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I’m sure a 0.1% rise in GDP will have voters flooding back to the fold. Woohoo! We’re all going to be rich!
Anyone who has truly deserted labour based on the last six months must be quite fickle, in which case I can't see why actual positive economic news wouldn't bring them back.
Makes a break from all the naval gazing and self-loathing at least!
Anyone who has truly deserted labour based on the last six months must be quite fickle
Oh absolutely without doubt. It is generally accepted that the Labour vote six months ago had very little to do with any profound belief in the Labour Party or Keir Starmer and everything to do with a strong rejection of the ruling Conservative Party.
The landslide that Labour won in July was built on sand, as the fact that only 54% of Labour voters now say they would vote Labour if there was a general election tomorrow testifies.
The government saying to voters "trust us" simply isn't enough, especially when they keep reminding voters how shit things are.
The latest opinion poll (fieldwork was carried out two days ago) has Labour in third place behind both the Tories and Reform who are tied :
https://twitter.com/sixthgalaxy/status/1879968735429366170
Liz Truss must find it reassuring to see that as Prime Minister Starmer has made Labour as unpopular as she made the Tories when she was Prime Minister.
I think idea to tweak/relax the mortgage rules which is in effect to drive GDP is bonkers and desperate.
We all know where that will end up.
Amazing that the drive from Labour to emulate all the flaws of failed economic mechanisms is a now reality from the 'grown-ups.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdryy33v13ko?s=09
Anyone who has truly deserted labour based on the last six months must be quite fickle
To me it shows how desperate people were for change and it's not being offered. (We all knew this though? - don't bullshit your way into power.)
Look, people have less patience with Labour and a higher expectations - it's been mess after mess with no hope and no actual decent effort to turn anything around.
Also, think along these lines - people are fatigued by neoliberalism which the Tories offer and now Labour; the change in party has largely been a continuation of that with lots of seriously stupid decisions.
People don't want austerity; we don't want to hear the city described as the jewel in the crown. We don't want to see our politicians loading up on free stuff etc. Hearing tough choices and no money - whilst offering up 3bn a year for Ukraine. Just plain stupid.
Material conditions. We're at the bottom people want out.
It's not rocket science.
Labour haven't even been able to offer competent conservatism either.
So what do you expect?
Personally I never expected labour to complete a miraculous turnaround within six months, or even within five years, so I'm not surprised that hasn't happened.
The positive economic news is welcome though, why wouldn't it be?
All I want is sensible grown up governance, and from my point of view that's exactly what we're getting so far.
I think if you looked at the past accuracy of poll results from 4.5 years before the next election you'd find they weren't very accurate so I don't think we need to worry too much about them.
Labour's strategy of doing the more unpopular, but necessary things early in the term seems clear enough so you'd expect some negativity in the first year or two.
But most voters aren't that engaged with daily politics and won't fully form their election views until much closer to the time, by which time I think we'll have seen some good progress across a range of issues.
Personally I never expected labour to complete a miraculous turnaround within six months, or even within five years, so I’m not surprised that hasn’t happened.
And why would the wider electorate expect a "miracle" within six months? They don't of course. The reason that nearly half of those who voted Labour in July say they wouldn't vote Labour if a general election was held now is because they strongly disapprove of the direction that Starmer is taking. It has nothing to do with a miracle not taking place.
I think if you looked at the past accuracy of poll results from 4.5 years before the next election you’d find they weren’t very accurate so I don’t think we need to worry too much about them.
If you look at past accuracy of opinion polls you will note that they are invariably correct. All the opinion polls for a couple of years before July's general election were predicting electoral meltdown for the Tories and a landslide victory for Labour.
That is precisely what happened - the worst election result in 200 years for the Tories and one of the biggest majorities for Labour in modern times.
The margin of error for opinion polls is typically about 3% which might have affected whether Reform UK won one seat or five seats but it certainly didn't affect the overall picture.
Labour are currently polling about 25-26% even if for whatever reason you wanted to double the typical margin of error that is devastatingly bad.**
Of course you might reassure yourself that with four and a half years before the next general election there is plenty of time to rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic but many people might suggest that a change of course would be more appropriate.
Edit : ** The Tories sacked their prime minister when their support fell that low. And at least they had the excuse that they had been in power for 12 years which typically even without a crisis usually suggests that voters are likely to want a change. What is Starmer's excuse?
First inflation was down and now growth forecasts are up. Great work from Reeves and Labour.
A great headline. Ever considered working for Pravda or Private Eye?
Personally I never expected labour to complete a miraculous turnaround within six months, or even within five years, so I’m not surprised that hasn’t happened.
I dont think anyone was dumb enough to think that though aside from some ultra new labourites who really did buy into the "after the election he will be radical" claim they were telling everyone else.
Labour’s strategy of doing the more unpopular, but necessary things early in the term seems clear enough so you’d expect some negativity in the first year or two.
Aside from this isnt really true. They have done some unpopular stuff but its tinkering round the edges and not really addressing the core issues.
so you’d expect some negativity in the first year or two.
.
Aside from this isnt really true
Indeed, Tony Blair's approval ratings were huge in the first five years of his premiership. They collapsed after he decided to throw his weight behind a hard-right US Republican president and backed a bloody war which achieved nothing significant beyond killing over a hundred thousand civilians.
All I want is sensible grown up governance, and from my point of view that’s exactly what we’re getting so far.
That should be a given (yes I know it isn't). A lot of people want some actual positive change as well as the grown up governance. You may be happy with that being all you get but it won't get them re-elected.
And why would the wider electorate expect a “miracle” within six months? They don’t of course. The reason that nearly half of those who voted Labour in July say they wouldn’t vote Labour if a general election was held now is because they strongly disapprove of the direction that Starmer is taking.
Because they have been spoon fed lies for years and told they can have the results they want via methods that chime with their own prejudices. That's not worked very well for the last 14 years of populist rule, lots of pandering to voters whilst the services and living standards crumble.
Labour are doing what they think is the right thing to sort some of the mess the Torys left, will they succeed, I hope so but hey might not. One thing I am more sure of is they are doing the things they think are right to improve the state of the country in the long term, that's not something you could ever accuse the Torys or Reform of.
I'm happy with the lack of popularity, the crunch will come in another 4 years, if people haven't seen the fruits of the unpopular policies by then the poop will hit the fan and we will be back to more downward spiral under the populist right. The fear is it will take more than 5 years to undo 14 years of Tory incompetence.
If you look at past accuracy of opinion polls you will note that they are invariably correct.
In terms of their accuracy when it comes to the outcome of the next election, they are fairly accurate at short range yes but not 4.5 years out.
For example 4.5years before the most recent election, which was early 2020, polls were showing that the tories were well ahead of labour. But as you know, when it came to the election, that could hardly have been more wrong.
Aside from this isnt really true. They have done some unpopular stuff but its tinkering round the edges and not really addressing the core issues.
I suppose that depends what you consider to be the "core issues" doesn't it.
I'm perfectly happy with what they've done so far.
The "tough" decisions that are being made, are the same "tough" decisions that have been made since 2008 (and before to a slightly lesser extent). So why would anyone expect a miracle from the same continuation of tough decisions that have demonstrably and repeatedly failed,
I suppose that depends what you consider to be the “core issues” doesn’t it.
Lets start with social care (which then feeds in healthcare) and housing.
What they have done is a few minor tweaks but nothing which would substantially undo the damage caused by the tories.
Lets start with social care (which then feeds in healthcare) and housing.
What they have done is a few minor tweaks but nothing which would substantially undo the damage caused by the tories.
Looking at the polls, the cost of living was by far the most important issue to labour voters, so falling inflation will go down well. 'Economy in general' was also of high importance so again the improved economic forecasts will go down well.
I'd expect to see improvement across a range of health related measures within five years. Six months is far too soon to be judging progress on that sort of thing imo.
In terms of their accuracy when it comes to the outcome of the next election, they are fairly accurate at short range yes but not 4.5 years out.
Er, they all ask the same question "how would you vote if there was a general election tomorrow?", none ask "how will you you be voting in 4.5 years time?"
Opinion polls give a fairly accurate measure of public opinion right now, and right now Labour are very deeply unpopular. Which is fine if you think they can suddenly become popular just before the next general election.
However the problem for Labour seems to be getting worse, not better..... third placed in poll behind the Tories and Reform? And governing parties tend to lose their popularity as time passes, not increase it. So good luck with that one, you're gonna need it.
Because they have been spoon fed lies for years......
......I’m happy with the lack of popularity, the crunch will come in another 4 years, if people haven’t seen the fruits of the unpopular policies by then
Well you can't have it both ways. If Labour's unpopularity is, as according to you, down to the electorate being "spoon fed" lies what will be different in 4 years time? Surely they will still be spoon fed lies or are you suggesting that whoever is doing the spoon feeding will suddenly and miraculously stop?
That's the problem in dismissing the electorate as stupid and gullible, it makes arguing that you will be able to convince them that you are right rather difficult.
And it's strange how the views of the electorate don't seem to matter to Centrists when they are in control of the situation and yet the views of the electorate seem to be absolutely sacrosanct to them when the Left suggests a radical alternative policy to the failed orthodoxy . Funny dat.
Er, they all ask the same question “how would you vote if there was a general election tomorrow?”, none ask “how will you you be voting in 4.5 years time?”
Opinion polls give a fairly accurate measure of public opinion right now, and right now Labour are very deeply unpopular. Which is fine if you think they can suddenly become popular just before the next general election.
The point is that today's polls tell us nothing about how people will vote at the next election, which is what matters.
Four and a half years is not "sudden", it's more than enough time for things to change. Just look at the polls for the last election which went from a Tory landslide to a labour landslide in the same time period.
Looking at the polls, the cost of living was by far the most important issue to labour voters, so falling inflation will go down well.
And thats due to labour policies how exactly? It also, of course, fails to account for the fact falling inflation just means prices are increasing less steeply. Lucky they didnt do a policy which will limit payrises eh?
Six months is far too soon to be judging progress on that sort of thing imo.
I do find it fascinating how the starmerites trot this out like a mantra whilst commenting how those less enlightened are easily led.
Six months is the perfect time to be judging progress because thats when there needs to have been a clear plan defined to run over the next four years to start, hopefully, giving results in advance of an election. If we take the adult social care reform review it should be obvious the problems there.
tinkering round the edges
Whilst, elephant in the room time...
The single biggest, easiest, immediate boost to the UK would be to rejoin the EU single market and customs union.
But, apparently, all talk of this is verboten.
Very odd.
it’s more than enough time for things to change.
Absolutely it is, I would not dispute that for a moment. So when is Starmer going to get on with it?
Who believes that austerity is going to deliver what voters want..... where's the evidence? Or are Labour going to go on a spending spree 6 months before the next general election?
Edit : Btw Tony Blair's approval ratings were exceptionally good in his first 4 years as PM, and yet despite that Labour still managed to lose almost 3 million votes in the 2001 general election. To expect Starmer to have crap approval ratings and yet Labour not to lose a significant amount of votes is asking for the moon on a stick.
what will be different in 4 years time?
Hopefully the NHS will be performing better, people will feel better off and council services will have turned a corner, that will help counter some of the lies and simple divisive solutions being pushed by the right. And yes a significant proportion of voters are stupid and gullible otherwise how do you explain 14 years of terrible Tory rule and the rise of Reform. Many of those not happy with Labour at the moment are hankering back to those good old days already. I think gullible and stupid is being rather lenient. Just wishing the electorate were more intelligent and thoughtful wont make it so, and pandering to their prejudices doesn't solve the severe issues we face either.
I think gullible and stupid is being rather lenient.
Yes all these centrists lapping up right wing propaganda to dismiss and dehumanise large swaths of the population, it must be very easy to not care about the victims of austerity and make excuses for poverty as being necessary tough choices when you consider you fellow man as lesser humans.
Many of those not happy with Labour at the moment are hankering back to those good old days already.
Really ? Have you got any evidence to back up that rather astonishing claim? Many of those not happy with Labour at the moment actually voted Labour six months ago, all the evidence suggests that they wanted change. What "good old days" do you think they are hankering for?
I think gullible and stupid is being rather lenient.
As a rule I tend to avoid lobbing personal insults at those with different political opinions to mine but since we appear to be going down that road...... I reckon that Centrists betray a spectacular lack of intellectual capability when their entire political argument appears to be based on the premise that the people which they purport to care about are stupid, racist, gullible, etc
It's pretty daft (I am being lenient) and I would say arrogant too only I know that they don't actually believe that nonsense and that they only say it because they can't think of any other explanation for a stuff which they don't really understand. It's simple, lazy, and it doesn't require too much thinking.
High court had ruled government was not meeting legal duty to clean up Costa Beck near Pickering
Reed’s decision to continue the legal action flew in the face of Labour’s stated commitment to clean up rivers, according to Penny Gane, of NGO Fish Legal.
“This new government came into power promising that cleaning up our rivers, lakes and seas was a top priority,” said Gane. “The fact that it is fighting our angler members in court to avoid doing the hard work necessary to bring about any improvements in the health of Britain’s rivers flies in the face of that commitment.
“This case and its results will expose the true colours of this new administration and help show whether their promises are backed by any real intention to change the status quo. We see no evidence so far that they want to properly regulate industries that chronically pollute our waterways.”
So why were Labour promising "miracles" to voters before the general election but now, six months later, fighting in the courts against being forced to comply with their legal obligations.
The appeal was begun by the previous Conservative administration, after Pickering Fishery Association, a fishing club in North Yorkshire, won a landmark legal case against the government and the Environment Agency.
So just carrying on with Tory government policy then, after criticising them. Well I guess that's what you do when you believe that voters are largely stupid and gullible.
Hopefully the NHS will be performing better, people will feel better off and council services will have turned a corner, that will help counter some of the lies and simple divisive solutions being pushed by the right.
Hopefully eh. The problem is will anyone notice. If hospitals are performing a bit better who notices who has not been in hospital for a while as the experience will still be crap. How are people going to feel better off, what have Labour done/are planning is going to cause that and council services much like NHS - small improvements won't be felt.
Hopefully eh. The problem is will anyone notice. If hospitals are performing a bit better who notices who has not been in hospital for a while as the experience will still be crap. How are people going to feel better off, what have Labour done/are planning is going to cause that and council services much like NHS – small improvements won’t be felt.
100%.
Another reminder for those still repeating the oligarchs propaganda "we can't afford it".
'We can't afford it's is nonsense. And no we don't need to go to corporations or other countries to get the pound.
But your chancellor is doomed to the monetarist framework that the pound is scarce. (Imagine not knowing every bit of sterling currency in existence came the BoE.)
Taxing wealth looks further away than ever but it really does need drawing in but they know high wealth drives assets which reinforces growth via finance, rather than productivity.
Reports are December was a downer in retail too. Can't see January being much better. Got to give them a few months here I suppose. Winter is bleak but it is their job to make things better.
I suspect ultimately interest rates will be cut (glad I fixed mine back in Feb) and they will get some growth from houses/mortgages and call it success.
BTW Are we generating our own energy yet? ? Or is GBenergy looking like another Labour dud?
The first tranche is more windfarms on more leased Crown Estate land (well, sea bed).
They needed private finance and then to start building... another vote-for-us-at-the-next-election-5-year-promise; they only appointed the board last week https://www.gov.uk/government/news/great-british-energys-start-up-board-appointed
I struggle to understand how GBenergy will work, the rhetoric sounds great publicly owned infrastructure, well paid jobs etc. But then the "private financing" just makes it look like its a reworked PFI scheme hidden behind political speak.
If it is done well with public interests at the heart of it, it could be excellent, but there is more than a whiff of just more corporate subsidies at the expense of public service.
Hopefully the NHS will be performing better, people will feel better off and council services will have turned a corner, that will help counter some of the lies and simple divisive solutions being pushed by the right.
On that - My annual pay rise offer was rescinded and revised downwards as a result of the increase in employers NI tax grab. My wife's school has opened a voluntary redundancy scheme as they wont be able to balance the books next year so have to shed staff. Again as a result of that last budget.
I imagine we are far from alone from feeling the impact of this last Budget. So feeling better off in a couple of years? Vanishingly unlikely if this last 6 months is anything to go by!
not even going to be discussed fir a year
No. The frustration is that it is going to be discussed in a search for consensus to support lasting reform, rather than seeing immediate action (of some unspecified form).
The trouble with soc care is because only 20% of people need it in intensive form and generally as they're shuffling off the stage, it's too easy to kick plans down the road when they come under political attack
My wife’s school has opened a voluntary redundancy scheme as they wont be able to balance the books next year so have to shed staff. Again as a result of that last budget.
Is that a state school? Because the employers NI increase is dwarfed by additional funding for schools, including funding specifically to offset the small tax rise.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/schools-to-be-fully-reimbursed-for-national-insurance-rise
https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/schools-to-be-funded-for-national-insurance-rise
I imagine we are far from alone from feeling the impact of this last Budget
Yes but there will be multiple budgets between now and the next election and I doubt (hope) they aren't stupid enough to do something like that in the budget running up to the election. It's generally the six months before the election that will drive voters. All the other changes become forgettable unless it's something monumental stupid like Brexit.
Yes but there will be multiple budgets between now and the next election and I doubt (hope) they aren’t stupid enough to do something like that in the budget running up to the election.
So you think they're going to pursue the tories old trick of buying off the electorate with tax giveaways and other stuff just before the election? You think that's ok? When it was the tories doing that there was universal outrage on here from the centrist/fake-lefty faction at the lack of sensible and grown up long term management of the economy. I thought Starmer and Labour were going to do things differently? Imposing austerity and then sugar-coating it with some token tax cuts just before an election is no different to what every tory govt has done in the past 40 years.
There are unlikely to be any tax cuts ahead. Recent tax increases are more about filling gaps of denial (see funding for special need provision in schools, and actually paying public sector staff their basic cost of living increase, things the last government pretended didn’t require funding) then they are about paving the way for tax cuts. Also, the big increases in public spending are mostly front loaded and aimed at the first few years of the parliament, not the pre-election years, because there is an urgency to so much if it. There’s no election cycle bribing planned there either, but it will take time for the positive effects of that spending to take effect… both in terms of that extra spending in the economy, and the arrest of decline and hopefully improvements in services.
