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Also unlike LPG and Petrol it’s so much lighter than air a leak dissipates really quickly.
A hydrogen leak dissipating really quickly earlier... 🙂
Some petrol/oil dissipating earlier
Waaaay OT, but:
Best "subject" line in a work related email:
"Re replacement of hydrogen torpedoes"
I wouldn't write off Tesla yet.
1. The Model 3 has ~30k parts as opposed to 60-70k for a similar ICE car. If they can crack the manufacturing process that'll have a massive impact on cost.
2. They don't have the baggage of the old manufacturers (investment in ICE, Dealer networks, unions and outdated business processes)
3. There are probably plenty of Silicon Valley fans/investors who will help Musk out if it comes to it.
I have literally just walked in from a lecture from Thatcham the guys that do all the car safety research (i work for large insurers).
In the engineers word "if i had £80,000 to spend on a car, it certainly wouldn't be a Tesla, their shite"
They had a Tesla, a new BMW 7 series and the latest Volvo XC90 all that had been involved in accidents showing the construction of the vehicles, the safety features and how each had been involved in the same accident 30mph into a deformable object to the front offside corner. On the results, i'd be placing my wife and daughter every time in the Volvo. They haven't not had a single fatality in a Volvo XC90 since the latest model came in 2012 worldwide.
Looked at the Tesla and where the BMW and Volvo had carbon fibre and the highest strength steel safety cells around the driver, the Tesla was just nearly all aluminium.
It was fitted with the autonomous system that allows the driver to not steer or do anything for up to 20 seconds, he explained how it does this by reading the lane markings, but that put simply it didn't work, they were driving to Norwich in one the other day and one of the roads had the chippings put down, so lane markings were gone, the car just started drifting to the left and wanted to go off road, he corrected it, and it then wanted to drive straight over a roundabout!
On the plus side, he said that all the electrics are done by Apple, in the latest Apple update, the car downloaded a "ludicrous" mode, which meant 0-60 was 2.3 instead of 3.00 seconds.
3. There are probably plenty of Silicon Valley fans/investors who will help Musk out if it comes to it.
He'd have no problem raising more money, so I don't see what the fuss is all about really. It's just an ego thing between Musk and Wall Street over whether he needs to raise more cash.
and its arguably easier to repurpose Petrol stations as Hydrogen stations than it is to build charging stations.
It really isn't
Pretty much all the infrastructure at a petrol station would be pretty much useless for storing and transporting hydrogen.
The petrol station would already have an electricity supply, though...
For cars hydrogen is going nowhere; it's just so inefficient to produce and transport that if we can produce enough clean energy to make it without using oil we'd be better off just sticking that energy directly in batteries instead.
How come no one has mentioned the new car that DYSON is creating?
I have no idea why some people seem to act as if EVs are a personal insult; they do come up with a lot of rubbish about Tesla and electric vehicles in general. Like this:
On the plus side, he said that all the electrics are done by Apple
No they aren't
he explained how it does this by reading the lane markings, but that put simply it didn’t work
Tesla's Autopilot has now racked up a total of 1.2 billion miles; it is intended - and they clearly say this - for highways and most definitely not roundabouts at this point.
why the hell they’ve cancelled Swansea bay I don’t know
the price/kW, the numbers on the construction that don't add up, and the guy in charge is a complete shyster, but apart from that.. :thumbsup:
On the plus side, he said that all the electrics are done by Apple, in the latest Apple update, the car downloaded a “ludicrous” mode, which meant 0-60 was 2.3 instead of 3.00 seconds.
apple 'doing' tesla's electronics? hmm.....
for highways and most definitely not roundabouts at this point.
Well some highways. Just not those with stopped emergency vehicles or a sliproad which confuses its self driving capability. On the plus side if it does crash you will get the fun of Tesla attacking you and trying to pass the blame.
Tesla’s Autopilot has now racked up a total of 1.2 billion miles
if you are going to accuse people of being inaccurate probably best you dont join them. That was an estimate. Its also unclear exactly what that means eg its not the same as Alphabets clear definition of what their vehicles are doing.
How come no one has mentioned the new car that DYSON is creating?
It sucks...
IGMC
and the guy in charge is a complete shyster, but apart from that.
Its not something I have followed closely but the reports in Private Eye really werent trust inspiring.
That was an estimate
It was an estimate by an AI research team at MIT; I imagine it's not going to be very far off, and as no-one knows any better - and as it has not been refuted by Tesla who do know - I see no reason to doubt it.
Tesla's Autopilot is nowhere near as clever as Waymo's FSD but they don't describe it as such so there is nothing dodgy going on there. It does not mean the driver can stop paying attention. Yes, it has issues like the white truck incident from a couple of years ago and the more recent sliproad-with-funny-lane-markings fatality, but in both those high profile cases the investigation concluded that the drivers had ample time to take over if they had been paying attention.
and as it has not been refuted by Tesla who do know – I see no reason to doubt it.
You cant see any reason why Tesla wouldnt deny it? A nice handy high figure generated by someone else, so they dont have to do their normal games with stats, that people will then throw out in support of Tesla.
Nah I cant think of any reason either.
but in both those high profile cases the investigation concluded that the drivers had ample time to take over if they had been paying attention.
Which as anyone with a basic understanding of human psychology would know is a rather big "if". Particularly if the person hadnt read the small print or hadnt realised the latest patch had altered the behaviour. There is a reason the more serious companies chose to do the leapfrog of self driving levels.
Tesla advertising is rather disingenuous with regards to what "auto-pilot" can and cant do.
and the guy in charge is a complete shyster
So a bit like Circuit of Wales then? We gave £9m to a bunch of con artists (and thankfully stopped before we gave them another £16m) just to develop the plan to build a £425m Motorsport facility in Ebbw Vale.
Their business plan called for it to be part-financed by hosting MotoGP for 5 years I think, but it was finally shot down (they'd canned it a few times before, but kept coming back for more development money) because someone worked out it was 'risky' to guarantee £200m to £300m towards the cost...
Risky?
Let's put it into perspective, I believe it was NEVER going to cost £425m in real money. no they were going to fleece it for all it was worth and the money the Welsh Gov guaranteed would be more than the actual cost of the venue.
Secondly, the value - £425m and largely funded by a weekend of MotoGP racing? Yeah right, Silverstone (a sort of famous racing faculty, in the heart of 'Motorsport Valley' home to at least a few teams from every motorsport series in the world, which currently has both MotoGP and the F1, failed to find a buyer for £33m.
You cant see any reason why Tesla wouldnt deny it?
Fair point! The first bit of my point - that it came out of MIT - was the important bit, I don't know why I didn't just stop there...
Which as anyone with a basic understanding of human psychology would know is a rather big “if”
Absolutely, but the majority of people using it have found it a useful addition and despite several high profile events and an enormous amount of public attention they are still allowed to sell it and advertise it in multiple regulatory areas around the world, so I really don't think it's anywhere near as big an issue as it's made out to be.
that it came out of MIT
Which doesnt prevent it being a guess. I would say it would have been more meaningful if it had come from Tesla but given their relaxed approach to accuracy its probably not any better.
so I really don’t think it’s anywhere near as big an issue as it’s made out to be.
That doesnt show much beyond some good lawyers and careful wording (its fascinating looking at the autopilot hype page vs other info). Most other car companies with similar tech are far more careful about what they say their systems can do. Of course that does mean they are seen as boring out of date companies who dont have the cutting edge tech of Tesla.
They had a Tesla, a new BMW 7 series and the latest Volvo XC90 all that had been involved in accidents showing the construction of the vehicles, the safety features and how each had been involved in the same accident 30mph into a deformable object to the front offside corner. On the results, i’d be placing my wife and daughter every time in the Volvo. They haven’t not had a single fatality in a Volvo XC90 since the latest model came in 2012 worldwide.
Tesla use a comparison with the Volvo S60 to show how tough the Model 3 is....
Although not so good on the small overlap frontal test
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-s-crash-test-safety-iihs/
Why is Norman Collier presenting the Tesla 3?
This is interesting as I listened to some economists on R4 talking recently who described car finance as the next sub prime mortgage crash. Lots of people over financed in a poorly regulated industry, the risk level is through the roof.
I don't think this is true. I work in the car financing industry and it is heavily regulated. We are also very strict over who we lend to with a minimal amount of defaults. This may not be true for the whole industry, but most Manufacturer lead finance these days are pretty stringent. Whilst I am sure there are a lot of people getting vehicles that they simply cannot afford these are usually new vehicles that will have a fairly static residual and you always have the option to voluntary terminate the agreement once over a certain milestone.
The risk here is minimal compared with the ability of some to apply for five credit cards and rack up a credit card debt of £60K. At least with vehicle finance you have an asset.
The main risk is if the second hand market collapses the finance companies will have to absorb the hit on the resale values of all the cars when the owners finish the contract period....
I think Tesla need to be recognised for really bringing forward EV's to the mainstream mindshare aspect of the public. Would I buy one ? nope.
I think the other mainstream car makers have used Tesla as a free test bench on public opinion on what they want out of an EV ( and what's achievable) and are only now getting into it using that learning. To the masses, though, the EV is still extremely expensive to buy into compared to a combustion engine vehicle.
Will Tesla go down the pan? I think it'll hang on for a bit yet … but once mainstream makers bring out their stuff, Tesla are really going to struggle.
That Hyundai Kona EV up there looks very impressive. Up to 300 mile range & <£30k.
I'm starting to think that by the time it comes to replace my current car, it'll be with an EV; longest journey we generally do is ~200 miles and we'd probably keep an ICE car for a while yet anyway.
That Hyundai Kona EV up there looks very impressive. Up to 300 mile range & <£30k.
I’m starting to think that by the time it comes to replace my current car, it’ll be with an EV; longest journey we generally do is ~200 miles and we’d probably keep an ICE car for a while yet anyway.
I've been thinking the same, I'd want to hear how 'real world' that 300 miles is though. I tried to make a Leaf work for me 4 years ago - 110 mile range at the time (I think) but 'real world' at motorway speeds, when it wasn't warm and involving hills it was more like 70 and that wouldn't work for me.
300 miles would be a game changer though, admittedly I'm mentally saddling up for the annual 800 mile drive to Morzine next week, but the savings for EVs mean I'd happily fly/drive or hire a car for that one trip, but even if I didn't want to - 300 miles at 70 takes over 4 hours, even if you ignore the 2 hour break thing, in theory I'd be 'empty' just about as you're getting to the port - if the Ferry / Tunnel people had charging points to use whilst you hang around for that hour they want you to you'd be early I'd need another charge about lunch time, all very civilised - but that does require the 300 mile range to be a 300 mile range when you're loaded up and driving up mountains at motorway speeds, I'd bet the range then would be 200 at most.
The main risk is if the second hand market collapses the finance companies will have to absorb the hit on the resale values of all the cars when the owners finish the contract period….
There has been a lot of talk on this but not sure how likely it is. Fairly balanced view in the Independent (with added car ads 🤔):
I'd want a claimed range of ~400 miles that would match a tank of fuel in my Fabia before I jumped from IC cars. That would mean a real life of at least 300 miles from full and a fast charge to 80% would get you 250 miles or so, making longer journeys perfectly reasonable with regards to regular stops etc. The big issue for me is still charging as I can't have a charge point at home (rented flat, nowhere to put one) and don't take the car to work where there is also nowhere to put a charging point in.
What scud said makes me even less likely to choose a Tesla now. It reminds me of the Mercedes A-Class Elk Test where they were building their first FWD car and had gone all radical on the design, Turned out it fell over despite the glowing test review initially. Tesla seems to walking the same path, once the hype has worn off the issues are becoming visible.
The problem with hydrogen is that it is incredibly dangerous.
It has a horrible tendency to go bang. Makes petrol look almost inert in comparison.
Completely unlike batteries? At least a hydrogen tank is only half of a rocket - you need oxygen too. You've got all the chemicals you need for a large release of energy in a battery. (and in both cases the answer is crashworthiness, the difference being that you need to protect a tiny amount of hydrogen or a huge amount of battery)
An article on Tesla’s cash flow & debt position:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/07/teslas-cash-crunch-explained/
Summary - not great, but wait for Q2 results next week.
In the report (via KTVU), the fire department said that they monitored the battery pack and it reignited days after the March 23 accident.
Mountain View Fire Chief Juan Diaz commented:
“In this particular case, six days later, the temperature inside those cells increased to the point of ignition. That’s why the car reignited. You have stored energy that is frankly unstable.”
The joys of your car now starting to reignite days after the fire brigade put it out...
Firefighters arrived at the scene to find the Model S engulfed in flames. They extinguished it using as much as 300 gallons of water and foam. A small portion of the vehicle’s lithium-ion battery was ejected during the crash, and although there was no visible fire, firefighters sprayed it with water and foam as well.
As the car was being loaded for removal from the scene, the battery reignited and was quickly extinguished. Upon arrival at the storage yard, the battery caught fire again and was again put out. NTSB officials have not given a reason for the battery fires.
You’ve got all the chemicals you need for a large release of energy in a battery.
No where near as volatile, the worse case Li-ion car battery fires have been pretty tame events. 1000s of cells all each in steel containers, with lots of steel cladding around them makes for a slow, fairly controlled release of energy.
There are some good videos on YouTube of people trying to destroy Tesla car batteries and failing quite miserably....
Only pretty tame if it's not mixing with, say, petrol frm the other car in the crash?
Only pretty tame if it’s not mixing with, say, petrol frm the other car in the crash?
It's not suddenly going to explode, no. The biggest risk would be from the petrol on fire itself (although petrol tanks are pretty good these days and don't often rupture).
If you look at the design of the Tesla car battery, there is a lot of steel sheeting in there to keep it rigid, as it effectively is the floor pan of the car. The cells are pretty well protected and the energy is split up into 1000s of individual units, each with it's own steel case.
There are over 300k Teslas and 1000s of other electric cars on the road and no exploding batteries. A handful of small fires that no one got very excited about (other than the occupants of course), but it's not as if petrol cars don't occasionally catch fire...
No where near as volatile
Volatility is only relevant for combustible materials. The battery doesn't need air so doesn't need to be volatile.
After a bad crash, the battery will be in pieces and pose a danger, as illustrated by the self-reigniting bits of battery above. All the water is doing is cooling things down, it's not stopping the energy release as it might on a normal fire.
Consider the consequences of a large pile-up or a crash in a remote location where firefighters can't put as much effort into one car.
Sure, it being lots of small batteries makes it less bad, but having so much mass of a material storing energy seems a bad idea in principle which maybe can be mitigated adequately - but doesn't seem to be for now.
At the moment EV cars are a novelty. Currently there is not enough infrastructure to support large numbers and the user is effectively subsidised.
for me there is no charging point at work or at home and as I regularly do journeys of more than 300miles the range is too low. For me to be interested full charge range of 500 miles but a 15min fast charge for 300 would be acceptable. Cost for a 500mile journey in “fuel” would need to be below £25 for comparison.
The cost of the vehicle and lack of service support is also a massive risk. I can get almost any part for my car overnight and installed the next day. Once Ford or the like have a car and considering they can use all Tesla IP for free it should not be too long they have a massive advantage.
As for fires the electric car Richard Hammond crashed caught fire again after it was put out. So for sure there will be some safety concerns to be address as there are always unknowns with a new system. All it will take is one bad batch of batteries and the roads are clear of drivers for a bit...
The EV wave is coming. There is alot of EV infrastructure going in near where I am..oK there was sweet FA before, but there are signs it's happening. two years ago my local council was dishing out free EV home charging points, so I've got one in my garage. It takes time but in a couple of years time there will be alot more. It's probably more convenient for an EV driver to find a charging point than someone running their car on LPG finding a garage with LPG.
My wife is looking to change her car and I'm definitely trying to push her towards an EV or at least a Hybrid...She's not that keen but its a work in progress.
Ultimately we're the consumers and we have to make that leap and go for it and as soon as the demand starts to rise then the infrastructure will appear almost overnight. We need to take back control as consumers and stop writing for governments to wipe our backsides for us.
As for fires the electric car Richard Hammond crashed caught fire again after it was put out.
Yes, that thing smouldered for days after the crash as each cell overloaded and went up one by one as they couldn't fully isolate the battery pack. It's immature technology...just as cars were for decades as people were transitioning from horse and cart to horseless carriages. We can't wait for the technology to fully mature...it will take decades.
On the way out - it doesn't look like it as yet
There may also be concern about how the technology ages. With an ICE car, if you maintain it (and are lucky, unlike some people on here), then the parts on there should last for years and the vehicle will carry on rolling at about the same level of performance.
With pure EV cars, I can't see that being the case. Take a mobile phone... After three years of normal use, the talk and standby time is, what, half its initial one? Is there data on long term use of EV cars to show how well they retain the capacity to travel, or are the early adopters all running three year leases so that the problem belongs to the next in line?
How many here would consider buying a 30k mile three/four year old EV, knowing that the battery tech is both built in to the chassis and likely to be previous generation?
Take a mobile phone… After three years of normal use, the talk and standby time is, what, half its initial one? Is there data on long term use of EV cars to show how well they retain the capacity to travel
There are teslas in the US with 200k miles with average battery degragation of 6% ICE cars would be in the scrapheap by then
I'm certainly in the camp of I'd only lease an EV car at the moment. Not sure I'd entirely trust battery degradation figures reported by the Tesla itself either, or did they do real world distance comparisons in comparable conditions to arrive at that figure?
It's a huge shame that the EV charging points going in for cars won't work for e bikes
Nasher, I'd be interested in seeing the source for that. I know my Macbook battery has decent health still, but I don't think it is fair to say most ICE cars would be scrap if the test was lab based.
Not sure I’d entirely trust battery degradation figures reported by the Tesla itself either,
They're from users rather than Tesla itself.
The charging is very intelligent. Normal charge is only to 80%, which makes a huge difference to Li-ion cell life expectancy. You have to select Range mode to charge to 100% as doing so will degrade the cells slightly more and most of the time you don't need 100% range. This means they're getting exceptionally good battery ageing.
It’s probably more convenient for an EV driver to find a charging point than someone running their car on LPG finding a garage with LPG.
Not from my mate's experience running a car on LPG vs the Guardian article on running a Tesla from Brighton to Edinburgh it's not. Plus with LPG you can just chuck petrol in and have higher running costs in a pinch.