his address?
Should already have started. Presumably having been made to wait by multiple world leaders earlier hes settled on making the press wait.
Gotta agree with chewkw and TINAS, even N.Korea is a permanent member of the UN; it would good if Russia's veto was removed though
” china never interferes” India and Tebet beg to differ so do Hong Kong for that matter.
Vietnam just stifled a laugh too
Vietnam just stifled a laugh too
They were actually throwing "hang bags" at each others at that time.
Historically, that's what happened in that region and they never really went all out on each others. They all have Confucius influence by the way.
China prefers to have "good" neighbours and to control the regional trades then to get headaches.
What are the chances of the delay to Putin’s address being due to him falling out a 5th floor window?
Are Russian WMD’s even operational though?
I think we should assume they are, but it wouldn’t supprise me if they misfire in thier own silos.
It wouldn't surprise me if a percentage of them don't fly to where they're targeted (I doubt the warheads will explode in the silos but may well do wherever they land), but even if only 10% hit the target, there are still more than enough.
scuttler
Full Member
Nice one jkomo. Any more shopping planned since the tourniquets?
Well, whilst we bought the tourniquets from Poland and delivered to Poland it was very straight forward.
The next big buy was 200,000 water purification tablets, paid for by 3 donors, that was five months ago- and we still haven’t delivered them. I foolishly bought in the uk and delivered in Poland, it was such a nightmare and nearly sent me mental, thanks to Brexit and the Polish red tape.
I can’t face any more big buys, my nerves won’t take it, it’s so stressful being responsible for other peoples money.
The good news is the tabs should be liberated this week on our guys journey, there’s enough to purify 4 million litres of water.
Jkomo......well done dude.
It appears all is not good in the Kremlin. No Putin till tomorrow
Thanks pk
It appears all is not good in the Kremlin. No Putin till tomorrow
Yep, something's def a bit awry
Yup, the independent are reporting that his speech/announcement/whatever is now delayed until tomorrow.
What is going on???
What is going on???
3 hour delay followed by a reschedule to the next day. Whatever it is, it's definitely not according to their plan
nah just making everyone wait and sweat about what he is going to saya
When Putin goes, it will probably happen like this. Confusion, obfuscation, a day of weird silences and mixed messages before some other unhealthy looking Russian geezer pops up on TV saying he's now the new leader
Yup, the independent are reporting that his speech/announcement/whatever is now delayed until tomorrow.
What is going on???
A bad case of Andropov's Cold!
A bad case of Andropov’s Cold!
Ha! Could well be! It was three months from the 'cold' to him being deaded. Hopefully (& I say this in the nicest possible way) Putin won't have anything like that long..
Are you allowed to drink a cuppa while watching?
Standard format for Putin, no?
Invade,
destabilise,
fake referendum,
then claim any fighting in the new 'Russian' annexe is an act of war on Russia.
Always wanted to visit Moscow but that's likely to be off the agenda until well beyond my death.
No chance I will ever fly into Moscow any more. I’ve told my boss that as an ex RAF Officer it’s not a risk I’m willing to take.
I’ve told my boss that as an ex RAF Officer it’s not a risk I’m willing to take.
I'd say that's fair enough
I'm guessing that if Putin does mobilise, he will be able to send in soldiers who are much better trained?
Always wanted to visit Moscow but that’s likely to be off the agenda until well beyond my death.
I know quite a few who've been. Architecture aside, nobody had a good thing to say about it. St Petersburg by all accounts a different story.
But I guess that's off the agenda too!
I’m guessing that if Putin does mobilise, he will be able to send in soldiers who are much better trained?
In theory yes. Lots of ex-soldiers, conscripts, guys with military experience etc.
In reality though it would take months to conscript them, organise, train and equip them (assuming they have anything half decent to equip them with). Then they've the massive logistical issues of keeping them supplied at the front. Something the Russians were struggling with before the UA started to target their supply routes, bases and dumps.
And that's not all, because the issue of morale is obviously a massive one for the Russians. No matter how many troops you have, if they don't want to fight..
Thing is, even if all of that was overcome, time is something that Putin doesn't have. The fact that all the rebel areas are going to hold referendums within days is not a coincidence. Its because Putin now knows that the conventional war is lost. And his only option is to incorporate the Donbas (illegally of course) and then rattle the nuclear sabre.
He doesn't have months to generate a new army. Probably not even weeks. Within the next couple of weeks the UA will start to take significant chunks of Luhansk. This is politically unacceptable for Putin and will cost him more than his job. So whether he declares mobilisation or not, the only card he can play is the 'attacking mother Russia' one
I’m guessing that if Putin does mobilise, he will be able to send in soldiers who are much better trained?
Hes sent all his elite units in already
mobilisation means he has to recruit, train & equip people conscripted into the army, from ages 27-60 as well as call up veterans and reservists
Its a last deperate roll of the dice to try & cling on to the parts of ukraine Russia has taken, but it would take months to deploy any new troops and their effectivenes would be questionable at best, especially if they are shipped in piecemeal without any coordination
Putin is trying to appease the nationalists & Z-bloggers who have been critiicising the kremlin lately
He also cant risk sending in many troops from the 'stans , Russia has already pulled out troops from there and its lead to an upsurge in violence
This seems more likely
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1572297309484122113
the thing is theres more western aid coming, and troops being trained by NATO countries on increasingly better equipment
throwing poorly motivated conscripts at ever more advanced ukranian army is not going to end well (for russia)
I thought he was delaying to purposefully clash with Zelensky at the UN, but on reflection that would guarantee no-one watched Mad Vlad McMad.
Yep, he has declared a 'partial' (read full) mobisation of the Russian army, blaming the West and NATO for this of course
...no general mobilization in the Russian Federation, but martial law may be introduced in some places...
The significance of martial law in Russia is that it's one step below a state of war. From the civilian perspective everything will be run by the military in those places, so no practical change, just a formal decree in the Duma
throwing poorly motivated conscripts at ever more advanced ukranian army is not going to end well
You're assuming that Russia can find eligible people. People will just go elsewhere and pay officials to register them.
the thing is theres more western aid coming
Pres Zelenskyy will broadcast to the UN General Assembly today and he'll be asking for the tools to get this job done, ideally before winter.
Rumours are its 300k troops.
With 150k Mosin Nagants...
So basically Vlad the Mad is sending in Dads Army.
As much as people joke it shows he still isn’t backing down, not good.
But, interestingly, still no declaration of war
https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1572480201401012224?t=JkgtxwG7SY7EveYbZm-eJg&s=19
Not sure what that really means on the ground if Ukraine has 700k+ in Uniform.
I wonder how popular this move is in Russia. The propogandists have been doing an excellent job of whipping everyone up into a righteous fury, but it's very different when they come for your loved ones and send them to the front line.
Presumably these will be used to displace regulars in other theatres. He's a mad old bastard eh?
Im going to take another wild uneducated guess the plan is to defend what theyve currently got.
The Today interview with Markov just now was frankly unhinged.
Paul Rogers (Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford and Global Security Consultant with Oxford Research Group) on Owen Jones is worth a watch, I think he’s been to TyskySour recently too. He gives a nicely measured opinion on what’s likely to happen over the coming months, don’t forget winter’s on it way which too.
Yep, he has declared a ‘partial’ (read full) mobisation of the Russian army
300,000 is nowhere near full mobilisation?
Based on usual Russian inflation of numbers of they get half that I'll be surprised
Considering that everyone who wants to fight for Russia has already had ample time to join up, means any that get called up will be less than enthusiastic
I think this is more significant, anyone joining now will be signing up to fight indefinitely
several 1000s of Russian troops who thought they were going home this autumn now have a winter of freezing, starving and getting blown up to look forward to
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1572474655872630785?t=RWVmlins01oiGatApcjt_A&s=19
Did Putin change the time of his announcement to this morning so that the reservists that have now been mobilised didn't have time to flee during the night?!?
I think this is more significant, anyone joining now will be signing up to fight indefinitely
Yes, I saw that. The goal posts have been moved by quite some distance there!!
300,000 is nowhere near full mobilisation?
Give it time
With 150k Mosin Nagants…
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they turned up with some Khyber Pass replicas of old Lee Enfields.
This article on how civilians/irregulars turned the tide in the Battle of Kyiv is a great read.
With 150k Mosin Nagants…
One per pair, with the other person holding ammunition and ready to take the rifle if/when the person holding it gets shot.
Apparently Russia have ordered ammo & equipment from North Korea & Iran
interestingly, still no declaration of war
A declaration of war doesn't have any real international significance now, as the UN Charter bans attacking another nation. Only defence is allowed, and too obvious to need declaring. Some states require it in their own political processes to authorise military action.
By holding 'votes' and annexing the areas, Putin will claim to be defending Russia and thus get round the UN Charter.
So Russia has only had 5k deaths of its troops that where on the border according to Russian defense command!! so that's 95k troops left of the original number that massed on the border so why the need for 300k more.
How the Russian public buy this crap is beyond me it's almost Stasi levels of control by fear and intimidation.
I can see Serbia getting full of middle class Russian young men in the next coming weeks as Russian familys bribe/smuggle there sons out of the country.
They won't be going to north Korean that's for sure.
This makes sense to me. Annex occupied territories and declare them Russian, state that they will defend Russia by any means necessary (i.e. nuclear) and hope that the West pressures Ukraine to just let Russia keep what it has taken so far.