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Putin is assembling his most elite troops
Reminds me of the "authentic frontier gibberish" scene from Blazin' Saddles.
Ah but that’s the slowest bit! You’ve done all the interesting stuff and now there’s just a load of identical blue pieces to finish the sky off. Nightmare. Takes ages.
Agreed.
Yet the end feels like it may be in sight.
Colonists leaving Crimea after all this time represents a complete collapse of confidence.
I don't know if this song is Ukraine's national anthem or just a popular patriotic song, but I've heard it, or excerpts from it on loads of Ukrainian video clips. Either way it's incredibly stirring, it knocks spots off our dirge of an anthem. This rendition is fantastic, especially the little lad playing guitar on a stick top right at the end! Makes the hairs stand up on my neck, even though I haven't a clue what they are singing!
https://twitter.com/UkraineStand/status/1569421750324043778?s=20&t=CkblBtZYjJGEcpKT7Y3m_g
Has 'too bloody old' been booted off STW?
No forum posting history on his profile now.
That's a rework of a very old folk song.
This is the actual Ukr anthem, these were some of the troops just hours before they took part in the Kharkiv offensive, gets me everytime.
Has ‘too bloody old’ been booted off STW?
No forum posting history on his profile now
Hope so, although it's prob more likely a forum glitch
Shirley, it can't be beyond the mods to track down the IP and geolocate...
Not going to miss absolute bs like this;
Putin is far cleverer than just about anyone else and very well trained .
https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1569729994502324225?t=n-cFpGyezmRLVsMDRpDDWQ&s=19
Scholz stating that Putin needs to leave Ukraine before a diplomatic solution is conceivable.
This is really impressive stuff from Ukraine. Zelensky will be an utter legend if he retakes the entire country
Zelensky will be an utter legend if he retakes the entire country
Thank **** Boris is no longer around to pop out there and take the credit for it.
Although I suppose Liz could still dip into her own dressing up box for a publicity tour...
TBF to Boris, he was pretty solid and outspoken in support of UKraine. I just can't believe how it's turning out. As long as the Russians keep collapsing, they should be gone in weeks!
Agreed. This is the one thread in which I could post in praise of his actions. Despite his dubious links to Russian interests before this invasion, he did step up and offer clear support for Ukraine as soon as Putin’s intentions were clear.
This is really impressive stuff from Ukraine. Zelensky will be an utter legend if he retakes the entire country
There's still a long way to go and the cost will be high, the fighting in Kherson and Donetsk is much fiercer than Kharkiv
True, if the Russians regroup effectively and dig in...I suppose they already have a more solid base in the Southeast of Ukraine. Unless they can sneak round the back and cut them off?
If the Russians dog in do the ukranians now have the tools to bomb them to bits?
Does anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine? Is it as simple as they want the gas supply to be turned back on? Because, to be honest, that doesn't seem to happening anyway..
Is it sensible to imagine that the Russians will be ****ed with the onset of winter, ie ill-equipped for the weather, lacking reinforcements/replacements, malnourished, poor morale, etc? And surely more people in their homeland will be increasingly aware of what’s really happening?
Ukrainians OTOH will no doubt be up for the fight with better winter gear, equipment etc.
Surely Putin will become the new Napoleon?
I think it is brilliant to watch the Ukrainians go on the offensive as it will be great for their morale and hurt the Russians........however I am not going to celebrate too much yet. I think the Russians knew they couldn’t hold all the ground they had and will regroup and dig in to hold what they have in Donetsk and Luhansk where they have been for years and will be harder to shift and will let Putin keep saying he is achieving his special operation goals. I also think they will try to hold where they are in Kherson and Zaporizhzkia in a bid to protect their land bridge to Crimea and there could be a bit of a stalemate for a while. if the Ukrainians can make inroads here then the tide may turn and make things untenable for Putin. The quicker option would obviously be for Putin to go which may happen yet.
Can anyone tell me how the people of Luhansk/Donetsk and Crimea see things (genuine question)? After so long with Russian influence do they support Russia or Ukraine, as this will obviously impact on what happens here.
Does anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine?
Well, no one has sent modern (I mean currently western built) heavy NATO MBTs/IFVs yet I don’t think? Which is what I’m seeing Germany criticised for. And one of the most advanced artillery systems available is the PzH2000.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-authorizes-production-of-100-howitzers-for-ukraine/
Although Archer looks terrifying.
Unless they can sneak round the back and cut them off?
That looks like the strategy to me - but what do I know?
If the Russians dog in do the ukranians now have the tools to bomb them to bits?
I would imagine large numbers of Russians would use that as an excuse to simply surrender.
The main bonus Ukraine has now (compared with 5 yrs ago), is much better support from NATO/EU, who realise the Putin threat. It's too late to back out, so they may as well finish the job.
Does anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine? Is it as simple as they want the gas supply to be turned back on? Because, to be honest, that doesn’t seem to happening anyway..
It might or might not be connected with Gerhard Schroeder being employed by some of the Russian gas companies at a senior level.
Good article on German military assistance to Ukraine here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html
I read the Gepard anti air tanks are credited for keeping the Russian airforce away from countering the UA Kharkiv offensive. Germans are criticised for not supplying Leopard 1 tanks they have in storage, but no country has supplied western tanks. The Germans have encouraged eastern partners to provide Russian tanks and be back filled by German tanks. I do think Olaf Scholz comes across as a bit hand wringing about this, though that's understandable given past German history in eastern europe.
I especially like the 30 Amorok SUVs
Such are the grim dynamics of Russia’s descent into totalitarian paranoia that any hope of Putin being dislodged from power brings wariness of whatever might follow. There is no successor and no mechanism for naming one. The model is a hybrid of tsarist autocracy and mafia clannishness. Communist one-party rule in the Soviet era had at least some constitutional consistency before it unravelled completely.
shermer75
Free MemberDoes anyone know why Germany has been so reticent to supply arms to Ukraine? Is it as simple as they want the gas supply to be turned back on? Because, to be honest, that doesn’t seem to happening anyway..
TBH it seems to be entirely manufactured outrage? IIRC they've supplied more than anyone except the UK and USA. Some people just seem to like slagging off germany.
IIRC they’ve supplied more than anyone except the UK and USA.
Supplied or promised? That's a genuine question. I haven't followed up on details of aid, but I think one of the criticisms was that Germany was promising a lot, but not actually delivering, whereas Poland was actually delivering a lot more than Germany. Things might have changed since then, of course, but even if Germany has delivered everything promised, other countries are providing much relative to the size of their economies.
Article here about German arms supply to Ukraine:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/13/ukraine-germany-more-military-hardware-counter-offensive
Ukraine singled out the German anti aircraft Gepard tanks as being crucial to their recent victory in khrakiv
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1568978542859325441?t=hcoa5w_LBGD461B-EAWQeQ&s=19
Germany has announced they are sending a further 50
Ukraine are asking for the Leopard MBT as well, but Germany are reluctant ( tho I'm not sure any country is supplying modern MBTs?)
TBH it seems to be entirely manufactured outrage? IIRC they’ve supplied more than anyone except the UK and USA. Some people just seem to like slagging off germany
The issue with Germany is that it has the largest GDP in the EU, followed by France, Italy and Spain.
The first three are seen as having the greatest links to Russia: Germany through the NordStream scandals, France through Macron and Italy through Berlusconi, although support for Russia in Italy had lessened.
Germany's initial offering to UKR was 5000 helmets, which is pitiful for the fourth largest world economy by GDP.
For years those same countries have been under-funding their indirect contributions to NATO (set at 2% GDP in 2006) Estimated 2021 figures put Spain at 1.02%, Italy at 1.41%, Germany at 1.53% and France at 2.01%. Each of those countries had been contributing much less for many years until Trump threatened to pull the US (3.52%) out if countries didn't contribute. (UK for reference has been 2%+ for a decade or more)
Biggest economies + greatest links to Russia + low NATO contributions = something that doesn't sit well
I made the comment however many pages ago that I didn't think that Germany has the kit to send, it still has c100 Tornado aircraft, for example (we got rid of ours in 2019), but what it could do and hasn't is buy kit and send that. Early in the war (April??) the UK bought and refurbished artillery pieces specifically for Ukraine, Germany has hidden behind a programme of promises and training, then supplying nothing until everyone is trained
More dissent from the party line on Russian TV. Just one guy getting hounded by the hawks but the body language to my mind says he wins and their bluff and bluster is paper thin and faltering.
I hope he and others who criticise are OK, but they certainly seem more willing to speak out in recent days. A glimmer of hope that Putin's narrative is creaking.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569870269191229440?t=f1vjYqwFbzNeMChkfOUSeA&s=19
And in other news:
The St Petersburg District Council that called for Putin to resign is likely to be dissolved following a Court Order yesterday
Border guards in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have exchanged gunfire. I don't think that's what was envisaged by one poster here when they considered that Central Asia might wade into the conflict
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been kicking off on their border, approx 100 killed yesterday. Russia's war in UKR has undermined its role in regional security, IDK whether Russia has removed its peace-keepers in the region to duties elsewhere
I started a new thread on Armenia and Azerbaijan to keep this one on topic.
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/armenia-and-azerbaijan/
Border guards in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have exchanged gunfire.
There are a few improbably straight line borders in the Stans. I don’t know too much about how they got that way if anybody happens to know?
is this the start of several countries chosing this moment to settle disputes. feeling like domino's are starting to fall
While Germany could have done more & faster a lot of the criticism is overhyped
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html?m=1
Contrary to popular perception, Germany has delivered significant amounts of arms and equipment to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against the Russian military. In fact, the volume of arms deliveries by Berlin exceeds that of every other country safe for the United States and the United Kingdom. Nonetheless, Germany has faced severe criticism and even mockery for its perceived lack of support to Ukraine and its ill-fated attempts to keep its relationship with Moscow intact. While ultimately positioning itself as a reliable partner of Ukraine, it can be argued that Berlin's communication to affirm its Ukraine stance and explain foreign policy goals has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster.
German materiel support already delivered to Ukraine includes fifteen Gepard SPAAGs, three M270 MLRS, ten PzH 2000 self-propelled guns (SPGs) along with guided artillery rounds, 3200 man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), close to 10.000 Panzerfaust 3 and RWG 90 MATADOR anti-tank weapons, hundreds of vehicles, nearly 22 million rounds of ammunition and a plethora of other equipment including 28.000 helmets and MiG-29 spare parts. These deliveries are soon to be followed by a further 15 Gepard SPAAGs, one IRIS-T SLM SAM battery, 20 laser-guided rocket systems, 43 reconnaissance UAVs and up to 20 unmanned ships. Berlin also contributed at least €2 billion to Ukraine's security capacity building fund with which the Ukrainian government can purchase armament from other countries, including a further 100 PzH 2000s from German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann.
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Also worth pointing out Germany has taken in over a million refugees, second only to Poland
Meanwhile the UK has taken in well under 100,000 with the visa process still denying 1000s
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk has claimed that the Ukrainians have taken Lyman. Important because it acts as a staging post for an assault on both Severodonetsk and Svatove. The latter is apparently important as it acts - like Balakliya did - as a supply dump for the Russians and would also allow the Ukrainians to circle behind the new Russian lines to the east of the Oskil River.
Unconfirmed of course, but if true would indicate that the Ukrainians aren't stopping and are moving into the Donbas proper. Were they to take Severodonetsk it would be massive given its wider strategic importance and the effort that the Russians put in - in terms of men and materials - to take it in the first place!
Thanks for that kimbers.
Yeah, I think one big problem for Germany is that they come across as sitting on the fence, hoping that this will all blow over and they can get back to making money from trade with Russia. I used to be in favour of the idea that Russia and China (and other autocracies) could be persuaded to improve their behaviour by engaging in trade and showing them the benefits of a peaceful international system. I think the West had to try that, but now it's time to acknowledge that it has failed completely with Russia and that Russia needs to be isolated until they prove they can behave like a civilized country. I believe that will take decades and Germany should just accept that things aren't going to go back to how they were.
The other problem is that countries with much smaller economies are contributing much more relative to their economic size. That makes it easy for Ukraine to criticize Germany. Part of that is probably a Ukrainian strategy to pressure the West for more assistance, they were saying similar things about the U.S. a few months back too. Not entirely honest on Ukraine's part but it's hard to criticize Ukraine for doing that given how desperate their situation is.
While Germany could have done more & faster a lot of the criticism is overhyped
Absolutely. @thols2 points out that they did nothing early on, which for many was Crimea in 2014 all over again. Scholtz, Macron and Draghi didn't visit Kyiv until the end of June. Boris, Ursula von der Leyen (EC), Andrzej Duda (Poland) and Karl Nehammer (Austria) all managed to visit in early April.
Germany has displayed poor communication skills and actions leading to criticism that may not be wholly justified. The light man-portable kit was delivered in March, but most of the heavy stuff didn't begin to be delivered until July and August.
Nice to see Germanys contribution laid out like that. I think the perception has been coloured by their risible initial offering of 5000 helmets. But what about Italy, Spain Belgium etc, piss poor! 👎 And France isn’t doing much better either 🤷♂️
I used to be in favour of the idea that Russia and China (and other autocracies) could be persuaded to improve their behaviour by engaging in trade and showing them the benefits of a peaceful international system.
That's an on-going process, it has been since WW2, and it has been quite successful on balance. It did for the Soviet Union, didn't it?
You have to remember that Putin is not Russia. There are plenty of modern urban Russians who were getting used to western comforts (see the ones in tears because IKEA was closing) and they have seen a comfortable life with opportunities. Their views won't go away, and they will be quite clear on how they get it back. So the desire to trade and work with the rest of the world is still there with the people who can. So Putin or whoever else tries to run Russia as an authoritarian isolated regime will always be fighting against that.
That’s an on-going process, it has been since WW2, and it has been quite successful on balance. It did for the Soviet Union, didn’t it?
No, the Soviet Union imploded. It didn't become a bastion of liberal democracy because of trade ties.
Smaller countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan became liberal democracies because they had close relationships with the West and their leaders realized that their countries were much better off as part of a liberal international order than aligning with the USSR or China.
Russia and China have deep-seated grievances against the West. They see themselves as great powers that have been crippled by unfair treatment from the West and their vision isn't to join a U.S. dominated economic system, but to destroy that system and impose their own. Russia is not going to liberalize any time soon, regardless of whether the West agrees to lift sanctions or not.
So Putin or whoever else tries to run Russia as an authoritarian isolated regime will always be fighting against that
From what I understand, the majority of Russians still support Putin. They don't seem to have any intent of becoming a liberal democracy anytime soon.
I dont believe theres any truly reliable information on that.
The prison sentences for opposing the war and much more dont really encourage honest opinions.
From what I understand, the majority of Russians still support Putin. They don’t seem to have any intent of becoming a liberal democracy anytime soon.
Maybe the majority of people, but what about those with influence?
No, the Soviet Union imploded. It didn’t become a bastion of liberal democracy because of trade ties.
You don't think the Russian people's views of life being better in the west had anything to do with it?
Smaller countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan became liberal democracies because they had close relationships with the West
South Korea was a dictatorship up until the 1981 with a further 5 years of slow transition towards democracy.
Taiwan started to transition from dictatorship at roughly the same time but took longer.
Japan is... complicated with the 1955 system.
The "liberal world order" was quite happy with them as dictatorships though so long as they were on the same side.
Wasnt one of the reasons for Germany's slowness to support down to their own internal rules around supplying arms to other countries? Probably sensible given WW2....
I cant find the military flights thread but a Rivet Joint is doing laps of Kaliningrad / Konigsburg atm
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae01d0
Wasnt one of the reasons for Germany’s slowness to support down to their own internal rules around supplying arms to other countries? Probably sensible given WW2….
they were probably conflicted with "giving credence to Russian De-Nazification claims" if their old enemy piled in straight away as well.
I cant find the military flights thread but a Rivet Joint is doing laps of Kaliningrad / Konigsburg atm
Here's an interesting one. Not your usual Gulfstream executive jet. Looks like it has a side looking radar on it. Currently doing laps of the Romanian Black Sea coast.
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=33fd99
What happens to Kaliningrad, Transnistria South Ossetia and all other other littler statelets that Russia has either supported or willed into being will be very interesting now that their much vaunted military might has been shown to be a paper tiger.
Interesting times. The Ukrainian's have been massively successful which is to be lauded.
I wonder where this takes us. Despots don't usually last very long after humiliating military defeats.
I don't think that the Germans, Poles, Swedes etc want Kaliningrad back. They all have historical claims to it but I'm sure it's not going to be moving away from Russia any time soon. It's an artefact from WWII
The other 2 are areas where Russia has deliberately provoked the local status quo with their own land grabbing interests at heart.
Here’s an interesting one. Not your usual Gulfstream executive jet. Looks like it has a side looking radar on it. Currently doing laps of the Romanian Black Sea coast.
Italian Air Force Gulfstream G-550 Conformal Airborne Early Warning (CAEW) aircraft.
More reading here.
Not sure about us having an historical claim to Kaliningrad other than the fact that Sweden once owned most of the countryside around the Baltic. That was, as I understand it, a long time ago and not something that we are looking to do again.
What happens to Kaliningrad, Transnistria South Ossetia and all other other littler statelets that Russia has either supported or willed into being will be very interesting now that their much vaunted military might has been shown to be a paper tiger
Georgia is considering taking back Abkhazia and South Ossetia
They don’t seem to have any intent of becoming a liberal democracy anytime soon.
They also don't have a say in that decision
I think the West had to try that, but now it’s time to acknowledge that it has failed completely with Russia and that Russia needs to be isolated until they prove they can behave like a civilized country
It looks like we've taken some steps towards that. China, on the other hand, might be lot more difficult! Our economies rely so heavily on theirs I just don't see how it could be done
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1569998848847745024?s=20&t=ggpjsXdp6BPDYgOPyc84Yg
At least one of the reasons why Putin is losing his war
Well, this is a fun rabbit hole to go down:
https://twitter.com/adamrangpr/status/1529799570753978369?s=20&t=BbVT7DKP9lAc435fbq5DIQ
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1529800130206978048?s=20&t=zDuwJLMQnMyuENYRTYoDPA
Well, here's a surprise: it was not about NATO after all
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1569965542693376000?t=-ID2JvnjKRAUCVLDUSzRIw&s=19
The "never meets real people" thing is funny, til you remember all those Tory visits to Scotland where the only people David Cameron meets are investment bankers, Theresa May is in a locked warehouse with handpicked employees of a company that have been told to be on their best behaviour, audience plants on Question Time etc. People being arrested for shouting at prince andrew while their assailants get to walk away. All a matter of degrees.
gobuchul
Free MemberFrom what I understand, the majority of Russians still support Putin. They don’t seem to have any intent of becoming a liberal democracy anytime soon.
So, first of all, it's really pretty much impossible to know what the support is, since being publically anti-Putin is a very brave stance. I mean, shy tory syndrome skews things so much here and that's just because people don't want to admit to strangers that they're awful. Multiply by many.
And the other is, what underlines that support? People are fed a constant diet of lies. Yes there's truth or slivers of truth but like anywhere else, the average russian isn't going to be going out and digging through stacks of propaganda or using internet proxies or communicating with the west.
So, we don't really know who supports Putin, and we don't really know who supports real Putin vs fantasy Putin. I don't personally get the impression that we're near a tipping point, but, the history of these things shows that things can move VERY fast, in either direction.
Not really one for tanks n stuff, but this is more of an antique
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1570055263050252288?t=XEZdUbejCcF_qvBzCAISaA&s=19
Just simply looking at the level of gear they are wearing says a 1000 words .
Plate carriers and gucci molle systems fast mag pouches, elcan sighting systems peq boxs Safarilands . its another era from what the average Russian booty is wearing/using.
Yes I saw trainloads of T62’s being shipped to Ukraine some time ago. Since then only one has been destroyed according to Oryz, so I’m not sure how many have seen actual combat?
Plate carriers and gucci molle systems fast mag pouches, elcan sighting systems peq boxs Safarilands
You wot mate?
Can’t quite tell if that’s a list of kit or you fell down the stairs 🤷🏻♂️
Yes I saw trainloads of T62’s being shipped to Ukraine some time ago. Since then only one has been destroyed according to Oryz, so I’m not sure how many have seen actual combat?
I can't find the post, but some of the recaptured places had maintenance depots. In there they found vehicles with non working guns, engines and more. It may be that lots were shipped - and few were useable...
Edit, image fail and it’s a “proper” photo so don’t want to copy and post image it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62888388
Artem said he could hear screams of pain and terror coming from other cells.
The occupiers made sure the cries could be heard, he said, by turning off the building's noisy ventilation system.
"They turned it off so everyone could hear how people scream when they are shocked with electricity," he told us. "They did this to some of the prisoners every other day... They even did this to the women".
stevedoc
Free MemberJust simply looking at the level of gear they are wearing says a 1000 words .
Plate carriers and gucci molle systems fast mag pouches, elcan sighting systems peq boxs Safarilands . its another era from what the average Russian booty is wearing/using.
They're very nearly as well equipped as the average airsofter or nerfer
And so rats continue to leave the ship...?
https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1570137823193317376?t=VAGDNwK5NzDAiYeyyB1EZw&s=19
seems russia has blown up a dam overnight along with the attacks on the grid its clear they are targeting civilians infrastructure to make this winter as hard as possible for ukraine.
scorched earth. have they stopped pedalling the line they are there to save and liberate people yet?
