The Covid Inquiry.

Pretty much a pointless affair and nothing whatsoever is going to come of it.

Already most of the witnesses are speaking in the terms of the 'system' failing, rather than individual players being so utterly incompetent they should be getting prosecuted.

I noted the 3 day doubling on the 10th March (it’s on my blog on that date, I believe I actually wrote it in the 9th). That’s two weeks before SAGE.<br />

Me too. In fact I posted it here. To be fair. Neil Ferguson presented my analysis on March 14th to SAGE probably as an AOB. I had my first contact with Patrick Vallance (outside of my Day job when he was previously head of R&D at GSK) on the 16th. Most of SPI-M were too busy trying to fit SEIR models to exponential growth. The failure was that these models needed info on the incubation and recovery times. Which was not available. I just assumed we looked like all other countries with some lag time. And we did. Only ONE other SPI-M scientist made the same analysis about a week later using Italy data with UK.
And the rest is history.

So what happened at SAGE?

Only Brits involved? And they weren’t talking to any of their peers in any other country? And they’d turned off the phones, TV, radio, the internet?

Worth reading the Singletrack thread for what was being said here at the time, mostly based on what experts the world over were saying out loud, and other governments were acting on.

Waiting for UK data was wasting time when we could see what was happening in countries ahead on the curve.

It’s impressive how much they’ve managed to skate over their own errors in all this. I suppose I was naive to expect any reflection or self-examination from them.

The chutzpah of Edmunds is amazing, he was completely reinventing history by disowning the herd immunity strategy which he had nothing to do with of course. This might surprise those who watched Channel 4 News in early March 2020 or Channel 5, who would have seen him arguing against lockdowns and explaining the merits of the government plan.

Already most of the witnesses are speaking in the terms of the ‘system’ failing

But this is a very big issue, it is quite clear our "Rolls Royce" civil service were running around like headless chickens, whatever the merits of political leadership, our government is based on the premise of a permanent professional impartial executive guided by political leadership - there is little evidence that the current setup meets this purpose. But the chances of the Inquiry addressing these issues in any depth are slim - the knockabout political stuff is too good copy.

Jail them all especially Boris the clown.

On the second thought, don't jail them coz they have family, but put them to community work like washing the roads or something.

It's far from being pointless.
What are we learning? Joined up thinking is important essential in government; telling porkies when attempting (and failing) to manage a pandemic is hugely destructive; those damned 'experts' actually have some value and relevance; 'technocratic capability' is essential; failing to plan produces exactly the same result as planning to fail; honesty and the willingness to be accountable is massively important; dysfunctionality is not the exception at the highest level of government; the peter principle is thoroughly validated here.
The list is long.

I completely agree that there should be prosecutions but if that was ever even a remote possibility...much more information would have disappeared, witnesses would have been more 'economical with the truth' and that would actually have made it a truly pointless enquiry.

Think of the Grenfell enquiry - the truth only began to emerge, slowly, after it was confirmed that witnesses would be granted immunity from prosecution.

I, for one, welcomed Cummings candid assessments of his 'colleagues' - describing them, their performance and capabilities in terms which could not be misinterpreted.
To borrow a phrase...harsh, but fair.

it is quite clear our “Rolls Royce” civil service were running around like headless chickens

Mainly because the civil service exists to facilitate the whims of those in charge? The government? All the while being undermined by Cummings et al? Wtf would you expect!?

Currently watching a short summary of Cummings' statements (thanks PoliticsJoe). Wow. He's really a horrible person.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-67281086

Compare/contrast. This is why.

The 'misogynistic comments' thing had been extensively trailed too, by the usual Johnson cultists

SQUIRREL!!!

His defence was unarguable really. He was/is equally obnoxious to absolutely everyone, regardless of gender, creed or colour

Worth reading the Singletrack thread for what was being said here at the time, mostly based on what experts the world over were saying out loud, and other governments were acting on.

The first chunk of the Coronavirus thread is certainly interesting to re-read three years on.

The failure was that these models needed info on the incubation and recovery times. Which was not available. I just assumed we looked like all other countries with some lag time. And we did.

But of course! It astounds me that the experiences of other comparable populations wouldn't be the logical starting point. But I do hope that the politicians don't find a way to heap all the blame on scientific advice made in good faith when it is clear they were resistant to doing the right thing as well.

I, for one, welcomed Cummings candid assessments of his ‘colleagues’ – describing them, their performance and capabilities in terms which could not be misinterpreted.
To borrow a phrase…harsh, but fair.

He's very much deflecting blame, @mefty is partly right, the effing and jeffing has become the story. It should centred around a man who's unfailing view of himself as a genius unfettered by normal moral constraints was in full public display again yesterday. Look at how he was dressed, look at how he spoke, all a carefully crafted performance. He was suddenly relevant again - What exactly has he done since Nov 2020 when he was unceremoniously sacked? No regrets about his Barnard Castle visit, everyone around him useless, everyone (but him) unclear and running around like a headless chicken, sack all the Cabinet. Sack all the CS that I don't like. Get rid of the women asking too many questions. If this enquiry reveals anything, it should at least convince everyone watching that Cummings should be let no where near anything more important than redecorating a bathroom, or writing his unreadable* blog

*Read by folks who no doubt feel themselves to be geniuses, and happily pay the tenner a month for all the reinforcement they can get.

@nickc - pretty much the same conclusion drawn by John Crace in the Guardian. A good summary...

Genius among morons Dominic Cummings gives Halloween display of his ego

31 October. Halloween. Dominic Cummings has decided to come dressed for his appearance before the Covid inquiry as … Dominic Cummings. Of course he had. He’s a one-man horror show. A man who has arguably done even more damage to the country than his former useful idiot, Boris Johnson.

But of course! It astounds me that the experiences of other comparable populations wouldn’t be the logical starting point

The SAGE/SPI-M view was one of groupthink (R0 anyone? - i always preferred doubling time), one epidemiological analysis method and a concentration on the UK data. It wasn’t universal, but was mainstream. uncertainties in the disease made parameter estimation unreliable. I just brought some statistical nous instead (nonlinear mixed effects models if interested). Collating the data was also not easy. The European CDC were collating numbers manually into a daily spreadsheet, which I used. OWID was months away. The COVID dashboard too.

I only had good interactions with civil servants. As the levers of government, they can only act as instructed. They were always professional. Never talked politics. SPI-M was given instructions on predicting scenarios of interest. I didn’t do any of that as (i explained here), statistical models are not mechanistic and good for two to four weeks (at best).

The enquiry is just confirming everyone’s suspicions at the time. The biggest learning really for me is DATA. You need it, accurate and early. we were flying instrument free a the start. 

So what happened at SAGE? Was it a collective delusion, political influence in the background, or just a couple of loud voices?

Groupthink, anchoring bias, not invented here syndrome. Circling the wagons as the criticism and alarm grew stronger. Thinking they were the cleverest people in the room, when they really weren't. Well they might have been in the SAGE meeting room but they weren't in the wider societal debate. All of the above.

It wasn't helped by the fact that the "something must be done" crowd really didn't have a strategy either, just saying "let's keep it out" was never going to work indefinitely, the scientists knew that.

However, what they didn't account for, was that we would get better treatment, not just including vaccines (which were regarded as speculative at first) but also various drugs and methods (face down etc).

They also didn't realise that with their preferred strategy we could have been well over 10,000 deaths per day at the peak, which would have been bodies rotting in their houses stuff. We just don't have enough body bags, morgues, crematoriums. Normal death rate is around 1700 per day (a bit more in winter) and systems were creaking at the seams with an additional 1k or so deaths for a couple of weeks. Plus the much larger numbers of seriously ill of course.

For some reason, the SAGE group fixed on 5 day doubling early on in Feb - variously 5-7 days is written in the SAGE minutes - and then dismissed all evidence to the contrary as being due to improved testing and diagnosis and counting (see Edmunds on C4, 13 March I think, for a classic example of this). Even though the initial estimate was only ever a very rough number, coming out of Wuhan, with large error bars. And the 3 day doubling was apparent all over Europe, in countries like Italy, Germany, France, generally socially similar to us, a week or two ahead on the pandemic curve.

There also didn't seem to be anyone in epidemiology who knew much about modern methods for forecasting and more generally estimating uncertain parameters from dodgy data (which is basically the foundation of forecasting, along with having decent models which they did have). This happens to be my speciality - a lot of the theory comes from weather forecasting, in my career I adapted and developed similar methods for climate change which turn out to be well suited to epidemiological models too. Not that it really takes much sophistication to draw a straight line though a log plot as so many people did, but you can do more advanced things too. Even Ferguson's celebrated 16 March paper, which is credited with sparking the lockdown debate, was rather complacent. He suggested we might need to go into lockdown at the end of that month (ie an additional week later, 2 or more doubling times, compared to what really happened on the 23rd).

Helen McNamara confirming that she did say

"I have come here to the Prime Ministers office to tell you all I think we're absolutely ****ed. I think this country is heading for a disaster. I think we are going to kill thousands of people."

Seems like a pretty accurate prophecy. No wonder Dom didn't like her coming in with some home truths

She also said that they let the Liverpool/Atletico Champions League game go ahead (which was utter madness) as nobody in the room had ever actually been to a football match, so they didn't know what the issue was

not invented here syndrome

@thecaptain summarises the situation well. Eventually, once there had been so many interventions that keeping track of them in any form of model was impossible, the near-term projections switched to statistical methods. There was definitely an over-reliance on conventional (in a UK model-based epidemiology sense) approaches to data analysis. I don't think the scientists thought that lockdown was a political option at the time. But I wasn't involved at that time.

There also didn’t seem to be anyone in epidemiology who knew much about modern methods for forecasting and more generally estimating uncertain parameters from dodgy data (which is basically the foundation of forecasting, along with having decent models which they did have). This happens to be my speciality – a lot of the theory comes from weather forecasting, in my career I adapted and developed similar methods for climate change which turn out to be well suited to epidemiological models too.

My wife is from a data modelling/forecasting background, albeit not epidemiological, and she was tearing her hair out from late January onwards with the relatively scant information available even then, and questioning what appeared to be a 'wait and see' approach to a tsunami.

I wonder how much of thinking came from an assumption that our emerging Covid cases had been seeded at a certain point, around half-term, when it is likely that we were already further along the graph without realising it? There are certainly suggestions that northern Italy was seeded by Chinese fashion workers in late 2019.

a man who’s unfailing view of himself as a genius unfettered by normal moral constraints was in full public display again yesterday

He reminds me of the classic sitcom duos (Beavis & Butthead, Dougal & Ted, Baldrick & Blackadder).

Two idiots, one of whom believes that because he is more intelligent than the other idiot, he is therefore more intelligent than everyone. His resulting hubris makes him look like a **** every episode

Again Helen McNamara just summed up what we already knew

That Jonhson and Cummings centralised all decision making in Number ten to a tiny band of people, none of whom had any knowledge or experience in this area. Well we already know that they'd famously 'had enough of experts'

She also commented, again somewhat unsurprisingly, that one of the main problems with these people was 'a total lack of humanity'. Something Boris Johnsons statements more than proved yesterday

Jaysus. But we knew it already. English exceptionalism and public school superiority complex writ large. The only time he started taking it seriously was when it occurred to him that he could look Churchillian as a 'wartime PM'.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1719663978958266702

Two idiots, one of whom believes that because he is more intelligent than the other idiot, he is therefore more intelligent than everyone. His resulting hubris makes him look like a **** every episode

Jump to 50 seconds to see a perfect portrait of Cummings and Johnson displaying their famous skills.

MacNamara has testified that she thinks there wasn't a single day that the rules were followed properly at No10.

I know we shouldn't be surprised any more but holy hell...

MacNamara has testified that she thinks there wasn’t a single day that the rules were followed properly at No10.

You know how many companies had one or two employees that took the whole WFH thing a bit too casually - there was always that one person who was in pyjamas on a video call or who had obviously spent a week on the sofa with Netflix on...?

I think No. 10 were like that but it was more like what happens when you leave a bunch of kids alone for the first time, they just go mental.
Government live under constant scrutiny, press conferences, paparazzi, public appearances... Take all that away and they just ran riot. Didn't help that there was zero leadership - the fly-tipped sofa was shagging around as usual and being pissed in between so everyone else took their cue from that.

No-one is watching, let's have a piss up. So much for the work ethic of the public school education...

It should centred around a man who’s unfailing view of himself as a genius unfettered by normal moral constraints was in full public display again yesterday.

It must be hard be that much of a genius and not to be recognised.
I would advise not looking through his written evidence unless you need to increase your blood pressure. The cockwomble actually has the gall to blame some of the disorganisation and lack of preparation on those nasty people who werent supporting brexit.
I do wonder how after a hard day blog writing how his dinner table conversation goes with his wife especially if its at their London home. Must be awkward saying how he has been criticising the London elite and mainstream media to the daughter of an aristocrat who works as an editor/columnist in the London based main stream media.

What exactly has he done since Nov 2020 when he was unceremoniously sacked?

Isnt he supposed to be trying to create a new political party. Although given his political talents seem to begin and end at negative campaigning I think its a tad hopeful.

No-one is watching, let’s have a piss up. So much for the work ethic of the public school education…

The function of public schools is to shape people who will get rich from the work of others. And people who create rules designed for other people to obey.

Oh, how we laughed when Trump asked if you could cure Covid by injecting bleach. Now it turns out Johnson was asking if you could beat it by directing a hairdryer up your nose.

pretty galling really, im sure everyone broke the rules in some way, inadvertently or not

but to hear that cabinet didnt even try once!  when those of us who were working or just in lockdown were bending over backwards and suffering huge inconvenience to stick to the rules

anyway Johnson as classless as youd expect

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1719663352903872530

Has there ever been a group of people who's ludicrously overinflated idea of their own abilities is so howlingly different from the reality that was so glaringly obvious to everyone around them.

The whole Eton/Oxbridge conveyor belt into power for these ****ing morons has a lot to answer for

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1719668396579504415?s=20

To be fair to Cummings, referring to Hancock as a "useless F*ckpig" doesn't seem to be unreasonable given the evidence that we're hearing.

The general lack of insight that is coming out is absolutely astounding. It sounds like a Russell Group university drinking club were in charge of the country during that period.

Which I suppose in a way, they were.

I don’t think we need to include the whole Russell Group when it’s mostly Oxford.

Has there ever been a group of people who’s ludicrously overinflated idea of their own abilities is so howlingly different from the reality that was so glaringly obvious to everyone around them.

Yes but it was in a sitcom.
Blackadder Goes Forth describing the general's Grand Plan and the tactical ability of Field Marshal Haig spring to mind...

Its unreal that Hancock repeatedly told everyone at Cobra and cabinet meetings that all the planning was done and the country was ready for a pandemic, yet nobody in either of those places asked him for the detail of this alleged plan?

Its difficult to fathom whats worse. Hancock for the initial lie or the lack of curiosity of the rest of them

I mean, we all knew it was bad, but this is truly staggering just how bad

I don’t think we need to include the whole Russell Group when it’s mostly Oxford.

Not even Oxbridge, to be fair, almost entirely Oxford. Strangely the Tories at Cambridge seem to be slightly less mental.

Anyone else keep misreading "Boris was bullish" as "Boris was bullshit"?

To be fair to Cummings, referring to Hancock as a “useless F*ckpig” doesn’t seem to be unreasonable given the evidence that we’re hearing.

Not much of a defence though.
Its like me calling someone a bit of shit rider whilst also talking about how I could win the tdf and the downhill world champs if only I wasnt busy fighting against the singletrack media elite and writing lengthy articles about how to win on substack.
Whereas it is more the "they are a bit shit" would be followed by "but still a bit better than me" or maybe "christ. they are worse than me?"

Johnson and his team laughing at what the Italians were going through when it hit them? What utter c****. They are God damned sick sociopaths. I remember watching the news each night and feeling desperately sad for them and knowing a similar COVID wave would be coming our way very soon.

In other news...

Don't worry! If you were old when COVID hit you had nothing to fear... As long as you read the right news paper! Huzzah!!

According to these two rags, it's was Cummins being a bit sweary that was the real concern... Not your PM saying you should be 6 feet under to save the economy and be glad to help out.

"Die Out to Help Out" That's what I'm calling this policy.

... and they will still vote Tory. 😆

Not sure about all of those examples of "more male pursuits" from MacNamara.
Football yes.
Fishing maybe.
Shooting and hunting though?
Think thats more about a specific pressure group in the tories as opposed to men in general.

It takes some front for Boris Johnson to accuse someone else of an 'orgy of narcissism'

Pot kettle ****!

binners
Full Member
It takes some front for Boris Johnson to accuse someone else of an ‘orgy of narcissism’

Pot kettle ****!

I hope that makes the Italians news. I hope they remember that when he goes over there on holiday as he inevitably will at some point.

Is it the fly tipped sofa's turn tomorrow?

According to these two rags...

Nice to see they've got the poppy and the "we shall remember them" on the front page already.
If you die in a war, that's fine and we'll have a couple of minutes silence for you; if you die in a pandemic due to the incompetence of those in charge, well that's your own fault.

Has there ever been a group of people who’s ludicrously overinflated idea of their own abilities is so howlingly different from the reality that was so glaringly obvious to everyone around them.

Yes, they usually describe themselves as 'Risk Professionals'.

I work with them and have to listen to utter b011ocks every single day, but at least they aren't up for letting folk die left, right & centre.

I'm on the sound desk today and I've got Chris Witty here. What does STW want me to ask him 😂

I hope that makes the Italians news. I hope they remember that when he goes over there on holiday as he inevitably will at some point.

Funny you should say that, there was a snap of him* yesterday on a Ryanair flight to Italy.

*well, allegedly him

https://twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1720046153444610100?t=U50YI3gcMRd36iZdBbIDmw&s=19

I have to say, I do not have much sympathy for Matt Hancock, but the way that it is being reported about the decisions about hypothetically who should have lived and who should have died is being really unfair to him.

My understanding is that he said that if it came down to having to ration resources, then he felt the responsibility of that decision should (quite rightly IMO) lie with the minister and not clinicians.

It's being reported as "Matt Hancock wanted to decide who lives and who dies."

I do not like the man, but that actually strikes me as a rare example of an elected politician stepping up to take responsibility for something.

I think a lot of what is being reported does depend very much on context - my own first contribution to the Covid thread is cringingly awful now, looking back, but I would expect the government who have to make decisions having to have a conversation about "how many people would it cost us if we didn't have a lockdown", and who should decide the criteria for who is not going to be treated and left to die.

If they hadn't been having those sort of debates - which should be properly on the record, based on the best current scientific advice*, and not on disappearing WhatsApp posts - then they weren't doing their jobs properly. I'm not sure if Hancock wanted to play God or was trying to take the overall responsibility away from clinicians, but those are the kind of decisions any government may have to consider in times of crisis.

*Worth remembering that despite what we may want to happen, this enquiry is aimed at learning lessons so we are better prepared for the next pandemic.

Hancock was always going to be the fall guy for everything. Thats what Johnson appointed him, then kept him in place for and he was just too thick and egotistical to realise it

The bloke is an utter ****!

If you've not seen this, then its well worth a watch....

Jess Phillips tearing Hancock a new one about his incompetence and corruptly awarding PPE contracts to his mates

*Worth remembering that despite what we may want to happen, this enquiry is aimed at learning lessons so we are better prepared for the next pandemic.

According to those at the sharp end we had a really good plan in place and the resources for it were dissipated by the 2010 government in their first couple of years in charge.

Worth remembering too that scientific consensus was that it wasn't an airbourne disease until someone checked the assumptions and discovered that the WHO had been using unproven 'facts' from the 40's (see https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj-2022-069940.abstract ) Prof. Greenhalgh is worth a follow on social media for a similar level of detail to @TiRed

Don't forget...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/13/boris-johnson-scrapped-cabinet-pandemic-committee-six-months/

https://www.****/news/article-8416075/Boris-Johnson-scrapped-Cabinet-Ministers-pandemic-team-six-months-coronavirus-hit-Britain.html

I have zero sympathy for Hancock.  Whilst he is being scapgoated for sure he also has blood on his hands. 

Hancock consistently assured everyone that there was a plan in place to cope with the pandemic

There wasn’t.

He should be behind bars

Doubtless BJ will spew out even more porky pies about bravely shaking hands with Covid victims and being at death's door himself. It was reported that Kettering General Hospital had no CV patients when he visited and I read someone had done a detailed analysis of the treatment of a patient suffering severely and it was a million miles from his account. Now if there's anyone whom I would have liked to have seen come out feet first...