What do we think will happen (assuming the reports are true) with those forcibly deported out of Ukraine by Russia?
Lots of Russian General vacancies.
I had a tour of the Russian Central Airforce Museum just outside of Moscow when I worked there in the late 90s. The old guy showing us round should us portrait after portrait of heads of the WW2 air force, each lasting a few months until the Russians started winning...
What do we think will happen (assuming the reports are true) with those forcibly deported out of Ukraine by Russia?
They will see the error of their ways and develop a profound love for Putin and gratitude to Mother Russia for all its bountiful blessings.
If they are pro Russia they will be as happy as Larry, if they are not then keep their heads down and try not to make enemies I imagine.
Anyone running Kaspersky antivirus spyware? 🙂
https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1507489583319113737
To add to the Russian tank vulnerability question, there is a very good thread on Twitter from a ex military type (not a member though!) and they claimed that the western tanks have been designed to direct hot explosive gases out of the tank as crew member survivability is an important factor for western tanks at the design stage. For Russian tank designers, they have focussed on amount of rounds they can quickly fire and keeping weight down, not crew member survivability. I’ll try to find the thread.
That’s not really a possibility without sacrificing protection, best way of staying safe is following the rules of the survivability onion.
What do we think will happen (assuming the reports are true) with those forcibly deported out of Ukraine by Russia?
Possibly become hostages for return of Russian PoWs.
I had to Google for survivability onion.
https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/1914083-science-diagrams-that-look-like-shitposts
That’s not really a possibility without sacrificing protection
They have blow out panels. Fully armoured but designed that if there is an explosion inside they fail before the other parts of the ammo storage container including the hatch into the crew compartment.
I guess in theory they would be more vulnerable to an attacker pulling them out but a somewhat abstract scenario which I doubt has come up.
FFS, Russia shoots itself in the foot and the Pentagon takes credit.
For more than a decade, the Pentagon, pinned down in Afghanistan, followed China’s rise as a global power and Russia’s ambitious military modernization program with growing alarm. The consensus in Beijing, Moscow and among some in Washington was that an era of U.S. global dominance was rapidly coming to an end.
But one month into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, senior Pentagon officials are brimming with newfound confidence in American power, spurred by the surprising effectiveness of U.S.-backed Ukrainian forces, Russia’s heavy battlefield losses and the cautionary lessons they believe China is taking from the war.
“Let me put it this way,” said one senior Pentagon official of America’s standing in the world. “Who would you switch places with? Seriously, who would you switch places with?”
https://twitter.com/mike_mazza/status/1507698162508734466
"Let me put it this way,” said one senior Pentagon official of America’s standing in the world. “Who would you switch places with? Seriously, who would you switch places with?”
Shows a lack of understanding of the global stage. Now Putin just needs to find a group willing to carry out AND take credit for making parts of American cities go bang.
Don't rub defeat in the face of someone who apparently just does not care for the lives of others.
Possibly become hostages for return of Russian PoWs.
That's where my money would be as well :(, the end game has to be some land given away rather than return to where we were at the start so time to start putting the bargaining pieces in place. It's amazing the world has survived this long given how big ****s humans can be to each other
I had to Google for survivability onion.
> https://knowyourmeme.com/photos/1914083-science-diagrams-that-look-like-shitposts
That’s got a bit of info missing, probably knocked together by a student, bonus point though for the actual use of an onion 😁
Anyway, here’s hoping the rumours are true about the Russian focus on Donbas, could give them the saving face answer they need, potential reduction in the conflict and hopefully time for Ukraine and others to heal and for Putin to get older
Why is Biden winding up Putin with the Butcher comment? Can't be an accident, but why?
Are they trying to get him to do something that legitimises taking him out?
Why is Biden winding up Putin with the Butcher comment? Can’t be an accident, but why?
Are they trying to get him to do something that legitimises taking him out?
It's just politics, just now, NATO and with that, the US can't really do anything that could escalate this further, bar statements like this, Biden and others will be getting called much worse in Russia and supporting nations.
Why is
BidenPutin winding upPutinBiden with theButcher commentunprovoked invasion of Ukraine? Can’t be an accident, but why?Are they trying to get him to do something that legitimises taking him out?
FTFY.
Why is Biden winding up Putin with the Butcher comment? Can’t be an accident, but why?
Possibly also, in the hope that it permeates into Russian society.
Can’t be an accident, but why?
The "cannot stay in power" is problematic. I know many people, including me, hope someone will give him some lead poisoning but it is an escalation.
I have seen suggestions that Biden going off the cuff remarks and not really thinking it through.
I have seen suggestions that Biden going off the cuff remarks and not really thinking it through.
Thank f++k the orange gorilla isn't still in charge - I'd imagine he'd have accidentally triggered WW3 by now....
I think Biden is just vocalising what a good percentage of the world is thinking.
I doubt it will effect Putin's decisions in the slightest.
I do think that invading Ukraine will be seen as the beginning of the end of his dictatorship in the future though. He's not some great strategist, just a ruthless opportunist and the war has exposed him as such.
Shame so many had and will "have" to die to rid the world of him though.
What can be done about missile strikes on e.g. Lviv? For artillery there's been radar laid counter battery for a long time but if you're launching 50 or 100 km away what can be done? Are we still stuck with the SCUD hunting patrols behind enemy lines of the Gulf War?
I think America has sent Patriot anti missile systems over but no idea if they can take out whatever Russia is using, though I suspect they can given their use in other countries?
No doubt someone will know on here.
Aren't they being fired from a ship in the Black Sea?
I think America has sent Patriot anti missile systems over but no idea if they can take out whatever Russia is using, though I suspect they can given their use in other countries?
Not sure how Patriot compares to Israel Iron Dome (impressive)? Anyone?
I wonder what is the effect of radiation if a Patriot taking out a nuke missile above land? Will the wind just blow the radiation away after the explosion in the air?
Biden should just shut up as he/USA is not in the front line. In the event of nukes, those nations to the west are safe but those closes to Russia will bear the brunt of nukes. Yes, other NATO members might strike back but it will be rather pointless as some cities would have been vaporised by that time. Winning is just an empty gesture.
Not sure how Patriot compares to Israel Iron Dome (impressive)? Anyone?
They are designed for different jobs. Iron Dome is meant to handle pretty close range rockets/mortars whereas Patriot is anti long range missile/air craft. So I think you would want both. The Iron dome could be handy for knocking out the MSLR rockets but would probably fail at the sophisticated stuff since it wasnt designed for it. Might work mind.
However would be a good chance Iron Dome would get overwhelmed by a regimental attack. Its designed and is good for a specific job.
As far as I am aware no Patriots have been sent to Ukraine. Aside from anything else the crews would need training. Hence why there is discussion about providing them with some of the S-300 missile systems (possibly s-400 as well but not sure) from other former Soviet block countries since they already know how to use those.
Aren’t they being fired from a ship in the Black Sea?
Seems to be a mix of sea based, air launched and a few ground launchers in Belarus.
Apologies, appears Patriot's have been deployed to the border with Ukraine, in Poland.
Not sure how Patriot compares to Israel Iron Dome (impressive)? Anyone?
I wonder what is the effect of radiation if a Patriot taking out a nuke missile above land? Will the wind just blow the radiation away after the explosion in the air?
Also things like Scuds are (relatively) slow and (relatively) easy to hit.
Russia has been working on some hypersonic misses which would be nearly impossible to shoot down with a patriot. How ready they are and howany they have I don't know. They have some pretty impressive (on paper) aircraft which have disappointed so far so hopefully the missiles would be similar.
As for nuclear missiles, an ICBM at full speed would also be nigh on impossible to hit, a tactical nuke on a cruise missile probably would be a viable target. I have no idea if shooting it down would cause it to detonate though. They can be quite robust (have a look at 'broken arrows' the amount which fell from aircraft by accident and didn't detonate. 32!)
They used their hypersonic missiles the other day.
This is quite a fascinating thread here.
Some key oligarchs would appear to be fleeing to safe havens.
It's funny that when the sh!t goes down here, we panic about wiping our arses.
When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar - why do you think they want that so bad ..?
What a world we live in.
I think America has sent Patriot anti missile systems over
The U.S. has not supplied Patriots. They would take months to set up and train the crews. Ukraine operates Russian systems so buying some of those from other countries and giving them to Ukraine is the only short-term solution.
I wonder what is the effect of radiation if a Patriot taking out a nuke missile above land? Will the wind just blow the radiation away after the explosion in the air?
The most likely thing is that the missile itself would be destroyed but the warhead would remain relatively intact. In that case, it would just be a matter of collecting it.
Realistically, the worst case scenario would be that it functions as a dirty bomb. There is a sphere of plutonium about the size of a tennis ball inside the nuclear warhead. That's surrounded by an "explosive lens" which needs to be precisely triggered to compress the plutonium and set off the nuclear explosion. It's much more robust than people assume, even if a missile hit the warhead directly and set off the explosives, it wouldn't be precise enough to compress the plutonium, it would just scatter it everywhere. That would leave a mess, but it would over a small area. You would just fence it off and scrape off all the topsoil to collect the radioactive material.
The warhead would not explode in a nuclear fireball. For that to happen, it needs multiple detonators to fire with extremely precise timing. Being struck by a missile or catching fire won't trigger it, it'll just scatter the plutonium core.
When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?
I’m not much of a drinker, but if it’s all going to **** I might want a few stiff drinks first so I don’t blame them.
When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?
Pretty sensible really, sugar has a high calorific value, long life and can be turned into a lot of different type of foods with other long life ingredients.
Also saw the news that the White House have released a statement correcting what Biden said, which gives an indication that there is some workable deal being thought out to end this invasion!
When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?
I panic-bought some icing sugar when the first lockdown was announced, the idea of isolating with no cake didn't bare thinking about!
When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?
Takes me back to when I worked in Saudi.
When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?
As mentioned above, it has high calorific value. Also, in the videos the those fighting over it are older people; they remember the USSR. When there's nothing in the shops you need to preserve every strawberry, tomato and cucumber you can grow at your dacha. Sugar, salt and vinegar are hugely valuable if your economy is properly screwed. Bog roll is the least of your worries!
I'm reading this at the moment - lots of stories of grandmas that stashed sugar and buckwheat etc around the apartment, in case the bad times came back. For Russians, memories of famine and existential hunger are closer than we in western Europe often realise. Even in the 90s there was subsistence farming in some parts.
Some interesting claims emerging as Russia attempts to redraw country borders based on thier view of history - is this the sharks circling?
If you were a country part occupied by Russia, at any point over the last couple of hundred years, now would be a strategic time to seek to 'correct' things.
https://mobile.twitter.com/militaryhistori/status/1508152947913502732
I'm not sure that Russia has much to worry about on that front.
Admittedly they'll struggle to hold on to what they've taken so far, but sunny see any country mad enough to invade them.
Putin is getting a bloody nose, tho
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1507974565670133762?t=lr_NhUJ0GMFWWQj_x199sQ&s=19
When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?
No no no, you see sugar is what you need to make your own "vodka" called Samogen.
"In rural Russia may many people drink “samogon”, Russian moonshine or white lightning. "Samogon" literally means "run by myself,” a reference to its production process. Samogen consumption increased dramatically after Gorbachev launched his anti-vodka campaign and increased further after the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991, when production was legalized but selling it wasn’t. As living standards dropped, people found they could more bang for their buck by drinking samogen than vodka. By 1994, samogen accounted for one of every six drinks consumed in Russia.
Samogen can be made from use tea, milk, bread, rice, potatoes, beet roots and even wooden stools and generally has a potency of between 30 and 50 proof. A typical samogen recipe calls for 100 grams of yeast, 10 kilograms of sugar, 4 liters of fresh milk, and 40 liters of water to be mixed in a washing machines for two hours and then distilled in stove-top vat connected to a pipe that spirals into a bucket."
https://factsanddetails.com/russia/People_and_Life/sub9_2g/entry-5020.html
Lots of poor sods over there go blind over the home grown stuff too, as the ethanol (I think?) isn't always removed properly.
That thread is interesting.
Basically says Russia will pull itself apart with people still supporting Putin.
Military machine needs foreign parts and foreign machine tools so grinds to a halt.
People look to and blame local government for shortages of food and everything.
Local government stockpiles and stops trading with other localities.
People go hungry because they don't know how to subsistence farm anymore.
Political change happens, but its the end of Russia as we know it.
Lots of poor sods over there go blind over the home grown stuff too, as the ethanol (I think?) isn’t always removed properly.
Methanol is the problem, ethanol is the bit you want to keep. There is a web page all about it! (Just found it, no idea if it is talking sense or not.)
wzzzz
Free Member
That thread is interesting.Basically says Russia will pull itself apart with people still supporting Putin.
Was a good read want it? Effectively in a globalised world, having much of the world turn their back on you royally ***** you up.
Globalisation will break Russia. It's kind of like an extreme Brexit bit one that's imposed on you by other countries!😉
You can build a tank... apart from the fact you can't get tiny, seemingly insignificant parts such as bearings for it. Just a few components mate difficult to get our build at home and no now tanks.
(The tanks could equally be cars, gas cookers, fridges.... You name it.)
