[Closed] The union

If in 5 years time Corbyn is elected to Downing Street, i reckon he will have done so taking a large percentage of votes back from the SNP and independence will be a wreck.

Corbyn could take every seat in Scotland and the Tories would lose one. To form a govt Corbyn needs to take the Tory/Labour marginals in England and maybe hope a LidDem revival takes a few off the Tories.

If the Tories win again they can justifiably hold the SNP to their once in a generation statements prior to the referendum.

independence will just be a matter of time.

A generation, perhaps even a lifetime

They can hold onto them all the like, a generation is only a matter of time and can have many definitions.

But tbh i'm just passing opinion here on how things will go in scotland, i don't particularly care about the union or independence, I didn't vote yes for nationalistic reasons, there are many like me.

Like i say the scottish elections will be interesting. I SL can hold on to a batch of constituency seats, even with an eedjit like dugdale in charge, it'll be a strong indicator for the GE, and the future for the SNP.

But Scottish independence requires the people in Scotland to vote for it. It doesn't matter how many Westminster MPs, how much of the Scottish parliment is SNP, if the next (if / when) referendum votes for no to independence then that will be how it remains.

The press and politicians can sound off as much as they like, but it's the votes in the ballot box that counts.

Corbyn could take every seat in Scotland and the Tories would lose one. To form a govt Corbyn needs to take the Tory/Labour marginals in England and maybe hope a LidDem revival takes a few off the Tories.

Of course if they campaign for pulling out of the EU they could take literally all of UKIPs vote for one term which adds about 15pc country wide. That would help. Plus the green vote might go to Labour, every little helps.

a generation is only a matter of time and can have many definitions.

True. But support for independence can change in both directions. Assuming the Tories win in 2020 it's a fair bet there's no referendum for at least 10 years. If a week is a long time in politics who knows how the landscape will look in 2026.

The SNP IMO have the tactical problem that a Labour govt might coincide with a drop in SNP support. Continued Tory govts can just refuse a referendum for the next "generation."

Best chance might be a Labour/SNP coalition with a referendum as a condition. That depends both on the right electoral arithmetic and having a Labour leader happy to go down in history as breaking up the UK.

irc - Member
Corbyn could take every seat in Scotland and the Tories would lose one. To form a govt Corbyn needs to take the Tory/Labour marginals in England and maybe hope a LidDem revival takes a few off the Tories

irc - Member
a generation is only a matter of time and can have many definitions.
True. But support for independence can change in both directions. Assuming the Tories win in 2020 it's a fair bet there's no referendum for at least 10 years. If a week is a long time in politics who knows how the landscape will look in 2026.

The SNP IMO have the tactical problem that a Labour govt might coincide with a drop in SNP support. Continued Tory govts can just refuse a referendum for the next "generation."

Best chance might be a Labour/SNP coalition with a referendum as a condition. That depends both on the right electoral arithmetic and having a Labour leader happy to go down in history as breaking up the UK.

I'd largey agree, apart from i don't think the tory's could hold out forever. They can't claim to be a democratic party if Scotland continually approves referendum manifestos.

But will they? Last time 50% voted for the SNP and 50% for unionist parties. Not overwhelming support. So depends whether SNP drifts up or down. Either is possible.

If the SNP have a referendum manifesto and get 45% of the vote and 2/3rd of the seats is that a justification for a referendum?

irc - Member
I'd largey agree, apart from i don't think the tory's could hold out forever. They can't claim to be a democratic party if Scotland continually approves referendum manifestos.
But will they? Last time 50% voted for the SNP and 50% for unionist parties. Not overwhelming support. So depends whether SNP drifts up or down. Either is possible.

If the SNP have a referendum manifesto and get 45% of the vote and 2/3rd of the seats is that a justification for a referendum?

You're basically saying the tories don't have a right to govern at the moment.

Btw 51.3% voted for pro ref parties, SNP + the Scottish Greens.

Calling bencooper!

Calling bencooper!

Invasion imminent!

Invasion imminent coming from the South!

Prepare yourself!

😆

For the long term survival of the union, most importantly we need all the major parties to stop acting like Scotland has already left. Corbyn's obviously up for that, so it's a start.

But as long as casting Scotland as the scary outsiders plays well in middle England it looks like the Tories will continue to do so, and that'll wreck the union. It's essential that there's no more "would you do a deal with the SNP", no more "we cannot allow these people to have a voice in our parliament", no more talk of us stealing english people's money, no more suggestion that the SNP holding any power is undemocratic and that 50% of Scottish votes are invalid. But imo there will be, and it'll carry on being the most effective wedge between us.

In the short term, a Corbyn win is definitely good for the union. Ironically I think a Corbyn disaster is too- because it means another 5 years where people can say "Well, the Tories only won this time because Labour sucked, maybe next time Labour will do better", same as we did with Milliband- because let's be honest, we can't really blame England for voting against Milliband, he was a tit. We didn't vote for him either!

But a credible Corbyn performance that still gets rejected by England, that's a big nail in the coffin imo.

Northwind - Member

In the short term, a Corbyn win is definitely good for the union. Ironically I think a Corbyn disaster is too- because it means another 5 years where people can say "Well, the Tories only won this time because Labour sucked, maybe next time Labour will do better", same as we did with Milliband- because let's be honest, we can't really blame England for voting against Milliband, he was a tit. We didn't vote for him either!

They can't claim to be a democratic party if Scotland continually approves referendum manifestos

Several friends voted SNP in May because they felt it would be safe to do so following the IndyRef result and because they were disillusioned with Labour. If it goes back on the table, that support won't be there.

I suspect the SNP achieved a high point because at the same time they could point to nasty Tories against a background of spending cuts, useless Labour and pointless LibDems. I struggle to see how that set of circumstances can be repeated or improved upon.

The influence of Corbyn on Scottish Labours performance next May will be interesting to watch.

Its amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to

Politics eh

If Scotland keeps voting for independent parties and having no UK parties then the writing really is on the wall for the Union

EVEL will help the nationalist cause, too.

That's the democratic system we live under, so yes it will be, even if 45% it should be enough to call a ref

Not my reading of it. I'd say that was 55% not wanting a referendum. Not sure the SNP would want one then either. Another No vote and it could be a long long time before another chance. Going for another referendum after SNP support had fallen by 5 or 6% might not be the wisest move.

Its amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to

With two results possible and a number of statements made which related only to one or other result it is logical only those relating to the "no" vote come in to play.

Clearly had there been a "yes" he'd have got to negotiate on all the ridiculous promises and the question of another referendum (even for disappointed no voters) wouldn't have arisen.

Union? Correct scrutiny of SNP actions not rhetoric. Safe.....

Scots are canny folk after all as the once in a generation referendum showed - given the timeframe they must have thought long and hard about it. No flash, short term decision.

Politics eh

😀

[quote=Junkyard ]Its amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to

I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. Easy enough to say "you're full of shit, but why don't you try and prove for once that you're not" 😉

Scots* are canny folk after all as the once in a generation referendum showed

* It was still a vote in Scotland it was not a vote of the Scots

But it doesn't matter whether you think that was just another bit of the BS - you can still call him on it.

teamhurtmore - Member
Union? Correct scrutiny of SNP actions not rhetoric. Safe.....

irc - Member
That's the democratic system we live under, so yes it will be, even if 45% it should be enough to call a ref
Not my reading of it. I'd say that was 55% not wanting a referendum. Not sure the SNP would want one then either. Another No vote and it could be a long long time before another chance. Going for another referendum after SNP support had fallen by 5 or 6% might not be the wisest move.

Btw Alex Salmond isn't the scottish sovereign, he doesn't get to dictate what the scottish people want. What he says isn't law. It's irrelevant.

What is relevant is UK law, and a ref can be called at anytime under that, just a case of convincing which ever PM to allow it. They managed it once after the scottish people voted for it in a manefesto, I reckon the precident is set there, which is why it'll be difficult to deny another, if the scottish people vote for it.

The UK gov generally favour law and precident over what alex salmond said in the disappointment of a defeat! 😆

But it doesn't matter whether you think that was just another bit of the BS - you can still call him on it.

Its a position drawn out of political expediency

seosamh77 - maybe, but politics isn't fought on scrutiny, it's fought on perception.

Maybe, maybe not. I thought Sillars was clear that the inability to put forward a currency argument that withstood scrutiny was a major reason for the open goal being missed (ok the last part of that were not his words!)

teamhurtmore - Member
seosamh77 - maybe, but politics isn't fought on scrutiny, it's fought on perception.
Maybe, maybe not. I thought Sillars was clear that the inability to put forward a currency argument that withstood scrutiny was a major reason for the open goal being missed (ok the last part of that were not his words!)

But that was the nature of it, no didn't need to have alot of substance, just generate enough destrust. And yes were always going to be stuck with a certain vague-ness.

I'm no great fan of the snp, so i agree with alot of the criticism branded at them.

Their inability to just say yes, we have an alternative currency which is x, was pretty ridiculous. They did give an upper hand there.

ts amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to

I think you'll find that "The SNP has always said that in our view, these kind of referendums are once in a generation events, this is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity for Scotland"

(Nicola Sturgeon, Sept 2013, interview here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24147303 4:40 in)

So Junky, are you claiming that Nicola is also full of shit, half truths and lies?

ninfan - Member
ts amazing how all those who spent a great deal of time telling us how AS was a liar and full of shit now insist his honest proclamation must be adhered to
I think you'll find that "The SNP has always said that in our view, these kind of referendums are once in a generation events, this is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity for Scotland"

(Nicola Sturgeon, Sept 2013, interview here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24147303 4:40 in)

So Junky, are you claiming that Nicola is also full of shit, half truths and lies?

That's what you are arguing.

Calling bencooper!

Calling bencooper!

Invasion imminent!

Invasion imminent coming from the South!

Prepare yourself!

Is this another one of your chat-up lines?

Sometimes, you just get a permanent change of opinion in a country. It happened when the UK turned against slavery. It happened when the USSR collapsed. And it happened last year in Scotland.

We don't feel a part of the UK any more. Perhaps not enough yet to vote for independence, but that's only a matter of time - the only age group that supports the Union is the over-65s. We're not interested in UK-wide political parties any more, and I don't think Corbyn will change that.

It's not up to politicians when we get independence. It's not up to Mundell when he says no more referendums for 15 years. It's not up to Salmond when he said it's once in a generation. It's up to the people - if we want another referendum, we'll have one.

bencooper - Member
Is this another one of your chat-up lines?

😆 (must try harder next time ... )

So Junky, are you claiming that Nicola is also full of shit, half truths and lies?

'That's the democratic system we live under, so yes it will be, even if 45% it should be enough to call a ref.'

So how many times do they get to call a ref until they win one? And if they eventually get 51% for yes, is that justification for splitting up the union irreversibly.

Perhaps if there is a yes vote we should hold off with independence for another 5 years and have a rerun.... 'just to be sure'...

Seems only fair given the SNP appear to think that there are 10% of voters who will quite possibly change there mind on the issue from one year to the next.

Or once they get over the 50% mark is that it done and dusted, 'Scotland has voted' and its time to put the matter to bed. I suspect it will be.

tpbiker - Member

So how many times do they get to call a ref until they win one?

As many as we want; that's democracy. How many elections should we have before declaring one party the winners forever?

tpbiker - Member

And if they eventually get 51% for yes, is that justification for splitting up the union irreversibly.

Nope. But it's not irreversible, so that's OK.

Best chance might be a Labour/SNP coalition with a referendum as a condition.

Would be very surprised to see a formal Lab / SNP pact founded on the promise of another indyref. Labour needs Scotland in the Union too much to risk permanently losing those Scottish Labour voters currently flirting with the SNP. Corbyn's leftist credentials may reel some back in and slightly weaken the SNP in the short term but if those same credentials turn England a deeper shade of blue than it is already, the next election will leave Scottish Labour voters with a real dilemma of following the gormless Dugdale and losing or choosing SNP flavoured socialism to escape the tories. All depends what they regard as the least worst option between an SNP led Scotland or a Tory led UK.

Do you believe the democratic rights of people should be superceded by a few historic soundbytes?

You don't have a democratic right to a referendum on independence - you seem to keep forgetting that you are [i]constitutionally bound[/i] into the union "for ever after" - Article one of the Act of Union!

If his leadership collapses in the face of infighting and a right wing fightback, then that will pretty much solidify the SNP's position in Scotland and independence will just be a matter of time.

Guess the first tester of that theory is the Scottish elections next year.

The support for the SNP at the last election should be read with the fact that they did not put independence on the table and had declared that the issue was settled for a generation (which at the time more people took to be more than 10 minutes) Votes for the SNP in May can not be called votes for independence, some might have been others may not.

Precident nifan, its been set, if the people if Scotland want a ref they'll get one. Laws and treaties can always be reversed.

Can we not just have a free Yorkshire vote? All these other winging none entities in the country do not deserve our Yorkshire greatness. Once gone we'll flower as a Yorkshire nation and they'll ney see are like again. Free Yorkshire and it better be cheap.

Mike no one is calling votes in may, votes for independence or a referendum, do keep up.

Mt, do as you please, I'll support your democratic rights.

BTW in the gfa it is stipulated that a referendum in northern Ireland cannot be held less than every 7 years. I don't see why that should not apply to Scotland.

Actually, it might even be a good idea to make referendums a regular thing. If the Union is so great, where's the problem? Just ask everyone every few years "Is this still working for you?"

Precident nifan, its been set,

If any precedent has been set, it would be that major constitutional referenda on issues such as devolution or independence occur rarely, many years apart, eg. 1979, 1997, 2014 - 'once in a generation' you might say, not just an ongoing neverendum.

...So how many times do they get to call a ref until they win one?

Until they collectively "grow a set" and decide to become an independent state I guess.
Can't help but feel they "had their big chance and blew it" , and from here on it's all just gas and pebbles - shame, it would have been fun to watch

We just, and sorry if this sounds crude, have to wait until the Union-loving pensioners die off. Then it's a done deal.

You don't have a democratic right to a referendum on independence - you seem to keep forgetting that you are constitutionally bound into the union "for ever after" - Article one of the Act of Union!

It is well known convention that one parliament cannot bind another one. Any and all acts can be repealed by any following govt.
It therefore seems reasonable to argue the ruling of a 17 th Century one, not elected by Universal suffrage, cannot bind the people of Scotland now.

Neverenduum made me chuckle

Quite a horrible comment to make, putting political preferences over human life - says it all really

We just, and sorry if this sounds crude, have to wait until the Union-loving pensioners die off. Then it's a done deal.

You're waiting for the days when the elderly are no longer more conservative than the young? Good luck with that.

Tbh 2030 sounds about right to me for another one anyhow ninfan, i actially agree that successive tory governments will reject any ref, and fly in the face of democracy. But like I say just a matter of time. Unless something drastic happens in UK politics, more of the same doesn't bode well.

fly in the face of democracy

Perhaps the SNP might see about using the next 15 or 20 years and increased devolved powers to demonstrate the capacity of Scotland to thrive as it gains more autonomy.

Last time there was too much supposition, baseless assertion and uncertainty to bridge. As the gap in powers between devolution and independence narrows it becomes easier to argue how to get across it.

Quite a horrible comment to make, putting political preferences over human life - says it all really

Errrrr.......Maggie Thatcher (there, I've said it!).
To get back on topic I don't think Scotland is alone in this. I personally feel disassociated with the whole political process. I hope the 'London Bubble' bursts soon but am afraid it will not until we devolve power regionally. The sooner cities like Birmingham and Manchester gain more political momentum and gain control over their own funding and how it's spent the better.

Tbh if youse hadn't noticed I'm not particularly shouting for another ref. The whole corbyn thing interests me greatly and is preferable to snp hegemony. But if that fails I'll much prefer the SNP to the Tory dominance(of whichever hue) of UK politics.

Fair point, agree 100%!

...Errrrr.......Maggie Thatcher (there, I've said it!).

Yup, ben "granny killer" cooper in the same league as the mother of all that is evil, nice comparison 😉

We just, and sorry if this sounds crude, have to wait until the Union-loving pensioners die off. Then it's a done deal.

As many as we want; that's democracy.

You mean as you want....Despite the fact the SNP has all but 2 seats in Scotland it only has half the vote...and of those not all will want independence. The fact that this has raised its ugly head so soon after last time tells me that the SNP are far more interested in their own agenda than serving the people of Scotland.

How many elections should we have before declaring one party the winners forever?

But its not the same at all really is it, daft argument.

Nope. But it's not irreversible, so that's OK.

You honestly think that there would be the opportunity for an independent Scotland to rejoin the union, at least in the short to medium term? How would that work?

tpbiker - Member

You honestly think that there would be the opportunity for an independent Scotland to rejoin the union, at least in the short to medium term? How would that work?

It'd work by both parties going "Let's get together" and then doing it. You know, like last time. And like every other time 2 countries combined.

tpbiker - Member
As many as we want; that's democracy.
You mean as you want....Despite the fact the SNP has all but 2 seats in Scotland it only has half the vote...

If a referendum is put in a manifesto and voted down, people are willing to accept that.

We won't accept not having that choice however.

incidently, we're getting an EU referendum on the basis only around 50% of the electorate voting for it.

tpbiker - Member

You honestly think that there would be the opportunity for an independent Scotland to rejoin the union, at least in the short to medium term? How would that work?

When something is talked about as being reversible, there's an implicit assumption that the decision to reverse is in the same hands as those that made the original decision.

It wouldn't be as rUK would have to agree. So, whilst it is possible, it doesn't mean that it is a foregone conclusion.

We won't accept not having that choice however.

Can you imagine a role reversal situation where, following a Yes vote but before separation, a revival of unionist leaning Labour and decline in SNP support justified another poll,just to check? I can imagine lots of SNP demands that the referendum result be respected.

Yup, ben "granny killer" cooper in the same league as the mother of all that is evil, nice comparison

What?

Old people die eventually - I'm sorry if this statement of fact is incredibly shocking to you. Going by all the polls, support for independence is highest in the youngest age groups, and only drops below 50% in the over-65s.

I know there's a theory that people get more right-wing as they age, not sure if that's really true. I'm also pretty unsure if the same can be said for support for independence.

If the union is so good for the UK why wouldn't it be a possibility?

Oh, keep up - we're a massive drain on the UK and completely unable to look after ourselves, that's why we have to stay in the Union for our own good so we can get some adult supervision. The rUK doesn't really want us (apart for grouse shooting etc) but is selflessly looking after us.

😀

Did you lot learn NOTHING from the last monster thread?!

£10 on 50 pages.

oldbloke - Member
When something is talked about as being reversible, there's an implicit assumption that the decision to reverse is in the same hands as those that made the original decision.

It wouldn't be as rUK would have to agree. So, whilst it is possible, it doesn't mean that it is a foregone conclusion.

We won't accept not having that choice however.
Some of us assume the choice made in Sept 2014, billed as a once in a generation choice, is a democratic decision which needs to be respected for a while - perhaps even a generation.
Can you imagine a role reversal situation where, following a Yes vote but before separation, a revival of unionist leaning Labour and decline in SNP support justified another poll,just to check? I can imagine lots of SNP demands that the referendum result be respected.

Politics don't stand still for very long.

Anyhow, I'm out justifying the right to a referendum, you either agree with it or not. I really wasn't wanting this to turn into to that type of tedium and have to explain how democracy works. Personally I thought it was bloody obvious, but clearly not.

Did you lot learn NOTHING from the last monster thread?!

£10 on 50 pages.

It's the first anniversary, the old band is getting back together 😀

Oh lord please no

It wont happen if Molly can noble Ben 😉

oldbloke - Member

When something is talked about as being reversible, there's an implicit assumption that the decision to reverse is in the same hands as those that made the original decision.

No, there really isn't.

Old Angus was quite good on PMQ I thought (did I say that?)

Much harder to reverse cutting a rope IMO - hence need reasoned thought before undertaking such a move!

teamhurtmore - Member
Old Angus was quite good on PMQ I thought (did I say that?)

He was aye, I'd like to see him and corbyn get on the same page regarding questions, that'd be an interesting tactic.

teamhurtmore - Member
Much harder to reverse cutting a rope IMO - hence need reasoned thought before undertaking such a move!

Agree, I don't think anyone with think it would be easy.

Matter of time, could be infinity. I very much doubt a Conservative government will grant Scotland another referendum with a binding "Westminster" agreement. A referendum isn't going to be in the Labour parties interests so I don't think any coalition with the SNP would agree to one. The SNP can hold its own vote if it wishes much like the Catalans did but there is no obligation to recognise it. As per our prior discussions why shouldn't the rest of the UK not get a referendum on Scottish Independence as it impacts us ?

Scotland has one of the most devolved Parliaments in the world. It's time to get on with making use of that. The SNP are geniuses at diversion, they manage to divert attention from their (lack of) success in government and the fact with oil at the current price their economic plans would be in tatters.