Ukraine

Thinking long term and strategically no rational country should depend on the goodwill of its neighbours for its own defence

So it’s a good idea for Ukraine to join NATO?

Operation Barbarossa and the Great Patriotic War is seared into the national consciousness.

Nether of which have anything to do with Putin's personal gamble to "reclaim" Ukraine.

So it’s a good idea for Ukraine to join NATO?

If you're willing to use all our military, including nukes, to defend Ukraine then yes.

But if you are Ukrainian, then it makes sense surely.

Russian tank column getting ambushed near Kyiv

I saw this earlier and by no means did it 'Destroy' the column. A couple of hits and the rest backed off.

Related to that video, anyone know what proportion of the Ukrainian army is involved in defending the cities and what they have out and about in the countryside to carry out these ambushes, or even sneak up behind and attack artillery positions once a seige starts?

Their border becomes narrower and consequently becomes more defensible the further  East it is pushed.

Is it not the physical geography that makes the Western border of Ukraine more easily defensible due to mountains funneling western forces through, rather than the flatlands on the east.

But regardless, it's based on an assumption that the West would, for some reason, want to invade Russia which makes a farce of the whole principle (unless you're an unhinged nutjob).

If you’re willing to use all our military, including nukes, to defend Ukraine then yes.

We won't have to do any of that, because:

Nato Article 5 is an absolute red line. Russia (and the Soviets before) have never dared to test it.

Russian tank column getting ambushed near Kyiv

Saw this earlier, and genuinely have no idea what they think they're doing rumbling up a road like a Sunday afternoon drive. Don't they know they're in a war zone

Really hope is like schitt's creek for a lot of the oligarchs now.

But regardless, it’s based on an assumption that the West would, for some reason, want to invade Russia which makes a farce of the whole principle (unless you’re an unhinged nutjob).

From what I read, the mindset is to judge the enemy by what they could do, rather than what they would do. I suppose it makes sense, as you're making decisions based on solid facts, and not making assumptions that could be wrong, or discounting an unexpected turn of events happening.

A RAF C17 is very close to Ukraine airspace right about now (2045). Dropping what I wonder ?

It was a joke. You know, black humour, a bit of levity. Try it some time, it may lower your stress levels. 🙄

(Honestly though it really was exactly the same as Borat. I was half expecting his daughter to appear in a bloodied evening dress)

Last I checked taking the piss out of foreign people's accents wasn't black humour. There's another word for that.

We won’t have to do any of that, because:

@nickc

Firstly, I didn't say we would have to defend (with nukes) Ukraine as a NATO member but that we should be prepared to. Why would we think of risking everything for a dodgy kleptocracy well outside the traditional western sphere of influence and very much inside Russia's historical sphere of influence? Secondly, all bets may be off regarding Russia traditionally being contained by Nato with an aggressive expansion east into its traditional sphere.

Russia’s historical sphere of influence?
Empire

They should’ve joined NATO.

The application is currently ongoing. Clearly Putin thought it was a good idea to get in there before it was completed.

This has nothing to do with the protection of Russian borders, and everything to do with him trying to retaking former soviet lands for his own glory

Though there is a particular strategic advantage to taking Ukraine - or at least the Black Sea coast. Now if only Turkey can be persuaded to maintain its Bosphorus blockade indefinitely.

Firstly, I didn’t say we would have to defend (with nukes)

You literally said

If you’re willing to use all our military, including nukes to defend Ukraine

make your mind up.

and very much inside Russia’s historical sphere of influence?

This is certainly what the Russians want, is it what the Ukrainians want?

well outside the traditional western sphere of influence

Ukraine shares a border with 4 current EU states, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungry. How is that "outside"?

Though there is a particular strategic advantage to taking Ukraine – or at least the Black Sea coast.

For all intents and purposes they have had that with the seizure of Crimea for several years now.

Who would've guessed that mtb could produce such military and aviation experts. Quite incredible really.

@nickc

I can see you want to split hairs over meanings to 'win' a trivial point. I would ask why you're sure that historical norms apply to an ever-expanding NATO especially when the likes of Ukraine are democracies in name only. We could just solve all the world's conflict problems by giving everyone NATO membership perhaps?

is it what the Ukrainians want

Which ones? The ethnic Russians?

Good job you’d never resort to splitting hairs

is it what the Ukrainians want

Which ones? The ethnic Russians?

Perhaps the ones that voted to leave the USSR. (92% of the vote wanted to leave)

slowoldman

They should’ve joined NATO.

The application is currently ongoing. Clearly Putin thought it was a good idea to get in there before it was completed.

Slight misunderstanding. My comment was if Russia was so scared by its neighbours as alluded to it should’ve joined NATO rather than invade Ukraine

Anyone else see anything wrong with that tank buster video?
Looks like a rogue tank shoots another
All the turrets are pointing one way, then the all go in the same direction as the turrets, ie not returning to where they came from.
As for the solo one, think he tried to get it tucked in next to a house, lager it in as a protected position but the driver failed

I can see you want to split hairs over meanings to ‘win’ a trivial point.

It isn't me that contradicted myself. It shouldn't really be that hard to keep a track of your own opinion.

Which ones? The ethnic Russians?

Now that they've realised that the rest of the ethnic Russians from across the border are prepared to bomb their children's hospitals into rubble, I'll bet that they're more keen than they were before to join the EU, don't you think? And I'll bet that they wouldn't mind  joining a mutually defensive union to have their backs to prevent that lot from across the border from doing it again in the future.

Hitler wanted to wipe out the jews. Which ethnic group does Putin want to erase from the planet?

Hitler started annexing ethnic German areas, then invading neighbouring countries under flimsy pretexts to rebuild what he thought was a lost empire.

There's definitely similarities

Bill - still sneering from the sidelines.
No-one on the thread is claiming expertise; some have knowledge based on past/present military experience.
Why not see the thread for what it is - a place where people can comment, ask questions, express concerns, share information they think might be of interest.
It's possible there are some military strategists on here but unlikely they would admit to it.

Anyone else see anything wrong with that tank buster video?

Yes, I have some doubts about it. When the column moves off at the end, the vehicles ‘hit’ seemed to move off with all rest. There don’t appear to be any wrecks.

Hitler started annexing ethnic German areas, then invading neighbouring countries under flimsy pretexts to rebuild what he thought was a lost empire.

Crazy, when all he needed to do was pick a big country with lots of resources, find the warring factions, build a relationship with one, and arm train them to take over.

Then it's a simple matter of moving your own army in and incorporating theirs with yours. At least to a lesser role like serving the oysters on the lawn.

Sticking with your Putin apologism then?

It’s all still NATO’s fault, right?

#usefulidiots

It isn’t me that contradicted myself. It shouldn’t really be that hard to keep a track of your own opinion.

Don't start this again. You should learn the difference between actually and potentially.

Moreover, the known inviolability of NATO's Article 5 applies only to NATO in its present and past state, NOT a further expanded NATO necessarily.

To put it simply, you're comparing apples with oranges.

I’ll bet that they’re more keen than they were before to join the EU, don’t you think? And I’ll bet that they wouldn’t mind joining a mutually defensive union to have their backs to prevent that lot from across the border from doing it again in the future.

The EU doesn't want them because Ukraine is so corrupt. NATO only wants them as a perma-potential member.

The EU doesn’t want them because Ukraine is was so corrupt. NATO only wants them as a perma-potential member.

Ukraine was many things but whatever happens now it will be a very different Ukraine by the end of this. A lot of that corruption was also due to the influence of its rather bolshy neighbour. It's one of the many reasons their eyes turned to the West. I suspect the world, NATO and the EU will view the country in a very different light once this conflict is over.

The EU doesn’t want them because Ukraine is so corrupt

That was the case pre-2014, but not since the revolution, which is the main reason what’s happening now is happening now. The Russians aren’t happy that their corrupt satellite state is no more

Do try and keep up dear. You’ve had 8 years to bring yourself up to speed

I’m also horrified at the idea of a NATO country invading Russia, whichever NATO country it is. If it ever happens, Russia would be right to defend itself. It’s the one act that would split NATO, as member states would leave.

One day i expect to hear a sonic boom as your head leaves your backside

Nice.

Seems to be an awful lot more, even on this thread have agreed the NATO expansionism was a bad idea

All the usual suspects?

Any democratic independent nation state is free to do what is in the best interests of its citizens

The citizens of Ukraine were overwhelmingly in favour of being part of both NATO and the EU.

That’s what they voted for.

And who can blame them?

I know that offends you and your mates in Moscow and Islington North but it is what it is. Democracy, eh? Pfft!

You carry on with being an apologist for genocide if you like

Do you, by any chance, have in your hand a piece of paper?

which is the main reason what’s happening now is happening now. The Russians aren’t happy that their corrupt satellite state is no more

I had no idea you were such an expert on Eastern European geopolitics. My, certainly a dark horse there for sure.

I only picked up on that recently, from a posted vid. I'm glad you're here to keep us all up to date on the military and geopolitical history of Russia and eastern Europe. Are you a professor or something ?. Genuine question.

@Kelvin

Not sure what you're going on about Kelvin. I'm pretty sure NATO hasn't invaded Russia at any time. Are you sure you're following the correct conflict 😕

Exactly. They haven’t attacked Russia. They have let former Warsaw Pact countries join. Which one(s) shouldn’t they have let join, and how exactly would that have dissuaded Putin from expanding the RF through force?

@Kelvin

Shouldn't that be something you address to NATO, as to why they postponed the Ukraine from joining. ?

I think this is the correct email address. mailbox.tribunal@hq.nato.int

Although you could just ask binners, he's got his finger on the pulse.

I had no idea you were such an expert on Eastern European geopolitics. My, certainly a dark horse there for sure.

I only picked up on that recently, from a posted vid. I’m glad you’re here to keep us all up to date on the military and geopolitical history of Russia and eastern Europe. Are you a professor or something ?. Genuine question.</blockquote

Look in your mirror.

You're a current (or ex) butcher, now a geo-political expert; good to know that transition is possible.

I shouldn't waste time posting about dim comments.

 

Shouldn’t that be something you address to NATO

My point is your use of “expansionism”… when referring to NATO, by which I assume you mean accepting new members. But it sounds so much more aggressive when you put it your way. If NATO accepting states was a provocation that can be connected to the invasion of Ukraine, which countries shouldn’t have been accepted? Where is the line you would draw? Which side is Lithuania? Or Poland? Was German unification part of the provocation leading up to this invasion?

as to why they postponed the Ukraine from joining. ?

You can’t really talk about the countries they haven’t accepted as members as evidence of “expansionism” that provoked this war.

I had no idea you were such an expert on Eastern European geopolitics

Do you need to be? If you watch the documentary’ Winter on Fire’ it gives you a pretty good idea of what the Ukrainian people wanted after the end of the soviet era, which they were denied by their pro-Moscow corrupt regime

But you carry on with your Kremlin apologism if you like. Are you enjoying the genocide? It certainly seems that way

You'll need to give me and all the reason why you think NATO hasn't caused problems by expanding right up to the Russian border Kelvin. To stay on topic and not engage in personal attacks on forum members.

Of course you'll need to look at it from the Russian perspective. Do you feel Russia was nervous about having NATO military directly on their border, with missiles pointed their way.

Now you don't have to agree or disagree with any subsequent actions taken by Russia, nor whether or not you think or feel that was good or bad, just your take on what the effects would be. An analysis of it really. Unbiased clean and clear.

I mean, you need to judge both sides of the coin dont you ?. you cant have a blinkered view and at the same time claim to understand the situation at hand.

@Frank

Look in your mirror.

You’re a current (or ex) butcher, now a geo-political expert; good to know that transition is possible.

I shouldn’t waste time posting about dim comments.

I have never claimed to be an expert on anything, other than making furniture or butchering meat for the pot. But im sure everyone posting on here could have the same claim laid against them by you view.

In point of fact nobody on here, with the exception of our ex military have a clear view of those politics. But then they were absorbed into it.

Which NATO countries shouldn’t have been allowed to join?

expanding right up to the Russian border

So, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia… Poland?

You are Seamas Milne and I claim my signed painting of Stalin