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we wake to the news that the government is sanctioning three – yes three – individuals and five banks that noone has heard of.
My thoughts exactly. Feeble.
Kiev
I do hope this isn't going to affect Tesco Chicken Kiev's. Supplies were disrupted during the great fuel shortage of 2021. I'm not going through all that again. #sadface
Western sanctions will make little difference - he can just trade with China.
Russia stands to gain a great agricultural and manufacturing resource from Ukraine and there's not a lot to stop them.
Lyse Doucet and Orla Guerin are now both in Ukraine. It doesn't bode well.
The other 2 horsemen of the apocalypse are on their way
☹️
If Kate Adie dusts off her flak armour then we're definitely in the shit.
Glad to see John Simpson news report just now as I thought he retired. Note - I am not replying to anyone but just posting in general because of John Simpson. I like his style of reporting / analysis of Putih.
It looks like CCP (Not the Chinese people) is showing support and probably try to push Russia (CCP is very good at this sort of things) into some sort war to distract their intention for Taiwan. i.e. open two fronts. (Channel 4 news interview with CCP member)
Putin just basically declared war. Explosions in Ukraine. ****ing terrible.
A friend of mine living just outside Kharkiv has just texted and said they can hear shelling.
The question now is how quickly this escalates from a 'local' war into a global one. Personally I hope we keep our troops out of it and just stick to sanctions and refusing to be Russia's laundry service but I just know Johnson will see this as his opportunity to become the Churchill figure he is so desperate to be.
I'm worried.
My friend and her 4-yr old son were evacuated earlier.
How on earth can this be happening other than insanity.
**** Russia.
We have an office in Kyiv, not sure what's going to happen. Hope those guys and girls stay safe out there.
It’s ugly and seems a bizarre thing to be happening in this century.
I hope there’s minimal casualties.
Woke up at 4 stressing about my own petty shit, and have just seen this. Jeez, I really didn't think he was mad enough to actually attack Western Ukraine. And it is madness, he's gone full Hitler, and I fear how this plays out across Europe and the damage he does until he falls like all dictators eventually do.
He's not going to stop with Ukraine is he?
https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1496685246233862152?t=LiL3Y6qSrp6fwwIGVrtWyw&s=19
Trump being Trump
“To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me,” he said
He’s fully mental
Absolutely senseless 😢
What a murderous ****
I've been hesitant to come on this thread, Initially I dismissed Putin's troop positions as a way of driving up gas and oil, getting his finances back in order post Covid. Thinking he would be nuts to invade, but the more I've read up on it, the more concerned I've become.
Now he's actually invading (again) I see this as his long ball game. He's generally always played under hand politics in the past, preferring to blame others or deny any involvement. But he definitely doesn't do anything without reason.
The attempts to disrupt democratic processes throughout the last 15 or so years have never really come to the public eye of how much involvement Russia has - and in some cases I think he genuinely has some success in turning votes (trump/brexit more recently France and Russia). Now that we have a level of political instability in Europe, with COVID and every country having a vocal and large rightwing faction (which I believe he's been stoking), its prime time to show his cards.
I'm sure we will see Russian bots on Facebook for a few months again.
There a ton of resources in Ukraine, he absolutely doesn't care about the people or deaths - my view is that he is long term resource gathering, the real question is why?
the real question is why?
I think he wants to build an empire
if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history
Is that Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons?
Personally I don't think it's empire.... I think that's old Russia thinking, Putin although absolutely dedicated to Russia thinks bigger than that.
I think it's either for financial gain - car batteries etc or my real underlying fear, he preempting the rest of the world with climate change.
Is that Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons?
Yes, that's how I read it
Personally I don’t think it’s empire…. I think that’s old Russia thinking, Putin although absolutely dedicated to Russia thinks bigger than that
You could well be right, however if I was Georgia I'd be thinking pretty hard about defensive strategies right now
Woke up at 4 stressing about my own petty shit, and have just seen this. Jeez, I really didn’t think he was mad enough to actually attack Western Ukraine
What’s he got to lose thou?
He gets lucky and he gets it all or he gets a bit of it.
He can always go back to the negotiating table and negotiate some agreement.
however if I was Georgia I’d be thinking pretty hard about defensive strategies right now
Don't forget large parts of the Baltic's Sweden / Finland who both extremely worried, parts of Asia and places like Alaska used to be under Russia control and we know Alaska is full or resources.
What’s he got to lose thou?
Absolutely nothing - he making more money from the oil and gas price rise than loosing from the 'sanctions' at the moment.
Would full on sanctions earlier worked in preventing this?
While the world was talking, he'd already made the decision to invade and was preparing a ground invasion. He is an utter nut job...in control of a huge nuclear arsenal.
I'd like to see the UK government, all governments actually, freeze the assets and accounts of people and companies linked to Putin. It will not be enough, not now, to stop the war or save Ukraine though and I have no idea what will.
Absolutely nothing – he's making more money from the oil and gas price rise than losing from the ‘sanctions’ at the moment.
Very good point!
Ukraine has massive deposits of natural resources of key metals, is a huge agricultural producer etc etc.
It's not just about two bullied so-called Russian enclaves
It really feels like Boris is doing nothing more than holding Putin's beer right now
Re sanctions, can the world unplug Cougars iPad/disconnect Russia from the internet?
I’d like to see the UK government, all governments actually, freeze the assets and accounts of people and companies linked to Putin. It will not be enough, not now, to stop the war or save Ukraine though and I have no idea what will.
Trouble is they like the money too much, can’t make it too hard.
Would full on sanctions earlier worked in preventing this?
I’m going (with my educated solely by Red Alert head on) with no.
There’s a line of thought that, for Putin it’s now or never.
I’m wanting to find this opinion piece interesting, but a lot of it is what I largely think so that could be flawed. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-ukraine-most-senseless-war-nato-history/
I find it very hard to disagree with the former Soviet dominated states eagerness to join NATO being a consequence of the Russian states behaviour even before Ukraine.
iirc Sweden was “instructed” not to join NATO a few days ago. Although that seems to be a regular occurrence.
A deeply paranoid man that wants an empire and has surrounded himself with yes men after eliminating any dissenting voices is what I see.
TBH you could probably label Trump and Johnson the same 🙁
He can always go back to the negotiating table and negotiate some agreement.
Exactly. Europe is dependent on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas supplies. He's calling the shots here!
TBH you could probably label Trump and Johnson the same 🙁
Maybe, who knows what’s going on In Boris land. But currently journalists critical of Boris don’t tend to accidentally fall out of their apartment windows.
Exactly. Europe is dependent on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas supplies. He’s calling the shots here!
If the choice is paying more (collectively) for our fuel, or letting hundreds of thousands die as Putin rolls over more and more former Soviet States and gets closer to Western Europe, I'm willing to turn down the thermostat and turn off a couple of lights.
If the choice is paying more (collectively) for our fuel, or letting hundreds of thousands die as Putin rolls over more and more former Soviet States and gets closer to Western Europe, I’m willing to turn down the thermostat and turn off a couple of lights.
Agreed. Time to start buying sweaters instead of Russian gas.
Completely agreed
If the choice is paying more (collectively) for our fuel, or letting hundreds of thousands die as Putin rolls over more and more former Soviet States and gets closer to Western Europe, I’m willing to turn down the thermostat and turn off a couple of lights.
Semi tongue-in-cheek mode - we could always do "an Iraq" and liberate some Russian gas fields? Push the Russian border eastwards, not westwards...
Exactly. Europe is dependent on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas supplies. He’s calling the shots here!
Is this actually the case? I read a piece somewhere that said Russian gas supply was not as critical as it seems. I'll try and find it again. IANAE just asking the question.
Semi tongue-in-cheek mode – we could always do “an Iraq” and liberate some Russian gas fields? Push the Russian border eastwards, not westwards…
There’s a minor flaw in that plan, Russian forces would hand us a shoeing before they moved an inch
You never know, Churchill was pretty shit until ww2 this could be Boris's time to shine. Possibly. Maybe. Perhaps. Hmmm.
Had a horrible feeling last night that this morning would see it kick off. Frightening.
Sanctions can hurt ordinary Russians. I work with some lovely progressive people in Moscow and they are shocked and dismayed by this. We could easily see a situation where America says if you deal with Russia you cannot deal with us, there are other precedents for this. My company would be forced to mothball and my friends could be without money.
There’s a minor flaw in that plan, Russian forces would
hand us a shoeing before they moved an inchgo nuclear quite quickly
FIFY
I think it has been said in this thread before, but the sheer scale of the Russian deployment has to be emphasised here. They have upwards of 100k troops in Ukraine or the boarder areas. That is more troops in one place than the whole of the UK army, likely by a factor of two, even if you take into account the Reserves and people that have recently left and can be called back up. That number includes non-combat troops, admin personnel osv, so combat troops is probably about 1/3 that.
The Russians have more tanks there than the UK own by a huge margin (all of which will now be fully maintained because of the exercises) and an air force in place that is on par with the US in a lot of respects. These troops are coming down from a lot of joint exercises and are pretty much at the peak of readiness, whereas our troops have been helping out at Covid testing stations and driving ambulances and trucks.
If the UK sent in troops, IF, it could only send infantry quickly. Tanks would go by train and take a lot longer. Planes could go quicker still, but would lack maintenance and air defence. Troops would be lightly armed, minimal support or ammunition (which would need to come by train/land) and would be outnumbered, what, 4:1 from the start, assuming the UK sent ALL of them.
So yes, a shoeing.
big_n_daft
Free MemberFIFY
They wouldn’t have to, they’d squish us in seconds
Desperately sad. The most we can hope for is that, having rolled up to the border, Putin needs a 'success' in a very limited military campaign for domestic consumption rather than just be seen to back down and lose face.
My feelings are with ordinary Ukrainians this morning rather than Russians who might suffer under significant economic sanctions, though. It's time for Russia to lose access to its markets in the west and for the stolen assets it has placed here to be seized.
If the UK sent in troops, IF, it could only send infantry quickly. Tanks would go by train and take a lot longer. Planes could go quicker still, but would lack maintenance and air defence. Troops would be lightly armed, minimal support or ammunition (which would need to come by train/land) and would be outnumbered, what, 4:1 from the start, assuming the UK sent ALL of them.
I don’t think anyone in their right mind would think the uk would be able to take on Russia. But it’s wouldn’t be the uk would it, it would be uk and nato.
Either way that’ll never happen, ever. There won’t be a 3rd world way fought over Ukraine. If putin is stupid/mad enough to push on and invade a nato country however, I can’t see how nato could turn a blind eye
Did everyone see the comparison of EU Vs UK sanctions? 😕
Think he might not stop until a puppet regime is in place
Time for Boris to shine? Really?
So yes, a shoeing.
Good job they won't be using you to assess our combat power
The key issue for all NATO countries is that they are six months away from a large scale offensive operation. They won't be committing ground forces without a full spectrum capability. Add in the need to refresh all their NBC training and NATO doesn't have the same quantity of bridging kit etc needed for offensive operations.
NATO is constructed around defence, and it's capability to invade Russia negligible which is why the NATO aggression narrative is just bollox
Think he might not stop until a puppet regime is in place
A puppet regime in Ukraine would have to be backed by a permanent occupying force. He can't just install a pro-Moscow president and disappear, they would be hanging from a lamp-post by the morning. So the question remains, what does Putin think he can achieve militarily in the long term? Ukraine is a vastly-different place now compared with the USSR era, and its population are not simply going to happily revert to being run remotely from Moscow.
They wouldn’t have to, they’d squish us in seconds
Why were they scared of NATO aggression then, fearful of NATO invasion
That narrative is bollox as demonstrated by our lack of being able to do anything about Ukraine on the ground
Time for Boris to shine? Really?
No, not really.
Why were they scared of NATO aggression then, fearful of NATO invasion
That’s a different “us”. Anyway, he’s not scared of NATO, that’s just the narrative as he knows fine well that NATO would never touch Russia
I read a piece somewhere that said Russian gas supply was not as critical as it seems
Not for us - we import 5% of our gas from Russia, but 50% of the German supply is Russian!
Not cool.
Time for Boris to shine? Really?
Bring back Gavin Williamson, he knew how to handle the Russians.
Germany been arranging alternative gas shipments from middle East for a while now
Germany been arranging alternative gas shipments from middle East for a while now
Not much! They need russian gas in the midterm.
Good job they won’t be using you to assess our combat power
The key issue for all NATO countries is that they are six months away from a large scale offensive operation. They won’t be committing ground forces without a full spectrum capability. Add in the need to refresh all their NBC training and NATO doesn’t have the same quantity of bridging kit etc needed for offensive operations.
NATO is constructed around defence, and it’s capability to invade Russia negligible which is why the NATO aggression narrative is just bollox
+1.
Putin knows he’d lose against NATO too. He is significantly outnumbered in nearly all areas. He will not pick a fight against NATO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42770208
Mainland Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas; see NordStream1 and other pipelines.
That dependency explains NordStream2.
UK dependency is about 4% of gas imports.
Putin has no regard for human life so any Russian deaths will be used by him to justify further action.
This is about his legacy.
He knows that NATO will not put boots on the ground in Ukraine; he and his key oligarchs have been taking active steps for some time to mitigate likely effects of possible sanctions.
It's almost as if he's saying - go on, I dare you to try stopping me.
If he orders the bombing of Kyiv, for example, that will generate nothing other than more hand wringing.
Today's sanctions must include barring Russia from using the Swift financial transaction system; key oligarchs named, assets frozen, expelled if possible, passports suspended if possible.
In addition, an immediate reform of companies house; legislation to properly investigate beneficial ownership; a ban on 'libel tourism' as favoured by oligarchs; aggressive use of unexplained wealth orders followed by confiscation of assets.
Wishful thinking.
Putin's direct warning about any intended intervention is, I think, and as others have said the threat of nuclear retaliation.
A guest on Newsnight yesterday described the world migrating into two blocs -
i) Eurasian authoritarians led by China and Russia
ii) Liberal (western/maritime) democracies
Based on Xi and Putin, that looks about right.
Will any of this cause UK to reverse it's policy of continually shrinking it's armed forces? More wishful thinking.
So many people will die, and all for absolutely nothing.
Yes. That and, ultimately only that.
So many people will die, and all for absolutely nothing.
Glory of Mother Russia and Putin's legacy.
So many people will die, and all for absolutely nothing.
People will die - but in Russia's eyes it's definitely for something.
Will any of this cause UK to reverse it’s policy of continually shrinking it’s armed forces? More wishful thinking.
Some who post on here think UK military spending already makes us look like Billy big bass on a world stage. They want to slash it.
It's odd the Chelsea FC might well be nationalized !!!
Russia can't afford a long term occupation with soldiers going home in body bags. They wouldn't stand for it now the way they did in the 80s.
That's our only hope for a swift resolution.
They want to slash it.
Its better than those who want, and indeed, have slashed it but still want to send the troops into harms way.
Its better than those who want, and indeed, have slashed it but still want to send the troops into harms way.
I can name only one MP who proposed NATO troops in Ukraine before the invasion
I bet he has changed his mind now simply because the logistics of offensive are considerably different to defence and deterrence
So you name the posters on here or the MPs who are calling for NATO troops to deploy to Ukraine... Or are you just talking tripe?
So many people will die, and all for absolutely nothing.
Very much this. It’s disgusting that one persons ego will cause the deaths of thousands
I don’t wish a slow painful death on many people, but I’d make an exception for Putin.
**** borders - they're lines in the dirt.
Why can't these idiots just let people get on with their daily lives & stop being massive dicks.
I hate people.
Putin is looking and sounding ill, I'd say he's being driven by something we don't know yet and he simply doesn't care.