I really hope I’m wrong.
I don't think your fears are unfounded at all. But I also don't see how more Tory MPs rather than fewer helps us avoid that risk.
PSA the New Eeuropean has a Tory MP portillo moment bingo poster this week
Goodness me I hope the polls are underestimating the Tory wipeout
Goodness me I hope the polls are underestimating the Tory wipeout
In related news, the odds are shifting slightly after a several days of very little movement.
0-49 - shortening
50-99 - shortening
100-149 - lengthening
150+ Who cares.
I don't think Labour will end up chasing Reform voters.
They've not engaged with them on things they'll lose with them like immigration they're being much more measured and grown up about it
I don’t think Labour will end up chasing Reform voters.
They’ve not engaged with them on things they’ll lose with them like immigration they’re being much more measured and grown up about it
Pretty sure people said the same thing about Macron and Le Pen.
He still got dragged towards FN policies and voters still went with FN in the end. I really hope Labour have learned from this but the campaign is not really showing me that they have.
Anyone you know doesn't have PhotoID has until 5PM today to apply for a Voter Authority Certificate - Pass it on....
https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-photo-id-voter-authority-certificate
Labour and Brexit - more discussion:
There are two ways of looking at this: A labour government any labour government is better than the tories or Starmers labour is so unambitious and has hamstrung its self over brexit and continuing austerity that Labour will be unable to actually improve things much. The ruling out of the end of the two child benefit cap is a real example here. Categorically ruled out by Starmer but in Scotland it is no more.
Brexit of course is the real issue and why I do not want to vote for Labour - a fundamentally dishonest position ( " no economic case to rejoin|") and one that means labour will preside over continuing decline - and also labours position goes strongly against public opinion
Again, UKIP voters never compromised. They never won a single seat and yet the government is now UKIP in all but name.
I know where you're coming from and to an extent I agree. But UKIP had the luxury of time as well, they could play a long game and chip away while still being relatively safe you would still have tories returned - even to the point of not contesting in some areas. Maybe when it was clear that the country was going to return further tory goverments in 2015, 2019 etc. then was the time to really put the pressure on to changing the discussion on the left, although the Corbyn experiment sort of showed the country wasn't ready for it (although, would Corbyn's policies in a nicer outfit have been more palatable)
Will that happen this time. Hoping the labour party win, and then that they do well enough to get second terms and even a third, then that's the time for the progressive LW policies to put pressure on. But demanding them right here and now while trying to win against the tories this time - that's like being on the phone to the fire suppression engineer planning a system for your rebuilt house when really you should be on the phone to the fire brigade because your existing one's on fire and you're still in the upstairs bedroom.
We seem to have forgotten about inequality, housing, jobs, climate and infrastructure.
Well, you might have but both the Labour and Lib manifestos haven't and since both plan to actually be in power (either nationally or regionally), I'd be willing to give them so credit for it.
Again, you think you are doing something about inequality, housing, jobs and infrastructure but how exactly given that presumably your goal is to get a Labour party to replace the Tory party who are about as ambitious as the tories are just not as morally void. Kool aid anybody.
As someone who took part in the focus groups for some of these issues on behalf of the LD and Lab, there may be more people "doing something" than you think. Just because you can't be bothered to get involved doesn't mean everyone is like you.
The Conservatives have been almost incapable of governing for the last 5 years, the pandemic, their response to it, their constant infighting and public failings have meant that they've been almost continually firefighting for years. Nothing has been done. That this period will be done with alone will be a boon to this country.
What's wrong with Labour being ambitious?
BruceWee
Pretty sure people said the same thing about Macron and Le Pen.
It's a bloody risky strategy but Macron has offered the far right a poisoned chalice, "ok, if the people decide you can do a better job, prove it".
Craving power and using divisive politics is one thing, being potentially given the power to enact those batshit policies is another.
Worst case the French populous give them enough rope to hang themselves and suffer a few years of pain but at least the lie is exposed.
The parallels with Farage/Reform are hard to ignore.
Well, you might have but both the Labour and Lib manifestos haven’t
Really? Hopeful words mean nothing. No raising taxes means no significant extra spending, Starmer has already ruled out ending the 2 child benefit cap, no rejo9in the EU means low growth - so where is the spending needed coming from?
I do appreciate what you have said in this thread, you want “better” as do we all.
Can you honestly say you’d prefer to wake up to a Tory victory on the 5th July? It’s a yes or no situation.
No, I definitely don't want to wake up to a Tory victory (I have hated the tories since I was 11 years old when Thatcher got in) but that doesn't mean I think Labour will be massively different. I want a lot better than that which is why I am saying so. It is short sighted to think they are the solution, all they will provide is a slightly nicer political environment for 5 years, look at US to see what can likely happen after 5 years
The only decision for me is who will get closest to the Tory as all the vote tories out type sites don't draw any conclusions between Labour and Lib Dem so a toss up and there's there thing, if I was do "do something" as others feel they are doing I could just as easily sway votes in the wrong way between Labour and Lib Dems.
So I could vote Green as there are closest to what I believe in and get them up to 7%...
Reform voters are not going to compromise either and Labour will spend 5 years chasing their votes
If labour gets a good majority on the back their current "policies" why would they chase more votes by going further right. They just have to deliver on big policies then hopefully show some humanity.
It’s a bloody risky strategy but Macron has offered the far right a poisoned chalice, “ok, if the people decide you can do a better job, prove it”.
I agree.
The problem in the UK is FPTP. A minority of the population can cause a massive majority. I don't trust 30% of people not to vote these scum bags in.
In addition, the UK doesn't have the checks on power most other countries have. As I said, it has always relied on the 'good chap' principle.
France can gamble with giving the FN power (or the option form a government, not that they would want it https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/19/frances-far-right-leader-says-he-will-not-be-pm-without-absolute-majority) and be reasonably confident once their incompetence and corruption has been exposed the state will still be more or less intact.
The UK has no such safety net.
If labour gets a good majority on the back their current “policies” why would they chase more votes by going further right. They just have to deliver on big policies then hopefully show some humanity.
Because that's just the way it works, especially with FPTP. Once you've voted for a party they couldn't care less what you think. If you don't vote for them they become very interested in what you think.
In addition to the usual pattern where Tories chase Reform voters, Labour chase Tory voters, we all get dragged right, etc, Labour can also lose votes directly to Reform at a higher rate than many people seem to be willing to accept.
If the 'floating votes' are seen to be going to Reform, all parties are going to go chasing after them. And chasing those voters is only going to make Reform a more valid choice. We've seen this right across the EU many times.
Voted this morning, Libdems..who have no chance really. Labour were the only ones who could have toppled the Tories here.
But Brexit, Gaza mean I will not vote Labour.... Just can't do it. Starmer made the decision to pander to the **** vote, so he lost mine.
Basically wot TJ said ..
Brexit of course is the real issue and why I do not want to vote for Labour – a fundamentally dishonest position ( ” no economic case to rejoin|”)
kerley
No, I definitely don’t want to wake up to a Tory victory
Absolutely, because the only thing we know with complete certainty is that things will not improve under a Tory government.
I want a lot better than that which is why I am saying so.
I want better too, we all do on here. 👍
It is short sighted to think they are the solution,
I have to disagree here though. No, rather I look at it differently, we all want change as change is the only way "better" can be achieved. Will change guarantee better, of course not but it's the only environment where there is at least a chance of improvement. Whether we like it or not, the only change on offer is a change of government. That's the cold, hard truth and I see no viable alternative. In the future, who knows?
look at US to see what can likely happen after 5 years
Totally agree, there are no guarantees here, the only certainty is that we know what another 5 years of Tory will do.
The only decision for me is who will get closest to the Tory as all the vote tories out type sites don’t draw any conclusions between Labour and Lib Dem
No other way to put it, that's a shit situation to be in. If that situation doesn't change I totally agree that voting with your heart is a valid scenario.👍
@thegeneralist - Peace in the middle east, undo Brexit... I'm sure another Conservative MP will help meet those aims.
Kelvin - none of the English parties are aiming at those things apart from maybe Greens?
In related news, the odds are shifting slightly after a several days of very little movement.
0-49 – shortening
50-99 – shortening
100-149 – lengthening
150+ Who cares.
I wouldn't read too much into it, unless there's good data to back it up, most bookies are doing what the name implies and keeping a ledger. The idea being to offer odds on both results that bring in enough bets to cover the alternative. So lengthening or shortening odds just tells you that their books aren't balanced and not enough people have put a bet on 100+ to cover the alternatives. It's mostly to do with the wisdom of crowds, but in most cases the crowds are being influenced by sentiment, it's why you should never bet on a home team, the bookies will be offering rubbish (i.e. low) odds of them winning, even if they stand no chance, because they don't want to end up with an unbalanced book that costs them if they do pull of an unlikely win.
Oh, by the way, apologies to those voting for third or fourth placed parties when choosing not to choose their MP... I shouldn't throw around blame and accusation so harshly... I've voted the same way many many times before... most of my life in fact... but I just find it interesting/worrying that after the last 15 years so many people are still doing it at this crucial election.
Just had my first labour leaflet through the door, they are lying. The latest poll from electoral calculus shows the SNP winning in this area on 42%, Labour on 37%, tories on 21%.
Perhaps labour were winning before the election was called, but to show a poll carried out on the 10 May 2024 whilst handing out leaflets (printed after the election was called) stating that according to latest polling that the Labour Party are winning perfectly sums up the Labour Party to me, slimy lying shapeshifting ****s.
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none of the English parties are aiming at those things apart from maybe Greens
I don't think the Greens are for undoing Brexit (happy to be corrected).
Plaid Cymru are tho 😁
Ta - I do not know Plaid policies. I assume similar to the SNP
Voted this morning, Libdems..who have no chance really. Labour were the only ones who could have toppled the Tories here.
But Brexit, Gaza mean I will not vote Labour…. Just can’t do it. Starmer made the decision to pander to the **** vote, so he lost mine.
While I understand the principles at stake here, where I come unstuck is that in my head surely the pragmatic thing to do is to cast a vote with the most chance of unseating the Tories?
I find this interesting because there is a chance that sticking with principles in the short term may lead to worse longer term outcomes. If I'm not mistaken an example of this happening is Sarah Olney (Lib Dem, Richmond Park) being beaten by Zac Goldsmith by the narrowest of margins in the 2017 snap election, where if the relative handful of Labour voters had gone Lib Dem she'd have won again.
leaflets stating that according to latest polling
But the leaflet clearly states when the poll was done, and that may well have been when the print was ordered. What do you want them to do....bin a load of leaflets cos a later poll has shown a change?
Voted this morning, Libdems..who have no chance really. Labour were the only ones who could have toppled the Tories here.
But Brexit, Gaza mean I will not vote Labour…. Just can’t do it. Starmer made the decision to pander to the **** vote, so he lost mine.
Well, that's depressing to hear, thanks.
Ta – I do not know Plaid policies. I assume similar to the SNP
Yeah but bizarrely no mention of independence in the manifesto launch, apparently (again, happy to be corrected)
I'm with @thegeneralist on this. You're supposed to be voting for something, not the slightly less worse option. We know the tories are buggered at this election. If ever there was an election to vote with your actual convictions, then this is it.
tjagain
Full Member
Kelvin – none of the English parties are aiming at those things apart from maybe Greens?
From what I know, yep, probably the Greens.
This is the Labour dilemma on Brexit, Gaza and in all honesty, a fair few things I also think are really important (recent YouGov poll):
That poll, in theory, it's representative of the UK population, the people Labour need to vote for them.
Shit as it is, there are many issues that are not a top priority for most people. Again, it's shit and I dont like it whatsoever but Brexit, Gaza and other policy matters I personally think are important are WAY down most people's list of priorities.
Brexit is very interesting too. There are many polls that say the majority of people do not think Brexit was a good idea. However, those very people, for the moment anyway, simply don't want another devisive shit storm of a referendum and the chaos that it's likely to cause in politics again. Also see how high up immigration is. Not the highest priority no, but it's there and it's inextricably linked to Brexit in peoples minds.
Again, whether we like it or not, people want a working NHS**, dentistry**, better economy**, that's what will decide their votes.
I *hate* Brexit but the population in general are not ready to open Pandora's box again. Yet.
**Now... getting rid of Brexit would help resolve those peoples priorities, I totally get that... but a sizable percentage of the population evidently don't. Based on that, Labour going into the GE on a promise of reversing Brexit would have been political suicide.
I *hate* Brexit but the population in general are not ready to open Pandora's box again. Yet.
The Greens etc can promise to get us back in the EU asap because they have the luxury of not having to enact the policy. That's a luxury Labour dont have.
Anyway, that's where I'm at for what it's worth which is very little.
the coffin lid may be down but I want it glued, nailed and screwed shut, burnt, and then the remains buried deep underground.
Then I'll be happy this government is dead.
If they had pinned the blame for Brexit on the tories and pointed out the damage caused by brexit and that rejoin would be best - you know leading not weathervane politicians then that may have changed. Brexit is the single key on which the rest depends. Without reversing brexit they will not be able to achieve anything much. Politicians can and do change public opinion. It requires leadership tho and risk taking. Insted they now share the b lame for brexit with tyhe toriesand have ignored their most poitent weapon.
Its dishonest and rank cowardice to continue to lie about and enthusiastically support brexit and it means they will be completely hamstrung in government
misteralz
Free Member
I’m with @thegeneralist on this. You’re supposed to be voting for something, not the slightly less worse option. We know the tories are buggered at this election. If ever there was an election to vote with your actual convictions, then this is it.
The Tories are absolutely praying that you and others do exactly that. In fact it's the exact message they are putting out, the "super majority danger", a "single party socialist state", "blank cheque"...
Sure, they'd prefer you to vite Tory but not voting at all, or voting for a minor party are absolutely their second best outcomes.
The Twitter menswear bloke has finally come for Sunak. He's not wrong though - he needs to sack his tailor, if he even has one. Even Jimmy Dimly is better dressed than him.
https://twitter.com/dieworkwear/status/1805905107512639725
I really don't care that Labour's policies aren't that radically different from the Tories, I just want them removed in the hope that the UK regains some semblance of political stability without the infighting, rampant cronyism, u-turns and lies that the Tories are currently subjecting us to.
Is it really too much to expect a basic level of professionalism that should be a prerequisite of the government?
Kelvin – none of the English parties are aiming at those things apart from maybe Greens?
Perhaps because they realise that neither can be solved immediately by a new government and that other issues can be.
Brexit is the single key on which the rest depends. Without reversing brexit they will not be able to achieve anything much.
Bollox. There are a whole hose of things that can be done without even touching the live rail of Brexit, you're just too stubborn and pig headed to be willing to see it. No one can simply reverse Brexit. Not now, not ever. We can negotiate a return to the EU, but it will be under VERY different terms and would require massive negotiation and massive support both inside the EU and the UK, neither of which you have.
So why would they waste their time on it during their first term of governance why they can actually get shit done?
tjagain
Full Member
If they had pinned the blame for Brexit on the tories and pointed out the damage caused by brexit and that rejoin would be best –
Anyone that doesn't already know Brexit was inflicted upon them by the Tories is a lost cause. They either like Brexit and will vote Reform or at the very least are willing to forgive the Tory party for it and vote Tory again.
I am fundamentally against Labour making promises, however laudable, that could cost them the election. It's completely unacceptable to allow the Tories another GE victory.
I hate Brexit but I hate the Tories far more. Whatever damage Brexit is doing will only be enhanced by another 5 years of Tory.
Brexit is fundamentally flawed and it will be undone in time but the house is on fire and I'll worry about replacing my porn collection after the fire is out.😉
