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There's often lots of rain here over winter; there's always a few spots get flooded. But the last two weeks or so has seen a massive amount of rain. Pretty much every day for the last two weeks, the A590 has been badly flooded, and that's flat, there are no fells next to it.
I just guess the ground can't hold anymore water, and last night/today was the straw that broke the camels back.
Pretty much DT I have done a fair amount of driving across the north west last week and prety much every are had fields that wer ejust flooded and ponds where there were none before. THis last bout has gone on to already waterlogged ground creating [s]the exceptional weather we are experiencing[/s] usual weather as our southern sage tells us
was what David meant and some mental pics on there
Tha'ts the one! My mates gf just posted a video of Grasmere 😯
My brother is a house away from flooding.:-(
According to the in laws ,who only talk about the weather,the last few weeks have been the wettest they've known .
Last time, 2009, it was me grandad (rip)who said that and then the bridges went.
The fields are unusually extra waterlogged,long night ahead .
Feeling slightly guilty here in north London listening to the middle classes twining about the "bitter" wind.ha.
Let's all have a bun fight about whether this is unusual or that's to blame.
I'm more glad than ever that I'm not in Workington......
Unreal!
I'm more glad than ever that I'm not in Workington......
Bastid! 🙂
Am supposed to stay at the Rosthwaite YHA over Xmas but reckon I should stay away, hope Xmas is salvageable for all the locals.
No, no, no - don't stay away. That's the worst of these events. Unless they tell you otherwise, still come. I'm glad I've not started Christmas shopping. Buy local, more now than ever. Hoping that Cockermouth shop reverbs last time were future flood proofed.
Unless they tell you otherwise, still come
Amen to that - ring up beforehand to check but still go, and spend as much money as you can while you are there.
Not my account, pictures of the situation in cockermouth 🙁 awful
Keswick Bikes will be drowned. River levels 3 miles upstream of Cockermouth falling fairly quickly now at least.
Aye 1 in 100 year event is a measure of magnitude not frequency..its a very unhelpful expression...its a shame some EA folk still use it. 1percent chance per year is better way of expressing same event.
I'm way removed from all this, but boxelder is right.
Having work at various floods as a claims handler, its a really awful thing to happen and my heart goes out to anyone affected
Your office upstairs anc?
"Not my account, pictures of the situation in cockermouth awful
To be more accurate in that post - the defences haven't failed, they've just been overtopped, which they are designed to do. The sheer amount of water they are managing to hold back is terrifying though - so although there is water coming over them it could be much much worse for those houses on the other side. I certainly would have legged it from those houses a while back!
The 2009 event was described as a once in 100years - except it's happened again.
So two major floods in 6 years sounds "not unusual" to me, that being my point.
Lakes full because rivers not being allowed to drain / run fully due to downstream developments etc ? Had lots of first hand experience of this living overlooking the river in Guildford and plenty of such stories around the Thames and Cherwell. @Moses I appreciate your point about Churches but what didn't flood 200 years ago can change with development which is your point too land vs building
Yeah boxelder.. nee fun working with dehumidifiers on downstairs though. Fingers crossed, it was the flow of water that got us last time as we're at the high end of south st.
Getting texts from a mate who lives down near Haweswater, he's stuck in a pub in Shap. Not sure where he'll be spending the night but the pub's floor is already wet...
I was there last Xmas when the fells were so waterlogged they could only get out via the water company service road, so this time it looks even worse...
Sympathy to anyone affected by this. Down here in London we haven't got a clue what proper weather's like...
Almost as though something global is affecting our climate.....
It's those fires in Indonesia that no-one seems worried about - they are chucking out unreal amounts of greenhouse gases - greenpeace are trying to highlight the issue and those responsible for letting it happen/continue.
I couldn't make our bi-annual trip last weekend to the mountaineering hut at low hall garth, little langdale.
They were saying that it was wet, but I think they got lucky with it being last weekend!
"Lakes full because rivers not being allowed to drain / run fully due to downstream developments etc ?"
Wrong. 313mm rainfall in 24hrs on already completely saturated ground and high water levels is going to cause flooding.
Stay down south please, it'd be far too scary for you up here.
Rainfall in 2009 Cumbria flood was highest amount of rainfall UK has had in a 24hr period since they started collecting proper tidy records. Early days yet but this feels like a worse event - 40 Severe Flood Warnings at the moment in Cumbria - only 9 or 10 in 2009.
From that I'd expect todays rain to be very close to or beat the 2009 rainfall record. - 2 rainfall amounts that big in 6 years.....statistically it could be random of course...bit it fits a pattern of warmer atmospheres holding more moisture so able to support more intense rainfall events.
[url= https://mobile.twitter.com/tombarter/status/673220901803028480 ]reverse waterfall on kinder scout[/url]
Wow 😯
High Coledale bridge gone in Braithwaite, near the 'narrows' at the foot of Whinlatter. 🙁
"Lakes full because rivers not being allowed to drain / run fully due to downstream developments etc ?"
All the recent massive developments around Keswick and Cockermouth - the massive housing estates, shopping malls etc have been a bit worrying from an environmental standpoint.
Have you ever actually been to the Lakes Jammers? It's a bit further north than Watford? 😉
No one can speculate this daftly without it being intentional so Jamby has just got to be trolling STW or you are Joey Essex.
My bike has just had to be rescued from the cellar due to the flood a few feet and rising.
Obviously this is very usual Cheers Jamby
River Levels today in Keswick running higher than 2009 -
[url= http://www.gaugemap.co.uk/#!Map/Summary/642/656 ]http://www.gaugemap.co.uk/#!Map/Summary/642/656[/url]
The latest pictures look waaaaay worse than 2009. Damage to property is clearly going to be immense! I just hope everyone is safe up there!
Soft Southern Shandy Drinking Lightweight sending some thoughts for all your safety and hope you all don't suffer too badly.
Thinking aboutcha's
😕
Sounds and looks like it's a bit windy and wet up there for you. Hoping that you're keeping safe warm and dry-ish.
It is said that there's no such thing as bad weather with the appropriate clothing. So who has got their dry suit and arm bands on? 😉
The girl on the radio whose 18th birthday party had to be cancelled confirmed that it was indeed 'way worse' than 2009.
The 2009 event was described as a once in 100years - except it's happened again.
Well that's statistics for you. Can't rely on it.
reverse waterfall on kinder scoutWow
Not at all uncommon. Get a bit of a breeze here and you get wet from the spray half a mile upstream.
Well that's statistics for you. Can't rely on it.
It's probability...
Doesn't change the fact it's a bit shit but:
A one-hundred-year flood is a flood event that has a 1% probability of occurring in any given year.
A common misunderstanding exists that a 100-year flood is likely to occur only once in a 100-year period. In fact, there is approximately a 63.4% chance of one or more 100-year floods occurring in any 100-year period.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100-year_flood
The 2009 event was described as a once in 100years - except it's happened again.
It doesn't mean a flood of this scale will only happen once every 100 years in a clockwork cycle, or will only happen once in every 100 year period. Think of it in terms of describing the severity of the event rather than anything to do with at what point they will happen in time.
edit ^ see above
It's probability...
Probably.
From a hydrologist via Twitter
@JakeZackAndy: 300mm rain
= 300,000,000 litres per km2
= 15 billion litres of water for a 50km2 catchment
He also points out that no fixed flood defences which are environmentally and financially feasible could possibly cope with that amount of water that quickly.
I'm sure that won't stop the media blaming the EA and other government agencies
aye 1mm of rain is a litre per square metre. So if the weatherman says 10mm of rain imagine 10 bottles of mineral water being poured over a small kitchen table (approx 1 square metre) - thats actually a lot of water to deal with. scaling it all up to the size of a river catchment gives you a ****load of h2o to deal with
Looks like here in Carlisle we're in for it again, already some flooding now but defences are due to be breached at 1am tonight. Major evacuations underway, good luck to all. 🙁
I couldn't agree less @moses The solution is not planting trees on high ground.
Suggest you read [url= http://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/NeilMcIntyreHoPJan2012r.pdf ]this.[/url] It's certainly not the whole answer, but can definitely play a part.
Good luck squire
Well, it looks like while the new defences in Keswick and Cockermouth have been over-topped, it would have been much worse without them. I'm told that this time there was no release of water from Thirlmere, which added a lot of water in 2009. Fingers crossed that the Main St of both towns will be up and running again much sooner than 2009.
What a day for the new Cyclewise shop to open in Cockermouth..... At least it's well above flood level.
Good to hear you're ok and relatively promising news boxelder. Saw a pic on FB a bit of the road between Grasmere and Keswick has totally collapsed - will be shut for a long while I think.
@zokes, thanks I have done, I agree in that it could make a difference. My gut feel is that modifcation of river flows and flood planes due to development is far more relevant than farming practices and high level tree removal/planting. That plus climate change leading to more intense rainfall thus changing what is "normal"
@box, yes indeed very tough for local business with Christmas shopping season in full swing