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I think grimep is a silly trolling nob
The problem with that sort of behaviour is that in this case it really isn't harmless. It validates the opinions of others who might not be thinking about it at all and that slows down all efforts to do something about it. Normally I'm good for letting people post what they like but in this case it's dangerous.
and they are a nob of course
Best for Britain have published their tactical voting guide and latest polling. https://www.getvoting.org/
Just checked mine...Jesus ****ing Christ...
Reform will never be in power so it kind of doesnt matter, but their magic money tree plan is to suspend interest payments on UK debt/gilts
Its more subtle than that and there do seem to be some pretty good arguments in favour of the proposal although dont take it to quite the extreme reform do. The ECB for example already does a limit variant.
Just checked mine…Jesus **** Christ…
There's a quandary...Conservative tactical vote? 🙂
I don’t subscribe to or follow any political people, accounts, blogs, pages etc.
Im guessing that the algorithms place me as ‘undecided’. I’ve removed both TikTok and X apps as all I was seeing were Reform posts.
i think there’s a real possibility of a EU referendum situation where the Right Bots are all over social media in a way that Progressives aren’t and the election results will reflect this.
But I hope I’m wrong
BillOddie
Full Member
There’s a quandary…Conservative tactical vote? 🙂**** that.
Not a choice I need to make thank goodness but if my seat was between Tory and Reform... id be voting Tory.
Yuk. At a macro level though, it's the right call to make, imo if course.
I’m very mixed, on one hand the oxygen of publicity vs on the other, sunlight as a disinfectant.
I have no problem with him being platformed, it's the lack of scrutiny of what he says that drives me nuts. It's only that uncritical airtime that allows him the semblance of credibility - Paxman would have stopped this nonsense long ago.
There’s a quandary…Conservative tactical vote? 🙂
**** that
Never say never
As an aside, and a serious question, is a small number of reform seats acceptable in exchange for the Tory's extinction and third party status? For arguments sake, less than 50 Tory seats
is a small number of reform seats acceptable in exchange for the Tory’s extinction and third party status? For arguments sake, less than 50 Tory seats
Great question, I'd love the Tories to not even be the Opposition and Reform MPs to be found to be a load of work shy grifters, but it's a high risk strategy
Just had an election leaflet from Reform through my door, complete with AI generated image of huge numbers of brown people walking from the cliffs of Dover. Obviously it's AI generated because that hasn't actually happened. Utter ***** but fortunately I don't think they'll get a look in according to polling in my constituency. Still disappointing that it's the only piece of election literature I've had so far.
Never say never
As an aside, and a serious question, is a small number of reform seats acceptable in exchange for the Tory’s extinction and third party status? For arguments sake, less than 50 Tory seats
IMO yes, because they can't achieve anything with 12 seats and like the UKIP/Brexit/reform councillors or MEPs they'll be shown up for how crap they really are. I'd put money on at least three being booted out of parliament before the end of the end of the second year.
I have no problem with him being platformed, it’s the lack of scrutiny of what he says that drives me nuts.
Yep me too. If he's the head of a political party (again, just like all the other times he's been in one) just treat him as if he's a mainstream politician and demand the same transparency that you'd expect from Labour or the Cons. It's the pass that's offered because the press insists on treating them like a single issue party, even though that's not how they even see themselves . It's bonkers, and it treats the public like idiots and mugs
Latest Opinium/Observer poll
Using these figures FT seat predictor says
Electoral Calculus says
but their magic money tree plan is to suspend interest payments on UK debt/gilts, that would surely lead to the markets going nuts & inflation which would be Truss levels on steroids
This is not correct.
They are talking about not paying interest on reserves for commercial banks at the BoE. It is not necessary to pay this bill at all. It has nothing to do with government spending or gilts. It's just a gift to commercial banks that keep these reserves for liquidity purposes. It is a shame that it's Farage that has said this. But he's correct in terms of technicalities.
The problem with this Truss situation is it has people generally terrified of doing anything that involves government spending, and the details are often incorrect.
It's not a magic money tree plan either.
It's worth noting this money that has interest paid on was a spill over from Q/E - so created by the BoE in the first place.
Reform will never be in power
Never say that. The orange buffoon / failed reality star is president....
The other issue is the public platform they have been given to spread their toxic views.
but I have no idea why climate change denial is permitted.
I really don't see the problem. So grimep has decided to finish off the very last bit of any credibility that he/she/they might have possibly have had by repeating some widely expressed nonsense, what's wrong with that?
If the problem is that it was designed to provoke a reaction why have so many people reacted?
Personally I welcome it as firstly it gives an opportunity to refute, if anyone can be bothered, something which many hard-right commentators and politicians constantly claim.
And secondly coming from grimep it pretty much sums up the likely validity of the nonsense.
I don't really understand why it causes so much outrage. How many on STW now doubt that there is man-made climate due to grimep's daft comment? I would suggest 0.
So Farage PLC is offering tax cuts of near double the amount promised in Mad Liz's catastrophic budget.
The thing is though, he will not be forming a government so can offer whatever the hell he likes.
Oh, they'd save £50 billion ridding us of government wastage apparently.
Sure they would, sure they would...
There is no climate crisis, worsening or otherwise, and even if there were, Britain’s essential use of oil and gas would have no effect on it.
Jesus Christ, are you really as thick as shit in real life or is this a performative act?
How many on STW now doubt that there is man-made climate due to grimep’s daft comment? I would suggest 0.
Zero, but that's not the point. It's like imagining that the nonsense that politicians come out with is meant to sway our opinion. It's not, it's for the people who are swithering. Allowing that stuff to even exist gives it some form of legitimacy. Let it exist and on the next AI learning pass that may be considered as a valid view point as STW might be considered authoritative on some subjects
Allowing that stuff to even exist gives it some form of legitimacy.
That stuff exists whether you like it or not. Banning it on STW won't stop it existing. Challenge it, ridicule it, or ignore it, would be my preferred alternative to banning it.
So much for the liberalism of middle-class liberals eh?..........BAN IT!!!
Edit: And however much you, and me, would prefer it wasn't, climate change denial is an issue in the current general election campaign.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
STW might be considered authoritative on some subjects
Okay, I think you may be getting carried away now.
ernielynch
Full Member"but I have no idea why climate change denial is permitted."
I really don’t see the problem. So grimep has decided to finish off the very last bit of any credibility that he/she/they might have possibly have had by repeating some widely expressed nonsense, what’s wrong with that?
I tend to agree with that. Grimep makes perfectly normal posts on other subjects in the forum.
When he posts controversial views it just serves as a cautionary take to people of where "doing your own research" can lead you. There is also no problem in my eyes of pointing out the error in his thinking, mind you.
I don't think he deserves the ban hammer or anything, not that, that's my call to make!
All the above is just my opinion of course.
Oh, they’d save £50 billion ridding us of government wastage apparently.
Very interesting Reform 'contract' launch. Positioning themselves to the left of Labour on the economy and to the right of the tories on social issues. Farage unashamedly calling the policies a radical alternative to the status quo. I guess now we'll see just what appetite there is in the country for radical change as opposed to more of the same.
This stuff is going to stick. Think I'll make a prediction now that he'll be PM within 10 years (assuming he can last the distance).
^^Lol, good video, never seen it before. Spot on too.
At least he hasn't learned the lessons of the far right in France and elsewhere and he's still attacking the young for their 'poisoned' minds.
Beyond reframing, though, the Rassemblement National also proposed a number of concrete fiscal policies that target youth voters. In her 2022 presidential platform, Le Pen promised to eliminate taxes for those under 30, offer financial assistance to student workers and increase housing for students.
Le Pen and the Rassemblement National haven’t convinced everyone. It remains a primarily anti-immigrant, anti-European nationalist party that often faces accusations of Islamophobia, racism and homophobia.
When Le Pen advanced to the runoffs after the first round of voting on April 10 – barely edging out far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon – huge numbers of students turned out in protest across France, declaring that they would vote “neither Macron, nor Le Pen.” Many young voters in 2022 abstained from voting altogether – an estimated 30% of those under 35 years old in the first round, climbing to a historic 40% in the runoff.
Hopefully Farage will never figure out how to reframe his xenophobic message in a 'positive' way and realise if he stops trying to appeal to racist pensioners by demonising the youth and actually offers the youth something to vote for (no matter how unrealistic) then he's in with a good chance of winning next time.
At some point our hair will literally be on fire and Grimep and the other apologists for the rapacious hypercapitalists who fund this idiocy in order to maximise profit and nothing else will still be saying there's no climate change.
My instinct is to say, of course he's allowed to say that here, freedom of speech, though etc., but then I think, hmm, maybe people said the same about sexism, racism, ablism etc. Perhaps climate denialism should be treated with the same social contempt.
There's a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage's kind of Andrew Tate nihilism. Trump benefits from it in the US and it's always been a feature of mainland European proto-facism.
There’s a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage’s kind of Andrew Tate nihilism.
I guess we won't really know for sure until after the election but around 6% of young men support Reform was the last number I could find. Not sure if the number of young women even registers so yes, if Reform has any meaningful support among the young it's from men.
That could all change if anyone realises that no one is courting the youth vote and decides to start making promises.
Hopefully Farage will never figure out how to reframe his xenophobic message in a ‘positive’ way and realise if he stops trying to appeal to racist pensioners by demonising the youth and actually offers the youth something to vote for (no matter how unrealistic) then he’s in with a good chance of winning next time.
I think for someone like Farage you can only appeal to one or the other, not both, if you appeal to the youth it upsets the older racists & appealing to old racists upsets the yourh
There’s a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage’s kind of Andrew Tate nihilism.
Indeed it *normalises* such behaviour and attitudes. It makes people think this is the standard of intelligence and integrity needed to hold a public office.
Go back and watch a few videos of people like Major, Brown, Blair, Ashdown, Cable and Thatcher (gasp). Whether you agree or disagree with them, they all spoke with a belief and a vision of what country they wanted and why they thought it was good for the country was a reasoned and intelligent process. Many of our current politicians look like spitting image in comparison.
20 years ago, men and women divided equally in relation to their voting left or right. I saw some stats recently which looked at the US, UK, Germany and South Korea and currently the divide between the sexes averages out at around 20 points.
Younger men being attracted to reform could just be a reflection of this general trend. In order to counter that trend one would first have to ask what over the last 20 years has caused this divide?
Let it exist and on the next AI learning pass that may be considered as a valid view point
That's a real concern. Freedom of speech etc is fine, but with a lot of online stuff being potentially shaped by AI, facts need to feature higher than, well, bollocks.
Leaving aside STW being a basis for truth and integrity
Banning it on STW won’t stop it existing.
No but it will stop the thread about the election getting derailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate. No one's got time for that shit anymore.
I think grimep's natural home must be Reform - they want to eradicate Net Zero, by just denying the science behind climate change.
If you want to understand the scientific basis of Reform’s climate policies, head to the party’s website.
It says trying to reduce CO2 emissions to tackle climate change is pointless.
“Climate change has happened for millions of years, before man made CO2 emissions, and will always change”, its website says.
“We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it”, it concludes.
It also appears British people don't groom kids - nice assumption that...
Stop Child Grooming Gangs
Deport offenders holding dual citizenship. Make
child grooming an aggravating offence. Improve
safeguarding of victims and vulnerable. No bail for
grooming gang offenders.
There's so much in their contract that doesn't hold up to seconds critical thought - unfortunately most of their fans seem to ignore this
There’s so much in their contract that doesn’t hold up to seconds critical thought – unfortunately most of their fans seem to ignore this
I would guess they don't possess any critical thought so only option is to go with it.
“We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it”
They are going to be shocked at what happens when the parts of the world near the equator get even hotter/wetter/unliveable, you know the bits with the brown people...
brown people are not a concern as they won't be coming over here, they won't be allowed to remember.
Turns out punching Nazi's is now frowned upon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv225k88nldo
(according to some locals, Steve made the first move)
No but it will stop the thread about the election getting derailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate.
But that literally hasn't happened.
Only because you bought it up again!
Suspect many of you on the thread are already registered - but just a reminder to anyone who has not yet registered to vote that you have until 23.59 tomorrow Tuesday to do that online. Spread the word people.
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote
I think this needs to be settled by a political episode of Gladiators, beamed out live to the nation on prime time Saturday night telly.
This explains why Ed Davey is doing all these stunts. He’s obviously in training.
Only because you bought it up again!
That makes no sense.
You talk about wanting to stop the thread about the election getting derailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate.
I point out that actually it hasn't been detailed into a fruitless discussion about the climate.
And your reply is "only because you bought it up again". Did you misread what I wrote or something?
There I go again not talking about climate change?
Well yeah, I'll own up! 😀
And in other non-climate related news Labour are up one point from 4 days ago in Redfield's latest poll.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-14-17-june-2024/
I really did expect Labour's share to start falling back a bit as we approached election day but that hasn't started yet, in fact it's going in the opposite direction!
is 18% rock bottom for the tories or can they go lower ?
Polling can go lower for the Conservatives. Expect vote share on election day will be much higher. Whatever the current Farage vehicle is… it must make polling harder to get right when it’s in full bullshit flow… soaking up attention and fleeting high support with its “radical” noises and “reasonable” looking fascism.
Anyone's guess but generally polls narrow in the close run up to an election date so it's probably as low as it'll get.
Anyone’s guess but generally polls narrow in the close run up to an election date so it’s probably as low as it’ll get.
They could narrow but with Reform being the party they narrow against. With Tories continuing to also bleed support to Reform.
Yeah 18% is certainly expanding the envelope of possibility. Lower seems unlikely but hey, Tories "hold my beer" etc
Actually somewhat disappointed with the lib dem polling. Under the circumstances I'd have thought upper teens.
I'm beginning to wonder if we might see a proper Tory pile on. "Finish them!"
For the LibDems it is about increasing their share of seats, not votes. Every chance they could have a lower share of the votes, but much higher share of the seats than at the last election, if people vote tactically. Plenty of LibDem supporters will be voting Labour in seats where that is needed to kick out Conservatives, lowering their polling when the question is asked how people intend to vote.
Under the circumstances I’d have thought upper teens.
Yeah it is a little surprising under the circumstances but I wouldn't be surprised if support for the LibDems shoots up in the last couple of days of the campaign, as well as that of the Tories, as people become convinced that Starmer will have a huge majority.
I think a lot of people are still a bit sceptical of the certainty of a large Labour majority, whatever the polls say.
I see the little fella had been at the dressing up box again.
Why does he do this? He looks so horrendously uncomfortable wearing hard hats and stuff that normal people wear to do actual proper jobs, it just massively magnifies how far removed from that world he is.
I suppose if you’re on an oil rig though, at least you’ve got a legit reason for arriving by helicopter
I think this needs to be settled by a political episode of Gladiators, beamed out live to the nation on prime time Saturday night telly.
This explains why Ed Davey is doing all these stunts. He’s obviously in training.
If that's the methodology, from what I've seen of his training, Libdems are in danger of finishing 12th behind even the weird sexytime tantric lady
Just read the last two pages. I kept agreeing with that ernielynch chap. Terrible. I need to dust down my pro-Europe, pro-Britain, anti-Brexit, middle class educated liberal credentials and start shouting about banning things. 😉
Mad Fadge’s manifesto made less sense that a Truss-tastic budget. And would hurt the country more.
But anyone who wants to defend it is welcome to try.
All just my opinion of course.
Farages ‘contract’ may be a load of old swollocks, but he’s once again leading Rishi and chums around by the nose
Wherever he goes, they all trot dutifully along behind him. They’ll never beat him in a head to head for the racist pensioners vote, but the man-frogs anti-net-zero statements over the last few days had Lil Rishi flying out to an oil rig to tell them all how much he just loves burning good old British fossil fuels.
Its tragic really just how terrified they are of him, Nige is technically already Tory Party leader as he’s essentially writing their policies for them on the hoof
https://Twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1802683854358004159?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Mad Fadge’s manifesto made less sense that a Truss-tastic budget. And would hurt the country more.
Reforms manifesto is the right equivalent of the greens manifesto, they are parties who will never be near power, so have no real concern about ever having to integrate the actual policies, instead just having them down and preaching them gives them the backing of certain voters.
The way I'm reading the various voting intention polls is that reform have basically nicked approximately 50% of the Conservative vote... Give or take. Which can only be good news for labour, lib dems and greens.
Con + reform is still not quite good enough to match labours lead.. So if anything I think we'll see a Labour majority, or possibly a Labour deal with the libs and /or greens.
The numbers just don't add up for a Tory /reform deal.
Although voting intentions don't translate directly into seats won so it will be interesting to see what seats are won and by who..
I think that one of the things about mathematical models, including polling models, is that the greater the change that is predicted, they are vastly more uncertain.
I am not a statistics expert, but I am an amateur mathematician, and AFAIK there is no way to correct for this other than guessing.
For that reason I don’t think that we’ll see quite the wipeout that the polls are predicting.
Won’t a lot of previous Tory voters suddenly vote Tory again if they think they are heading for that level of wipe out. I can’t quite believe a 300+ seat loss (but happy to see one).
Quite possibly but as I said above, I *think* it won't matter given labours lead..
I don't think Labour will win as many seats as the voting intention polls suggest, but worst case scanario Labour will have a small majority and could probably schmooze the greens and lib dem officials enough to boost them a bit further if push came to shove.
The thought of having a few reform MPs is a little concerning on the surface, but ultimately they are 99.9% tory defectors anyway, so it's a reasonably comfortable position for labour, IMO.
they are parties who will never be near power,
I do wish folks here wouldn't use phrases like that. It is too reminiscent of political thinking of about a century ago, when it was thought that funny little man with the silly Charlie Chaplin moustache was just a minor nuisance and would never amount to anything.
He and his type need watching as he is dangerous even if he doesn't yet have any political power
The way I’m reading the various voting intention polls is that reform have basically nicked approximately 50% of the Conservative vote
Not all the Reform UK vote comes from the Tories. I can't remember the precise figure but something like 30% comes from Labour.
And there is some evidence that in the last week or so Reform UK has been eating into the Labour vote - several polls have put Labour on less than 40%, that hadn't previously happened for about 2 years.
Labour’s extreme net-zero proposals put the unnecessary demands of green ideology ahead of the needs of British families For no benefit they will push our nation’s finances to a cliff edge, hike your bills and hand tyrant’s like Putin the power to blackmail the UK.
thats quite some mental gymnastics.. please tell me thats the parody account?
I’m afraid not. That’s the prime minister of the UK singing straight from Farages climate-change-denial playbook
Sunaks and Farages messaging is now pretty much identical on this and many other issues as they race to the bottom
He really is a weak and pathetic little man
I thought 70% of the UK generally supported net zero/2050, or has that changed? Why is Sunak chasing 30% and putting off 70% of people?
Not all the Reform UK vote comes from the Tories. I can’t remember the precise figure but something like 30% comes from Labour.
Depends on your sources, but yes labour will have lost some votes to reform, that goes without saying as quite a lot of labour supporters are anti-conservative, and massive anti-EU/racists, etc, but 30% seems a bit of a stretch. Either way..
The numbers don't add up from my perspective.
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094
Blimey, the latest poll gives Labour a 27% lead over the Tories. That's the biggest Labour lead in about three weeks.
After dipping below 40% last week for the first time in about 2 years the Labour share of the vote is starting to nudge towards 50% again.