For the first few days, Russian units (including elite paratroopers) just drove into Ukrainian ambushes and got slaughtered. Then they ran into logistics problems and had to change plan. They seem to have reverted back to what I’m told is standard Russian doctrine of just shelling and bombing the crap out of everything until the other side surrenders. I’m guessing that the Russian troops have figured out that charging into Ukrainian positions armed with anti-tank missiles is suicidal and the Ukrainians don’t have the forces to counter attack and push the Russians back.
It does seem like they are attempting to fight WW2 again, forgetting about the existance of real time satellite images and man portable tank busters.
Thanks it’s good to know others feel this way. I feel like I’ve been losing my mind since around 2020.
Do not rely on me agreeing with you as any guarantee of your sanity!
So what happens in the end? The Russians aren't going to say "aah, **** it, let's go back home", and the Ukrainians can't force them to without getting the ability to retaliate against Russian cities. Sooneer or later they will prevail. Putin will keep turning up the volume until the whole country is destroyed. He doesn't care how many troops he loses or how many civilians get killed. So he inherits a wasteland. Then what? Some options:
1. He pulls out except for Crimea and the "breakaway" republics (plus a bit for good measure)? and leaves the Ukrainians to rebuild, but minus a military
2. He tries to occupy the whole country
I would guess that the ones who lose out in Russia are the middle class, who have their ideas about a modern life with travel, nice things, international education, secure savings etc disappear into the mist. The poor will remain poor (like everywhere) and the rich will remain rich (ditto). Will that catalyse any change in Russia? Guess we'll find out.
2. He tries to occupy the whole country
He imposes a puppet regime as in Belarus, problem is that the Ukrainians are so united now it will never stand
Abramovich sanctioned.
Those sanctions, are they immediate, or do they give them the six months tidy up time that's in the bill (knocked done from the original 18 months)?
Steve Rosenberg, BBC Moscow correspondent, still seems to find ordinary Russians on the street who back Putin. One of them commenting on Macdonald's leaving, that Russians should be happy as they're fed up with western consumer colonialism.
He has managed to brutally crush all resistance in Belarus, there state is in complete control, even animal charities are banned.
Putin is moving in more equipment from all over Russia https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1501239408107925514?t=IXuss463LE1I1mNsmkqvRA&s=19
Its pretty obvious his plans have gone wrong, but he's willing to keep pushing on so, I think his plan is still option 2, but I don't see how the country wont be reduced to rubble to do that
So what happens in the end? The Russians aren’t going to say “aah, **** it, let’s go back home”, and the Ukrainians can’t force them to without getting the ability to retaliate against Russian cities.
My guess is that there will be a stalemate for months but Russia's military capacity will decline. They can call up a huge pool of reservists but they won't be any better trained than the current lot. They have thousands of tanks etc. in storage, but most of it is probably junk and they won't be able to upgrade the old stuff to modern specs. They seem to have limited supplies of smart bombs and missiles so their aircraft will need to rely on unguided bombs. If they bomb from low altitude, they will lose a lot of aircraft to missiles. If they bomb from high altitude, they won't be able to hit anything with any precision.
NATO have the capacity to rebuild and train the Ukrainian forces so hopefully they will be able to maintain or improve their military capacity and recapture lost territory. Assuming that happens, big question will be whether the Russian troops stand and fight or prefer to surrender.
Old but still valid mostly on their doctrine
A lot of their munitions turning out to be duds (sadly not enough)
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1497176559765053443?t=G7JVIFQABiRTkjn8xw2ylg&s=19
Does anyone else find it difficult to process the hyprocrisy and double standards here?
Difficult to process? Not really. People are always more concerned about stuff closer to home, and yes, when they can identify with the victims i.e. they look like them. It's racism, but it also hints at the root cause of racism which is humanity's innate tribalism. A lot of responses are moderated by gut reactions still, and race and even distance to home do affect these things. I'm not offering this as an excuse, of course, just an insight into the problem.
It's horrible now. I saw a report on a tech news group saying they are cutting the WWW on Friday but dismissed it as folly now it's taking traction on the news proper.
US saying a possible fasle flag chemical attack.
He wants war, is the Russin state so blind to the world that they don't know the cat is out the bag drones see everything so do spy sats nevermind NATO parking sentinels 1 to 4 in the sky?
It's a 70s conflict in 2020s tech environment.
The average Russian is not daft the www can be found if you need to, even the bbc are broadcasting back in longwave to get the info out.
And sadly Russian people will be bankrupt for years Putin saying they will take over multi national companys property and re nationalise them if they leave Russia what's he going to do with it all the rouble is worth less than doge coin FFs. (Actually not correct as we don't the exchange rate as the market is closed)
North Korea is not a roll model for nation building Mr Putin
They seem to have reverted back to what I’m told is standard Russian doctrine of just shelling and bombing the crap out of everything until the other side surrenders. I’m guessing that the Russian troops have figured out that charging into Ukrainian positions armed with anti-tank missiles is suicidal and the Ukrainians don’t have the forces to counter attack and push the Russians back. My uninformed guess is that it’s going to settle down to a bloody war of attrition now.
Yes, but unlike their previous adventures it's not going to be a one way war of attrition. Every Russian tracked artillery piece is a fuel hungry, logistic drain and a Javelin/NLAW/Bayraktar magnet. It's not going to happen quickly, but the constant drip, drip of Russian losses, their inability to deploy effective air cover due to the manpad threat, and poor morale due to casualties, hunger, cold, fatigue will take their toll.
At some stage the Russian forces in theatre will need to be relieved. Not just battlefield casualty replacements but whole units will need to be rotated out due the shear fatigue of constant operations. All armies need to do this, no soldier can fight indefinitely without eventually becoming ineffective. The unexpected losses and delay in achieving their objectives have just exacerbated this. Some estimates say a third of their total combat capability is already deployed in Ukraine and they have other operational commitments in Syria and elsewhere.
There is also a question mark over their operational reserves of ammunition. This deployment is massive, the multiple cities they are trying to attack/capture far outweigh any conflict in recent history. The resources needed to feed it are immense and costly. They are already short of smart munitions and have used them extremely sparingly, I suspect it's doubtful that their operational planners will have planned for the protracted war that is developing and their depots may well run low of 'dumb' munitions. Large stock piles of artillery and tank ammunition are eye wateringly expensive for any county to maintain and are a finite resource. Yes, they can make more but lead times are long - it's not like turning on a tap at the rate the Russians are using them. Not to mention the huge logistic difficulty of getting them from Russian depots to the guns on the front line.
I'm not suggesting the guns will stop firing soon and I am mindful that in the interim they are bringing untold misery and destruction to Ukraine, but the longer this lasts, the more difficult it will be for Russia to sustain it. IMO they have bitten off more than they can chew.
In the situation where the conventional forces are spent, I don't see a withdrawal, I see tactical nuclear "battlefield" or chemical weapon deployment.
Russian clearly looking to destroy what they can in Ukraine, not the strategy you would expect from a force intent on occupation, more one where they want to secure a land bridge to Crimea and leave a derelict wasteland of Eastern Ukraine to act as a buffer zone as part on a negotiated ‘peace’ treaty. Radiation leakage from Chernobyl would also add to the mess. Clearly RF forces didn’t expect a level of resistance and with an ongoing insurgency the level of effort to occupy/secure the area will put a massive ongoing strain on logistics/supply lines. Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence - those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.
I see tactical nuclear “battlefield” or chemical weapon deployment.
Why d'you think that?
In the situation where the conventional forces are spent, I don’t see a withdrawal, I see tactical nuclear “battlefield” or chemical weapon deployment.
Its widely reported that the Russian doctrine is of course "escalate to deescalate" that unfortunately this is a real possibility until Ukraine agrees never to join NATO and to hand over territory to Russia. Zelensky has indicated that they are closer to that than the West realises, whilst at the same time banging the "we will never surrender" drum with the West. Putin will keep hammering him until he capitulates.
I'm sure Putin's telling him "it'll not stop until you agree, and they (the West) are not coming to your rescue".
Why d’you think that?
Syria.
Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence – those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.
Doubtful, as I don't think anyone in NATO is in a hurry to do anything that would give Putin an excuse to attack NATO members.
More likely passing Ukrainian with a mobile phone.
The Russians shared some photos as a form of intimidation I guess which might not have been the smartest move.
Having troops on the ground would be rather risky although I suspect there is some careful sharing of info from all the intelligence planes hanging around the border. Although even there would have to be careful since they could then become targets.
So I heard on R4 this morning (James Heappey from the ministry of defence) that:
1) Yes, there's a problem with the UK's processing of Ukrainian immigrants (OK sure, but why are you talking to the armed forces minister about this?)
2) Partly it's due to laws / political willingness, but also a lack of staff to deal with immigration applications. (Hmm, surely the latter is only relevant when the former is sorted? Where's all this going?)
3) The MoD are 'happy to help out' by processing applications for immigration. They could, for example redeploy their staff. (That's nice I suppose, but can soldiers process paperwork?)
4) This would make most sense if it was done near where the immigrants actually are. In Poland. (Oh. That's where you're going with all this.)
Which sounded an awful lot like there was a plan to deploy troops in Poland.
There's a single paragraph about it HERE.
Armed Forces Minister James Heappey told BBC Breakfast the Ministry of Defence had offered to assist the Home Office with the visa process, although the countries where application centres are set up would have to approve British troops being sent to help.
Although this made me laugh.
I agree, gravy on chips is a travesty.
(That’s nice I suppose, but can soldiers process paperwork?)
The army is very good at paperwork, they have an entire unit for paperwork
They did it in Afghanistan, they are far more motivated than the average civil servant, unless they are the RAF 😉
The army is very good at paperwork, they have an entire unit for paperwork
Nearly one of those things is true.
Syria.
neither of those sorts of weapons have been used in Syria by RF forces have they?
A satellite recon would spot choppers and one phone call could get drones or artillery on the way pronto
Ditto AWACs surveillance planes at 40,000 ft
Does Lavrov actually believe what he is saying?
Not sure why the "what sort of person..." thread was just closed (except to reduce number of Ukraine threads, maybe - please delete if the whole subject is off-limits for some reason) - I thought it was an interesting question, as there was an article in the local paper yesterday about an ex-Royal Marine who'd done just that (could understand a single, adventurer type going but this chap apparently has a wife & 3 kids!)
Then I googled it & the Times reckons appropriately experienced mercenaries are being offered up to $2k per day, which is a possible explanation.
I agree, that thread is different to this thread and responses to both will get diluted now.
Does Lavrov actually believe what he is saying?
Of course not. Words are just weapons for guys like him. Truth has no relevance.
Not sure why the “what sort of person…” thread was just closed (except to reduce number of Ukraine threads, maybe – please delete if the whole subject is off-limits for some reason) – I thought it was an interesting question
Same here. I think it's more nuanced than a lot of people automatically assume.
zilog - likewise - I also read yesterday of an ex forces homeless guy who would quite happily go as he's nothing to lose here and would actually feel valued there.
20 helicopters, did I miss something?
Also, just spending a bit of time on Google Earth. How long typically before post-invasion imagery appears on there?
Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence – those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.
I doubt it, can you imagine what would happen if any were captured? Retired soldiers going on their own initiative is one thing, army regulars is another.
Actually, someone like the SAS or US Delta Force is probably a big no no, would the French Foreign legion for example be able to get away with it, more plausible denial? The FL have already released all theirs Ukrainians to return home but there must be dozens of other nationalities there.
As someone said above, a local with a telephone is more likely, the populous will be keen to do all they can to help out and pass info to those who need it
UK SFO are often "retired soldiers", as in ex-army personnel, with surprisingly good pensions, and an usual history of training with the RAF regiment.
UK SFO are often “retired soldiers”, as in ex-army personnel, with surprisingly good pensions, and an usual history of training with the RAF regiment.
The rock apes aren't part of the army though.
Lavrov bought his step daughter a $4m flat in Kensington 😳
https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1501878723720749060?t=qYV1XajB-3ywc1eLmydSgw&s=19
Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence – those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.
My assumption was that NATO would be providing intelligence to Ukraine but it would be stuff gathered electronically. NATO will be training Ukrainians as well but that can be done outside of combat zones. There's no reason for NATO to have troops in the combat zones, the Ukrainian troops seem to be very capable and their intelligence gathering can be passed back to NATO for analysis. One of the big advantages that Ukraine seems to have is that NATO supplied encrypted communications equipment (and night vision gear, etc.) That will allow Ukraine and NATO to cooperate on intelligence gathering and targeting information.
Actually, someone like the SAS or US Delta Force is probably a big no no
Serving soldiers from the UK would be in the shit (prison time most likely) if they went to Ukraine to fight. I presume same for US army personnel as well.
neither of those sorts of weapons have been used in Syria by RF forces have they?
Chemical weapons were used in Syria. I doubt solely by the Syrians.
Caught part of the Politics Show at lunchtime - Lord Vaizey(?) adamant that the Ukraine crisis needs to kick-start a fairer way of helping refugees reach the UK. Was then challenged to confirm he'd be voting against the Nationalities and Borders Bill or whatever its called, cue lots of waffle and "thats different"
Just saw an interview in English with Zelensky on sky news. He talks exactly like Borat. He should stick to Ukrainian from now on I think.
Just heard BBC news on R6 from this morning (listening again). Mention of the Mariupol children's hospital bombing, war crimes etc. Then at least as long a "right to reply" statement from Lavrov via a translator, saying it was Azov in there and that news is being manipulated.
WTF?
Is that "for balance"?
I've just found out that Putin is referred to as Poutine in France, presumably because 'putin' is a very common general purpose medium grade swear word along the lines of 'bollocks' and it actually means whore. One would assume they changed the spelling to avoid embarrassment, but they should probably change it back.
On the other hand, his real name isn't written as Putin because it exists in Cyrillic.
EDIT perhaps this should be on the interesting facts thread but of course the Latin alphabet doesn't have the same pronunciation the world over, and Soviet era passports used French transliteration of Cyrillic so maybe it was always Poutine on his passport.
WTF?
Is that “for balance”?
Exposing lies perhaps?
Also, just spending a bit of time on Google Earth. How long typically before post-invasion imagery appears on there?
The more detailed footage is primarily from planes. So would need to wait until its safe again. Although that said the satellite footage has been improving.
I'll just post this again as the director of 'Winter on Fire' is presently being interviewed by Nihal on Five Live (well worth a listen on BBC Sounds). This really is a must watch. It's a detailed account of the brutal behaviour of the pro-Moscow Ukrainian government, which led to the revolution of 2014 and then the annexation of Crimea.
It adds a lot of context to the present situation and its just a brilliantly made documentary. Its available for free on Netflix or the full film is on YouTube
