Oh bollocks…. they’re turning this into the Keir Starmer thread again, aren’t they?
Yes, but you keep falling for it! Don't poke the bear.
Tories want to stay in power. A newly elected leader even more so. An economic downturn that hits the worst off most isn't a time that the Tories don't mind "losing an election", they'll want to stay in government and make the most of it. An early election will only happen if Truss can be convinced by her people that she can win it. On current evidence, it looks like she's not in for that big a new leader bounce... and just getting barely ahead of Labour in the polls this autumn won't be enough for her to take a chance at the polls. Not least because of the unpredictability of what will happen in the areas of the country where there are seats the LibDems do better than Labour in, and where they could be the ones challenging sitting Conservative MPs.
Normally, you'd hope you could bait a new PM into seeking a fresh mandate, but she'll be sticking not twisting until 2024. She saw what happened to Theresa May, and it's quite possible we will have a few byelections in the autumn (Uxbridge?) which make the government's unpopularity obvious.
So, it will all be 'the government has to get on with the job, this is not the point for the disruption of an early election' while the damage continues.
truss won't go for an early GE; there's too much downside.
Her fresh economic start will be easily shredded - she's basing most of her crackpot ideas on patrick minford's work; few, if any, credible economists supporting her.
She is avoiding scrutiny by refusing to be interviewed - unlike sunak - as she cannot explain any of her economic 'thinking'.
This is easily exploited and weaponised against her.
There is no way she will jeapordise her occupancy of No 10.
To put into context some of the challenges faced by the next PM.
CEO of the Scottish Care Alliance on radio this morning - they are estimating perhaps half of their members care homes are under threat of closure THIS YEAR due to energy cost increase. They have 800 members of 1100 homes in Scotland.
One example of a home that may close in September, run by charity in the Highlands due to the huge energy cost increase. If that happens, and it looks likely, then the number of residents needing emergency beds & care by local NHS was greater than the total number of beds in the local hospital... The CEO was saying from a care / medical point of view, this could be as dramatic as when Covid kicked off and needed that level of response.
I look at Liz and Rishi and expect they have not a clue that these issues are there and need emergency and urgent response.
You can be absolutely sure that the Tories will have calculated what a catastrophic disaster it would have been to lose a general election to Jeremy Corbyn
And you can be sure they've calculated what a stratospheric disaster it was when May called a snap election as well.
I look at Liz and Rishi and expect they have not a clue that these issues are there and need emergency and urgent response.
Add to that the huge amount of businesses in the wider economy that will collapse due to increased costs and you've the perfect storm. Neither Rishi nor Truss look like they have the remotest appreciation of the scale of what's coming and from what we've seen of them, they certainly have no answers.
The problem here is that this will require huge government intervention. Something that Truss is fiercely ideologically opposed to
Neither Rishi nor Truss look like they have the remotest appreciation of the scale of what’s coming and from what we’ve seen of them, they certainly have no answers.
And neither does Starmer. Maybe he's keeping quiet deliberately but he's said nothing about how he would help businesses and prevent mass liquidations and the loss of millions of jobs. The public don't seem to have grasped it either. Everyone's focusing on the price cap and household bills when there is a much bigger danger out there.
Oh bollocks…. they’re turning this into the Keir Starmer thread again, aren’t they?
Fancy mentioning the current leader of the Labour Party on a political thread discussing potential prime ministers ..... whatever next eh?
You treat Starmer as if he doesn't exist binners, for very obvious reasons. But you are remarkably keen to talk about "Grandad" as you just have, despite the fact that he hasn't been leader for a couple of years now.
I'm never the one who brings the terrorist allotment-dweller* up though, am I?. That particular obsession I leave to you lot and your weird cult of non-personality as you all go misty-eyed about the glorious defeat of 2017
Anyway... can we please leave the leadership of the Labour Party to the thread specifically dedicated to the subject, that everyone but the same 5 repetitive posters expressly avoids for obvious reasons? Fanks.
*Terrorist Allotment-Dweller recorded a session for Marc Riley on 6 Music last week that is still available on BBC Sounds
Normally, you’d hope you could bait a new PM into seeking a fresh mandate,
I dont think any have ever baited into seeking a fresh mandate? Closest I think was May and that was only due to being in a weak position and seeing the polls saying she would end up with a huge majority. If she had had a reasonable majority its unlikely she would have risked it. As it was it pretty much a hail mary move.
Whilst I do think it would be in the tories long term interests to go for an early election I think a lot of tory MPs would prefer a couple more years than the massive gamble of getting another five. Even more so for her.
This is easily exploited and weaponised against her.
Yeah thats what people thought about brexit though. Who exactly is going to be doing this weaponisation?
Currently she is getting grief in the media whilst they try and get Sunak in instead. Once the contest is over the rightwing press will unite behind her and all the current stories will vanish at least for a few months possibly starting up again mid 23 if they want a leadership contest prior to the election.
But I think she would be daft not call a snap election if as is very likely she gets a bounce in the polls.
So what better time to lose a general election than now when Labour are led by a man who has promised not too shake things up too much, maintain the status quo, and will inherit an economic crisis unique in modern times?
But you're surmising there might be an election. We're in the business of speculation.
Are we not allowed to guess?
I'd rather a GE right now than this stupid leadership campaign and an absent govt.
Oh bollocks…. they’re turning this into the Keir Starmer thread again, aren’t they
One post about his lordship and the claws are out.
We can and will talk about Starmer in the context of the wider political landscape in this thread. Just like ****ing Brexit, inflation, Johnson, Cost of living, Economic collapse.
The problem here is that this will require huge government intervention. Something that Truss is fiercely ideologically opposed to
Of course. You get it! But the Tories will likely massage this eventually.
Like in the pandemic they might have been ideologically opposed to supporting the economy but Sunak found 450 billion down the back of the Q/E settee - (Fact of interest - that double the whole Labour budget for their entire first term for 2017 - which everyone said we couldn't afford.)
I'm saying Q/E *funded* ('cos its always funded before Q/E - but the Tories like the balance sheet of buying bonds with new money) state support - kicking Starmer's very short-term plan into the weeds.
It's a guess. Who knows.
Ok Reg. Solidarity, brother (and sister)...
..
they’re turning this into the Keir Starmer thread again, aren’t they?
Binners have you ever heard of the phrase 'cancel culture'? It's the modern name for the old practice of seeking to silence or censor the voices of those you don't like or agree with, and that's exactly what you're indulging in, along with many others on this forum. I know it's more normally used to silence those from the right wing end of the political spectrum, but here it's the other way round for some reason. It needs to stop quite frankly, and as the self appointed chief of thread police, you could be leading by example.
Oh, am I 'cancelling' you, comrade?
Do you not think you're being a tad melodramatic there?
😂
I’d rather a GE right now than this stupid leadership campaign and an absent govt.
Problem is the government would be absent for another month or two due to purdah as opposed to Johnson just not being arsed at the moment.
I wonder how Johnsons Shakespeare book is going. I assume thats what the taxpayer is paying him to do at the moment.
I think that when we have the mass protest on the scale of the poll tax riots, small businesses going bankrupt left, right and centre, people unable to heat their homes in the winter, massive inflation, strikes and a rise in unemployment, then they will no choice but to call an election.
There is a massive economic crisis coming and we are just sleep walking into it.
I think that when we have the mass protest on the scale of the poll tax riots, small businesses going bankrupt left, right and centre, people unable to heat their homes in the winter, massive inflation, strikes and a rise in unemployment, then they will no choice but to call an election.
Hmm, but then they'd be bound to loose, so my opinion is 'not'. And they'd not vote with a motion of no confidence either which is the only way the opposition can force one AFAIK so it's got to be REALLY quick, or not at all. My view is that the bounce the Guardian described won't be anything like as positive for Truss, given that we'll have already had the new price cap figures so that won't come to pass either.
(all speculation mind, I have absolutely no actual knowledge)
Hmm, but then they’d be bound to loose, so my opinion is ‘not’.
If the scenario gobuchul describes comes to pass - and it will if no action is taken on energy prices very quickly - then they won't be able to resist the tsunami of anger. They could try, but that will lead to a much darker place. No government anywhere has survived an economic collapse on scale of what is approaching.
Oh, am I ‘cancelling’ you, comrade?
Do you not think you’re being a tad melodramatic there?
Then simply ignore comments about Starmer! (But I'd listen up if I were you as I've said before Starmer's success is linked to the Tories failure.)
If the scenario gobuchul describes comes to pass – and it will if no action is taken on energy prices very quickly – then they won’t be able to resist the tsunami of anger.
There is absolutely no indication that anything meaningful is going to be done. This is the most right wing government this country has ever had.
The "market" must be left to do it's thing.
One post about his lordship and the claws are out.
It's not though, is it? Ernie shoehorn's Starmer in to virtually every post. He's obsessed!
Maybe we should take it in turns to post on the Starmer thread to keep you lot occupied?
the terrorist allotment-dweller
There are Daily Mail columnists who use more reasonable and rational language than you binners.
I have no idea whether Jeremy Corbyn has an allotment or not but how terribly gammony/redneck of you to think that accusing someone of having an allotment is some kind of insult. Which presumably is why you always tediously mention allotments every time you want to get into a rant about Corbyn.
My mum had an allotment for a while. During that time she was radicalised on Tik Tok*, joined ISIS and travelled to Syria to learn how to make IED's.
Coincidence?
Luckily we managed to distract her from violent Jihad by getting her to join the Ramblers instead, but the point still stands
*Radicalised on Tik Tok also recorded a session for Marc Riley on 6 music last week, still available on BBC Sounds
Ernie shoehorn’s Starmer in to virtually every post.
Virtually every post, without failure.
My mum had an allotment for a while
Is that your problem? Did you feel that your mum was neglecting you when she was attending her allotment - have you mentioned this to your therapist?
Some of the greatest Tory haters on stw appear, according to their own admission, to have committed Tory parents, I wonder if there is a pattern here which would interest psychotherapists?
Is you saying my mum is a Tory Jihadist*?
*Tory Jihadist also recorded a session for Marc Riley on 6 music last week, still available on BBC Sounds
It’s not though, is it? Ernie shoehorn’s Starmer in to virtually every post. He’s obsessed!
Maybe we should take it in turns to post on the Starmer thread to keep you lot occupied?
He's not obsessed he makes strong points by connecting the dots, referencing his logic. Very few posters do this. And his material isn't just an ongoing rant - which is extremely tedious but fine if someone wants to operate like that.
It's truly ridiculous to leave Starmer out a thread of this magnitude completely.
Is you saying my mum is a Tory Jihadist*?
I have no idea if your mum is a Tory but I can understand your pain if you felt that she was ignoring you whilst she spent hours tending to her allotment.
Please accept a virtual hug from me. And remember that crying is a good way to release pent up anger and frustration 💡
Crying on the Allotment is actually the working title for Tory Jihadists first album, due for release early December
Did she take you there?
Having a good cry on someone's shoulder would be better.
then they will no choice but to call an election.
Nah. They will brazen it out and use dead otter / cyclist number plates / lockdown party scandal / some distraction and hope no one notices.
Nah. They will brazen it out and use dead otter / cyclist number plates / lockdown party scandal / some distraction and hope no one notices.
The scale of the shit storm that is coming our way, will mean any dead cat scenario will simply be not enough.
Nah. They will brazen it out and use dead otter / cyclist number plates / lockdown party scandal / some distraction and hope no one notices.
Yeah, that and simple denial and lies. We've all seen over the last couple of year that they have no shame or inclination to morally do the right thing.
will mean any dead cat scenario will simply be not enough.
Implies that there is a strategy* beyond headlines in tomorrow morning's papers.
*Even if it's just one of deflection. I don't think this iteration of the Tories are capable of doing even that meagre task
Article in the FT yesterday on Young Conservatives. They featured a member who is 17. How can it be right to decide on the PM of the country without having the right to vote in a general election? To be fair, they probably don't have many adolescent voting members, but it seems odd.
Because they are voting for the leader of the party of which they are member.
The country voted the party in, not the individual leader, along whatever their party rules happen to be.
The Queen decides - and she's 96!
17 year old Tory boy decides who the party leader is, the same as in other political parties.
To be fair I prefer that to a directly universally elected leader.
I too am of the opinion that there won't be a snap election whoever wins and that they will be hamstrung by that decision. Whilst I;m sure Laboutr and Lib Dems will have been working on their manifest I doubt the same will be true of the tories given everything that has been going on, so realistically there couldn't be one until the end of October at the earlies and if your voters are elderly the last thing you ant is a winter election if you can avoid it. Waiting until early next year just piles on more and more pressure as fuel prices, inflation and no doubt strikes will be in full effect by then. All the time whoever wins will be getting beaten up by the "you don't have a mandate" question. I doubt the tory civil was will end either and we are the ones who will end up the losers!
To be fair, they probably don’t have many adolescent voting members, but it seems odd.
Supposed 1% are overseas members who may or may not have the right to vote in UK elections either.
Because they are voting for the leader of the party of which they are member.
I am familiar with the rules and universal adult suffrage, I just think that they should also should apply to political parties. A country has decided that adults are eligible to vote in a general election. Plenty of institutions have the same rules for voting vs. no voting membership.
One concern is in the coming custardfluck and in the knowledge of losing the next election, they'll pile in with a scorched earth radical privatisation policy shock doctrine stylee that leaves the next government politically hamstrung and with all the ordure to clear up. Labour doesn't have a very strong record of reversing Tory policies.
