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If anything inflation in the short term will go down
Deflation is a real and present danger. Plummeting oil prices, low economic confidence in the general public and businesses, and higher taxes and negative comms from govt all point towards prices going down, and that doesn't even consider international factors such as Trump, Ukraine and the middle east. If that happens people will stop spending and that could create a negative feedback. I wouldn't be surprised in a couple of years if we're back to emergency cuts in interest rates and another economic crisis.
before they allow inflation to go negative.
Haven't shop prices been in deflation since August?
Haven’t shop prices been in deflation since August?
Dunno but the headline rate is currently still positive, although reducing rapidly and more than anyone forecasted. Plummeting prices is a (temporary) good thing for consumers, not so good for govt and the economy in the long run though.
Plummeting prices is a (temporary) good thing for consumers
Not if they are reluctant to buy something which might be cheaper in a month's time. And presumably worrying for retailers. It would appear that current retail price deflation is due to consumers being skint (rather than reduced production costs) so retailers are trying to entice sales by offering bargains. It could backfire if consumers wait for better bargains
Edit:
UK economy set to grow faster than expected this year
Up from 0.8 to 1.1.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yge6knpzdo
No fault eviction legislation, decisive action assistant rioters, long term strategy for the NHS, minimum wage increase, house building strategy, ban on new North Sea oil drilling, actively engaging with the EU, security pact with Germany, most strikes ended with ongoing talks with nurses union to end theirs, total lack of the tofu culture wars… Theres nuance behind much of that of course but it’s a damned decent start imo.
It would be if they'd actually done any of it!
The winter fuel payment fiasco is in (my mum's had her letter), done and a proper mess. Example: an estimated 35% of those eligible for the pension credit qualifier don't claim it and so won't get the WFP. Scotland isn't bringing this in for another twelve months
Free football tickets, done
Free suits and specs, done
No fault eviction legislation.
The one announced 18 months ago https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65612842 that still hasn't happened. It only got an airing under Labour in September
Decisive action against (I'm guessing 🙂 ) rioters.
Yep, but at the same time capping the number of Crown Court sitting days to 105000 (reduction from the uncapped 107700 days last year). Victims of assault/sexual assault, etc waiting even longer for their case to be heard so that they can move on in life
long term strategy for the NHS
"A new 10-Year Health Plan for the NHS is under way." https://www.longtermplan.nhs.uk/
minimum wage increase
Next year
ban on new North Sea oil drilling,
Licensing process began a year ago. Companies aren't going to give up on the costly bidding process without an expensive legal battle (admin, prep, surveys, bidding fees, etc.)
ongoing talks with nurses
Ongoing
You get the picture 😉
Plummeting prices? I need to shop where you lot shop. Oh... you mean the flailing fast fashion in industry...? That race to the bottom bubble has popped. If my food shop is ever cheaper, then I'll cheer.
Mine's a half Dazh, or 2/3s... I can't keep pace with others otherwise.... lightweight (and also too keen on the stronger beers). Anytime. Could do a matchy matchy bike ride as well... just been fixing the dropper in my SodaMAX.
timba, "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."
Give the poor sods a chance, this is a marathon not a sprint. Government will always be ongoing and they are attempting to do a 3 point turn... in a super tanker... with a buggered engine... in the middle of a hurricane... and the last captain/s were medivaced by helicopter due to substance abuse. Or something. 🙂
Plummeting prices? I need to shop where you lot shop. Oh… you mean the flailing fast fashion in industry…?
Daz said "plummeting oil prices". You could try shopping in a petrol station for that.
And no, not just the fashion industry, overall the retail industry is currently experiencing deflation for the first time since 2021 :
"Shop prices in deflation for first time in almost three years"
And the headline inflation rate in currently 1.7% so below the Bank of England "above 2%" target and therefore a reason to be concerned. Inflation dropped by half a percent in the last so it hasn't stabilised yet.
timba, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
🙂 🙂
5th July would have been a good time to start, having chosen his hiking boots during the previous four years
🙂 🙂
Yep, but at the same time capping the number of Crown Court sitting days to 105000 (reduction from the uncapped 107700 days last year). Victims of assault/sexual assault, etc waiting even longer for their case to be heard so that they can move on in life
There's been caps before - the cap was lifted two or three years ago, was 82k back in 2019/20 before it was lifted. Given the direction court backlogs have headed since, I'm not sure the number of sitting days is the chief issue.
Daz said “plummeting oil prices”. You could try shopping in a petrol station for that.
And? Ignoring all the posts since then, including your own, for what reason? Food prices haven't come down. Still a few things filtering through that'll push them up further still, sadly [don't mention Brexit]. Fashion retailers are struggling, for sure. Especially those used to selling cheap and disposable... people will wear what they have. More hard times ahead for everyone working in retail.
Budget looks damn good to me... investing in the right things... starting to shift the tax burden in the right ways... some good details for carers, and those struggling on Universal Credit... and something useful for pubs [ see you there ].
Ignoring all the posts since then, including your own, for what reason? Food prices haven’t come down.
What are you talking about? No one has ignored any posts, and no one has claimed that food prices have come down. I think you must be imagining stuff.
The British Retail Consortium article points out that there is retail price deflation. But feel free to challenge them and provide your own figures to prove them wrong.
I think you must be imagining stuff.
No, just being an idiot and engaging with your tiresome professional thread filling nonsense. Sorry. Thanks for reminding me not to.
- deleted -
Move to the Budget thread ... I delete.
There’s been caps before – the cap was lifted two or three years ago, was 82k back in 2019/20 before it was lifted. Given the direction court backlogs have headed since, I’m not sure the number of sitting days is the chief issue.
Agreed, but how does capping the number of sitting days reduce the backlog?
Capless is just that, not a cap and collar, so it self-regulates. Spare capacity? More courts sitting. Less capacity, fewer courts
Capping the number of days OTOH leads to empty courts and unnecessary admin days for people who could be dealing with the backlog
If this the current thread or it's Starmer the go to thread now?lol
Anyway...
"Covid corruption commissioner starts fraud probe"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg6r7zk47eo
I hope it's backed up with some prosecutions but I might be hopelessly optimistic there.
There will only be convictions if there is sufficient evidence to guarantee a successful prosecution, and I suspect what seems obvious to us might be harder to prove to the legal standard, sadly.
But God I hope some of them are properly held to account.
The most it will do is cause some embarrassment to a handful of the worst perps. I cannot see any verdict or result that downgrades their wealth one iota. And let's face it, that's all they care about.
Four years is a long time in which to delete emails, delete WhatsApp chats and 'lose' phones.
Mild censure is the worst any of them can expect. Prison time is a fantasy.
Yep this is the real two tier policing, immorality for thew rich and powerful is encouraged and rewarded or at best rarely legally enforced, while poverty is criminalised.
Can I just confirm that you’re having a pop at the Labour government for attempting to recoup the 8.7 billion handed out by the Tories to their mates in dodgy PPE contracts? Before they’ve even started?
You have all the paranoia of a conspiracy theorist binners. I cannot see anyone having a pop at the Labour government for attempting to recoup the 8.7 billion.
All I can see is the suggestion that anyone found to have behaved in a corrupt or unacceptable manner is unlikely to be properly punished, for example receive a prison sentence.
Which is a perfectly reasonable observation. What do think will happen binners?
You have all the paranoia of a conspiracy theorist binners
Eh? I’m not the one here who’s suggesting the outcome of this investigation is a foregone conclusion, am I?
There doesn’t seem to be an awful lot of point in speculating on it really, does there? Seeing as they’ve only just started. I’m sure they’d have started the investigation much earlier if they hadn’t have had to go through the hassle of getting elected first.
I can’t see why they wouldn’t prosecute the Michelle Mone’s or Matt Hancocks pub landlord/PPE supplier though? Though I’m pretty certain that the right wing media would immediately label them Stalinist show trials or some other such guff
The Mail is already complaining that the Labour govt are starting inquiries. They've complained that this Labour govt have started 61, ignoring the fact that the previous Tory government had 67 enquiries into plastic cutlery alone...Thank God for saving us from the horror of plastic sporks.
"South Western Railway to become first train operator nationalised under Labour"
Oooooh I forgot they were renationalising the railways 🙂
I very much want the people who profited from supplying sub-standard PPE (or no PPE at all) to face justice. I'd love to see some of them serve prison time for what they did. I'd like to see them in the stocks outside the Tower.
But with the kind of connections they have? With four years to have deleted emails, lost phones etc?
It's not even that I think we shouldn't try. It is just that slippery, well-connected scammers with four years head start on any investigation are going to be very difficult to bring to book.
I think the problem with prosecutions would be the fast track VIP lane was legislation passed by parliament. It was later ruled unlawful (I think through a challenge by the good law project). But while it was in place I am not sure anyone could be prosecuted for using their "connections" unless it is provable that money directly passed hands to access the fast lane. The corruption was legalised by an act of parliament.
Maybe some money can be returned through the specifics of the contracts and the failure to supply, but that would be largely about contract law rather than criminality IMO (I am not a lawyer).
Which brings me back to my previous comment
Yep this is the real two tier policing, immorality for thew rich and powerful is encouraged and rewarded or at best rarely legally enforced, while poverty is criminalised.
Another point is the way the corruption is paid for is usually separate transactions "I give you access for valuable government contracts, you book me to speak at your corporate do next year for 150k" drawing a direct line between those transactions is extremely difficult.
Inquiry cost at £10million +
Years before the report is released.
A few down the bottom of the chain hung out to dry
Countless repeats of the phrase “ we will learn lessons from this”
Gregg Wallace linked in somehow
Have I missed anything ?
Have I missed anything ?
What tyres for riding roughshod over public enquiries?
Covid "misspending"... of course there needs to be a proper enquiry... that might not lead to criminal charges, but that's not what they're for. Criminal investigations are ALSO needed.
As for rail... at least they're getting on with it... would prefer it to happen at a much greater pace... but suspect that'll be a constant frustration over the next few years... right direction but "why is it taking too long" is likely to be a pretty constant feeling for me... I'm resigned to that.
Blimey, I never expected Labour to lose their voter appeal so quickly. Not even six months in government and Labour are now polling less than the Tories were under Liz Truss, which is frankly astonishing.....23%!
The latest opinion poll not only gives the Tories a lead over Labour but it actually also gives Reform UK a lead over Labour ........placing Labour in third place!
When was the last time that Labour were in 3rd place? That didn't even happen under Corbyn.
https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-4th-dec-2024/
They are playing the long game and don't care after 5 months. See how amazing everything is after 5 years and every one will happily vote for them. Apart from it doesn't work like that these days and people tend to vote on bullshit like immigration rather than things that may have improved their lives very slightly. I have no doubt things will be better after Starmer than after 14 years of Tories but even if he comes close to his milestones the problem is most people won't notice it and just go along believing the shit they are told.
They are playing the long game and don’t care after 5 months.
I am not so sure. Labour will be fully aware that six months after the last landslide victory they won in 1997 they had a 30-40% lead over the Tories (the Tories definitely didn't have a lead over them!) and yet despite that Labour still lost nearly 3 million votes the following general election 4 years later.
Support for a political party which wins a landslide victory always falls in subsequent general elections. In every general election which Tony Blair oversaw support for Labour fell, it never went up.
I guess they could believe that they can buck the trend and that unlike under Blair Labour under Starmer will be more popular after 4 years in government, but I suspect the truth is that they are fully aware of the likely outcome.
The problem is that like the Tories, the LibDems, Reform UK, and everyone else, Labour have no solutions to the problems caused by neoliberalism and the inevitable voter dissatisfaction it causes.
Which means that in the absence of any radical social democratic or socialist alternative the main beneficiaries are very likely to be the far-right and the UK is therefore highly likely to tread a similar path to much of Europe and the United States.
Well I guess this might indeed be an example of Labour playing a long game. Keep reminding voters that the civil service is "a problem" and hopefully that will deflect some criticism away from politicians.
"Starmer and Dominic Cummings now agree on one thing - the civil service is a problem"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyv2g2pe5ro
“The British system of government responds to ministerial and particularly prime ministerial involvement and leadership … If you leave it to the civil service, however much talent there is, it will end up missing the mark because it lacks that political direction and that authority.”
Which means that in the absence of any radical social democratic or socialist alternative the main beneficiaries are very likely to be the far-right and the UK is therefore highly likely to tread a similar path to much of Europe and the United States.
Chances of a Farage premiership are looking ever more likely. Labour's problem no matter how well they do is that Starmer looks completely out of touch. He's a priveleged technocrat from the establishment, which is pretty much the last thing voters want right now. He obviously thinks he can repeat what he did with the labour leadership and turn things round but this is going to be much harder. How long before his MPs get twitchy and start calling for the likes of Burnham or Rayner who can connect more directly with voters?
people tend to vote on bullshit like immigration
Ignoring, dismissing, or inaction about people's concerns about immigration is a sure fire way of getting a right wing populist government.
Even if someone doesn't care about the immigration situation directly, I think they should care indirectly because if it doesn't get addressed, the electorate will keep shooting itself in the foot by electing people who don't act in their interests and do things like Brexit.
If the mainstream can't deliver on immigration, the electorate will hold its nose about a lot of other things and go for someone who promises to - which then may or may not be able to deliver. We'll keep doing this until someone succeeds.
An interesting article by Bloomberg with a lot of good points, although the last paragraph sums it all up nicely :
"Labour won their massive majority because people wanted change,” McShane said, referring to the Tories’ 14 years in power that came to an end in July. “Our polling showed most people felt nothing in Britain worked anymore. To turn that around will need more than a change of management.”
I particularly liked their "complex menu of promises", it kinda gives a perspective to Morgan McSweeney's modus operandi. First to win the leadership election he gave Starmer his "ten socialist pledges" and since then we have had Two Priorities, Three Foundations, Five Missions, Six First Steps, and now the very latest Six Milestones.
Just ****ing do it ffs, and stop talking about it.
Even if someone doesn’t care about the immigration situation directly, I think they should care indirectly because if it doesn’t get addressed, the electorate will keep shooting itself in the foot by electing people who don’t act in their interests and do things like Brexit.
Yep, people are being focussed to look at things they actually weren’t that concerned about.
I’m really in shock over how the next big thing is leaving the ECHR no-one was interested in that but now the solution to all the problems is this.
I’ve seen a whole load of Facebook accounts that have been renamed/hacked (around 21) and now show pictures of the good old days that then start banging on about immigration when people start innocently commenting.
Exactly.
I've a terrible feeling they've blown it though - but trying to not be that pessimistic.
They made their jobs even harder by absolutely dreadful Tory economics, freeloading and the awful media persona he seems to be building.
But, act now and do something big. Stop blaming the Tories all the time (it's not working) and crack on with the things that will make a difference. (If it involves the word reform before investment then you're on the wrong track.)
It's laughable that Freedland who spent all his time in his column making sure Corbyn never got his shot - now talking up big left-wing solutions that Starmer should take - or fall to Reform.
No shit Sherlock.
In one poll Labour are in 3rd place to Reform and the Tories.
If the mainstream can’t deliver on immigration, the electorate will hold its nose about a lot of other things and go for someone who promises to – which then may or may not be able to deliver. We’ll keep doing this until someone succeeds.
How exactly do you deliver on immigration? Get the net migration down to zero/under 100,00 which is very easy to do with the very big obvious downside being that the country would decline even more as a lot of services would then be finished off, house building screwed, NHS goals screwed etc,.
So does he prove a point by wrecking the country but being able to say but look net migration is down to 50,000 and that is what you wanted but look what happens when you do that (of course he wouldn't do that). The problem is that they would just blame him for screwing the country rather than linking it to him meeting the immigration numbers that 'everyone' wants above all else.
I always thought that getting a Farage government was the only way to prove to the people he appeals to that it doesn't work and immigration really is not the thing making their lives worse but then the US have just re-elected Trump without learning anything.
The immigration myth needs challenged not pandered to. Because immigration is the only thing keeping this country afloat. There’s certainly a bunch of sociopathic voters who would happily see the country sink to keep out foreigners but not enough to win an election.
What would need to be done as prerequisites before immigration can be reduced without it being damaging? Start there.
I worked with a lot of government and hence civil service organisations. Starmer isn't wrong, but I don't blame the civil servants. Since Gordon Brown had a massive purge of the civil service, a very large proportion of senior roles have been filled by contractors, or even by consultants working for the big accountancy and consultancy firms. It is in all of these people's interests not to complete work, but to prolong it as long as possible, and thus prolong their income stream. Low pay doesn't help - as a permanent employee, you aren't going to get near the £800-£1000 per day that the contractors get. This is a systemic issue, and until the civil service is once more seen as a worthwhile and rewarding career it won't be fixed. In other words, it will never be fixed.
Yesterday's "Observer."
Starmer to meet Saudi crown prince in push for infrastructure cash.
When on earth have we needed foreign investment to pay for our own state services? It's factually ridiculous and an illogical economic process.
He cannot get sterling from Saudi Arabia. He can get extractive investment - which needs to be converted into Sterling from our own bank. And then back again when the money is converted and profits removed.
Going to that well known originator of UK pounds - the middle east ?.
These total morons will do anything other than just make a case for spending the cash of its own central bank to give us the infrastructure we need.
We can't afford not to.
He moves from one lumbering economic disaster to another.
Foreign investment is mostly a sham and not necessary in this context. (There are side benefits but it's extractive of resources and money.)
Starmer has got some seriously stupid ideas.
"Prince Mohammed is believed by US intelligence to have ordered the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. In 2022, Starmer accused Boris Johnson of “going cap in hand from dictator to dictator” ahead of a visit to the kingdom"
So the same policy but a different prime minister, one which it could be fair to accuse of hypocrisy.
And then back again when the money is converted and profits removed.
So the Saudis won't be providing infrastructure cash for free then?
There’s certainly a bunch of sociopathic voters who would happily see the country sink to keep out foreigners but not enough to win an election.
There’s enough to win a referendum
Late entry for post of the year 2024.
Good news for Labour....... according to the latest opinion poll despite only 26% of voters saying they would vote Labour if a general election was held now they are still the most popular party.
The bad news is that 48% of voters say they would vote either Tory or Reform UK.
https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/
With Labour under Starmer now being about as popular as the Tories were under Liz Truss, something which the Tories never fully recovered from, is it too early to start speculating what Cabinet post Nigel Farage might be given in the Tory-Reform coalition government?
Or will Rachel Reeves cunning economic plan for growth scupper the hard-right's electoral ambitions? I say cunning btw because currently instead of growth the economic plan appears to be going in the opposite direction.
Apparently all that Starmer/Reeves inspired doom and gloom about the state of the economy has dented businesses and consumer confidence and has resulted in belt tightening.
Getting investment for infrastructure projects from countries with dubious moral standards is the sort of thing you see in the developing economies of Africa and Asia: which shows just how far down in the world standings we have slumped.
I came here hoping to see Bad Enoch's quote about sandwiches being for breakfast but I'm disappointed now
Let’s add the full quote. Kemi proving that after a couple of shifts in Maccy D’s, she is very much a working class woman of the people. Just one who has her minions deliver steak to her desk for lunch
From her Spectator interview…
Does she break for lunch? ‘What’s a lunch break? Lunch is for wimps. I have food brought in and I work and eat at the same time. There’s no time… Sometimes I will get a steak… I’m not a sandwich person, I don’t think sandwiches are a real food, it’s what you have for breakfast.’ Soggy bread is a no-no: ‘I will not touch bread if it’s moist
Said it elsewhere you can't run an economy on an ideology (Brexit) history is littered with examples. Starmer by clinging to the Brexit decision is supporting that ideology.
Labour should have started to renegotiate access to the single market, re-establish free movement (construction workers etc)
The current approach to the economy is at best a slightly more expensive version of the Tories.
As a Labour voter running a small business (13 people) the NI tax alone has stopped us employing another graduate for the foreseeable.
There is a recession coming that is now in plain site, just look at the discretionary spend markets classic cars, motorcycles (KTM, dealers folding) electric car sales, Restaurants.
I have never received so many emails from recruiters offering me techies (at knock down prices) companies like Insight gutting middle managment and sales teams in the IT sector. Smaller IT providers just shutting the shop like Poweron.
Hospitality chains (which we work in) all starting cost cutting exercises. The job vacancies posted by many are little more than marketing to give the impression they are growing.
In short there's a lot of smoke and mirrors.
The current GDP numbers are showing a slow death, not bad enough to warrant action so they will sit and wait.
I was asked the other day if I would vote Labour again and my answer was yes... but only because they are not the Conservatives or Reform no other resson
Said it elsewhere you can’t run an economy on an ideology
It seems Reeves thought all she had to do was talk a lot about growth and it would magically happen. What did she think sucking money out of the economy* to fill in imaginary 'black holes' in the govt balance sheet would do? She's in danger of going down as one of the most incompetent chancellors in history**, and she has Kwasi Kwarteng as a competitor.
*This dip in growth is just the result of talking about the black hole, the real pain resulting from tax rises hasn't even started yet.
**Think she'll be gone by next summer/autumn. Starmer has given her carte blanche on the economy so she'll carry the can when she fails to deliver the growth she talks about.
I thought Labour's vagueness about their plans for the economy ahead of the election was because they didn't want to say anything to jeopardise their chances of getting in as they knew the Tories had done a great job of getting themselves booted out of office. It is now very clear that Labour didn't actually have any plans for the economy.
if I would vote Labour again and my answer was yes… but only because they are not the Conservatives or Reform no other resson
To be fair that is the principle reason why Labour won a landslide victory on July 4 and why they are still just about leading in most polls, despite being relatively unpopular with voters.
Like you it seems to have very little to do with voters liking them.
Lucky Starmer, eh?
As a Labour voter running a small business (13 people) the NI tax alone has stopped us employing another graduate for the foreseeable
What about when you factor in the more than doubling of the employment allowance?
Our NI bill will rise by £16,000 per annum, I am replacing Double cab pickups with car allowances costing an extra £32k and have had the second hand value of four Double Cabs drop like a brick, up lift of corp tax probably £20k
So no.
We need to do about another 5 days extra consultancy a month to cover the above.
If you add up all taxes, vat, NI we give close to 60p in a £1 we earn to the government.
Another point which i feel is lost in all this is business resilience, we run a six to nine months resilience model, which means we can pay people while we adjust to market changes/recession etc. If you extract this level of cash from SMEs they can't build resilience and end up.hand to mouth, making people redundant and going bust.
True, there are a surprising number fully committed to the neoliberal ideology.
True, there are a surprising number fully committed to the neoliberal ideology.
I always find it amazing that those of us who would like our economy and politics to be organised differently are accused of being ideologues by those who think there is no alternative to the way things currently are. There’s nothing more ideological than sticking with something that doesn’t work.
With Labour under Starmer now being about as popular as the Tories were under Liz Truss, something which the Tories never fully recovered from, is it too early to start speculating what Cabinet post Nigel Farage might be given in the Tory-Reform coalition government?
That's quite a jump. You've obviously ruled out the possibility that SKS will offer him a job before then.
I am a socialist/capitalist (awaits howls of derision) i understand that to have a functioning society and there are plenty in the world we need to take social responsibility for the people that live here and contribute, then those who can not contribute need to be supported. This social responsibility requires money (taxes) plenty of tax take requires a fair and equitable contributions from those who make profit. This is not the case in the UK my business probably contributes twice as much as The Boots of this world by percentage. While the Rees Moggs of this world take "loans" water companies pay dividends from their organisation's that never make a profit.
I don't give much of a **** anymore as my life in work is just about over, I agree with Labour about Pensioners and Farmers but sorry folks this needs to go much much deeper than two minority groups taking a relatively small hit. The tax avoidance exercised by thousands of companies needs to be sorted. Look at the extremes Microsoft has 100 billion dollars cash on hand, so has Amazon, so has Facebook, the tech sector alone is sat on over 1 trillion dollars probably a lot more. There is so much cash in private sector organisations it's insane. This is not socialist capitalist it's profiteering.
This is not socialist capitalist it’s profiteering.
I understand your disappointment but we don't seem to have a Left Right government.
Well current government is neither, Blair was probably Left Right.