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Jamze
Full Member
I thought 70% of the UK generally supported net zero/2050, or has that changed? Why is Sunak chasing 30% and putting off 70% of people?
That 30% tend to be of an, erm, certain demographic that makes them likely to vote Tory/reform.
The 70% wont vote for them, no matter what they Tories/reform say or pledge.
The Tories are now trying to prevent an extinction level event. Electoral wipeout on July 4th
They’re haemorrhaging their core racist pensioner vote to Farage and Reform so they’re now desperately trying to claw some back by apeing them.
It won’t work because Farage will just get ever-more extreme, so why vote for the low fat version of right wing nastiness when you can have the real full fat deal?
Its poetic justice for Johnson and the Tory Brexiteers using Farage and Co as convenient outriders to make the dog whistles they couldn’t, thinking they could just pop him back in his box when he’d served his purpose.
Instead, the right is now eating itself
****em!
Reforms manifesto is the right equivalent of the greens manifesto, they are parties who will never be near power, so have no real concern about ever having to integrate the actual policies, instead just having them down and preaching them gives them the backing of certain voters.
Not really. The Green manifesto details tax rises that will be needed for realistic improvements to public services and (obviously) the investment required in a sustainable future. The Reform manifesto ... errr ..doesn't. It's just a bunch of fantasy to fill out the paper because a single page with "we hate darkies" might be a little too obvious.
If the polls are to belived, then reform have stolen about 50% of tory (or would be tory)voters, give or take, it's split the tory vote pretty much in half.
Yes there will be some immigrants into reform from labour, but it will be low single digits in terms of percentage, if it's even quantifiable, IMO.
Was recently blocked from posting to jenrick's FB page after I had pointed out that many of his recent claims about what he had delivered for the constituency were on the spurious to porkies spectrum.
His constituency FB page are now putting up more posts which can be seen only by the anointed few.
Hustings at Southwell Minster on Thursday should be...interesting! There have been some suggestions that jenrick may be a no-show as he's on a hiding to nothing.
Leaflet delivery and canvassing continues - daily electioneering step count hit a new high of 25,200 last Friday.
Theres a real range in the polls at the moment
https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1802761286348063079
quite a few pollsters have changed their methodology to suppress the Labour vote, for several reasons; partly to make it match movements from previous elections, partly as a result of lib dems taking their vote in seats where they are direct rival to the tories (there seems to be lots of evidence of 'get the tories out' tactical voting) and partly because of something like the shy tory vote, but for voters saying theyll vote labour but wont vote or will vote someone else!
several polls also have Starmer approval rating at record highs- hes more popular on this one that the famous vote winning man of the people Johnson at the last GE!
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802756468715778363
the range of the polls right now is somewhere between a 1997 style victory and Ed Davey being the LOTO plus a few Reform MPs in the commons!
accruiskeen
Full Member
^^^^^^ That graph – just for showing Liz Truss’s meteoric rise! ^^^^^^^^^^^
A proper cliff edge. Lol
Those bloody lefty bankers have a lot to answer for. 😉
Here's those 4 latest polls in a seat calculator
I think the problem for pollsters is that the post brexit elections were abnormal so the usual rules don't apply, also the tories are being squeezed by Labour,, LD & Ref, making things very hard to predict
If the polls are to belived, then reform have stolen about 50% of tory (or would be tory)voters, give or take, it’s split the tory vote pretty much in half.
Which poll?
According the Redfield & Wilton poll it is 27%
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-14-17-june-2024/
If you scroll down to voting intentions of 2019 Conservative voters 27% are currently saying that they intend voting for Reform UK.
Here’s those 4 latest polls in a seat calculator
The last of the four predicts just 19 Tory seats ffs. It's obviously a poll which is not even worth considering.
A basic swingometwr style eat calculator wont work here because of the above mentioned tactical voting effect and Reform's variable popularity.
kimbers - the 4 polls you show all appear to be from Electoral Calculus.
In the context of the 'accepted/recognised' polling companies they look increasingly to be an outlier, consistently overstating the size of the predicted labour majority.
In saying that, I could be completely wrong; breakfast time on 5th July will provide the answer.
The last of the four predicts just 19 Tory seats ffs. It’s obviously a poll which is not even worth considering.
Thats from the deltapoll one you posted earlier
Electoral calculus use a national swing and model it on each constituency based on historical votes and turnout etc, a 3 way squeeze on the tories is devastating for them in this method and that's not factoring on tactical voting! Fptp
It does seem pretty wild, BUT if we were to see the other pollsters match the deltapoll / redfield numbers then it would be a real possibility (elec calculus model has predicted the winner in every one of the last 8 GEs and been within 4% of each parties seat count
Based on the average of all the current polls elec calc are saying at this atm
kimbers – the 4 polls you show all appear to be from Electoral Calculus.
In the context of the ‘accepted/recognised’ polling companies they look increasingly to be an outlier, consistently overstating the size of the predicted labour majority.
I put the numbers from the most recent polls (all fieldwork this weekend) into elec calculus
They are
redfield Witton (megapoll 10,000)
Moreincommon
JL Partners
Deltapoll
Survations own seat prediction currently has:
Labour on course for 262 seat majority.
LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2GRN 1
Yougovs latest looks like this
Bear in mind they recently changed their methodology to suppress the Labour vote
Without that change it would look like this
What's screwing the tories is that the don't knows, that a lot of people assumed would swing back tory are now saying reform and thats helping Labour in the red wall but even a small swing is helping lib dems in blue wall
If the polls are right & don't change (still a big if) then there's a real chance they could be reduced to a few tens of MPs
So if anything I think we’ll see a Labour majority
Nailed on surely?
Thats from the deltapoll one you posted earlier
Well if the seat prediction from that poll is 19 for the Tories then it is clearly not worth considering. Well certainly not in terms of seat predictions.
Obviously no one knows the general election result two weeks in advance, what it will be is pure guesswork. At best educated guesswork.
But certain things we can be totally sure of. For example we can be absolutely certain that the LibDems won't win the election, or that the Greens will not get 10 MPs. Or that the Tories will get less than 20 seats.
But certain things we can be totally sure of. For example we can be absolutely certain that the LibDems won’t win the election, or that the Greens will not get 10 MPs. Or that the Tories will get less than 20 seats.
But that's just a feature /bug of FPTP, once you get below 20% of the vote share you can have anything from 0-100 seats depending on what the other parties are doing and where your vote is massing
Here's those same numbers in the FT calculator
Fwiw I dont think it will be quite that bad for the Tories, not least because the 'supermajority' fear will kick in for many wavering tories in the polling booth
The ft poll of polls looks like this in their calculator which is more likely assuming the polls dont all start looking like deltapoll or redfield Witton
All it would take would be the tories to drop 2 points below where they are at the moment and a bit of tactical voting could see them entire parliamentary party fitting into a minibus
once you get below 20% of the vote share you can have anything from 0-100 seats
Sure, I get that. But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
So whilst I am prepared to entertain the possibility than next month they might well, possibly, get less than 30%, I think it is probably fair to dismiss the possibility of them recieving less than 20%.
It isn't going to happen.
Nice one Burger King… 😂
Interesting that for where I live, electoral calculus is now showing LD, as is FT. GetVoting is saying labour, and stopthetories not yet predicting.
LD feels more likely based on previous local authority voting and LD run district council, so suspect LD is the tactical choice, and Tories more likely to go LD than Lab
Be interesting to know the data/algorithm that GetVoting are using that low-balls the LD share.......if they get it wrong they could skew the vote and let the Tory through
Found it really handy that the current toady MP warned us that only voting blue could stop the snp taking his seat.
I have to vote snp to counter my father's blue vote (he has early stage dementia and is fixated on the independence possibility, which he is against. In a weird logic he is voting to defeat the snp because he hates the fact they are making him have to vote Tory)
But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
If 2019 showed us anything, it demonstrated that folks are more than willing to be transactional now. cf. public in historically strong Labour areas voting for the Tories to 'Get Brexit Done' and reject Corbyn. The Tories have ****ed it for a great many folks, including their own traditional supporters.
Yeah, one of the big mistakes I made about 2019 was that I was adamant that there was no way a long term labour voter was going to vote conservative. Just wouldn't happen I thought
Last night I was doing a twitter/bluesky roundup and came across an interesting comment which basically said ignore your personal biases and just focus on the data. Now I accept that the Tories have never dropped below 30% etc etc, and yes, it's not really a bias, but the data is telling us a very different story.
Attempting to predict the seats accurately must be very challenging. I'd be so happy to see the tories beaten down to third and 2 to 3 weeks ago that wasn't far off at all according to electoral calculus. Iirc tories about 63, lib 59 was showing, lab 485. Since then rishi has made several mistakes, Nigel has reappeared, lab has done well, however as of this morning lab down to 461, most of those seats are now predicted tory at 80, lib up a couple, reform 1.
I can't remember the %support numbers as I focus on the seats. My guess is the trend will continue with wavering tory voters deciding they will be well punished and a viable tory opposition is important so they will vote tory, resulting in them getting 100 or more seats. I'd love to see something happen that shifted public views and made people think lib or a lib coalition, would be the most effective opposition. Perhaps such a shift would see tory vote collapse resulting in them finishing 3rd. It's just a dream, but possible perhaps.
Anyway, we seem to be on track for a 200-220+ labour majority at the moment I reckon. Stunning and to think where things were in 2019.
But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
So what?
My point wasn't clear? Really?
I don't believe that they will receive less than 20%. In the same way that I don't believe any other extraordinary unlikely scenario.
Sure I am prepared to believe that it might be there worse general election ever but I'm not prepared to believe that they will be down to just 19 MPs.
Indulging in fantasies might be fun but a bit pointless if you are trying to have a serious political discussion.
When do we start thinking beyond getting elected? The Times predicts that LP and Tories would effectively freeze the NHS budget for 5yrs and the figures Reeves is tossing about are minimal. If she thinks she can get private business to invest, why haven't they done so since 2008?
When do we start thinking beyond getting elected?
What, the 2029 election? Can't see much happening in next 5 years based on the aims of Labour with zero ambition.
My only hope is that the Labour Party revolts when in power and ditches Starmer and Reeves within a year.
I don’t believe that they will receive less than 20%. In the same way that I don’t believe any other extraordinary unlikely scenario.
I’m with you on this one Ernesto. I don’t care what the polls are presently saying. There are loads of Tory voters who are presently flirting with Farage (and telling pollsters that), but when it comes to July 4th their muscle memory will default to putting their cross in the Tory vote, same as usual
I’d love to think the Tories are in for the day of reckoning they so richly deserve but I won’t believe it until I see it
But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.
Have they ever had to contend with another right wing option though ?
Anyway… more proof (as if it were needed) of how desperate, totally bereft of ideas and completely detached from reality they now are…
Jeremy Hunt: Liz Truss economic plans were ‘good thing to aim for’
“Hunt praised Truss for “accepting the mistakes she’d made with good grace” and repeatedly refused to accept her plans had left a long-term impact on the economy. When pressed on whether he thought the country was currently battling negative effects, he said: “No I don’t think it’s had an effect. I don’t think it’s the main cause.”
Christ on a bendybus! Where do you even start with that?
Just out of curiosity, has anyone here ever bene polled? Quick straw poll in the office shows that no-one here has ever been contacted by a pollster. So who are they actually contacting and how? Do they rely on people who still have their home numbers in the phone book?
I read the hunt article earlier.
Utterly bereft of competency now, and it almost seems impossible but the rhyming slang of his name just gets more and more accurate
Have they ever had to contend with another right wing option though ?
Obviously the Tories have not been the only right-wing option in the last 200 years.
Edit: And in the case of Reform UK Nigel Farage he loves to claim that it is a totally new party but as usual he's talking bollocks. It's just the latest name for the Nigel Farage vanity party.
franksinatraFull Member
Just out of curiosity, has anyone here ever bene polled? Quick straw poll in the office shows that no-one here has ever been contacted by a pollster.
yes, twice but online
Farage, whatever his party is called this election and his supporters summed up perfectly by John Crace
Nigel Farage’s Reform contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on – but who cares?
My point wasn’t clear? Really?
No, it was clear - I'm just countering it. Simply saying that they have never before got such a low percentage isn't a good reason to predict it won't happen this time. Everything that has ever happened happened for the first time at some point.
Fianna Fail went from 41% vote share in 2007 to 18% in 2011.
While Fianna Fáil’s slap on the wrist for economic mismanagement was somewhat enjoyable it’s really not comparable: a first preference in PR:STV isn’t the same thing as a vote in FPTP. They went back into government in a subsequent election.
Sun Exclusive......
KEIR FOR THE BEERS Boost to pubs as Labour promises new powers to protect closure-threatened boozers — and hints beer duty will be frozen
😕
with lots of Rachel Reeves "Johnsonesque/Farage" smiley pint pulling/supping photo's....
The Tories lost 33% of their vote share in Scotland in 1997. Why not the same across the UK this time? These Tories are far worse than Major's Tories.
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak? I would imagine it would also boost the Plaid Cymru and SNP votes as ordinary people there recoil from the prospect of Eng-er-lund triumphalism (and fall victim to envy).
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak?
Did you not watch them the other night? The only beneficiary of this present Euros in the UK are going to be the suppliers of Jude Bellingham replica Engerland tops
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak?
The Euros finishes after the election!
When do we start thinking beyond getting elected? The Times predicts that LP and Tories would effectively freeze the NHS budget for 5yrs and the figures Reeves is tossing about are minimal.
Reckon it'll be much the same as the Blair govt minus the largesse on benefits. Pretty sure the NHS and other public services will get a huge cash injection and public sector workers will see more generous pay deals. They'll have such a huge majority they won't have to worry about any questions about where the money is coming from and Starmer won't want to start his premiership by pissing off his MPs by sticking to tory austerity.
Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak? I would imagine it would also boost the Plaid Cymru and SNP votes as ordinary people there recoil from the prospect of Eng-er-lund triumphalism (and fall victim to envy).
If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents. The red top papers will be joyous and all will be well in our sceptic isle for a little bit.
Our 'septic isle'?
If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents
Not if everyones in the pub, absolutely leathered
If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents.
Why? I'm not aware of any of our political parties being pro football or anti football relative to any other. Who are the voters who'd see the results on the football pitch and have it influence which box they tick in the voting booth? Which are the parties that can make a claim on the success or who you'd blame for the failure?
Why? I’m not aware of any of our political parties being pro football or anti football relative to any other.
Recent sporting success and/or a military conflict result in an uplift of support for current governing party. Its well evidenced, even if not at all logical.
Recent sporting success
making it to (but not having yet competed in) the quarter finals by election day counts as success? 😉
Starmer can also claim the win as they wouldn't have won if Sunak was still PM
a first preference in PR:STV isn’t the same thing as a vote in FPTP.
Who said it was? The point is that established parties sometimes loose their tradition support, and often in startling ways. That its never happened to the Tories is probably only indicative of the fact that they've never managed to alienate quite so much of the electorate before.
That its never happened to the Tories is probably only indicative of the fact that they’ve never managed to alienate quite so much of the electorate before.
post 2008 and the legacy of austerity that followed has blown up a lot of the traditional base for all parties, for all this talk of a supermajority & Tories out of power for 20 years, Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever
making it to (but not having yet competed in) the quarter finals by election day counts as success?
You're not an England fan are you?
post 2008 and the legacy of austerity that followed has blown up a lot of the traditional base for all parties, for all this talk of a supermajority & Tories out of power for 20 years, Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever
This + look at France.
We're electing a left-ish government because we're fed up with the other one, not because we're moving to the left. It just happens that we're oscillating back that way.
Reform is only going to get worse. And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I'm very worried about.
Simply saying that they have never before got such a low percentage isn’t a good reason to predict it won’t happen this time.
I have already conceded that anything can happen. I said that the LibDems could win the election, the Greens could get 10 MPs, and the Tories could get just 19 seats.
None of those things will happen of course.
Although we will know soon enough if I'm wrong and the Tories are down to just 19 seats, in two and a half weeks actually, so not long.
19 seats was an outlier so is unlikely. But LD in opposition is much less unlikely, albeit probably not the most likely outcome.
My guess is:
- Chance of result according to the poll average: 50%
- Chance of majority being much slimmer than polls due to electoral calculus being inaccurate: 30%
- Something totally bat-shit happening: 20%
And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about.
France is a good example, a far Right party has tidied up its image a lot, Reforms manifesto was pie in the sky nonsense, LePen's policies are still contradictory & damaging (Macron is banking on this) but its far more polished in its delivery
Our ‘septic isle’?
Normally sceptred would be used but since the sewage discharge scandal we're septic!
Dear god, Rishi must be really desperate now! He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement, who made his usual amount of effort…
Saw my first Reform sign today, by a farm field.
All it would take would be the tories to drop 2 points below where they are at the moment and a bit of tactical voting could see them entire parliamentary party fitting into a minibus
Yes, changing that FT poll to Tories = 20% gives this in seats.
LD official opposition (though do have to compare that with CON+DUP?) and still no Reform seats.
Drop the Tory share another couple points and Dr. Who beats the evil Master in Clacton.
by a farm field.
Is that better or worse than a country mile?
Jesus, Boris looks like he will be needing the nhs bigtime shortly
There was a tory sign in a local farmers field near to town here in galloway, until it was spray painted with "vote tory get ****s", very apt.
It was replaced and the next night same thing......good....good.
Jesus, Boris looks like he will be needing the nhs bigtime shortly
I'd prefer an undertaker.
Postal vote just arrived.
And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about.
I'm not as it'd just tip us over to leaving the UK.
If the Sun are running Pro Starmer headlines, even just lighthearted ones, that is quite significant.
Yep, could be a trigger for me too as 2029 is good timing for retirement. Luckily I married a Belgian (not many people say that) so have a choice of countries I can live in although any of those will be far right by then!
Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever
Very true. I live in a solid labour constituency but got a lib dem canvasser pop by. Seriously considering switching.
Dear god, Rishi must be really desperate now! He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement, who made his usual amount of effort…
Wonder how much the sex yeti got paid for that?
And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about
.
Yeah unless you have faith that Labour will deliver something satisfactory by 2029, and let's face it Labour themselves are claiming that they will be very restricted in what they will be able to do in government, then 2029 is a big worry.
Who will people who are dissatisfied with a Labour government's performance vote for in 2029?
I don't think that 5 years is enough time for the Tories to regain their credibility in the eyes of voters. So what's the choice - Reform UK or the LibDems?
14 years on the LibDems are still struggling with credibility issues since their decision to enable a Tory government and wholeheartedly support austerity. I am not convinced that another 5 years will definitely be enough.
That leaves Reform UK then.
And I'm not even sure that they will need to go into coalition with the Tories, in just two years Reform UK have gone from 5% support in the polls to more than treble that.
I reckon that too much close association with a discredited Tory Party might actually damage Reform UK. Farage likes to portray Reform UK as a "new" party untainted by the failings of the "establishment" parties.
What I do know though is that the Left and progressive parties need to get their shit together for the next general election if the threat posed by Farage is to be minimised. How likely that is to happen depends I guess on how scared they are of a Farage government. I certainly wouldn't be too confident that they will.
UKIP and the BREXIT party both managed to poll above 25%.
They'll probably be a fourth incarnation by 2029, under yet another name, doing the same, or better. But we have seen these bubbles of support for Farage's lot before. And will do again. If they work out how to connect with the youth vote as well as the oldies, as their political compatriots in many other countries have, we're in big trouble. For now... don't buy into their hype or give credence to the snakewater they're selling.
Yeah unless you have faith that Labour will deliver something satisfactory by 2029, and let’s face it Labour themselves are claiming that they will be very restricted in what they will be able to do in government, then 2029 is a big worry.
I disagree a little. What they need to do is deliver a bit more than people expect. They need to get to the “well it’s not perfect, but it’s better than I expected” position.
And to do that they need to underplay like nobody’s business in the first couple of months.
New poll shows the gap between Labour and the Tories widening, not narrowing as might have been expected more than half way through an election campaign.
Labour's lead climbs to new high as Conservatives fall further
It also confirms the other poll that claimed 27% of 2019 Tory voters are now backing Reform UK.
The share of Conservative 2019 voters switching to Reform has climbed four points to 27% this week
Reforms' growth actually holds its own risks, especially if it gets a few MPs.
The grifting egomanicacs that tend to be drawn towards leadership roles in populist right wing politics will soon chafe under the yoke of Nige, who doesn't seem to like sharing the limelight or the funds and the growth of Reform will soon lead to some hilariously vicious infighting and factionalism.
Of course that's not to say they can't truly bugger up the country before that happens, but it's a matter of when, not if.