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Hate to break it to you but the Scottish version got 50 seats.
Nope gratifyingly UKIP got their arses kicked north of the border.
(I know you meant the SNP, but I'm going to ignore that)
Well, isn't this all very interesting
SNP have a landslide 'locally', but with a Con majority, their voice in Westminster will not be what they had hoped.
Indeed, the major talk in the run up was about coalitions and who would get into bed with each other. This seems likely to be largely redundant. Yes Cameron won't have everything his own way and will likely need some support on some issues, but he doesn't need to go conceding cabinet places, etc.
PR? Yes it has benefits and drawbacks. Yes, UKIP would have got a significant representation in the house, but if that's what a good proportion of voters want... You can't have PR just to satisfy what you want. That's democracy, as hard as some results might be to stomach.
Can't see Clegg & Milliband lasting long, interesting times ahead.
Seeing as PR isn't on the horizon, it's probably time to look at constituency division as it's utterly bonkers now and I suspect this this directly affecting results. Some of the boundaries are utterly bizarre and defy logic.
Anyway, the people have had their say and that's that until the next election. Personally I really wanted our MP to lose his seat as I cannot abide him. Sadly just over 51% of my fellow voters disagree with me. Oh well, nowt I can do about that, so just gotta get on with it.
As seen on twop twips:
[i]ENJOY a fabulous 3D 'Dickensian Britain' experience by simply looking out of your window.[/i]
Wonder when those billions of welfare cuts are going to be announced? If it is child benefit I expect a load of right-wing whining to start.
the tories might have been hoping coalition was a "get out of jail free card" on some of there pre election promises !
[quote=piedi di formaggio said]
Can't see Clegg & Milliband lasting long
lunchtime today ?
Well, isn't this all very interesting...
sure is, and the loss of so many political "heavyweights" combined with the influx of naive nationalists means that the tories will pretty much be the only party with any clout - narrow tory majority maybe, but more "in charge" than they must have dared think.
The future's blue, and I don't mean Braveheart facepaint 😆
I can't see PR being a reality any time soon.
There is now some interesting discussion of if or how the Cons accommodate the views of parties that have gained significantly higher shares of the vote than in the past; namely SNP and UKIP.
The popularity of SNP in Scotland is clear, but within the England and Wales, the weight of votes for UKIP has, to some degree, to be a bit of a shot across the bows of the Cons.
Moreover, the Cons may actually have benefited from the UKIP effect, if you think in terms of the choices for the voter being akin to the classic marketing study of beer:
UKIP being "Premium conservative".People were offered 2 kinds of beer: premium beer for $2.50 and bargain beer for $1.80. Around 80% chose the more expensive beer.Now a third beer was introduced, a super bargain beer for $1.60 in addition to the previous two. Now 80% bought the $1.80 beer and the rest $2.50 beer. Nobody bought the cheapest option...
Remember that the SNP have been in government in Scotland for 8 years. They know what they're doing.
Personally I don't see how the union can survive with a tory majority and an SNP Scotland.
The popularity of SNP in Scotland is clear, but within the England and Wales, the weight of votes for UKIP has, to some degree, to be a bit of a shot across the bows of the Cons.
Labour voters switching to ukip is hardly anything for the tories to worry about.
Personally I don't see how the union can survive with a tory majority and an SNP Scotland.
Especially if the reaction is to blame Scotland for voting the wrong way and scaring people in England.
Cameron to preside over the break up of the UK?
Sadly it's the only way you could square these results.
Using a Tory majority to govern a 95% SNP Scotland is going to cause ongoing and growing resentment and general nastiness.
Hopefully Cameron is cleverer than I think but I doubt it.
At least a Tory majority means no DUP / UKIP coalition - the stuff of nightmares.
"just call me Dave" 😉
Cameron to preside over the break up of the UK?
How's that going to happen then? Are we back in the fantasy land of unilateral declarations of independence?
I'm sure we are going to see a very rapid end to the west Lothian question mind 🙂
I just feel genuinely sorry for the Lib Dems. Probably the one thing that kept the Conservatives honest for the last five years and now wiped out because they got the rep for the bad stuff.
[quote=igm said]Cameron to preside over the break up of the UK?
Sadly it's the only way you could square these results.
Using a Tory majority to govern a 95% SNP Scotland is going to cause ongoing and growing resentment and general nastiness.
Hopefully Cameron is cleverer than I think but I doubt it.
Even if one of the first things he does is initiate the devolution of more powers to Scotland a la devo max ?
He's going to have to impose a Tory will on a country where 95% of the constituencies voted SNP. It's going to be seen as colonialism; a foreign power imposing its will unilaterally - don't think constitutional reality has anything to do with this. It's going to be hellish for everyone.
Should have voted for independence then 😆
Truly depressing how popular UKIP are south of the border - second most popular party in Wales
Got a link to the wales figures ??
Especially if the reaction is to blame Scotland for voting the wrong way and scaring people in England.
Unfortunately I think there may well be some truth in that actually being what happened
The support and rise of the SNP is what probably gave the tories a win.....strange world politics
The people have spoken the Bastards
17 Pages?!? Can someone do me a TL;DR? 😉
RM.
Personally I don't see how the union can survive with a tory majority and an SNP Scotland.
It's not a massive difference to the state of affairs during the last referendum, and we know how the people voted on that one.
I suppose it depends on how emboldened the now unchecked tories are and what they try to do.
I suspect Dave will go down a federal route as it is likely the only way to save the Union and he must also realise that a federalise England [ which is the powerhouse] is conservative[ note small c] in nature.
He loves the union and I suppose this issue is how far he can be pushed to "save" it
[quote=igm opined]He's going to have to impose a Tory will on a country where 95% of the constituencies voted SNP. It's going to be seen as colonialism; a foreign power imposing its will unilaterally - don't think constitutional reality has anything to do with this. It's going to be hellish for everyone.
Its pretty hard to see how they can claim legitimacy to govern over Scotland tbh
ninfan - Member
Should have voted for independence then
Didn't know there was an independence vote in Yorkshire. Of course if there is I could speculate on the result... 😉
Should have voted for independence then
Exactly. Scotland had a vote and made their choice. Democracy in action. You can't please all the people all of the time.
well even with the snp seats labour is still <300 (so far), or do you reckon a potential labour/SNP coalition pushed more people to vote tory.Unfortunately I think there may well be some truth in that actually being what happened
Its pretty hard to see how they can claim legitimacy to govern over Scotland tbh
Yet many would have said that it would have been fair for the SNP (with less votes than UKIP) to have had a loud voice in westminster and a say in english matters (where they also have zero seats)
the tories might have been hoping coalition was a "get out of jail free card" on some of there pre election promises !
This. In particular there is now no escape from the EU referendum that was so prominently promised. That will be a lot of laughs.
Donk - did you see the Tory pick pocket posters? Borderline racism
Wrecker - don't confuse actual legitimacy and the perception of legitimacy. The Tories won the elections to the UK Parliament this they are legitimate, just as in another world a Labour/SNP coalition would have been legitimate. The perception of the governed on the other hand...
Ironically the tories will look less unified under a majority than in coalition as the old wounds will resurface. At least with the Lib dems Dave could just say I cannot they wont let me now he has to actually deal with what Major called the "bastards"
Also worth noting that MPS rebel more when the majority is small as they have increased power.
It certainly wont be easy for him
Yet many would have said that it would have been fair for the SNP (with less votes than UKIP) to have had a loud voice in westminster and a say in english matters (where they also have zero seats)
A say yes a loud voice yes but rule England NO. Big difference
They dont have any legitimacy in Scotland its not even debatable at least with the SNP you could argue it [ there were string arguments on bith sides to be fair]. The T
Balls out
Called it 5 hours ago, you snooze you lose
[img] 
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[url= 
]this one igm[/url]? I hadn't no.
Ironically the tories will look less unified under a majority than in coalition as the old wounds will resurface. At least with the Lib dems Dave could just say I cannot they wont let me now he has to actually deal with what Major called the "bastards"
Also worth noting that MPS rebel more when the majority is small as they have increased power.
It certainly wont be easy for him
Yet many would have said that it would have been fair for the SNP (with less votes than UKIP) to have had a loud voice in westminster and a say in english matters (where they also have zero seats)
A say yes a loud voice yes but rule England NO. Big difference as you well know.
They dont have any legitimacy in Scotland its not even debatable at least with the SNP you could argue it [ there were strong arguments on both sides to be fair]. No argument* can really be put forward to say the Tories have any sort of mandate in Scotland
* its STW I am sure ninfan can concoct something but I mean convincing
so who be the next Labour leader?
[img] 
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Are we ready? I think it'd be an interesting prospect and I'd like to know more about this fella.
so who be the next Labour leader?
Not him if they want to get elected, a privately educated city-boy lawyer?
Regarding Scotland, the SNP only got 50% of the vote which reflects the referendum result.
BBC reporting Miliband to step down.
It wont be Theo walcott
A say yes a loud voice yes but rule England NO. Big difference
Semantics though? They'd have had the power to cast a deciding vote on laws and bills in england which is exactly what the tories now have in scotland.
They dont have any legitimacy in Scotland its not even debatable at least with the SNP you could argue it
Regardless of what colour tie they wear, the UK govt is the UK govt and scotland is a part of the UK. Like it or not, scotland will ultimately be governed by the tories. That was the entire point of the referendum was it not?
Wonder what's happening right now to all those "Liberal Democrats - Winning Here" signs right now. 😕
Prepare for the backlash Scotland
They dont have any legitimacy in Scotland its not even debatable at least with the SNP you could argue it [ there were strong arguments on both sides to be fair]. No argument* can really be put forward to say the Tories have any sort of mandate in Scotland
Apart from the fact that this is the government of the United Kingdom of which Scotland is part of, and chose to remain part of last year.
Scotland already have more powers than any other separate part of the UK.
Ed has nicely poisoned the Miliband well for his brother. Don't know if the Blair legacy would have tainted David, but I'm pretty sure he'd have done a damn sight better than that.
Think we'll perhaps see a relative unknown a la Blair come to the fore over the next couple of years.
Not him if they want to get elected, a privately educated city-boy lawyer?
So Blair wasn't?
Well the exit was fairly accurate I've got my P45 and Britain has lost one of its most progressive MPs
hora - Member
so who be the next Labour leader?
Yes - he's an ambitious and slippery operator, believer in the Free Money Tree.
He'll fail as well.
only? [b]Only[/b]? Con currently showing as 36%.Regarding Scotland, the SNP only got 50% of the vote
IANApolitics pundit but a single party getting 50%* of the vote sounds a pretty big deal.
*I'm assuming your quoted 50% is accurate, haven't looked
Ed has nicely poisoned the Miliband well for his brother.
He's not an MP though… so would this be some unexpected left-field ninja power swoop?
Must be freezing at Scottish Labour HQ this morning I just read it was -40
camo - if its anything like the vandalism of the 'yes' campaign, they'll be blighting the landscape for a while yet.
Think we'll perhaps see a relative unknown a la Blair come to the fore over the next couple of years.
It'll be interesting to see if their rhetoric moved back to the centre to make them electable again or whether they'll continue the suicidal shift further left.
Tories in very strong position, they can overturn the Fixed Term Parliament Act with a simple majority, they can make boundary changes (although much of Labour benefit was in Scotland so it is SNP benefit now). Voting system isn't the problem for the Left, its the voters
The Left need to stop agreeing with each other on social media and actually try and persuade people who don't vote for them to vote their way.
Anyway - will the BBC show live footage of Paddy Ashdown eating his hat!?
Semantics though?
No there is more then a semantic difference to have a voice and ruling. If you are just going to do this lets not bother with a "discussion"
Even you note it would be a "deciding" vote where as the TOries will just decide
These ar enot the same thing as your answer demonstrates
Indeed the Union is the Union [ ie they can do it] but I will be surprised if even he tries to steamroller things. It does not strike me as the best way to save the union is to ignore the will of the people when your message is "better together". It will only serve to pour fire on the demands for independence IMHO.
As noted above its not whether he can do it it is whether the people [ of Scotland] recognise his right to do it. I think its a hard ask for pretty obvious electoral reasons.
He may do it just to kill Labour off there though as the Tories have been dead there for a generation but again I dont see how this will help them sell the union as a "better together".
The Left need to stop agreeing with each on social media and actually try and persuade people who don't vote for them to vote their way
Bloody good point!
He's not an MP though… so would this be some unexpected left-field ninja power swoop?
I suppose if he had major backing, then he could get in via a bye-election, but his decision to quit Parliament earlier would have been based on the fact that, win or lose, Ed's leadership kills any chance of him getting a shot.
will the BBC show live footage of Paddy Ashdown eating his hat!?
The poll wasn't actually right though was it?
"It'll be interesting to see if their rhetoric moved back to the centre to make them electable again or whether they'll continue the suicidal shift further left."
WHAT?! 'Labour' now are further to the right than Thatcher was. This was the reason IMO they fell so far short: People wanted an alternative, not more of the same under a different brand.
Let the bloodletting begin.
Long knives at the ready...
The Left need to stop agreeing with each on social media and actually try and persuade people who don't vote for them to vote their way.
IMO the left are too vitriolic in their opinions - for weeks now my Facebook feed has been filled with hatred from left wing supporters.
The poll wasn't actually right though was it?
What - the exit poll that's proved to pretty much spot-on?
He's not an MP though… so would this be some unexpected left-field ninja power swoop?
Whats the competition like?
WHAT?! 'Labour' now are further to the right than Thatcher was. This was the reason IMO they fell so far short: People wanted an alternative, not more of the same under a different brand.
Labour analyst on the beeb said that the reflexive reaction to defeat by Labour is to claim that they weren't far enough to the left, and that the media were to blame, when in fact the opposite is true in electoral terms.
[i]Personally I don't see how the union can survive with a tory majority and an SNP Scotland.[/i]
I agree. When you saw how vehement the protests were against the 'red tories', it will be far worse for CMD and his chums to even get over the border.
No, as someone alluded to earlier, I think it will be the English that will persuade our rulers that another independence vote is in [u]everyone's[/u] favour.
I think the SNP should regard the result as a de facto vote for independence and push ahead regardless.
well done to Ed - he said he'd rather see Cameron back in Downing St than form an alliance with the SNP and that's what he got.
[quote=aracer ]
seosamh77  » Exit Poll:
Tory 316
labour 238
SNP 58
Liberal 10
UKIP 2
Green 2
I reckon that's aways out.
Yep, typically exit polls underestimate Tory results
You heard it here first 8)
[i]Labour analyst on the beeb said that the reflexive reaction to defeat by Labour is to claim that they weren't far enough to the left, and that the media were to blame, when in fact the opposite is true in electoral terms.[/i]
I believe it has been the 'meeja' that have distorted the whole picture all the way through the campaign. Talking up no hopers, talking down CMD, whilst all along the result was pretty much what I expected. Sensible people were NOT going to vote for the two [s]jokers[/s] Ed's....period!
Dan Jarvis
'gave his campaign the codename 'Operation Honey Badger'
At least as a former serviceman he has some experience of life outside politics, though.
^ +1
Hence my bet on March 14th for Cons Majority.
Lots of left wing mutual backslapping and talking to themselves does not mean that the electorate are going with them.
the thing is the SNP MP's were elected to have power in Parliament over the UK. But the Tories will remove their right to vote in affairs over the whole of the UK. Doesn't seem right or fair to me.
Labour vote share goes up by more than Tories but power reduces its all bloody odd.
I'm still in shock my green team didn't win!!
Seeing as PR isn't on the horizon,
..no, seen as the only party who ever think it would be a good idea are the losers. FPTP got the winners in, so they're never going to be in a hurry to change
D0NK - Member
only? Only? Con currently showing as 36%.
IANApolitics pundit but a single party getting 50%* of the vote sounds a pretty big deal.
*I'm assuming your quoted 50% is accurate, haven't looked
Relative to the 95% of seats they won.
Looking at the BBC this morning and Cons had 323 seats, now its been dropped to 319 seats and the Labs have had their seats also adjusted. Are the BBC trying to predict.....
@hora, I think he's a very able man and a strong candidate but that probably means Labour won't chose him. As the paper's said today the country might have voted for David but the Unions wanted Ed.
Opinion polls need to be investigated and regulated. IMO they are biased to predicting close results as that means more polls get commissioned. We had more than one poll every day, ridiculous.
SNPs rise in Scotland has definitely hurt Labour nationally IMO, I have no doubt there was tactical voting against Labour in the UK as a result of fear of an SNP coalition.The TV debate reaffirmed people's concern that Miliband would be a hostage to the SNP (I'll make you PM - makes Miliband look weak). The Conservatives have a majority such that there is no need whatsoever to grant additional powers to Holyrood. The SNP has isolated itself by saying no deal with the Conservatives and making the public statements they would do all they could to prevent a Conservative government. Democracy has spoken and it's voted for a Conservative government. There has been an independence referendum, the vote was no. There is nothing the SNP can do aside from make a lot of noise. It's my view there will be no move towards Federalism.
Whilst UKIP won't have many MPs they have been second in many Northern Labour constituencies and will take a share of the overall vote which will eclipse both the Lib Dems and indeed they will have more vote cast for them than have the SNP
[quote=Swelper said]Looking at the BBC this morning and Cons had 323 seats, now its been dropped to 319 seats and the Labs have had their seats also adjusted. Are the BBC trying to predict.....
Cons have 320 already with 15 left to declare, not seen the numbers fluctuate.
the thing is the SNP MP's were elected to have power in Parliament over the UK. But the Tories will remove their right to vote in affairs over the whole of the UK. Doesn't seem right or fair to me.
Labour vote share goes up by more than Tories but power reduces its all bloody odd.
No, the SNP won't be able to vote on English only laws. All national issues over the whole of the UK, like Trident, they can vote on. This makes perfect sense, any issue which Holyrood controls the SNP at Westminster should not be able to vote on.
Looking at the BBC this morning and Cons had 323 seats, now its been dropped to 319 seats and the Labs have had their seats also adjusted. Are the BBC trying to predict.....
First figure was a prediction, second current reality. The prediction is up to 328 now I think.
328 is the prediction I have seen, if you look at the map of the undeclared seats many are very safe Tory seats.
You only really need 323 for a majority as Sinn Fein don't attend Westminster
IMO the left are too vitriolic in their opinions - for weeks now my Facebook feed has been filled with hatred from left wing supporters.
It is always noticeable on here. Less so in the official party statements. You will keep core supporters through that type of rhetoric but you won't win over any half sensible floating voters. For that you need intelligent argument and logic (or a leader who can eat a bacon sandwich).
Be an interesting few years. We will have a Tory leadership contest to look forward to before 2020 as well. I assume Cameron won't want to lead his party into the next election knowing he will resign shortly afterwards. Also it will need to be in enough time before the election to allow the new leader to settle and so that all the backstabbing and negative campaigning that goes on during the leadership contest doesn't negatively impact on their chances in the election.
If Milliband goes, I hope we do get a leader of the opposition with some gravitas who can hold the government to account.