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Apparently many of the Tories in safer seats are more moderate (contrary to what you might expect) so by all accounts the rump that’ll be left after the election will be dominated by them.
Whether they move or whether they let the headbangers rip each other to bits remains to be seen though.
Labour don't believe the polls - and they don't want you to either
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c722eezx9n4o
An inside look at Labour HQ thinking.
Worth a read but I'm short, if enough people think it's a done deal and vote with their heart rather than their head and allowing for the millions of undecideds... we could still wake up to another 5 years of Tory on the 5th July.
Can you imagine? I dont even want to try.
Not sure what will happen to the old One Nation wing though.
The old ones will die off. The younger ones will be one pole of a big centrist Labour Party pavilion.
The Techne UK poll mattyfez posts is within a couple of %age points of the FT poll from yesterday. Putting those figures into the FT seat predictor looks like this (no Reform seats)
Electoral Calculus shows this (3 Reform seats)
I can’t see a deal between the cons and reform, but even if they did, a deal between labour and lib dems, for example, would dwarf those numbers.
The worry would be tories being a few seats short of the lib dems and then doing a deal with any reform MPs to become Official Opposition
But that's fairly unlikely, you'd hope
Rumours are that Sunaks seat is polling very badly for the Tories so they're pumping extra money into it
Anyway see another Tory party official has been caught placing multiple bets
I have very little doubt that Rishi will head for California
Rest is Politics podcast openly talked weeks ago about the rumour that Sunak already booked his kids into a school in California starting in September.
Anyway see another Tory party official has been caught placing multiple bets
My God, what an absolute bunch of utterly corrupt shit head, mother frumping * they really are.
They snaffled billions out of the economy but they just couldn't resist the chance to get a few grand more as the country burns.
Absolute f*ers and if ever proof were needed that all politicians are NOT the same, this is it.
... and breath.
is that all ? Even their "scare tactics" are falling flat. the Fail were reporting Lil' Rishi bailed on a campaign appearance with James Cracknell to shore up support in his own constituency (or James told him to do one you bloody Jonah! 😉 ) .
it's crap, but we're really playing shock and awe 4d chess in the minds of people smugglers. They do believe their own deluded rhetoric.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn440850elmo
is that all ? Even their “scare tactics” are falling flat
These utter financial morons, there is never a black hole in gv't finances because the government doesn't save to spend. Totally impossible.
2bn is nothing absolutely nothing in macro terms. Nothing.
Tories ran a 120bn deficit last year. So that, according to their shitty made up logic is a 60 x 2bn black hole.
Tories are totally and utterly useless at spending money.
(Absolutely nothing wrong with deficits they are a function of government spending and recessions often follow surpluses but for God's sake what do the Tories do with 120bn?)
Surely with the kind of protections emerging from the opinion polls, if we wake up to a Tory majority on July 5th it would look highly suspicious. It might even provoke unrest.
As crap as the Tory election campaign has been, losing their campaign manager and chief data officer with nearly 2 weeks to go is nuts. Especially when they're try to make sense of a constant stream of polls, trying to figure out where to allocate a rapidly shrinking pot of cash., to activists and candidates who were already despondent.
I mean, if you can’t trust a roomful of committed Tories, who can you trust?
There haven't been many stories that have emerged during the election campaign that can't be effectively summarised as 'Tory shocked to discover that other tories are tories'.
Even the betting scandal is only a story at all becuase a bunch of tories spoiled each others fun because it didn't occur to them that anyone else around them with the same inside info as them would do exactly the same thing.
It’s even better than that. The last ten days of the Tories election campaign (such as it is) is likely to be a steady drip drip of names being revealed to be under investigation by the gambling commission, which could well involve (if the rumours are to be believed) cabinet ministers
I wonder if these same people have also put bets on how many seats the Tories will lose?
Its a fitting end to this useless government, mired in a pathetic level of low rent sleaze
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1804779641195880932?t=95D9U8Ssg6yl_cu4lzvTGg&s=19
So there's a few people being investigated in the first wave - I'm guessing that's the spike in bets on the 17th which is probably the days immediately after Sunak made his decision to call the GE, those guys are toast, I don't see how that cant have used insider knowledge, I believe that they could do up to 2 years, though I doubt they'll see any jail time, tho the chief data officer placing multiple small bets and netting £1000s is the most vulnerable!
Then there's dozens in the 2nd wave: 20th, 21st- the day before the announcement, now a lot of those could be just acting on rumours, but my local tory candidate tweeted on the morning of the 22nd that he was suiting up & heading to London for a big announcement, I wonder if candidates were given 24hrs notice and some may have placed bets on the 21st or even the morning of the 22nd.....
Sunaks dilemma is that some in the 2nd wave may be legally if not morally in the clear, but he probably can't say for sure, so he could end up firing the bang to rights first wave ones only to have a drip drip of other names following
Interesting how much whinging there was about Rishi springing a surprise election on the party given how many now seem to have been aware of it.
The whingers are the Tories who didn't get to hear about the date and missed their chances to put a bet on....
I mean, if you can trust a roomful of committed Tories, who can't you trust?
FTFY
Tory shocked to discover that other tories are tories
In other news, rats put in sack together fight.
Great thread about how the original portillo moment went down
https://twitter.com/WasOnceLoved/status/1804652979976552640?t=h34-xCbqSxrvkwVrLa71Ig&s=19
“Great thread about how the original portillo moment went down “
And what stood out was what a decent bloke Portillo was in accepting defeat, and, I think through his TV programmes since, he has shown he is a very nice man. Clearly some of his policies were not liked by some, but that is true of many politicians of all colours.
And what stood out was what a decent bloke Portillo was in accepting defeat, and, I think through his TV programmes since, he has shown he is a very nice man. Clearly some of his policies were not liked by some, but that is true of many politicians of all colours.
I've met him a couple of tand he really is a very nice chap. Putting his former political allegences aside he is interesting to talk to, has a lot of interests and really doesn't like the way the Tories have gone in the last few years.
I think the advantage Portillo has over a number of other politicians is that his parents were hard campaigning communists so he's had the opportunity to see it from both sides.
But yeah, he was a Tory.....
He was a nasty hard right politician who has amazingly been rehabilitated as a cuddly colourful trouser wearer. This often happens with crazed head bangers - see Widdicombe on Strictly despite her handcuffing women during labour.
It’ll be interesting to see who manages this after the election. Priti Patel has already started her ‘journey’, presumably because she’s smart enough to see there’s no mileage in appealing to the fruit loops on the far right like Truss and Braverman.
I’m all for forgiving and forgetting, but Portillo can **** off.
It's from Alastair Campbell's twitter but I can't believe it's real. Then again, satire died some time ago and I'm no longer sure what is what any more. Either way, it seems a fair reflection.
JUST BEEN LEAKED NOTE BY HEAD OF TORY CAMPAIGN (the one standing in for the one on leave of absence courtesy of William Hill) MEMO ALL CANDIDATES … THE REALITY. 1. We cannot campaign on our record because nothing has improved since we took office. 2. The biggest change we made last Parliament was Brexit and we can’t campaign on that because the people who hated it hate it more and the people who liked it know we have ballsed it up. 3. We can’t campaign on our leaders because we have had five in eight years which suggests none of them were very good. 4. We can’t campaign on Labour being a risk to security and the economy because nobody can do worse than we have and anyway people seem to think Keir Starmer is pretty decent and he is for sure not Corbyn. 5. So LADS, all we have left is this … behave like we have lost, it’s all over bar the shouting, towel thrown in, and hope to God millions of people don’t bother to vote us out because they think somebody else will do it. I know it’s desperate and a bit anti-democratic but needs must. We’re shit and we know we are and so this is it!!! **** everything up. Crash the car. Make ourselves look even more unelectable and useless at campaigns. Willie Whitelaw used to talk about travelling the country stirring up apathy. That is all we have left. Do it. Talk up supermajority. I know it is meaningless but it is the only way to stop the superdefeat we all know we deserve. Cheers. Btw we’re having Sunday drinks 1pm. BYOB 🍾 🥂 ps new slogan. STAY AT HOME. DON’T VOTE. KEEP THE TORIES haha!!
It’s looking more and more like the political version of The Producers by the day. When do you reckon we’ll get Springtime For Hitler from Rishi? I’m saying Thursday afternoon
https://Twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1804788654608412971?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Bugger all d2d canvassing going off up here in Bassetlaw, which is surprising me.
There is an assumption we will just vote Labour 'cos of the red-wall implosion.
Arrogance across the board.
I'm sure social media is doing a great job.
Our Green candidate is called Rachel Reeves. Lmfao. Hope she pops in for a chat.
rone - you're in Bassetlaw constituency which is next to me in Newark.
There is canvassing in every constituency but it's a physical impossibility to do every household. Jo White (L) is predicted to have >80% chance of winning so the CLP will have planned their current electioneering programme with that in mind. Volunteers/activists are a limited resource and the campaign team will have planned their activities to deliver maximum benefit from that resource pool.
Eleven days and 6 hours until voting ends so...plenty of time for you to be canvassed.
A rare example of a graph with blue on it showing an upward trend
For some reason I thought it would have to be some kind of super sleuth forensic accountant (probably with the help of specially designed algorithms) who spotted the unusual trend in election betting.
Turns out not. Tories are just really greedy and stupid.
Aside from the Tory implosion, the only thing I'm enjoying about this election build-up is the selection of photos of Nigel Farage with his mouth open. They seem to sum him up rather well.
Point of order from the Twitter quote - it is impossible not to balls Brexit up because Brexit is a balls up. There is no version that is better than what we had.
Other than that, yeah only voter apathy if they think it is a done deal can screw this up now.
Good interview with Peter Obourne on why the Conservative party is finished, and a warning for where Labour is going.
FFS....wait a minute till I edit on ipad, why o why do I bother
Rone ....if you want to make a difference....get inolved....
I'm helping in my constituency to #gtto, helping to deliver leaflets etc. it might not be much, but I'm feeling as if I am at least involved with the democratic process. It might not be labour, but it's the best shot of reducing the Tories to a bit more rubble. I have had to vote tactically since 1997 in SE (worked then), and this one is probably one of the few opportunities I'll get to make my vote count even if tactically.
Anyone on the thread, I'd encourage you to make a difference, even if your tactical vote is not with your heart but your head. Put your effort into making a difference this time. Don't wake up in the 5th thinking if only we'd had another 100 votes ......
And then advocate for PR (of whatever flavour) so in future our kids' votes get the representation they deserve.
and a warning for where Labour is going
What moved to the more stable centre ground and away from extremes of the Left, ie the complete opposite of what the Tories have done, losing a small percentage of fringe voters who are never happy anyway and becoming more palatable to many more voters and having a chance to actually be the government, silly Labour.
I think the key takeaway from the Tories is that chasing the extremes of your part of the political spectrum just results in alienating more and more of the electorate and allows even more extreme parties to gain traction.
“Cleverly's car crash interview on Conservatives placing bets on the election “
I’ve just watched that bit of the interview asking him about the betting going on. Someone really needs to ask him, wtf are you doing there? Why cant we have honest Politicians, who say their mind, rather than trot out what their PA/Party chief says must be said and stuck to, which is surely what has happened here, he cant be that thick can he?
He could have shut down the questioning by saying ‘yes, it was wrong, and I hope all those doing it are found out and sanctioned’. That would have ended it, but he bluffed away, and wouldnt say anything that a ’normal’ person would say, so the interrogation continued.
WTF is it with Politicians, just say the right thing, dont beat about the bush, say your Colleagues are idiots for doing it, and it is over with. Make up rubbish and say we cant talk about it, and I’d rather not say etc, and it looks like he is as slimy as those doing the betting.
'he cant be that thick can he?' good question
Well he was the MP for Braintree, and like money they don't grow on trees either
"Cleverly" is proof that God has a sense of humour.
Inverse nominative determinism
Maybe in Essex they think he acts cleverly?
Why cant we have honest Politicians, who say their mind, rather than trot out what their PA/Party chief says must be said and stuck to, which is surely what has happened here
Don’t forget that the rumours are that at least one cabinet minister is implicated in this, so, you know…
he cant be that thick can he
Well….?
Jimmy Dimly has long been a byword for crass thickness. He's typical of the modern Tories - colossal arrogance matched to stupidity makes him think just trotting out any old crap will do. His ilk genuinely do think they know best and it is everyone else who is ill-informed or wrong.
He could have shut down the questioning by saying ‘yes, it was wrong, and I hope all those doing it are found out and sanctioned’
Even Gove called them out and said it was indefensible. What a difference leaving parliament can make.
He’ll be spending a week as a single mum after the election, start wearing red chinos, and take a very healthy interest in trains ( as opposed to lines).
Isn’t Jimmy Dimly a prime candidate for a ‘Portillo Moment’?
My present number one on that particular wish list is Liz Truss, but there are so many contenders.
My present number one on that particular wish list is Liz Truss, but there are so many contenders
I so want it to be badenoch. That would be perfect
Good to see unite union putting pressure on Racheal Reeves and her policies today, reminding her that its perfectly acceptable to borrow to invest, I can hope that the Labour Party will have it on the back burner to implement once they get in.
That’s the bit that scares me – that a lot of potential voters will do exactly that.
Taking no chances, postal vote on it's way now
Even Gove called them out and said it was indefensible.
He'll be glad, frankly, to have something to talk about other than Free Schools
Its come to light todaythat £36m was spent on new Free School thats now closing becuase it was built somewhere where there weren't any.... pupils.
Experts say there may be more shocks to come, because the government has taken years to reveal the capital costs of some free schools and has failed to publish any data on capital costs for more than four years.
I prefer the term “Putin’s Poodle”. Has a nice alliterative feel to it.
That's fair, but it would be unusual for someone to have their hand up a poodles' arse
it would be unusual for someone to have their hand up a poodles’ arse
True, but you know where dogs like to stick their noses, and Farage is surely brown noser.
He’ll be glad, frankly, to have something to talk about other than Free Schools
I bet they're are some huge shocks to come at just how badly the country has been run for years now. By badly, I mean in part, potentially criminal levels of fraud and back handers.
Anyone that still believes all politicians are the same needs their head tested imo. This government is unprecedented. It effectively normalised fraud, corruption and incompetence.
I'm expecting astounding revelations to come over the next year or so.
absolutely agree that we probably don’t even know the half of it right now. Since the fly-tipped sofa took over it’s been a snouts-in-the-trough free for all with a total disregard for any remote pretence that they’re in it for anything else other than their personal enrichment
I think little gems like this in today’s Observer are going to come tumbling out once they’re gone.
The betting scandal has conveniently highlighted just how ethically rotten they are
Tory MPs paid £100,000 of public funds to party’s in-house web designers
Any residual idea of public service went right out of the window when Johnson took over. After that it was just pocket-lining for them and their mates. ****s! A good number of them should be behind bars
To repeat/refer back to earlier posts...tories are rank amateurs on extorting funding; they're just so cheap and easily bought.
Be American - you want my support? That's a big fat 'donation' plus 50% of the upside.
Go large or go home; scratching your arse over the cornflakes or counting the squillions in SoCal - your call.
That's the thing that always amazes me, how cheap they are. Why don't we just have a whip round and buy some MPs? They're cheaper than some bikes.
It’s incredible isn’t it? They’re all just so low rent. Bargain basement corruption
Try buying influence in Russia? It’ll cost you billions
Here? Couple of grand and they’ll make laws on your behalf
Rishi’s PPS just threw his career away for 500 quid. 1% of the annual fees for the school he attended, which clearly didn’t teach him much about maths
Third rate car salesmen
bunch of punts*
*blatant plagiarism 🙂
WTF is it with Politicians, just say the right thing, dont beat about the bush
Think this is largely where the "they are all the same" sentiment comes from rather than the parties are all the same (seeing as a lot of people don't really know the difference between party policy!)
The problem with everyone being honest is that people would soon find out what a complete **** up they are making of pretty much everything so better for them to cover up with BS.
Good little video from the Beeb on why Labour is taking it's current stance on Brexit and why the smaller parties are treating the issue differently.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c72229542n0o
As anti Brexit as I am, I do understand why labour have to distance themselves from any thoughts of rejoining... For the moment. Running for government promising to reopen the Pandora's box of Brexit would be highly risky and an absolute gift to the Tories and Reform.
The general populous dislike Brexit but there are bigger fires to put out at the moment.
I tend to agree. Get the Tories out, get the urgent stuff sorted then he can unpick Brexit and rejoin EU by back door hopefully, but it'll be a super slow process
Rishi’s PPS just threw his career away for 500 quid. 1% of the annual fees for the school he attended, which clearly didn’t teach him much about maths
Again, he and the other Tory candidate accused (?) of dodgy betting were both state-educated. He went to Welshpool High School, leaving in about 2003. If he didn't learn much about maths, that's Labour's fault...
Great - I'd love to unpick Brexit and rejoin the EU by whatever means possible. Where do I sign?
Some will hate the idea, and want Starmer and co to be open about it now. In an ideal world I'd agree but this is a non-ideal system and the biggest fish to fry right now is winning the election.
I've been critical about people, including politicians, that are unable to change their minds when new information comes to light. We bring it on ourselves partly by demanding adherence to policy and manifestos when it is patently obvious a change is more sensible - U-TURN! we queue up to yell. Only a fool would start down a course, realise it's stupid and carry on. A fool that can't admit they're wrong or been misled.
So whether by accident or design - I wouldn't be at all averse to someone after a period of time in the job pausing, reflecting, saying that now they've all the facts the only way to achieve the cross border trade, the regulatory harmonisation, the economic prosperity....whatever, is to rejoin the EU in some form if that is clearly what is needed. It would be a logical step and might need some selling but the least of the worries is whether it's in the manifesto.
So yes - it irks me we can't effectively vote on that right now, but am I overly bothered in the grand scheme. Not really.
It’s incredible isn’t it? They’re all just so low rent. Bargain basement corruption
I think the thing to keep an eye on is not how much they'll sell their reputation for, but where they end up after the election defeat. I'm thinking £500 was intended to fly below the radar, the real bung was a lucrative seat on someone's board of directors.
From today's Guardian -
Good to see unite union putting pressure on Racheal Reeves and her policies today, reminding her that its perfectly acceptable to borrow to invest, I can hope that the Labour Party will have it on the back burner to implement once they get in.
Why doesn't every non-Tory wannabe MP when asked about budgets remind the interviewer that Sunak's Govt borrowed/over-spent £20bn only last month, and +£100bn in 2023?
Is it because they know that the next Govt (Tories included) is inheriting this mess and will have to do the same (for a considerable period)?
He went to a state school, looking like that?
I agree with the poster above that said these snippy comments about the guy's appearance are hypocritical and corrosive.
But I'm also just as surprised as you are.