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UK Election!

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I can recognise that Putin is good at what he has done (as was Hitler until his downfall) but that is very different than saying I admire them as that suggests I agree with what they have done as well as how successful they were at doing it.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 5:42 pm
TedC and TedC reacted
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I’m firmly middle class now, though bought up in a council house. My wife is from a lower middle class East London Conservative family, we are both centre left voters who will vote labour, with a green tilt to our politics. Both kids are firmly on the left of politics, with my daughter highly into trans rights and very pro Palestine. She is still voting labour though as there isn’t the perfect one issue major party.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 5:52 pm
pondo, silvine, kelvin and 5 people reacted
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Polling expert Sir John Curtice on Reform and Lib Dem gains

Curtis quoting average figures from several polls.

LAB 41%

CON 20%

REF 16%

LD    12%

Popping those into the FT seat predictor gives REF 10 seats and LD the official opposition.

Screenshot 2024-06-14 at 16.52.04

Different figures here though

Resulting in:

Screenshot 2024-06-14 at 16.58.05


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 5:52 pm
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to go back to PR for a minute - this is the sort of thing that deals with the far right parties.  remember "win" in PR democracies like France means biggest party.

France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

Le Pen is around 35% of the vote - in the UK that would give her a majority more than likely.  As it is she remains a long way from Power.  Same in the Netherlands.  Geert Wilders got 25% of the vote but "won"  I can't remember yet if he managed to cobble a coalition yet or not.  I knew he accepted he would not become PM

Remember both of these " far right" parties actually sit in a very similar place to the tories.  So PR has prevented their equivalents of Johnson and Truss from having majorities - instead they remain a minority party.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 5:56 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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So if a country went full right wing, would PR prevent or advance a left wing party to be able to become a 'majority'?


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 6:05 pm
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I can recognise that Putin is good at what he has done

There's a difference between what he has done (created a fragile dictatorship that's burned a massive amount of wealth, killed thousands, enriched a venal elite and prostrated Russia before China) and what he intended to do (make Russia great again).

But "say what you want about Hitler..." statements are always going to be stupid or fascist sympathising.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 6:05 pm
supernova, silvine, twistedpencil and 3 people reacted
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Not entirely sure debating the merits of the effectiveness of despots is even a thing for anyone with a ****ing brain cell.

"Yeah, Putin is an excellent c***, but not quite in Pol Pot territory."

13e


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 6:09 pm
susepic and susepic reacted
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So if a country went full right wing, would PR prevent or advance a left wing party to be able to become a ‘majority’?

Politics changes.  You will have maybe 6 parties and for any one party to get a outright majority is rare.  So even if you have a coalition of the hard right and centre right they will still struggle to gain and keep a majority.  Smaller parties still get representation.  So its highly unlikely any right wing ( or left for that matter) would be able to take the country "full right wing"  As above - PR would have prevented Johnson and Truss.  PR politics tends to coalesce around a centre


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 6:16 pm
ratherbeintobago, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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Posted : 14/06/2024 6:23 pm
supernova, Jordan, Poopscoop and 9 people reacted
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<hr />

People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner, now they are overwhelmingly from a totally different class orgin, typically bankers and barristers.

I think this is the problem with politics as a whole in the UK these days. It seen as a career move rather than a need to fight for your beliefs for the vast majority , certainly front line, MPs.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 6:24 pm
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France isn't proper PR, it's a two round system which has its own distortions. If it were proper PR the RN would have a third of the seats in the assembly. As it is they have 32/577


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 6:26 pm
tjagain, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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Ta educator.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 6:59 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
 igm
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People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner

Or indeed Tony Benn 😉

I didn’t take it as criticism and I’m quite enjoying the discussion - reminds me of the dinner table growing up.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 7:18 pm
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People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner, now they are overwhelmingly from a totally different class orgin, typically bankers and barristers.

Just for clarity I have no idea why I wrote that! I certainly didn't mean to!

Things might not be great with today's Labour Party but it isn't so bad that a Labour MP is now typically an ex-banker!

What I meant to write was : People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner, now they are overwhelmingly from a totally different class origin, typically academics and barristers.

In my defence I was being harassed to get off my phone as we apparently had a bus to catch.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 7:18 pm
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PR would have prevented Johnson and Truss

PR would have prevented Brexit. But I've already grumbled on this thread about Blair reneging on implementing the Jenkins Commission recommendations.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 7:21 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
 igm
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In my defence I was being harassed to get off my phone as we apparently had a bus to catch.

#NotABot - proof of humanity there I think


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 7:23 pm
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just waiting to bring up his record as a defence lawyer in defending terror suspects

IANAL but aren't they compelled to defend the cases that come through their door? Was it a conscious decision or an obligation?

On to private schooling; interesting numbers on More or Less this evening

1/ average UK state school class size is 22.something (22.6, I think...) - obviously varies and some subjects, like compulsory English or Maths are bigger than say Physics, but that's the average.

2/ Private school population is 7% of the school population ie 93:7 ratio

3/ Survey suggests 5% migration of private school pupils into state school if VAT is levied.

4/ By my maths that's a 0.35% increase in the state school numbers, so 93.35:6.65

5/ So that would in essence move a 22.6 pupil class into 22.6 x 93.35/93 = 22.7. Virtually no difference in class sizes and well absorbable by fluctuating birth years as it is.

6/ In fact there's a high birth year hump at about 13/14 years old right now (like a snake eating a football) that will move through; primary school numbers are actually declining and that in turn increases capacity. Nett result that state schools can esily absorb that number.

So the study suggests 95% of 7% = 6.65% of UK pupils will pay the extra VAT; 0.35% will transfer to state school. So 1/300 is disadvantaged - if indeed a state school education is really that disadvantageous.

FWIW we mulled it for my two, but couldn't afford (and at the time I was on a high salary by any reasonable measure) then appealed state school place unsuccessfully and ended up at our 3rd choice. Their GCSEs might have been better but have been perfectly adequate to go onto 6th form college choices and subsequently to Uni for the eldest. And personally I reckon are more rounded people as a result of the experience compared to primary peers that went on via catchment or paying to 'better' Guildford schools.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 7:44 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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IANAL but aren’t they compelled to defend the cases that come through their door?

Yes


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 8:17 pm
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zippykona
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Apart from them not liking foreigners does anyone know what else Deform stand for?

Right from UKIP forward, Farage and the various iterations of party he's led have been AGAINST things far more than for... anything.

It's a malicious protest party that attracts people that are upset with the status quo and want very simple answers to very complex issues.

As we have seen, that never ends well.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 10:25 pm
supernova, silvine, stumpyjon and 5 people reacted
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Farage is just Putin's useful idiot, creating division and rabble-rousing for roubles....he couldn't give a flying f#ck about the UK,

He doesn't get enough scrutiny for his Russian ties

Frankly a little disappointed/sickened  people are doing the " Hitler or Putin are good guys except for the mass murder" schtick - you're perilously close to condoning the horror


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 10:41 pm
supernova, silvine, ThePinkster and 7 people reacted
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Nigel Farage has a history of being singularly unimpressed by his own party's policies.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/24/nigel-farage-wrote-foreward-ukip-drivel-manifesto

"I didn't read it. It was drivel, 486 pages of drivel"

Nigel Farage doesn't need policies, that's for the deary establishment parties. All you need to know about Nigel Farage is that he doesn't like foreigners (apart for Germans - he married one of those) and he knows how to hold a pint of beer like a proper geezer.

What's not to like?


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 10:46 pm
supernova, dudeofdoom, Poopscoop and 3 people reacted
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Frankly a little disappointed/sickened people are doing the ” Hitler or Putin are good guys except for the mass murder” schtick

I mentioned Putin yesterday I think?

He's a **** so hope it wasnt me that's posted something inflammatory without realising.

I think I mentioned that he's almost definitely keeping in our elections and everyone elses I think?


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 10:46 pm
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@poopscoop you're one of the good guys from what I've been reading (over the last months and years) so not you

No need to name names. The lessons we should be learning is how to recognise the kind of psychological manipulation these shape-shifters use to skew opinion and cause division and pretend we are not better off in this together


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 11:03 pm
Poopscoop, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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Theotherjonv - yes compelled to, but it’s already been used as an attack line both by the press and Sunak.

Starmer isn’t in a fair fight, so is understandably very wary of giving the attack dogs any meat.


 
Posted : 14/06/2024 11:31 pm
supernova, Poopscoop, MoreCashThanDash and 5 people reacted
 igm
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Nigel Farage is that he doesn’t like foreigners (apart for Germans – he married one of those

Didn’t they separate?


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 12:04 am
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@ susepic

No problem, just thought I might have lit a tinder box without knowing which wouldn't have been my intention. Lol


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 12:15 am
susepic and susepic reacted
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Reform in second place in the polls. So we still want PR?

If we had PR in previous elections, and all those UKIP etc. voters had some representation, we might have had a better chance at sorting out the issues they care about, through reasonable compromise agreed between politicians.

Instead they got ignored, but that doesn't make people or issues go away. It snowballed, and here we are now.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 12:40 am
susepic, supernova, dissonance and 15 people reacted
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Nigel Farage is that he doesn’t like foreigners (apart for Germans – he married one of those
Didn’t they separate?

Yes and it was rumoured that he had a fling with a French MEP


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 12:46 am
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Didn’t they separate?

Yes he lives with his mistress I believe. But I think we safely assume that Farage is not prejudice against Germans if he married one.

And another German Nigel Farage is apparently quite impressed with is Adolf Hitler. He found him "hypnotic".

However as a general rule he doesn't like foreigners very much. Nor those seeking asylum. Despite the fact that his ancestors came to the UK as asylum seekers.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 12:52 am
Poopscoop, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
 igm
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He doesn’t like the British much either given his “contract” proposal and what that would do to folk living in the UK.

Allegedly the Nigerians like him - or their botnets do.

Aftee the MayBot the NigeBot?


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:07 am
supernova, Poopscoop, supernova and 1 people reacted
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Despite the fact that his ancestors came to the UK as asylum seekers.

It hadn’t occurred to me that Farage is a Huguenot name… but as soon as I read what you posted, it jumped out at me. Thanks.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:10 am
Poopscoop and Poopscoop reacted
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A Reform takeover would allow the Tories to market themselves as a "new party" 5 years from now. A handy way to absolve themselves of the last 14 years.

Screenshot_20240615-000853


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:12 am
supernova, kelvin, supernova and 1 people reacted
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So if a country went full right wing, would PR prevent or advance a left wing party to be able to become a ‘majority’?

The question is how would did they achieve that? If by everyone voting for them then by definition nope but if it was some dodgy deal with someone who is conservative but not full out fascist, for convenience and to say hi to Godwins law, lets call them Hindenburg then also nope.

If it was the current leader went full right wing after getting elected as somewhat in the middle but still respected democracy and so their opponents didnt have an unfortunate liking for open windows on the 20th floor then possibly yes.

As with the Russia example PR only works when the people currently in charge do more than pretend to play by the rules.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:16 am
Poopscoop and Poopscoop reacted
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I think this was mentioned in the thread but not linked to I believe?

Polling expert Sir John Curtice on Reform and Lib Dem gains

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11jpqgzp4o


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:24 am
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Frankly a little disappointed/sickened  people are doing the ” Hitler or Putin are good guys except for the mass murder” schtick – you’re perilously close to condoning the horror

You need to read what I actually said.  I clearly didn't say that I think Putin and Hitler are/were "good guys", I said if you look at what they achieved they were pretty successful (up to a point).

How they did it and what they did is nothing but evil but they did it.  For anyone to say they admire Putin based on that means they are in a pretty bad place themselves, i.e. Farage.  I wasn't defending him I was pointing out that his own defence of what he said just makes it worse.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 6:37 am
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I think this was mentioned in the thread but not linked to I believe?

Yes that's me. The link is there along with another one (both BBC) showing slightly different figures.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 8:30 am
Poopscoop and Poopscoop reacted
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Yes that’s me. The link is there along with another one (both BBC) showing slightly different figures.

Ah sorry, I obviously wasn't playing attention!👍


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 8:31 am
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Is it physically possible for the tories to boot Sunak out, get Lord FarFar in and amalgamate the 2 parties before the vote?


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 8:35 am
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zippykonaFull Member
Is it physically possible for the tories to boot Sunak out, get Lord FarFar in and amalgamate the 2 parties before the vote?

No the candidates have been selected and the ballots printed, they can't change those

In fact people have already started postal voting


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 9:01 am
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Surely not enough time for the cons to do it according to their constitution, and I imagine party affiliations on ballot sheets are fixed now also.

I guess there could be some kind of mutual love-in pact where one candidate in a seat says "please vote for the other guy". But enforcing that on the ground might be tricky.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 9:21 am
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I’m inclined to agree with the theory that although Farage makes a whole heap of noise and is given huge amounts of undeserving attention by the media, his ‘party’ won’t win any seats under FPTP and I’d be quite surprised if he won in Clacton. The Lib Dem’s have suffered from this problem for years, have got quite good at targeting appropriate seats but still struggle to win more than a handful.
Come July 5th all the hysteria over the revolting Reform will seem foolish. During an election we tend to forget that the media love drama more than boring reality.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 9:52 am
kimbers, nickc, kimbers and 1 people reacted
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I’d be quite surprised if he won in Clacton

Ukip twice in the last 3 elections before Carswell switched to the independent?


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 10:58 am
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The guy with the long curly hair 😂.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:03 am
bikesandboots, ChrisL, ChrisL and 1 people reacted
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The Guardian are reporting this morning that prominent Tory MPs have been noticeable by their  absence as they’re all too busy getting their teams in place for the upcoming leadership election instead.

The irony of that being that quite a few of them will likely lose their seats before they get chance to put their plans into operation.

In other irony-meter-busting news ‘Lord’ Dave has accused Nigel Farage of Trying to destroy the Tory party’. Maybe you should look a bit closer to home for the person responsible for that one Dave? Maybe to the bloke who arrogantly assumed that a referendum on EU membership would be an easily-won formality?

Tory leadership hopefuls ‘already lobbying’ to replace Sunak


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:11 am
kimbers, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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Watching that video above, they do have some valid points. Immigration, mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist. The sexual education of children too, people dont like being told there are 50 genders, and dont like it even more that their children are being taught that (are they? I dont know). Farage is standing up for those people , when the mainstream politicians just ignore their concerns. Thats why the fringe parties are getting votes, the main ones dont want to say anything that may cause some debate. That they have no other policies is lost to many/most people, all they hear is soundbites that they care about the people, it clearly isnt enough, but the main parties are their own worst enemies in being so tightly controlled, with little chance to express anything other than basic non controversial views.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:13 am
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people dont like being told there are 50 genders, and dont like it even more that their children are being taught that (are they? I dont know). Farage is standing up for those people

No they're not being taught that, but farage standing up for people being outraged about something that isn't real is exactly what he does

Especially ironic when brexit helped increase immigratiin, 96% of which is legal, we're issuing endless visas because FOM has stopped the flow of skilled & unskilled workers


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:21 am
hightensionline, seriousrikk, supernova and 27 people reacted
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Farage is standing up for those people

No he isn't. He's using them to elevate his own agenda. He's a narcissist, pure and simple.

The best thing to do with a narcissist is to ignore them. Giving Farage the oxygen of publicity was a huge error in the 2010s.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:21 am
hightensionline, supernova, woodster and 29 people reacted
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I recently spent an evening arguing with my brexit-supporting, anti-vax, anti-woke, anti-immigrant family. It got rather heated and unpleasant, but I came away realising that while I may think I'm right, I didn't have any arguments that could actually convince them. Ultimately they think I live in a bubble and don't understand the real world. They probably have a point.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:29 am
supernova, AD, kelvin and 3 people reacted
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The sexual education of children too, people dont like being told there are 50 genders

You know this is all just complete bollocks made up by the Daily Mail, right? When asked to provide actual examples of this they go quiet and stare at their shoes

Its like the Witch scene in the Holy Grail

”she turned me into a newt!”

”… I got better….”

What they’re doing is manufacturing totally fanciful and bogus ‘problems’ that only they can offer ‘common sense’ solutions to.

They've been doing it since 2016 when they realised they could pin all their own failings on the EU and 52% of the population were gullible enough to believe them.

… and how’s their ‘solution’ to that particular problem presently working out? Somewhat unsurprisingly, none of them want to talk about that any more


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:30 am
hightensionline, supernova, woodster and 15 people reacted
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Bit depressing that the right wingers can make noise & get attention but when the Labour mos left to set up the Independent group it all fizzled out.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:47 am
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Immigration, mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist. 

An adult conversation can be had about immigration - I'm sure there are exceptions but it's when people start conflating all migration with illegal immigration, blame migrants for shortfalls in public services, accuse refugees of coming here to claim benefits, the fresh suggestion that foreign students are bringing their mums as dependants (huh?), that refugees are a danger, etc etc etc, that's when you're liable to be branded racist. As I say, I'm sure there are exceptions, but if people dislike being branded rascist then not being rascist is a very good defence.

As a starting point in the debate about migration, it shouldn't be forgotten it's skyrocketed since the Brexit Farage insisted on in order to control it. People who think he has the answers don't realise or forget how ruthlessly he lies to them, and the media plays a big part in allowing him to lie so unchallenged (I'm looking at you, Question Time).


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:49 am
hightensionline, supernova, johnny and 7 people reacted
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Saw my first Tory election poster today - admitedly in the garden of our (annoyingly good, helpful and supportive) local Tory councilor.

Did get a flyer through for the LibDem candidate, and sod tactical voting, he's getting my vote! There is no doubt that middle aged men with a LibDem orange mohican are under represented in parliament and this needs to change


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 11:53 am
kimbers and kimbers reacted
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his ‘party’ won’t win any seats under FPTP and I’d be quite surprised if he won in Clacton.

Those were my exact same thoughts when Farage called the press conference to announce that he was standing.

However since then it has become obvious that you need to be in denial to carry on thinking that.

It seems certain now that he will win Clacton and Reform UK might pick up a couple more seats.

If you look at the opinion polls they are very clearly all over the place and it can be very hard to make any sense of them.

But whilst it is impossible to have any sort of reasonable idea of the likely makeup of the next parliament the polls can leave us absolutely certain of three things.

Firstly that the Tories will do extremely badly, no one doubts that includes the Tories themselves. Secondly that Reform UK will do extremely well. And thirdly that Keir Starmer will be the prime minister the following week.

I can't see how anyone can come to any different sort of conclusions. The reason it is so hard imo to predict the size of Labour's majority is because we are entering new territory, it is clear that British politics has changed and it is no longer as predictable as it once was. The Tory Party crisis is unprecedented in UK history, as far as I am aware.

(Personally I suspect that the LibDems might do better on July 4th than they are currently expected to do, and there might be a couple of surprises from independents and possibly the Greens on election night. But unlike the other points that isn't backed up by any sort of hard evidence)


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 12:45 pm
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mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist.

No you are only likely to be branded a racist if you are a racist.

Immigration is limited. The only political party which I am aware of that has a policy of the no immigration controls at all is the Socialist Workers Party, and they have never dictated UK immigration policies.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 12:53 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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dont like it even more that their children are being taught that (are they? I dont know).

😆 🤣 😂


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:05 pm
kelvin and kelvin reacted
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Just seen this:

https://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/24388615.greenwich-new-conservative-councillor-by-election/

Although it is impossible to extrapolate the likely level of support for political parties on a national level from council by-elections I find the results of Thursday's Greenwich by-election really quite interesting.

If Reform UK have become the natural home for so many Tory voters why did the Tory candidate receive more than five times more votes than the Reform UK candidate?

I remain convinced that Reform UK will do very well on July 4 and the Tories very badly but it's impossible to predict beyond that imo.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:12 pm
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I can’t see how anyone can come to any different sort of conclusions. The reason it is so hard imo to predict the size of Labour’s majority is because we are entering new territory

Indeed Ernesto. Nobody actually knows how this will play out but believe me nobody in the Labour party is taking anything for granted.

I'm just back from delivering more Labour election material (in the pissing rain, obviously) and I'll be getting more stuff dropped off this afternoon to deliver through the week.

This is an ultra-marginal constituency that changes hands regularly. The Tory majority is the smallest in the country at 100 votes, yet I've had a constant stream of Tory election bumph through the door. More arrived yesterday even though the latest local polls are predicting a labour majority of 3,500+. I don't doubt that Reform will take a load of votes off the Tories, but be in no doubt, the Tories are fiercly contesting this seat. Rishi has been here twice since the election was anounced.

It seems mental to me that they're pouring so many resources into this constituency as they are surely absolutely certain to lose it, aren't they? Aren't they? At the end of the day until the votes are counted you just never know, so nobody is presuming anything. We're doing everything to make sure people get out there and actually vote and don't just assume that this is in the bag. It isn't. Yet.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 1:35 pm
supernova, pondo, wooobob and 7 people reacted
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Good effort binners


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 2:18 pm
ThePinkster, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist

Not so,

Blaming everything that ails the country on brown people, like Farage did on Sky a couple of Sundays ago, you probably are a little bit racist.

Can't get a GP appointment? Foreigners.

Traffic jam? Immigrants.

If that resonates then maybe - a teeny tiny bit?


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 2:34 pm
supernova, pondo, salad_dodger and 5 people reacted
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I have a bit of an issue with Politics Joe putting people like that lad with long curly hair in their videos.  Clearly some form of disability there.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 2:35 pm
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“ I have a bit of an issue with Politics Joe putting people like that lad with long curly hair in their videos. Clearly some form of disability there.”

Why, can’t disabled people have a view on things? I’ve said it before, people have different views to the majority on here, no one listens to them, possibly as their views are too strong, or maybe they are saying what they actually think, and people dont like it? Their views are as valid as anyone elses.
Remember the woman in Lancs, iirc, with Gordon Brown? She asked about immigration, and was called a bigot by the Prime Minister. She was expressing her views which werent at all racist, but was called a bigot, when all she wanted was to be heard, and give her views.
Labour or the Tories are deemed to be not listening, or doing anything, no wonder Reform are doing well.
These are not my views, but certainly the views of others, who should not be dismissed as extremists, remember Brexit where the remain crowd dismissed anyone who wanted to leave as idiots, and didnt even bother to properly campaign on the benefits of staying in? It’s happening again now, the mainstream parties are dismissing the views of many people, not promoting why they are wrong, the Tories are utterly useless,as expected, but Labour should be doing more to counteract the many things that D.Mail/Express claim, and lead to working class people voting for Reform and other extreme Parties.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 2:58 pm
davros, wooobob, Skippy and 5 people reacted
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and lead to working class people voting for Reform and other extreme Parties.

Be interested to see the data that says Reform's support is coming from good honest salt of the earth working class people.

Recently voting has been split fairly evenly across all socio-economic classes.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 3:11 pm
pondo, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
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Labour or the Tories are deemed to be not listening, or doing anything, no wonder Reform are doing well.

We all know the Tories and their proxies in the press are blatant liars (to say the least) but the level of dishonesty about immigration is absolutely off the chart. They offered leaving the EU and ending freedom of movement up as a 'cure' for immigration levels. Since 2016 the levels of immigration has tripled. Why? Because our economy and ageing society cannot function without high levels of immigration. Its as simple as that. Their corporate paymasters demand a stream of skilled and inskilled labour, but they dare not be honest with the public and say it.

The fabled 'economic growth' has been virtually non-existant for 14 years now, but the tiny amount managed has been fuelled entirely by immigrants. Without it this country would be utterly ****ed, to be perfectly blunt.

And right now they're scapegoating desperate refugees for everything, demonising them and coming up with nonsense like Rwanda as their next 'cure'. Their numbers are tiny and absolutely insignificant compared to legal migration which has gone through the roof on their watch

The answer to this is to process their claims, but under the Tories the Home Office has become completely dysfunctional and simply cannot do this, so its back to scapegoating and demonising to cover for their own biblical levels of failure and ineptitude, instead of doing anything about it.

The whole thing is an absolute pack of lies, just like Brexit, but opportunist snake-oil salesmen like Farage are never ones to miss a trick when it comes to offering simple solutions to complex problems, to further their own agendas


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 3:18 pm
hightensionline, supernova, pondo and 9 people reacted
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Remember the woman in Lancs, iirc, with Gordon Brown? She asked about immigration, and was called a bigot by the Prime Minister. She was expressing her views which werent at all racist, but was called a bigot, when all she wanted was to be heard, and give her views.

She complained that people are coming here to claim benefits and vulnerable people here can't.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 3:30 pm
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It seems certain now that he will win Clacton and Reform UK might pick up a couple more seats.

Not necessarily because as you said:

If you look at the opinion polls they are very clearly all over the place and it can be very hard to make any sense of them.

But whilst it is impossible to have any sort of reasonable idea of the likely makeup of the next parliament the polls can leave us absolutely certain of three things.

Firstly that the Tories will do extremely badly, no one doubts that includes the Tories themselves.

That's clear.

Secondly that Reform UK will do extremely well.

That's not so clear. I'm seeing polls suggesting 0-7 seats.

And thirdly that Keir Starmer will be the prime minister the following week.

Clearly.

Personally I suspect that the LibDems might do better on July 4th than they are currently expected to do

I think that's a distinct possibility. The higher of the forecasts are due to Reform splitting the right wing vote so ideally I want to see Reform doing well enough to gift the LibDems more seats but not well enough to win any themselves.

Fingers crossed.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 3:51 pm
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“ I have a bit of an issue with Politics Joe putting people like that lad with long curly hair in their videos.  Clearly some form of disability there. “

hadn’t even thought of that, I thought he was taking the piss with his closing comment.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 4:40 pm
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Secondly that Reform UK will do extremely well.

That’s not so clear. I’m seeing polls suggesting 0-7 seats.

I did consider whether to emphasis that I was talking in relative terms but I decided that it should be obvious.

If Reform UK get 3 to 4 seats on July 4 it will be considered that they will have done extremely well.

And imo they will indeed have done. It will be a seriously negative development imo as it will undoubtedly provide them with something upon which to build.

Reform UK are a dangerous distraction for a variety of reasons including the fact that they have nothing useful to offer.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 5:16 pm
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the fresh suggestion that foreign students are bringing their mums as dependants (huh?)

That is actually true. There are significant Middle eastern state sponsored student programmes in the UK. Over the years I've been involved with those populations via my job and many of them do bring parents over with them


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 5:28 pm
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I think that’s a distinct possibility. The higher of the forecasts are due to Reform splitting the right wing vote so ideally I want to see Reform doing well enough to gift the LibDems more seats but not well enough to win any themselves.

I think on day this will be closer than most predict.  Reform+ Conservative total is ahead of or within 1pc of Labour.  Question is will Tory voters actually back Farage on the day it counts knowing it will split the vote in a swing constituency.  Unlikely given electoral history.

My hunch is that we'll wake up to a hung parliament / no overall majority on the morning.  This isn't based on anything credible I've been too the bookies about, but more that British politics recently has thrown up so many surprises and convoluted situations, and a hung parliament is about the only thing we've not had..


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 6:24 pm
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Reform+ Conservative total is ahead of or within 1pc of Labour.

It is important not to lose sight that Tory voters and Reform UK voters are not the same thing, so they can't be lumped together as if they are a single entity.

If Reform UK don't stand a candidate their supporters do not all go automatically to the Tories. I can't remember the figures but I think something like 30% would vote Labour. And quite a few would probably not vote at all.

There are a variety of reasons why some people will back Reform UK, it's not always simply a case of hating immigrants. Often they see backing Reform UK as a protest vote, or an anti-establishment vote, or that Reform UK listens to their concerns.

Obviously that's all a misconstrued conclusion based on feeling left abandoned by the Labour Party but it doesn't automatically make them Tories.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 6:38 pm
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There are a variety of reasons why some people will back Brexit, it’s not always simply a case of hating immigrants. Often they see backing Brexit as a protest vote, or an anti-establishment vote, or that UKIP listens to their concerns.

😉


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 6:43 pm
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There are significant Middle eastern state sponsored student programmes in the UK. Over the years I’ve been involved with those populations via my job and many of them do bring parents over with them

How does that work then while they are here? I can see when one of the issues is housing availability the student goes from renting a room in a student house to renting a house but what happens for eg: work vs benefits (not nec being paid benefits but what is access to healthcare and so on?)

When you say state sponsored, that says to me funded, but that may not be the case.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 7:34 pm
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When you say state sponsored, that says to me funded, but that may not be the case.

As an example, there's the Saudi MOFA student programme in the UK. It's a few years since it came across my desk but last time I saw it there were about 22,000 Saudis in the UK that consisted of students and their dependents which could be spouses or other family members and even in some cases, chaperones. The Qataris run a similar programme

https://www.mofa.gov.sa/en/eservices/Pages/svc90.aspx


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 7:53 pm
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The very latest opinion has Labour on a truly huge 46% with the Tories on their lowest rating for Savanta in 4 years.

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

And that particular poll doesn't suggest that growing support for Reform UK is causing a dent in support for Labour.

Which is a bit more reassuring than the recent YouGov poll.

I reckon that the credibility of some polling companies might be seriously undermined after July 4, whilst the credibility of others might be enhanced.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 8:15 pm
 rone
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What's this LBC general election announcement on Monday morning that they're hyping up?

Heard it this morning on the radio.

I'm surprised there's not more noise about it a it's clearly what's intended by announcing before the weekend.


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 8:15 pm
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What’s this LBC general election announcement on Monday morning that they’re hyping up?

just seen an oblique reference to this on bluesky but i cant find anything about it


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 8:18 pm
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What’s this LBC general election announcement on Monday morning that they’re hyping up?

Heard it this morning on the radio.

I’m surprised there’s not more noise about it a it’s clearly what’s intended by announcing before the weekend.

Dunno?, Ian Dale and Nick Ferrari announcing a wa*nker party?.....not listened to LBC since the Global lawyers imposed an NDA on Sangita


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 8:47 pm
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a hung parliament is about the only thing we’ve not had..

Well, not since 2010


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 9:20 pm
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What about the 2017 hung parliament?


 
Posted : 15/06/2024 9:26 pm
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