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Watching Zelensky’s defiance must be winding Putin up no end
I'm seriously concerned that Putin is deranged enough to just obliterate Kyiv using air power in his anger at the resistance.
Wonder if someone in the Kremlin would stop him launching a nuclear attack on Ukraine if he really lost it. Not as if there's any logic to his planning or decision making so far. Alzheimer's?
Looking at Zelensky's twitter account, he's not for backing down at all eh? You've got to imagine Putin's plan would have been to be at the negotiating table by now, negotiating the terms of a subservient gov, or at least in short order after the encirclement of Kyiv.
Zelensky seems to have big balls though, is all in on the EU shout, and is going to force Putin to take Kyiv, and who knows how that ends, you wonder what the strength of feeling in Russia would be about that..What's the chance of that backfiring spectacularly and something big happening in Russia in that regard?
Interesting points earlier about the cost of this to russia in real terms, a long war is an expensive business.
@molgrips they can use Tor to circumvent censorship (although as of last December the Russians have attempted to block access)The Russian blocks on Facebook and Twitter – can they be circumvented by the general public
https://blog.torproject.org/tor-censorship-in-russia/
You can help by spreading awareness of Tor and/or creating a private access point onto the network (effectively whack-a-mole as more are created but then Russian ISPs will block them as they’re detected)
https://blog.torproject.org/run-a-bridge-campaign/
Wow re Tor access points.
Looking at Zelensky’s twitter account
Wartime leaders on Twitter is quite something. A world first? Can you imagine Churchill, Stalin, Hitler and Eisenhower on social media?
I’ve just seen a post on our local FB asking if anyone knows a place that has diesel… Related?
No diesel at our local Tesco yesterday
@molegrips nope
Bad weathers stopped the boats coming into dock at the refineries.
There's lifting allocations in place at certain refineries. It'll clear by Monday now the winds dropped
You'd not risk parking a tanker in high wind
I’m guessing we’ve seen the video of the guy asking the guys with the out-of-fuel tank if he can offer them a tow back to Russia? 😀
Turkey have agreed to blockage the Black Sea. I'm very surprised by this.
captured Russian soldiers are saying they’ve no idea what they’re actually doing e
Sounds like what my old boss, a Czech, said about the Russians in Prague in 1968. A lot of them thought they were in Germany.
According to my armchair military expertise, I’d imagine that a lot of Western generals are looking at this with interest, as it seems that the mighty Russian army is not so great after all, and a battle with an enemy with a functioning Air Force might not end up well.
piha
Free MemberTurkey have agreed to blockage the Black Sea. I’m very surprised by this.
Just saw that too. 2 things sprung to mind 1. Do you trust Erdogan? 2. Apparently stopping a shop getting to its home port is against international law, so potentially messy
Also, is it just me or does the Russian strategy look a lot like Zap Brannigan?
DrJ
Free Member
I’d imagine that a lot of Western generals are looking at this with interest, as it seems that the mighty Russian army is not so great after all,
I imagine we're seeing a bit of propaganda in that respect. Ukraine isn't a far flung nation, so I think there's an element of treading carefully, it's been billed as a special operation, so they can't really just go in and carpet bomb the place. How it plays at home isn't insignificant I guess.
Turkey have agreed to blockage the Black Sea. I’m very surprised by this.
Yeah that is big. Not least because it's in central Istanbul so a lot of nice property and historic relics could get very blown up if there are hostilities in the water.
They do seem to be stepping things up a bit with reports of those thermo-rockets, providing they actually get to their target.
..
What do people think about the arming of civilians? i.e. making them into potential targets? Which of us armchair military strategists would take up arms in this context?
I thought about the equivalent here. Not sure the Liverpool mayor handing out AK47's outside the town hall would be a sensible idea even if the city was under attack.
Can you imagine Churchill, Stalin, Hitler and Eisenhower on social media?
God yeah, they all would've been all over that like a rash.
What do people think about the arming of civilians? i.e. making them into potential targets?
Both the US and the UK had a almost entirely conscripted army in 2nd WW. Is this any different from that?
We have done the same here, its more or less what the Home Guard were, albeit less organised, although we did it before the event and they were never really needed in anger, besides such things as capturing downed pilots.
If you suspect the army are going to be beaten but want to create a resistance/insurgency afterwards it makes a lot of sense. I'm all for it.
I would like to think i would do the same if it was me there but who knows how they would react in real danger like that?
Turkey have agreed to blockage the Black Sea. I’m very surprised by this.
This is a very bad idea. How are they going to enforce it without starting hostilities with the Russian navy, which as a NATO member, would be an even worse idea?
Reports on the Guardian feed are that the blockage of the black sea is 'yet to be decided' according to Turkey.
Side question, why are there so many strato-tankers circling just over this side of the boarder? Are they just refueling surveillance aircraft (which I though would have a decent enough range anyway)?
There's been a tanker from the Netherlands or UK over Poland, on pretty much the same circuit non-stop since Thurs, with ours getting Typhoon escort there and back each time
^ Turkey uncertain whether to play chicken for Kiev?
According to Zelenskiy's insta feed an hour ago, he thought Turkey had indeed blocked off the Black Sea. Maybe Erdogan committed a bit early and then had second thoughts re repercussions? Let's hope he sees it through.
I am grateful to my friend @rterdogan and the people of Turkey for their strong support. The ban on Russia's passage of warships into the Black Sea and significant military and humanitarian support for Ukraine today are very important. We will never forget that!
its more or less what the Home Guard were
What happened to the home guard weapons after the war? It's quite nice at the moment having low general availability of military personal weapons. Ukraine has only war to concentrate on now, but whichever way it goes, the country's going to be awash with all sorts of personal machine guns and missiles.
If he goes through with it, will he be prepared to go to war over it? Stopping a navy that wants to go somewhere presumably means doing so by force.
Side question, why are there so many strato-tankers circling just over this side of the boarder?
There will be a fair few fighters hanging around as well as the surveillance aircraft.
For the UK case I think it is more the tanker is escorting the fighters.
From what I saw the tanker stayed up whilst the fighter landed in Poland before returning along side when it be headed back
Side question, why do so many people spell border as boarder?
There are some other planes in the area. Two B-52s were visible on Wednesday taking off , they went black over Germany. There are also B-1's in the area, they have always beeb black, even when you could physically see them.
Re. air battle- Russia's air force is very intercept and defence orientated. They have bombers of couuse but unlikely western planes all so Su-37's and such aren't great at ground attack, and the pilots don't train for multirole offensive.
I live in Norway, if similar happened here most civilians have done national service, and would be armed
https://mobile.twitter.com/rihoterras/status/1497537193346220038/photo/1
This is an interesting link. Apparently referencing a Ukrainian intelligence officer with ears inside Vlad the Invader's inner circle. No experience of foreign policy or wars/campaigns or Ukraine. Expectation of quick capitulation followed by nice little treaty. Bad logistics, lack of weaponry, confused soldiers. Doesn't augur too well for Vlad if the Ukrainians can hold out for a few more days..
Could all be bollix of course, but certainly seems to ring true with a lot of the other information coming out at the moment
Montreux Convention still applies to access to/egress from Black Sea - unless one or more of the signatories chooses to ignore it.
In summary...
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-does-the-montreux-accord-say-about-closing-black-sea-access-to-russia-55083
It's also worth reasding about Russia's recent actions in restricting access to the Sea of Azov.
Side question, why do so many people spell border as boarder?
Forgot the other meaning, and pretty sure it's the first time I've written the word in any sense since GSCE History 25 years ago.
*Takes note as it may be used a little more regularly in the near future
I live in Norway, if similar happened here most civilians have done national service, and would be armed
Anyone know if Ukraine still has national service?
Could all be bollix of course, but certainly seems to ring true with a lot of the other information coming out at the moment
As you'd expect from a misinformation campaign. Also, if I were running a really good misinformation campaign I'd want parts of it to look like a crap misinformation campaign so that the bits I really wanted to stick could look credible by comparison.
But then again, it might be true...
Anyone know if Ukraine still has national service?
Yes; due to end in 2024 but current activities may change that.
Anyone know if Ukraine still has national service?
My dentist is Ukrainian (been here 9 years) and I found out last week when I went to finalise root canal treatment that he had returned to Ukraine, I guess to join in the fighting for his country.
US intelligence continues to suggest that RF still haven't achieved air superiority. Ukrainian air defences still operational and aircraft still flying and engaging RF.
Surely after this many days, that's an awful cock-up not to have that wrapped up
Chechens going in now, not surprised those shitbags are up for a scrap.
Interesting reaction from my Russian colleagues. They’ve all come out publicly in support of Ukraine on Facebook. Messaging one of them last night and the anger in his replies was astounding. Talking of prosecuting Putin for war crimes and how fighting Ukraine was like fighting your brother. He’s the one Russian I would have expected to be mildly supportive of Putin. Seems like it’s not going down at all well.
Meanwhile my Ukrainian-Muscovite friend who normally berates Putin on Twitter and Facebook for receiving parking tickets is understandably silent. Trying to reach him but I have to tread carefully.
Facebook is still running, Twitter is down internally but can be got around with a decent VPN, for now.
how fighting Ukraine was like fighting your brother.
My Russian coursemate said as much too.
Chechens going in now, not surprised those shitbags are up for a scrap.
Source and on which side?
And that in a nutshell is Putins problem, yes there will be some nut jobs like Kadyrov whose only loyalty is to Putin, but a lot of ordinary soldiers allegiance will primarily be to Russia.
Sounds like it is going to get nastier and nastier. Hoping Ukraine can hold on a bit longer.
The Kadyrov news was on BBC.
Quote from the article linked below which seems very odd to me.
The reversal could mean a rapid increase in European military assistance for Ukraine, as large portions of the Continent’s weapons and ammunition are at least in part German-manufactured, giving Berlin legal control over their transfer. Yet Berlin’s changing stance does not necessarily mean all requests for arms shipments will be approved, as each case is decided individually.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/
Surely sending Chechens in to kill people who many Russians consider their brothers won't go down well with the Russian public?
Exactly my thought - encouraging the Chechens isn’t likely to play well at all, even if it doesn’t massively backfire down the line.
Equally there may be a few Chechens who fancy putting the boot into Russia, and I wonder how much Orban’s position is driven by folk memories of 1956.
Potentially sending in a rag-tag bunch of guerilla fighters in on day 3 seems desperate or completely mad, a way to cause maximum chaos for sure.
Seems like the hackers if the rest of the world are taking on the Russians. That's quite something. I mean we've been talking about state sponsored cyber warfare for a while but it never occurred to me that any individual could pile in. The whole world can gang up on Russia without them being able to retaliate in the conventional sense.
Source and on which side?
As said BBC, with the Russians. It'll be loyalists and they have quite the reputation.
The whole world can gang up on Russia without them being able to retaliate in the conventional sense.
Not sure about that ,I'm pretty sure if some keyboard warrior in his bedroom in Slough managed to cause the russian government/Putin serious harm,they would very quicky find themselves on the receiving end of some novichok.
they have quite the reputation.
Presumably not for winning hearts and minds?
For those asking why the air tankers are up
if some keyboard warrior in his bedroom in Slough
There's people significantly more threatening rhan that out there.
Disappointed our pro-Putin posters have gone quiet since the invasion they predicted wouldn’t happen, kinda, well, happened. But they can comfort themselves with a bit of Pilger’s latest work of genius. I dunno John, what happened to you?
https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1497560700125790209?s=21
Bravo Slovakia 👏
https://twitter.com/vasakovalivia/status/1497327591602143237?s=21
For those asking why the air tankers are up
Thanks Houns
I don't think keyboard warrior is a name normally used for hackers.
That term is normally reserved for middle aged IT managers who spend all day on mountain biking forums arguing with each other.
I'm not sure how much use that particular skillset is going to be for the war effort. Perhaps Putin's secret weakness is sarcastic comments about his grasp of grammar?
they have quite the reputation.
Presumably not for winning hearts and minds?
Letting slip the dogs of war - doing the dirty work Putin either doesn't want done by Russian soldiers, or that Putin worries Russian soldiers would refuse to do.
I'm not a religious man, so I'm doing the non-religious equivalent of praying for the Ukranians. Though I imagine if you are defending your home and family against Chechen thugs, there may be depths you'd stoop to in return.
That's a brilliant response from Slovakia, exactly what is needed right now. No bullshit, just the human hand of kindness in extraordinary circumstances.
It does seem the whole of the West is United behind the Ukrainians. The Russians (or more to the point Putin himself) really have bet everything on Red and are going to be screwed if they don't win.
The Russians (or more to the point Putin himself) really have bet everything on Red and are going to be screwed if they don’t win.
It's to be hoped that Putin has a moment of clarity and a loaded revolver when he realises he's lost the world on this gamble.
Of that someone else does, before he hits the big red button.
doing the dirty work Putin either doesn’t want done by Russian soldiers, or that Putin worries Russian soldiers would refuse to do.
A couple of massacres are unlikely to help the Russian PR effort (which they’re ballsing up anyway).
Even if the Russians pull this off, Ukraine is a very big country and it will take a lot of troops (rather than a relatively small number of Chechens) to tie down the inevitable insurgency?
It’s to be hoped that Putin has a moment of clarity and a loaded revolver when he realises he’s lost the world on this gamble.
Of that someone else does, before he hits the big red button.
Someone else is far more likely to say ‘enough’ than the man himself. That someone might be Xi.
One thing that is worth remembering is that there have actually been Chechens in Ukraine for years fighting against Russia:
There are two kinds of Chechens though, the puppet government which support, and are supported by, Putin and everyone else. I think the second group are probably bigger but kept down by the might of the former
If a large enough number of the Chechen forces are away in Ukraine will we see another uprising there?
If a large enough number of the Chechen forces are away in Ukraine will we see another uprising there?
That’s a very good question.
As above, involving the Chechens in Ukraine might have less than predictable consequences.
That response from Slovakia is brilliant; hope other countries take their lead from it.
Crypto donations to Ukraine are now at $9mill.
Germany agrees to 'targeted' limitations of SWIFT; it's a start.
Viktor Orban, surprisingly, fully backs EU sanctions.
Abramovich hands 'stewardship and care' of Chelsea FC to club charitable foundation; don't know what that means - other than he's concerned.
He's gotta be careful what he does, cos otherwise its a Gieger Counter to check your cup of tea, and never touching a doorknob again.
Viktor Orban, surprisingly, fully backs EU sanctions.
If I was the leader of part of the former Soviet empire that Putin wants to recreate, I'd be thinking carefully where my best options lay
Sorry can’t remember details but heard an expert state recently that if Russia was to maintain control long term in the face of guerrilla warfare it would need over 600000 boots on the ground and it doesn’t have that resource.
Fingers crossed this is the end of putin and all those connected.
Story on reddit (with video, but not sure how true it is) that someone hacked Russian state tv and played the Ukrainian national anthem on air.
I hope it is true
https://www.reddit.com/r/next****inglevel/comments/t20e86/russian_state_television_channels_were_briefly/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Abramovich hands ‘stewardship and care’ of Chelsea FC to club charitable foundation; don’t know what that means – other than he’s concerned
I just posted this on the kickyball thread, but Alan Davies summed up Abramovic’s ownership of Chelski best. He wrote this in 2015 but it seems more applicable than ever…
I think this must mean he must now be concerned about getting his assets frozen
deadlydarcy
Free Member
Disappointed our pro-Putin posters have gone quiet since the invasion they predicted wouldn’t happen, kinda, well, happened.
Noticeable isn't it, though I'm sure they are reading the thread.
Anyway, enough of that.
I Hope Ukraine is the anvil that breaks Putin into pieces.
I'm not particularly religious but I did utter a little prayer for them last night.
An incredible nation of people.
Viktor Orban, surprisingly, fully backs EU sanctions.
Yeah I also wonder how Poland are now feeling about their populist battle with the EU.
Yeah I also wonder how Poland are now feeling about their populist battle with the EU.
Given that eg. Banks and the nicotine-stained man frog have nailed their true colours to the mast…
Growing up I was a big admirer of Pilger, but that paragraph from him is just so sad…
It does seem the whole of the West is United behind the Ukrainians.
er, yes, apart from Priti Patel who doesn't seem to want a single refugee here?
^that was pretty obvious from one of Boris’ very first press conferences.
Night drawing in again - here’s hoping they can make it through another one 🤞
I have just scrolled through Pilger's twitter feed. I can only assume that he has become so focused on western governments corruption and lies, he has forgotten that others can be even worse. In becoming so obsessed he isn't holding Russia and China to the same standards.
Every night they make it through is one more blow to Putin, the longer they hold out the bigger the chance of him being stopped somehow.
It makes a bit more sense if the reports are true and Putin was expecting a walk-in and a change of government.