If the opinion polls of the last year prove anything it is just how unnecessary tactical voting is to keep the Tories out.
They are so deeply unpopular that nothing can save them.
I see Douglass Ross has forced out an unwell MP to get his safe seat, classy
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798636341586284835
Not one single opinion poll since the first week of October has put the Tories above 29%, not even complacency can save them.
We had all this nonsense the Tories might win with the London Mayoral election, Sadiq Khan easily won.
Probably true, but it's become tactical voting to absolutely put the boot in.
I wonder if there's yet a reverse TV to come into play, and whether some will not particularly be enamoured with the last 14 years but baulk at an absolute annihilation scenario, and return to CON or even TV for them in some areas so they aren't.
The FPTP to ludicrous levels; I was explaining to my kids who both get to vote for the first time.... you could have in theory a 3 party system where each gets give or take 1/3 of the votes, except one party gets 650 votes more than the others, across the whole country. But if that was 1 vote per constituency then with an almost exact third:third:third split one party has all 650 seats and the others have none. They couldn't believe it.
In an alternate multiple universe that's happening and in one of them all 650 seats are tory.
The latest YouGov poll has switched methodology to MRP which disadvantages Labour a bit but still gives them a 21% lead.
It is also the first post Farage announcement poll and it gives Reform UK a scary 17%.
*Edited to give the correct Labour lead.
if you’re not in a target seat then you won’t see them.
Very much this, Davey's strategy is to focus their limited resources on seats that are winnable for them and with the exception of Shefield Hallam I believe these are all currently Tory held.
As a smaller party with no mega-donors bankrolling you and operating in a FPTP system this what you need to do if you actually want more MP's.
Lib Dem voters also tend to be a fairly switched on bunch (hence why Voter ID probably actually benefited them slightly despite them being against it on principle) and therefore very likely to vote tactically if they can see the LD's are not a realistic contender locally.
We may not need every vote for Labour to win, but I think we really do need the Tories to have as big of a kicking as possible. Why? Because it will shake up politics, and we need that. Since Johnson they have simply not turned up, they've been pissing about half-heartedly chasing old right wingers and not bothering to run the country. A historic wipeout will send a message that this isn't acceptable, it doesn't work and politicians need to pull their finger out. They need to be found out by the electorate.
Yeah, everyone needs to get out and vote. With what they’ve done in the last 14 years, but particularly the total chaos since Johnson came in to oversea the Brexit disaster he created, I’m amazed there’s anyone left who is still going to vote for them. Maybe lots of Tory voters will simply stay at home? Probably not though. They seem bloody-minded like that. So everyone else needs to counter that
Absolute electoral annihilation is exactly what they so richly deserve for the damage they’ve done to this country. Quite a few of them belong behind bars!
Is there a reliable tactical voting site?
One that I looked at advised labour even though they are not canvassing in our area.
Lib Dem voters also tend to be a fairly switched on bunch (hence why Voter ID probably actually benefited them slightly despite them being against it on principle) and therefore very likely to vote tactically if they can see the LD’s are not a realistic contender locally.
If they are that switched on they will realise that Rishi Sunak has zero chance of winning on July 4th.
I totally agree with desirability of a huge unprecedented Labour majority, and for two reasons - firstly it dramatically reduces the chances of the Tories winning in 2029 and secondly it will put huge pressure on Keir Starmer to deliver.
The only thing I question is the feasibility that the Tories might win.
Was this in the 19th Century, or earlier?
Probably.
Which shows just how out of date FPTP is.
I've been listening to The Rest Is Politics podcast this past couple of weeks, there's no love lost for the Tories, and they're laying the blame for losing the election at the Johnson/Truss fiasco.
and for two reasons
I'd add a third reason which is that the bigger the majority the harder it will be to keep the party in line and the most likely source of effective opposition is going to come from Starmer's own benches.
But I'd still say you are better off voting for the candidate who most closely matches your values. MPs are more likely to oppose their own party if they see there is a threat to their seat from a particular direction.
MPs are more likely to oppose their own party if they see there is a threat to their seat from a particular direction.
But that will happen anyway in the latest ipsos scenario of 488 Labour seats.
If Labour ends up with 488 MPs on July 5th most of them will be under the threat of losing their seats in 2029. They will need to keep their constituents reasonably happy for the next 5 years.
But I’d still say you are better off voting for the candidate who most closely matches your values.
This. "xx candidate won't win so I won't vote for them" is self fulfilling.
We may not need every vote for Labour to win, but I think we really do need the Tories to have as big of a kicking as possible. Why? Because it will shake up politics, and we need that
That didnt really happen in 97. For the same reasons as it would be unlikely to happen now.
“xx candidate won’t win so I won’t vote for them” is self fulfilling.
I think that the July 4th general election will be fairly unique and historic, something which should be factored in imo. I don't think normal rules apply.
I have never seen the Tory Party on its knees as it currently is.
they’re laying the blame for losing the election at the Johnson/Truss fiasco.
The one constant with whoever is nominally ‘in charge’ of the Tory party at any given time is that everything is always somebody else’s fault
On the morning of July 5th, as Rishi heads for California, they’ll be like rats in a sack
The brazeness of Ross is amazing
forced an ill MP out against his & his local association wishes
parachuted himself in on a shortlist of one by giving everyone else a few hours notice (overnight) to submit their CVs for the job
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798641379394101434
That didnt really happen in 97
I was young during the Major govt but whilst it was politically rubbish I don't think it was as bad as the current lot.
But, these forecasts don’t account for Reform, which if them being only 2 pts behind Con overall, would make this would look very different.
I think it will be interesting to see what the polls are doing after all the candidates are declared and we see who is standing where. Will Reform's polling go up or down? Will Galloway's mob have any impact?
Deadline is today, isn't it? I wonder if the Tories have got all their candidates lined up.
deadline tomorrow I think
A lot of bad blood kicking around atm, just wait for MPs to defect to reform at last minute and go public over weekend so leaflets can get changed before printing, could be carnage this weekend
No idea if reform have all candidate sin place or not either (which could save the bacon of some Tory MPs)
This. “xx candidate won’t win so I won’t vote for them” is self fulfilling.
'My candidate is definitely going to win so I won't bother voting' is just as dangerous.
See a certain referendum in 2016 for details, the trains out of London were screwed that day and I know multiple people who got home late, hungry and tired and didn't then go out again to vote because the general consensus in the media was that Remain was going to win it anyway.
Some serious regrets there.
The thing that would really kill the tories as a party would be if they weren’t the official opposition if there was a way of making this the libdems that’d be much more impactful than a huge labour majority. I mean id like it to be the greens but we’re in the real world.
‘My candidate is definitely going to win so I won’t bother voting’ is just as dangerous.
I think is a fair point, difficult tightrope to walk. I do not want to wake up on July 5th and feel the way I felt about the referendum result.
If somehow the LibDems became the official opposition, it would be a happy day, but I'm not sure I trust the forecasts that much locally.
I don't think anyone is saying, 'I'm not going to bother voting.' More, 'I'm going to vote for a candidate/party I actually support rather than the red one.'
"This. “xx candidate won’t win so I won’t vote for them” is self fulfilling.
‘My candidate is definitely going to win so I won’t bother voting’ is just as dangerous."
Not a problem inherent in PR. You know your vote is going to count!
Unfortunately, I don't think the LD can get close to being the opposition. There will be a certain amount of 'shy tory' and 'shy reform' going on in the polls.
This is one prediction I'd be delighted to be proved wrong on though.
If they are that switched on they will realise that Rishi Sunak has zero chance of winning on July 4th.
Meaning they should do what?
But I’d still say you are better off voting for the candidate who most closely matches your values.
What if that candidate has no chance of ousting the incumbent Tory but another one has a good chance if people vote tactically?
On the morning of July 5th, as Rishi heads for California, they’ll be like rats in a sack
I wonder who'll draw the short straw and have to make the "yes well, the results have been disappointing but..." speech?
Well this is making me feel a bit better.
She's absolutely right to not raise taxes for working people, in fact she should probably cut them further. There's a huge amount of scope for raising taxes on business and on capital gains and assets though, and it seems like that's going to be the only option. Hike taxes on rental income for landlords and put a 100% tax on capital gains for second homes and you go a long way to solving the housing problem too.
No idea if reform have all candidate sin place or not either (which could save the bacon of some Tory MPs)
If ukip dont have candidates in certain seats then that would be making the tories very nervous indeed (actually possibly not since they seem to be winging it but if they were professional it should).
Since having no official ukip candidate and then the tory switching to be official tory and unofficial ukip would give them the best chance of winning seats.
Whereas if they defect whilst there is an official candidate for ukip that gets messy and confusing.
If they are that switched on they will realise that Rishi Sunak has zero chance of winning on July 4th.
Meaning they should do what?
That is up to them. But let's not pretend that Rishi Sunak has any chance of winning the general election, he hasn't.
Obviously things could well change in the next 4 weeks but until they do there is no point in claiming that he is in with a chance.
And the current situation is not in anyway comparable to the EU referendum.
Edit: If I was a proper full on LibDem supporter/member I would definitely vote LibDem, there is no chance of a Tory PM after July 4th and I would be looking at effective opposition to Labour, so the greater the LibDem vote the better - every bit little counts.
Hike taxes on rental income for landlords
...you do realise who will pay for those increased taxes!? It 100% won't be the landlords.
Edit: If I was a proper full on LibDem supporter/member I would definitely vote LibDem, there is no chance of a Tory PM after July 4th and I would be looking at effective opposition to Labour, so the greater the LibDem vote the better – every bit little counts.
There was some electoral analyst saying that (presumably in England) where it's not clear how to vote in any given seat to GTTO, then people should vote Lib Dem. I'll try and find the reference for this later...
It’s all theoretical for you though… isn’t it. The rest of need to place our real actual votes as best we can.
No, it is based on opinion polls, by-elections, and local elections.
The Tories are not going to win the general election next month. Anyone claiming that they might is basing it on an unrealistic theoretical scenario.
In theory the LibDems or Reform UK could win the election on July 4th, but everyone knows that they won't.
It 100% won’t be the landlords.
Needs rent controls too obvs. TBH a good start would simply be to crack down on the landlords who evade paying tax on their rental income. The main aim though should be to force them to sell up and return their properties to the market for others to buy and live in. An escalating CGT on second homes would be very effective in encouraging them to sell up and would raise lots of cash.
