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I’m really enjoying the SW resurgence of the LD. Labour have no chance here in the South Cotswolds, but the LD are finally level pegging with the Conservatives. Finally!
Yes, no matter how bad the seat predictions are for the tories they always seem to show them winning in the borders and here in Aberdeenshire. May explain why we’ve not even had any SNP leaflets so far. Just two from the tories and one LD 🙁
I am struggling to understand why one of Sunaks bodyguards has been arrested due to his lucky bet and yet the tory mp... hasnt
The police officer was supposedly charged with misconduct in public office, and the hint was that Craig Williams might be looked at for cheating under s42 of the Gambling Act. These are both quite different and rare offences: it looks like only one person was ever convicted under the Gambling Act offence. I wonder if it is actually that clear whether having inside info really is cheating - although tbf these solicitors seem to think it clearly is.
Also, it seems like the police are investigating the police officer but it's the Gambling Commission that is investigating the politician. And finally arrest is not a punitive measure - you don't need to arrest someone in order to charge them.
If I were a gambling man, I'd bet that the police officer is charged and convicted and the politician isn't.
I can't read that torygraph headline without surfaris popping into it.
If I were a gambling man, I’d bet that the police officer is charged and convicted and the politician isn’t.
What baffles me slightly is the fact that the bets were placed at all - not in the sense that the it was poor behaviour on the part of the politicians / police involved (the sums bet / won were hardly lifechanging so it all seems like a stupid lapse than the plot of an Oceans 11 spin off)
What I don't understand is who in their right mind offers the bet? You offer odds on outcomes that involve chance. One horse might be demostrably better than another but circumstances on the day mean the outcome is never certain. I can see how you could offer odds on the outcome of an election, and on aspects of the outcome of an election - because for all the polling there are going to be surprises of one sort or another. Up til the finish line / final whistle / moment the results are called no-one knows that information on which a bet is decided with certainty
But the date of the election - someone plans that, and then announces the plan. So theres period (possibly since January according to some sources) between the decision and the announcement where there is knowledge that insiders (or opportunists, or spies, or the cleaners) will have that the bookies don't. Surely they'd be mad to offer bets on that.
Without derailing too far, the police officer was referred by the gambling commission. How did the nookies know that he was a close protection officer? Surely that's a serious worry. By it's very nature that job should be kept quiet.
I'd also be pushing for the arrest of the mps if I was the officers federation contact.
So theres period (possibly since January according to some sources) between the decision and the announcement where there is knowledge that insiders (or opportunists, or spies, or the cleaners) will have that the bookies don’t. Surely they’d be mad to offer bets on that.
I'm not aware that bookies check your occupation or why you picked the date you are betting on? Hence rules around cheating.
By it’s very nature that job should be kept quiet.
Close protection officers are the ones you see on the telly every day, not exactly secret. But again, the bookies won't check your occupation - they'll be checking who they paid out to on the election date bet and working backwards from there - presumably in support of the Gambling Commission and Police.
Suspect the result will lie somewhere between those two maps in the telegraph. Can see why swinney has played the independance card to get the voters out in Scotland
Just saw the Torygraph headline and figured they were trying to scare Tory supporters to get their postal votes in.
How did the nookies know that he was a close protection officer?
The Gambling Commission asked the bookies to review all election date bets. The bookies will know all the names, DOBs and addresses of the punters (and maybe their occupation - do you have to mention it when signing up as part of KYC checks?). The police would have located the officer just using the info the bookies gave to them.
Surely they’d be mad to offer bets on that.
I'd assumed that most of these novelty bets are just disguised marketing (it gets Paddy Power's name in the press) and they don't allow too much money to be staked on them. But maybe I'm wrong.
I’m not aware that bookies check your occupation
I'm not sure it's a question of occupation. You bet on future events where the outcome is unknown. Not on events where the outcome will have been decided, just not yet announced. You're effectively betting on a past event.
The bookies will know all the names, DOBs and addresses of the punters (and maybe their occupation – do you have to mention it when signing up as part of KYC checks?).
I think some KYC checks require you to say if you are a politically exposed person. Not sure if gambling sites require that though.
Politically exposed persons should be identified by World Check or whatever KYC screening platform the institution is using behind the scenes. I don't know if bookies, banks etc ask the client if they're a PEP during sign up - I wouldn't rely on it much as you can't trust what clients say and PEP is a technical concept. I'd have to look up what definition UK bookies have to use because a police officer wouldn't necessarily be a PEP everywhere. Williams definitely would be.
Was out with a couple of work colleagues yesterday, voted tory last time but in safe labour constituencies. They are solid dead set on voting Reform now. Said they'd never vote conservative again and finally they had someone 'who speaks up for the working class white man' whatever that means. I suppose that's good right now as its taking votes away from the tories, but it's going to be trouble down the road for labour after 5 years of more of the same.
What sort of guy is Starmer and what can we make of his decision making record?
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012/jul/29/paul-chambers-twitter-joke-airport
Authoritarian, vindictive, overbearing? Perfect material for a socialist party leader to be fair.
A great judge of character.
Decided not to prosecute police over the killing of Ian Tomlinson. Man of the people!
His track record is not what you'd call glowing.
Is that the sound of a barrel being scraped?
I think you need to be a bit more aware of what you're doing with posts like these.
Without derailing too far, the police officer was referred by the gambling commission. How did the nookies know that he was a close protection officer
They dont seem to have known hence why if it wasnt for the tory mp the cop would have got away with it.
The gambling commission got the list of "lucky" gamblers and then they seem to have then asked the tories and I assume the met "recognise anyone?"
What sort of guy is Starmer and what can we make of his decision making record?
What's your experience of being a Director of Public Prosecutions?
How did the nookies know that he was a close protection officer
Judging by the rosette, I'd guess they had some inside info from an MP.
About Laura Saunders - the story gets better:
The BBC can reveal this morning that the Conservative candidate being looked into by the Gambling Commission over a bet relating to the timing of the general election is married to the party’s Director of Campaigns.
Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, has worked for the Tories since 2015.
It is not known when the bet was placed or for how much money.
She is married to Tony Lee, who is the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigns.
Jimmy Saville coming in 3 2 1…..
There's very dark joke I want to make but will refrain
What sort of guy is Starmer and what can we make of his decision making record?
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012/jul/29/paul-chambers-twitter-joke-airport
Authoritarian, vindictive, overbearing? Perfect material for a socialist party leader to be fair.
Article based on the belief of the defendant's friends....proper evidence, well done
https://www.****/news/article-2386698/Killer-Simon-Hall-protested-innocence-12-years-admits-Joan-Alberts-murder.htmlA great judge of character.
Didn't happen under Starmer and the article only includes his comments as he was DPP at the time Hall confessed. He responded with his knowledge of how the law works...almost no evidence and no motive. 1 single link. Weighing evidence, considering facts and the capability to prosecute. Sounds like a good lawyer to me.
Decided not to prosecute police over the killing of Ian Tomlinson. Man of the people!
Based on the advice of several medical experts who could not agree on the cause of death, determined that a public prosecution would be a waste of taxpayers money as a conviction would be very difficult to secure.
His track record is not what you’d call glowing.
It sounds to me like he considers all evidence and the advice of experts before making decisions and when doing so, also considers the value of said decisions in consideration of the country....
Rational, constructive, considerate...sounds like a great man for PM.
That Torygraph front page map shows my constituency as being blue. I love where I live but, seriously, how can it be possible that my neighbours would choose to vote Tory. It baffles me.
In our constituency it's a combination of old-school money and touch-the-forelock folk who vote Tory, and there's plenty of the latter. Older too, over 65's make up +25%, and getting even older.
The Tory betting scandal is ridiculous, how can they not know it would catch up with them?!
Also hear that a lot of bets placed on reform winning Clacton just before Farages announcement, and that's exactly the sort of thing you'd expect of him & his acolytes
Nothing to see here... perfectly reasonable point in the campaign to take a holiday if you're campaign director.
They can't be proper Tories. They can't even get their corruption right any more.
Imagine being told the date of the election in advance and only sticking a hundred quid on it?
Lol! Just took a call from Ed 'Action Man' Davey's campaign team - wants us to put him in a kayak on Saturday morning for a photo shoot....
Happy to oblige!
They can’t be proper Tories. They can’t even get their corruption right any more.
They have always been crap at making decent money from it.
Like when Desmond gave about 20k and just happened to be allowed to dodge the affordable housing requirement which was worth millions to him.
Gotta hadn it to Farage, when it comes to making cash out of the gullible
here he is celebrating the inflation he caused after shorting the £
yet still his fans worship him
I do hope he gets busted putting a bet on hinself to win clacton
reeksy Full Member
Do people seriously pay 3 quid for a copy of the Telegraph! **** me!
My octogenarian parents still buy it every day (except they get the Sunday Times on Sunday). I'm not convinced that they've realised quite how extreme it's gotten over the past few years.
Well, looks like the Tories are going to leave office in the manner they held it.
Incompetence, sleaze, shady money dealings and utterly incapable of organising a piss up in a brewery.
What a load of shunts they are.
"The Tory betting scandal is ridiculous, how can they not know it would catch up with them?!"
They really aren't that bright, despite the ££££££'s per year private education they all receive.
Last week I was full of election fatigue. But reading some constituency polling has put up the chances of potential change in my constituency, which is vaguely exciting! 2 poll companies show a lib dem gain. I'd written off any chance of change here. Newbury is generally Tory, though it was Lib Dem in 2005 parliament. I'd assumed the incumbent would win through being very inoffensive and fairly vanilla, and having a 16k+ majority. But, due to lib dems usually getting 20% vote share, it is actually No.34 on the Lib Dem target list. Reform also have a candidate to take some votes, and there's a boundary change.
This would explain the amount of campaign material coming through the door, plus the signs everywhere. The one tory leaflet I had through was pretty pathetic in what they claimed to have achieved, or would. It's tone was 'we've filled in 3 pot holes this parliament, and will achieve world peace by 2029'. It may be false hope, but i'm a bit more enlivened now by the possibility of local change.
