(PS: I still have the ‘fear’ of the overall result ?. Just can’t shake the nagging doubt…)
I too am wracked with nerves, Id just like to see one election result go the way Id like, its been soooo long
Worry is drop in Labour votes the polls were showing (probably DKs, finally deciding tory, Lib Dem tactical & I suspect Muslim vote dropping off ) also fear that theres a lot of shy reform voters out there and they may end up with more seats.
Cheadle here, should be an easy return to LibDem. Fingers crossed for Labour in Macclesfield down the road and perhaps even Tatton. That would be quite a coup.
Also keeping an eye on Bassetlaw where I grew up in the days of Joe Ashton. I'm hoping they see sense and turf out Brendan Clarke-Smith.
I don't think you need to worry kimbers, the polls are still showing Labour in the high 30s and a big majority.
(PS: I still have the ‘fear’ of the overall result ?. Just can’t shake the nagging doubt…)
Same here. A pile of spoiled ballots, a few too many votes for Binface and the similar joke candidates, a bit of voter apathy or sense of "well it's a done deal, I don't need to bother..." and things could be very different from what the polls suggested...
Sir John Curtice said that even if all the don't know Tories vote in favour last minute, it would only impact a few percentage points. I'm holding out hope still. Large majority fine, near extinction for Tories all the better.
Enjoyed voting earlier. Hoping Lib dem candidate gets in, had another leaflet through the door from them at about 6am headlined 'good morning' and imploring voters out. They've campaigned hard!
The last poll I saw had the "will not votes" at 11%. That implies an 89% turnout! I'll believe that when I see it.
Voted for a STW’ers wife. (Won’t name names in case he doesn’t want it out there).
Looking forward to an evening with Prof. Fry
(PS: I still have the ‘fear’ of the overall result ?. Just can’t shake the nagging doubt…)
The overall result is the one thing that is completely certain - Starmer will become prime minister.
The only thing that isn't certain is the detail. Although it might not be the predicted biggest majority of any government since 1832 it will result in the Tories losing power, the evidence is absolutely overwhelming.
No opinion poll has placed the Tories above 30% since the beginning of October last year. The Tories have never polled less than 30% in any general election for the last 200 years.
No doubt it will be closer than the polls were predicting until about a week ago but it will still be a very comfortable win for Labour.
I am not overly keen to make predictions but based on following the opinion polls and what has happened in the last few days I suspect that the final result will be somewhere in the region of 38% for Labour and 24% for the Tories.
Putting a figure on Reform UK is harder but probably in the region of 17%
The exit polls are extraordinarily accurate so we should pretty much know the overall result this evening at 10pm
**Hoping Lib dem candidate gets in, had another leaflet through the door from them at about 6am headlined ‘good morning’ and imploring voters out. They’ve campaigned hard!**
Yeah, at my polling station only the LibDems had a 'teller' outside asking for voting card numbers (which, I believe, is so they know who hasn't voted so they can go and 'remind' them). Some young 'Karen' went mental at her, saying how wrong it is. I stepped in and reminded her that it is perfectly legal and she was equally welcome to do similar for the party she supports, should she wish to. When I left, she was on the other side of the road shouting into a phone LOL!
Mr Truss's wife ?
My fear is not that Labour won't win, because it's as nailed on as it can be that will happen, but it's that Reform come second. I'd stick a tenner on that in a doom-bet, if I still had a bookies account.
My fear is not that Labour won’t win, because it’s as nailed on as it can be that will happen, but it’s that Reform come second.
I was saying the same to my wife last night – if they do, loads of Conservatives will defect and it will make them even stronger at the next election. Hopefully, many of the bigotted old bastards who would vote for them would be dead by then though.
I've just stuck a tenner on Reform getting a greater vote share than the Tories
Enjoyed voting earlier. Hoping Lib dem candidate gets in, had another leaflet through the door from them at about 6am headlined ‘good morning’ and imploring voters out. They’ve campaigned hard!
My Dad lives in one of those proper dead-cert-Tory constituencies (mostly thanks to the blue-rinse pensioners who've retired down there) and the tactical vote site said Lib Dem as that was by far the closest candidate last time. I've spoken to my Dad who assured me he knew his responsibilities and he also said the LDs had been campaigning hard in that area.
A pile of spoiled ballots, a few too many votes for Binface and the similar joke candidates, a bit of voter apathy or sense of “well it’s a done deal, I don’t need to bother…” and things could be very different from what the polls suggested…
At the risk of repeating myself,
Complacency that "we can't lose" is how we got brexit.
My fear is not that Labour won’t win, because it’s as nailed on as it can be that will happen, but it’s that Reform come second.
I think that's highly unlikely, but they will be close-run with the Tories for 2nd in some individual seats. Like this one. Seats actually won, I'd be surprised if I needed both hands to count.
Not voted yet as waiting for OH to come home so we can go together. A retired mate of mine voted earlier in the day and said he'd never seen our local polling station so busy. Rather worryingly that will be all the wealthy old retired farts who live here voting to keep Rishi in his seat. Even worse I spoke to my 91 year old mother and she told me she had voted for Rishi. Why? "Because I like him". I despair!
but it’s that Reform come second.
I agree this is highly unlikely. Lib dems look like doing well. SNP will lose seats but should still have 20 or so by my guess. Reform will do well to get half a dozen. No way will they get more than the lib dems and highly unlikely they get more than the tories. Faint possibility they overtake the SNP to come 4th.
but it’s that Reform come second.
Unless something catastrophic happens to the LibDems, and there is no evidence at all to suggest that, then there is not a chance that Reform UK will come second.
Although extremely unlikely imo I guess that there is a vague chance that RUK will get maybe 15 seats, but the LibDems won't get less than that.
Edit: There's also the fact that the Tories won't get less than that
My fear is not that Labour won’t win, because it’s as nailed on as it can be that will happen, but it’s that Reform come second.
Thing is though it's a real job, and not an especially easy one. How many reformers do you think would expect to get in? Even less will be quite so enthusiastic when they realise the job entails going to and from London constantly to sit in the backbenches and be heard once in a blue moon if at all, or sit on endless boring committees.
I'm looking forward to Farage getting a bollocking from the speaker for speaking out of turn shortly before the recall petition to remove him when his constituency realise he's a useless MP.
Actually, small correction, I've put a fiver on Reform getting a greater vote share (at 7/2), and a fiver on them coming second in terms of seats (at 20/1).
Interestingly/scarily, the latter odds dropped from 33/1 in the ten minutes between me first looking, and putting the bet on.
How long can you see Farage doing constituency surgeries for?
When I went to vote the woman spent about 30 seconds comparing the photo on my ID to me in front of her. Was ready to kick off if I was denied the right to vote, especially as the photo is only a year old. Eventually she satisfied herself that I was who I claimed to be.
Anyway speaking to wife and the eldest they had the same. Either she'd forgotten her glasses, or thinks it's funny. Anyway job done, let's see what the exit polls say at 10pm.
My one just had a quick glance at it.
Might have been because I confirmed I had id by saying "yes I have my voter supression card"
"I’ve just stuck a tenner on Reform getting a greater vote share than the Tories"
It's what they would have wanted.
Well, not wanted exactly. It is what they would have done then tried to deny doing.
How long can you see Farage doing constituency surgeries for?
I reckon his attendance record will be right up there with his attendance at EU Fisheries Commission.
What was it, one meeting in 42 or something that he actually attended?
Still managed to rinse his expenses from the whole thing of course.
Waiting for my daughter to get home from work so we can vote together in her first GE.
Going to be Lib Dem for me as the Labour candidate is a bit of a bell and unfortunately none of it will make any difference as we are one of the very few seats guaranteed to stay tosspot Tory. It’s insane as the Lib Dem candidate is head and shoulders above the muppet Tory and would be amazing as a constiuent MP
Predictably my octogenarian parents have both voted conservative ‘to help balance the benches because we need an effective opposition’
I honestly think the voting age should be 16 to 67
@fazzini If he votes Tory or Reform you will require a large whiskey and a revolver. Your parenting will have been demonstarted to be Sunak bad!
It is unlikely that he will vote for them as your influence should guide him in the paths of righteousness.
How can anyone’s elderly parents possibly think that more Tory is the correct choice., do you not get the opportunity to talk to them or refuse all access to kids/medication/nursing home if they vote for ****s
"all the people who’ve told me how they will vote have said they are voting reform".
Jesus. Where do you live/work?
"Jesus. Where do you live/work?"
Nazareth?
To be fair I'm expecting a string reform vote here. It's the sort of place where people are still annoyed that Brexit hasn't some how magically made it good, and so are going to double down.
Also reform have been out campaigning hard. They've been on the high street, on the roundabouts like an ironic JSO protest, everywhere I look this last couple of weeks there's something reformy. I've not seen hide nor hair of any other parties. Fair play to them for putting the hard yards in.
I honestly think the voting age should be 16 to 67
I get fed up of all this crap.... I'm 77 and my wife not much younger and we certainly never voted Tory. Stop making these generalisations.
@somafunk They were going to vote for Brexit till my Dutch wife warned them she’d never let them see their dual national grandchildren again if they did. They abstained rather than vote against.
Strange thing is they are not stupid. My mum was a deputy head of a highly rated special needs school (as they were called then) and my dad designed complicated bits for telescopes like William Herschel and Hubble!
But stupid comes in many forms.
Can't you send them to a friendly clinic in Switzerland? No need to pay for return airfares.
My friend has today disowned his wife’s best mate on the basis she’s voted Reform instead of her usual Tory vote. When asked why, she said “Immigration needs sorting out properly, and that can’t be done with a Brown person in charge” ??
Nothing like politics to get people to reveal themselves.
"I honestly think the voting age should be 16 to 67"
I do think voting should carry some sort of age-weighting - including if you have kids of below voting age.
Those with more skin in the game should carry more priority.
And referenda should be outlawed. After joining the EU.
?
Strange thing is they are not stupid. My mum was a deputy head of a highly rated special needs school (as they were called then) and my dad designed complicated bits for telescopes like William Herschel and Hubble!
Blimey , you'd think that if anyone could've seen the writing on the wall, it would be your dad
Wonderful interaction with a school run mum earlier. She said she was thinking of voting Reform.
Didn't know what the candidates name was or what he stood for. Or too much about Reform's "policies". But hey, ho. That Garage chap seems nice. ?
From a quick glance, the candidate is white, middle class, male, business owner and doesn't like 20mph limits. Not sure what else, but I'm willing to bet his offering is a string of worthless epithets.
Cons are bound to win in our constituency but managed to persuade my wife & son to vote libdem as most likely to be 2nd - hopefully any head wind gained this time will come to fruition next time ?
@kormoran this is what I truly don’t understand - he is fully onboard with the climate disaster, very well read on it - probably understands more than most despite being 86 still has most of his marbles. His take is basically we’re ****ed anyway so what are Labour going do. Personally I think thats defeatist and selfish.
Anyway daughter just got home. I told her to vote with her heart not her head in her first election so she is voting Green. Off we go to do our bit for democracy such as it is these days….
