im not being shouty and abusive??
So calling me a CRETIN and a PENARSE was a constructive argument was it?
I have 2 coins one in each hand one is a head what's in my left hand?
Good example.
[i]Good example. [/i]
It's the simplest form to explain it but Bomberman's head must have exploded trying to prove 50/50.
Drac - 50:50 chance its a head. 50:50 chance you have a head and a tail.
I was out playing in the snow.
Smee's back! We might get to 500 posts 🙂
drac its either a head or a tail
[i]Drac - 50:50 chance its a head. 50:50 chance you have a head and a tail.[/i]
Read the question and you answer tell me what's wrong.
[i]drac its either a head or a tail [/i]
Correct but please show the odds of what is likely.
head/head 50%
head/tail 50%
[i]head/head 50%
head/tail 50%[/i]
How does that show what is in my left hand?
bomberman - you should probably read the other ten pages before you decide.
Thankfully i don't post on here much these days and didn't get involved in this. Not read past the first page but here is my take;
BB - Disc
BG
GB
GG
So, 2/3 of mixed pair.
Ambiguity lies in the question and how you obtain the information about the child, if the mother is selected for her having a girl (ie. met mother and daughter) then the answer (by logic) is 1/2. But that doesn't apply here, because that wasn't the question.
you showed whats in your left hand - it was a head (LMAO!)
Drac - it is a 50% chance that you will have a head in your left hand.
Following on from that there is a 50% chance that you will have a matching pair.
bomberman: Or tell me how YOU think the 100 families have after one child is born, and after two children.
[i]you showed whats in your left hand - it was a head (LMAO!) [/i]
So you can't explain it then.
you showed whats in your left hand - it was a head (LMAO!)
No he didn't. He just said [i]one[/i] was a girl.
[b]MTT: [/b]Ambiguity lies in the question and how you obtain the information about the child, if the mother is selected for her having a girl (ie. met mother and daughter) then the answer (by logic) is 1/2. But that doesn't apply here, because that wasn't the question.
Correct MTT.
[i]Drac - it is a 50% chance that you will have a head in your left hand.
Following on from that there is a 50% chance that you will have a matching pair. [/i]
No there's not all you know is there's one head, so it eliminates the T/T combination.
[strike]T/T[/strike]
H/H
T/H
H/T
Is the combinations you have left.
sorry my bad. it dosen't show what was in your left hand. is there a point to this? you'd better out it now before you forget.
you showed whats in your left hand - it was a head (LMAO!)
Drac's lack of punctuation is forgivable given that he is on nights, but it may be confusing you bomberman. He said [i]"I have 2 coins; one in each hand. One is a head. What's in my left hand?"[/i]
He didn't say which hand was holding the head.
My lack of punctuation in confusing at the best of times.
[i]sorry my bad. it dosen't show what was in your left hand. is there a point to this? you'd better out it now before you forget. [/i]
Read what I put above and treat L/R how many time does head appear in L column?
it's the question.
So what are the odds that she has a girl and a boy?
in your eyes would the answer be different if the question said "so what are the odds that she has a boy and a girl?"
in your eyes would the answer be different if the question said "so what are the odds that she has a boy and a girl?"
Nope, the answer would be the same. 66%
In other words, contents of left hand is 50/50 for Head or Tail, Content of right hand is also 50/50 for Head or Tail
Possible combinations are:
[code]LEFT -- RIGHT
Head -- Head
Head -- Tail
Tail -- Head
Tail -- Tail[/code]
If you know he definitely has a Head in one of his hands then you can eliminate Tail -- Tail - leaving three possible combinations, two of which have Heads in his Left hand. 2 out of 3 = 66%
Nice example Drac.
[i]Nice example Drac. [/i]
Thanks it makes it very simple though so some what kills the challenge.
[i]miketually - Member
Yes, but why would you ask her the original question?
So you can find out who the less intelligent people are.[/i]
What kind of smug coont makes a statement like that?
[i]What kind of smug coont makes a statement like that? [/i]
A clever coont.
Drac, I think you've got a coin in your left hand.
BTW I queried the boy/girl girl/boy thing on page one, I understood the reason I was wrong before the end of the page.
girl/boy and boy/girl are the same, regardless of the 100 families theory. the fact that 100 families spawn 50% mixed, 25% bb and 25% gg has nothing to do with it. there are still 3 options to choose from and when you take them into the context of the question the other 99 families have absolutely nothing to do with it.
and by the way i just flipped a coin and it came out 70/30 in favour of tails, even though the odds were 50/50 so that puts your 100 families theory right out the window. when the question says it's a 50/50 chance it means biologically speaking.
yes but we're not talking about holding each child in a particular left or righ hand! you are adding a left/right variable that simply dosent exist in the original question! if you can't understand this then i guess i'm the more intelligent one!
There is a 100% probability that a higher that average number of people involved in this thread have the memory of a gold fish and forget what they've just said.
Either that or there is one hell of an echo in here. 😀
So not 2 coins then?
[i]yes but we're not talking about holding each child in a particular left or righ hand! you are adding a left/right variable that simply dosent exist in the original question! if you can't understand this then i guess i'm the more intelligent one! [/i]
It does exist the combination is still there but some can't see that.
That and you were still convinced it was 50/50 for the coins.
read the question:
what are the odds that she has a girl and a boy?
not what are the chances that she has girl boy and not boy girl??
[i]not what are the chances that she has girl boy and not boy girl?? [/i]
Or indeed "What are the chances she boy girl and not girl boy?"
It does exist the combination is still there but some can't see that.
i must be one of the blind ones then drac, or maybe you're looking for something that simply isnt there. if i had been so smug from the start of this thread i'd be looking for a way out of admitting i was in the wrong too.
Thing was at the start you claimed it was 0.66 or 66%.
girl/boy and boy/girl are the same IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS QUESTION. the coins comparison does not work because it distinguishes between left and right which adds another variable. a variable which is not in any way aparrent in the OP.
Sadly they're not the same combination but never mind.
girl/boy and boy/girl are the same, regardless of the 100 families theory. the fact that 100 families spawn 50% mixed, 25% bb and 25% gg has nothing to do with it. there are still 3 options to choose from and when you take them into the context of the question the other 99 families have absolutely nothing to do with it.
Yes they do - because you don't know which family you are dealing with and the distribution of those families mean that you are twice as likely to be dealing with a family that has mixed children
Just like in the 4999 girls/1 boy question - the other 4999 matter because they are what gives you the odds.
and by the way i just flipped a coin and it came out 70/30 in favour of tails, even though the odds were 50/50 so that puts your 100 families theory right out the window. when the question says it's a 50/50 chance it means biologically speaking.
F..k me. That's just not the way statistics works. It is 50/50 on every flip - that doesn't mean it will come out exactly 50/50 (otherwise every time you tossed a tail you'd know the next one would be a head).
70/30 is pretty normal variance for such a small sample size - flip it a million times and it will come out a bit closer to 50/50.
"Biologically speaking" the odds aren't actually 50/50 and many other factors effect the outcome.
Thing was at the start you claimed it was 0.66 or 66%.
yes because i was sure that the chances of it being a boy were higher as she had said she had a girl and i was thinking that that lowered the chances of it being a girl twice. I soon saw sense though
mixed
GG
BB (eliminated)
when you look at it like that it's really quite simple
It is 50/50 on every flip - that doesn't mean it will come out exactly 50/50
so why are you using the 100 families theory then?
[i]when you look at it like that it's really quite simple [/i]
But wrong.
The PROBABILITY can be calculated exactly - even if small samples suggest it is something else.
If you throw a Head four times in a row, it doesn't change the probability - the next throw is still just as likely to come up heads or tails - anything else is the [url= http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy ]Gambler's Fallacy[/url].
The 100 families example perfectly follows the exact probabilities because it makes it easier to calculate. I could have given you an example with 18.7 billion families where 9.238 billion have mixed, 4.616 billion have two boy s and so on, but I didn't think it would help. 🙂
Turn it into percentages from the start if you like: 100% of the families have no children. They spawn. Now 50% have a girl and 50% have a boy.
The ones with one girl spawn, (25% 2Girls, 25% Mixed) and the ones with one boy spawn (25% 2boys, 25% Mixed)
In total we now have:
25% of families have 2 Girls
25% of families have 2 Boys
50% of families have Mixed
Pick one random family and the likelihood of it having Mixed (50%) is twice that of it having 2 Girls (25%).
